Twins Daily Mock Draft v.3.0 (Dual Edition): Twins Pop Prep Pitcher

[Jeremy Nygaard]

The third mock featured here is our third annual dual mock draft done by Jamie Cameron and me. We alternated back and forth for the Top 39 selections in next month's draft. 

1. Cleveland Guardians - JJ Wetherholt, 2B, West Virginia 
There have been murmuring the Guardians are exploring a haircut with Wetherholt and Griffin in the mix (JC)

2. Cincinnati Reds - Charlie Condon, OF/1B, Georgia
Whoa, I think the Reds will stay true to their board and it is a toss up for me whether that would be Condon or Bazzana. Works great for Cincinnati, who get their pick of the litter. (JN)

3. Colorado Rockies - Chase Burns, RHP, Wake Forest
The Rockies would have to weigh Bazzana here, but I think given their pitching development struggles, Burns is too enticing to pass up (JC)

4. Oakland Athletics - Travis Bazzana, 2B, Oregon State
The A’s need all the help they can get and this would have to be close to the ideal scenario. A Wilson/Bazzana middle infield would be a solid roll of the dice. See what I did there? (JN)

5. Chicago White Sox - Braden Montgomery, OF, Texas A&M
Lots of mock drafts have the Sox taking Cags. I think Montgomery is a safer and, in their case, better pick as they will pick at ten in 2025 despite their record (JC)

6. Kansas City Royals - Konnor Griffin, OF, Jackson Prep HS, (MS)
The Royals could go in a few directions, but here they pop the top prep on the board. (JN)

7. St. Louis Cardinals - Hagen Smith, LHP, Arkansas
This is a great outcome for the Cardinals, who have done well with pitching development and nab arguably the top arm in the class, a lefty to boot. (JC)

8. Los Angeles Angels - Jac Caglianone, 1B/LHP, Florida
Doesn’t fit the profile that I try to match with the Angels - first guy to the bigs! But Cags in L.A. makes sense. And if there’s a team that knows a thing or two about a two-way player… (JN)

9. Pittsburgh Pirates - James Tibbs III, OF, Florida State
There’s all kinds of steam on Tibbs in the top ten. It’s a little rich for me with the lack of other strong tools to accrue value outside the bat. (JC)

10. Washington Nationals - Nick Kurtz, 1B, Wake Forest
It’s possible Kurtz falling this far makes nine teams look bad. But in a draft where it’s a ton of college hitters, it’s whatever flavor of the day for every team. (JN)

11. Detroit Tigers - Bryce Rainer, SS, Harvard Westlake HS (CA)
I can see Detroit going a number of directions here. They made out from the prep class in 2023, and Rainer at 11 feels like good value. (JC)

12. Boston Red Sox - Christian Moore, 2B, Tennessee
He’s doing things in the College World Series that have put him on this meteoric rise, which makes sense. Too bad for lower teams hoping he’d fall. (JN)

13. San Francisco Giants - Cam Caminiti, LHP, Saguaro HS (AZ)
Caminiti has plenty of suitors, some inside the top ten. I don’t think he’s getting past the teens. (JC)

14. Chicago Cubs - Trey Yesavage, RHP, East Carolina
The Cubs would probably feel pretty fortunate to have the third best college pitcher still available when they come on the clock. (JN)

15. Seattle Mariners - Seaver King, INF, Wake Forest
This feels like ‘no man’s land’ for Seattle. They leaned prep early last year, but I’m not sure there are prep bats that make sense here, so we’re blending production and upside with King. (JC)

16. Miami Marlins - Ryan Waldschmidt, OF, Kentucky
Marlins seem connected to college hitters and Waldschmidt is one of the best left. (JN) 

17. Milwaukee Brewers - Cameron Smith, 3B, Florida State
Smith feels like he fits the Brewers bat traits well. Some positional value, the most improved bat in college baseball, and a good blend of hit and power is good value at 17. (JC)

18. Tampa Bay Rays - Carson Benge, OF, Tampa Bay
Considered a number of names here, but Benge is the best on the board. (JN)

19. New York Mets - Dakota Jordan, OF, Mississippi State
The Mets have strengthened their farm significantly recently, and are leaning into athletic traits. That fits Jordan perfectly (JC)

20. Toronto Blue Jays - Tommy White, 3B, LSU
There are about twenty names that make sense in this area, so Toronto is getting the most well-known position prospect on the lot. (JN)

21. Minnesota Twins - William Schmidt, RHP, Catholic HS (LA)
I haven’t seen a ton of steam connecting the Twins and Schmidt, but they work quietly. Drafting a prep arm at 21 is definitely a possibility and there’s precedent with Chase Petty a few years ago. Schmidt is up to 98 mph and has the best curveball in the class. (JC)

22. Baltimore Orioles - Vance Honeycutt, OF, North Carolina
Certainly some offensive concerns, but he helped his stock in the College World Series and is worth the risk at this point in the draft. (JN)

23. Los Angeles Dodgers - Kellon Lindsey, Hardee HS (FL)
Lindsey is one of the best athletes in the class having earned Trea Turner comps with double-plus speed. (JC)

24. Atlanta Braves - Jurrangelo Cijntje, SWP, Mississippi State
Wouldn’t be too surprised if they went the prep route here, but feel like they’d be happy if Cijntje fell to them. (JN)

25. San Diego Padres - Kash Mayfield, LHP, Elk City HS, (OK)
The Padres have been close to a lock for a prep first rounder for a number of years. They love taking prep arms and Mayfield has the best delivery in the draft class. (JC)

26. New York Yankees - Billy Amick, 3B, Tennessee
The Yankees can go a few different routes here, but Amick has moved up boards and this seems like a good fit. (JN)

27. Philadelphia Phillies - PJ Morlando, OF/1B, Summerville HS (SC)
Morlando has dropped a little since pre-season but it’s still a potential plus hit, plus power combo. He put on a show at the Combine this week. The Phillies aren’t risk averse. (JC)

28. Houston Astros - Brody Brecht, RHP, Iowa
The sense is that the Astros go hitter, but you can only let a pitcher like Brecht fall so far before you have to reconsider. (JN)

29. Arizona Diamondbacks - Slade Caldwell, OF, Valley View HS (AR)
Caldwell is good value at this spot. The Diamondback have consistently drafted undersized players. Caldwell has tons of tools to make an impact. (JC)

30. Texas Rangers - Malcolm Moore, C, Stanford
It’s only a matter of time before the catchers start to go. I feel like this is later than the first one will actually go, but once one comes off the board, I have to think the other two follow relatively quickly. (JN)

31. Arizona Diamondbacks - Walker Janek, C, Sam Houston State
Janek is my favorite, and the best defensive catcher in the draft. It’s a chance for average hit, power, and an above average defender behind the plate. That’s a ten year MLB career.(JC)

32. Baltimore Orioles - Braylon Doughty, RHP, Chaparral HS (CA)
After getting a college hitter with their first pick, the Orioles will back that up with an overslot prep pitcher. (JN)

33. Minnesota Twins - Kaelen Culpepper, SS, Kansas State
Culpepper had a tremendous post-season after making some swing changes, clubbing a three run home run off Hagen Smith and hitting for the cycle. It’s a really solid offensive and athletic profile. I thought about prep shortstops Theo Gillen and Tyson Lewis at this spot (JC)

34. Milwaukee Brewers - Joey Oakie, RHP, Ankeny Centennial HS (IA)
Similar to last year, the Brewers will take a prep pitcher in the comp round.

35. Arizona Diamondbacks - Tyson Lewis, SS, Millard West HS (NE)
The Diamondbacks are known to be in on Lewis. They control this part of the draft with three picks in quick succession. Lewis has a chance for plus speed and power and has been a strong spring riser this year (JC)

36. Cleveland Guardians - Ryan Sloan, RHP, York Community HS (IL)
You don’t cut an underslot deal with Wetherholt and not back that up with an overslot prep pitcher. (JN)

37. Pittsburgh Pirates - Theo Gillen, SS, Westlake HS, (TX)
This is an unbelievable value at this point. Gillen will get consideration in the teens. It’s arguably the third best prep bat. He’s not a shortstop but it’s good hit and power tools from the left side. (JC)

38. Colorado Rockies - Jonathan Santucci, LHP, Duke
I will always believe taking a pitcher is the best option for the Rockies and they can walk away with two of the top five collegiate arms if it falls this way. (JN)

39. Kansas City Royals - Carter Johnson, SS, Oxford HS, (MS)
The Royals need to continue taking shots on upside in a weak farm system. Johnson has a really solid profile with a good hit tool and a strong chance to stick at short. (JC)

 

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Find more draft coverage here:

2024 MLB Draft Position Previews: Prep Pitchers

2024 MLB Draft Position Previews: College Pitchers

2024 MLB Draft Position Previews: First Basemen

2024 MLB Draft Position Previews: Second Basemen

2024 MLB Draft Position Previews: Midwest Highlights

2024 MLB Draft Position Previews: Third Basemen

2024 MLB Draft Position Previews: Shortstops

2024 MLB Draft Position Previews: Catcher

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[Cory Engelhardt]

This would be a really fun outcome for the Twins. 

[Mike Sixel]

Strongly opposed to HS pitchers. They almost never, ever, work. 

[Dman]

If I'm the Mets and I like those traits why not Honeycutt who has a slightly worse hit tool, equal power, and elite centerfield defense.  I don't see it, but hey you never know.  If you don't believe in Honeycutt's bat then that would be a close comp.

With my favorites Benge and Waldschmidt already gone my next picks would be high school bats Gillen and Caldwell. Gillen has the contact rates and power the Twins love and he even has something they generally ignore which is speed.  Caldwell doesn't have the power the Twins usually crave but I hear his makeup is off the charts which the Twins love.  Grabbing players with up the middle potential makes the most sense to me.

It seems like some boards I am seeing have Sloan and Mayfield ahead of Schmidt right now so am curious why you chose him at 21.  I heard Sloan was hitting 100 on the gun.  Mayfield seems more about being a lefty, but he is a good one.  I just don't see the Twins pulling the trigger on an arm at 21, but they could have their pick of the best high school arms in that spot if they choose to take on that kind of risk. So I get where you are coming from.

Culpepper is decent value taken at 33, but why go with a potential fast moving college bat there with mainly average tools and below average power with Gillen and Lewis there?  We have a ton of guys like Culpepper in the system and you might find something similar into the second round. With the lack of power (although bat speed is good) Culpepper doesn't seem like a Twins pick IMO.  Gillen has a plus hit tool, plus power and plus speed and could play center.  Lewis Has better speed and possibly better power and can likely stick at short.  I'd rather have your second picks for that spot than your first one. The Twins infield is full at the major league level they can afford to wait for HS talent to bubble up.

I will say from what I am reading Caldwell seems to be falling into the comp round, but with the O's and Arizona having multiple picks I could see them popping him just before pick 33.  Gillen seems to be as high as the Mariner's pick to the low 20's.  I don't think he makes the comp round.

I just don't trust HS arms.  Enlow had that plus, plus curve and it never worked out.  Granted he didn't have a 98mph fastball either.  Stewart threw really hard, but didn't work out.  There's a reason lot's of teams don't like to go HS pitcher early in the draft.  A lot of the times those arms just break down and you get nothing.

Also when you look at the Twins system they are in need of elite bats.  The starting pitching across the levels has been pretty outstanding for the most part with low A being a bit more variable.  The Twins also have been good at identifying good arms later in the draft but almost no bats past the second round make it.  I'd go bat's early unless they aren't viewed as difference making.  Gotta believe at 21 there will be something good there. I would also like to see them go with HS players with the exception of Waldschmidt or Benge who could be fast moving outfielders as we seem a bit light on outfield talent right now at the upper levels.

[Jamie Cameron]

25 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Strongly opposed to HS pitchers. They almost never, ever, work. 

Any sweeping generalizations like this RE the draft should be disregarded. 
 

[Cory Engelhardt]

9 minutes ago, Jamie Cameron said:

Any sweeping generalizations like this RE the draft should be disregarded. 
 

I certainly trust the infrastructure of the Twins pitching development staff a LOT more than say when Kohl Stewart or Alex Meyer were in our system.

IF the Twins do take a pitcher, either high school or college, at either 21 or 33 (or frankly at any point in the draft) I think they have shown enough so far to say that the pitcher is in good hands here.

[Mike Sixel]

18 minutes ago, Jamie Cameron said:

Any sweeping generalizations like this RE the draft should be disregarded. 
 

Look at the stats. There's a reason teams avoid them. There are numerous articles about this on the Internet. It's not me saying this, it's professionals like Keith Law and the fangraphs people. 

[Tibs]

I'm a bit wary of drafting a high school pitcher this early but the current stuff and potential would be exciting.

[SaberNerd]

HS Pitchers are definitely the least likely group to work out, but you don't value picks on a binary good/bad.  They became (rightfully) hated when teams were consistently drafting them in the top 10, but at some point once they fall far enough the reward becomes enough to take the high risk.

[Cory Engelhardt]

10 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Look at the stats. There's a reason teams avoid them. There are numerous articles about this on the Internet. It's not me saying this, it's professionals like Keith Law and the fangraphs people. 

It's taking a chance, for sure. College position players generally have the best chance of making it to the majors, but even they are not guaranteed.

But yeah, generally right handed prep pitching has been the toughest group to gauge overall. Doesn't mean it WON'T work, but the odds are higher. 

[Mike Sixel]

7 minutes ago, SaberNerd said:

HS Pitchers are definitely the least likely group to work out, but you don't value picks on a binary good/bad.  They became (rightfully) hated when teams were consistently drafting them in the top 10, but at some point once they fall far enough the reward becomes enough to take the high risk.

sure, just not round 1......you are looking at such a tiny chance of it working, can you really not take a player 10x more likely to work out in round 1? I think the math there is easy.

[Jamie Cameron]

26 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Look at the stats. There's a reason teams avoid them. There are numerous articles about this on the Internet. It's not me saying this, it's professionals like Keith Law and the fangraphs people. 

Thanks Mike. I'll make sure I do my research next time.

[Tibs]

51 minutes ago, Jamie Cameron said:

Any sweeping generalizations like this RE the draft should be disregarded. 
 

I mean, weird response.

Sure, the Twins can't just completely ignore an entire position group for a draft. Let's not pretend the organization has a remotely good track record with drafting HS pitchers the last ~10 years.

HS pitchers drafted by the Twins and signed since 2013:

Chase Petty

Marco Raya

Regi Grace

Landon Leach

Blayne Enlow

Jordan Balazovic

Tyler Benninghoff

Matt Jones

Jovani Moran

Kohl Stewart

Stephen Gonsalves

Seth Wagner

 

I apologize if I missed any. Not exactly a list of who's who

[Jamie Cameron]

13 minutes ago, Tibs said:

I mean, weird response.

Sure, the Twins can't just completely ignore an entire position group for a draft. Let's not pretend the organization has a remotely good track record with drafting HS pitchers the last ~10 years.

HS pitchers drafted by the Twins and signed since 2013:

Chase Petty

Marco Raya

Regi Grace

Landon Leach

Blayne Enlow

Jordan Balazovic

Tyler Benninghoff

Matt Jones

Jovani Moran

Kohl Stewart

Stephen Gonsalves

Seth Wagner

 

I apologize if I missed any. Not exactly a list of who's who

He said 'prep pitchers almost never work', I didn't say anything about the Twins specifically. I just have a challenge with big generalizations with no data to back them up. FWIW with your list, I wouldn't include anyone from the previous regime's picks. Not debating that the Twins don't have a great record.

[Mike Sixel]

20 minutes ago, Jamie Cameron said:

Thanks Mike. I'll make sure I do my research next time.

Why are we being confrontational, when we are simply disagreeing about a draft strategy? I love your work, doesn't mean I can't disagree with it, does it? I'm really baffled by your tone here, both posts. I thought we were having a conversation about draft strategy, not equal rights for all.

[Dman]

On 6/24/2024 at 11:08 AM, Cory Engelhardt said:

I certainly trust the infrastructure of the Twins pitching development staff a LOT more than say when Kohl Stewart or Alex Meyer were in our system.

IF the Twins do take a pitcher, either high school or college, at either 21 or 33 (or frankly at any point in the draft) I think they have shown enough so far to say that the pitcher is in good hands here.

I think we all agree that the Twins have done well developing pitching in the system the larger question is where to take it (i,e. risk factor). I don't think pick 21 is the place and maybe not even pick 33.

In 2017 they took two high school arms fairly high in Leach (2) and Enlow (3) who turned out in that draft? Yep at pick 12 Bailey Ober.

2018 they only took bats high.

2019 they took Canterino in the 2nd round and so far he hasn't done anything.  Who has? Sawyer Gipson Long at number 6. Brent Headrick number 9.  Louie Varland number 13.

2020 they took no pitcher's high but did grab Raya in the 4th round which looks like a good pick but have to wait and see yet.

2021 Chase Petty 1st round.  I liked the pick and he was enough to get us Gray and a comp pick but he is struggling at the AA level right now.  Still plenty of time to change that as he is young for the level, but since traded he won't be developed in MN.  2nd round pick Hajjar who is also struggling as a reliever and on the might not make it train.  Who worked out? Number 13 David Festa and he is the only one on a top 100 list.

2022 Connor Prielipp an arm I believed in has barely pitched and with a second TJ the arm just might not hold up. Whose working their way through the levels. Matthews who also is on a top 100 list was picked in the 8th round.  Lewis the 9th.  Culpepper the 13th.  Morris the 4th round.

Who has worked out bat wise?  Lewis at number 1 and you could say Rooker at Comp A though he was traded away. Larnach in the 1st round, Jeffers in the second round in 2018. In 2019 Cavaco is a first round bust and Comp A Wallner is a question mark but has made it to the Majors.  2020 Sabato 1st round unlikely to work out but still there. 2021 Miller Comp A who is only 21 and an elite defender with questionable bat traded away. 2022 Brooks Lee 1st round, Tanner Schobel round 2. 2023 Walker Jenkins 1st round and Keaschall in the second round.

The thing is for the bats that the Twins have taken they have no one outside the first two rounds that made it other than 3rd round Steer and 4th round CES which is still pretty high compared to where they have gotten arms to work.  Oh and unicorn Jullien who fell on draft day and the Twins found third or fourth round money to sign him. Still when you get out of those top rounds the bats just generally aren't good enough. Yet as you can see the Twins seem to have found one or more arms outside the top two rounds virtually every year. And those later picks seem to be outperforming the earlier pitcher picks anyway.

So given the trends I don't think going pitcher early gives you the best odds of maximizing your draft class and balancing your system needs. At least not from what I am seeing from 2017 on. High school pitcher is the greatest risk\reward in the draft and the low success rates means you need to choose your spots carefully IMO.  With the Twins success with arms later in the draft I would stick to bats early.

[Jamie Cameron]

20 minutes ago, Dman said:

I think we all agree that the Twins have done well developing pitching in the system the larger question is where to take it (i,e. risk factor). I don't think pick 21 is the place and maybe not even pick 33.

In 2017 they took two high school arms fairly high in Leach (2) and Enlow (3) who turned out in that draft? Yep at pick 17 Bailey Ober.

2018 they only took bats high.

2019 they took Canterino in the 2nd round and so far he hasn't done anything.  Who has? Sawyer Gipson Long at number 6. Brent Headrick number 9.  Louie Varland number 13.

2020 they took no pitcher's high but did grab Raya in the 4th round which looks like a good pick but have to wait and see yet.

2021 Chase Petty 1st round.  I liked the pick and he was enough to get us Gray and a comp pick but he is struggling at the AA level right now.  Still plenty of time to change that as he is young for the level, but since traded he won't be developed in MN.  2nd round pick Hajjar who is also struggling as a reliever and on the might not make it train.  Who worked out? Number 13 David Festa and he is the only one on a top 100 list.

2022 Connor Prielipp an arm I believed in has barely pitched and with a second TJ the arm just might not hold up. Whose working their way through the levels. Matthews who also is on a top 100 list was picked in the 8th round.  Lewis the 9th.  Culpepper the 13th.  Morris the 4th round.

Who has worked out bat wise?  Lewis at number 1 and you could say Rooker at Comp A though he was traded away. Jeffers in the second round in 2018. In 2019 Cavaco is a first round bust and Comp A Wallner is a question mark but has made it to the Majors.  2020 Sabato 1st round unlikely to work out but still there. 2021 Miller Comp A who is only 21 and an elite defender with questionable bat traded away. 2022 Brooks Lee 1st round, Tanner Schobel round 2. 2023 Walker Jenkins 1st round and Keaschall in the second round.

The thing is for the bats that the Twins have taken they have no one outside the first two rounds that made it other than 3rd round Steer and 4th round CES which is still pretty high compared to where they have gotten arms to work.  Oh and unicorn Jullien who fell on draft day and the Twins found third or fourth round money to sign him. Still when you get out of those top rounds the bats just generally aren't good enough. Yet as you can see the Twins seem to have found one or more arms outside the top two rounds virtually every year. And those later picks seem to be outperforming the earlier pitcher picks anyway.

So given the trends I don't think going pitcher early gives you the best odds of maximizing your draft class and balancing your system needs. At least not from what I am seeing from 2017 on. High school pitcher is the greatest risk\reward in the draft and the low success rates means you need to choose your spots carefully IMO.  With the Twins success with arms later in the draft I would stick to bats early.

Agreed it'll most likely be a college bat/prep bat first, and with the majority of their day one picks. Just don't think it's outside the realm of possibility that it's a prep arm given that there's a number in that range. Only 20 days until we find out!

[Dman]

3 minutes ago, Jamie Cameron said:

Agreed it'll most likely be a college bat/prep bat first, and with the majority of their day one picks. Just don't think it's outside the realm of possibility that it's a prep arm given that there's a number in that range. Only 20 days until we find out!

Yep as I said earlier at 21 they get their pick of the highly rated high school arms.  If they grab one there I just hope it works out well. Not that it probably matters but if they do go high school pitcher there they are going to have to deal with comparison's to Petty who they traded to get Gray.  Might be easier to just take bats at 21 and 33 to avoid any scrutiny if Petty turns out well and the pick doesn't. 

[Jamie Cameron]

38 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Why are we being confrontational, when we are simply disagreeing about a draft strategy? I love your work, doesn't mean I can't disagree with it, does it? I'm really baffled by your tone here, both posts. I thought we were having a conversation about draft strategy, not equal rights for all.

Apologies if this was a little aggressive. To me, your post read as if I haven't thought much/researched much about the Twins pick/draft tendencies etc. which isn't the case. Disagree all you like. I don't think a prep pitcher at 21 is likely fwiw (much more so at 33 or 60), just wanted to explore it given it's happened before and folks like to ascribe the Twins college hitters often without much analysis of if that's what they actually tend to do.

[SaberNerd]

I took a look at the top pitchers since 2010 by fWAR.  Of the top 20 pitchers

• 17 were drafted
• 13 were 1st round picks
• Only 2 were taken outside the top 60 picks. (deGrom, Kluber).  Fun fact, both were pitchers at Stetson
• Only 3 were outside the 40 picks.
• 2 were signed as international FA.  The remaining 1 was Yu Darvish

The Twins have done a great job of drafting college pitchers late and haven't had a ton of success drafting pitchers early.  But if you want to get an elite pitcher (and we know we won't sign one with this ownership) the other options are to trade or draft a pitcher in the 1st round.  

 

In terms of this mock, I'd rather go hitter/pitcher than pitcher/hitter (unless the Twins think they can fix Brecht).  I have a feeling none of Caldwell/Lindsey/Morlando/Gillen/Lewis will be available at 33, while a top prep arm will be.

[Mike Sixel]

20 minutes ago, Jamie Cameron said:

Apologies if this was a little aggressive. To me, your post read as if I haven't thought much/researched much about the Twins pick/draft tendencies etc. which isn't the case. Disagree all you like. I don't think a prep pitcher at 21 is likely fwiw (much more so at 33 or 60), just wanted to explore it given it's happened before and folks like to ascribe the Twins college hitters often without much analysis of if that's what they actually tend to do.

That wasn't my intent. I don't want a HS pitcher early. Nothing more or less. 

[Dman]

15 minutes ago, SaberNerd said:

In terms of this mock, I'd rather go hitter/pitcher than pitcher/hitter (unless the Twins think they can fix Brecht).  I have a feeling none of Caldwell/Lindsey/Morlando/Gillen/Lewis will be available at 33, while a top prep arm will be.

I agree.  For me it depends on what is available at 33 to go arm.  I know it is subjective but MLB.com only has about 40 players with above average hit tools.  So finding another elite bat outside pick 33 could be tough.  Granted bats they have rated at 50 the Twins might see as plus and I don't have a ton of resources to use for my opinions.

Long story long I guess I am saying unless there is an arm I really love still there at 33 I think I still go bat there, because there might not be any worth picking at 60 and 69.  Bats have to be really, really good to make it and zone awareness and contact skills, you seem to have it or you don't.  Arms seems to have a greater variability for the development path and you can take more of them because most bats don't work out after round 2.

Still I could see the Twins balance the picks going bat, arm, bat arm.  Like you I just don't see them going arm first.  Who knows what they want to do and what info they have to tip the scales to pitcher first, but there are going to be good bats at 21.

[DocBauer]

All it takes is 1 HS arm that the Twins are in love with and there's your prep arm at 21. They did it with Petty. It just doesn't feel like their preferred MO, and it sounds like there are a lot of good HS arms through the 2nd round.

Nothing against Culpepper, I just don't see the fit even though there is a recent precident for college INF early. 

Love the ideal of Caldwell to be our future CF and provide hit, speed, and defense. I wouldn't object at all on Brecht if he really slid that far. Control issues or not, his arm is dynamic. Potential contact issues notwithstanding, Honeycutt is tempting. Does he have the highest upside of any position player at that point in the draft?

I'm saying position player at 21, and I can see it being a prep SS to help getting an eventual successor for Correa. I think a SS is one of the first 2 picks. Yes, I do think they will grab a HS arm...maybe 2...but it will be at 33 or one of the 2nd rounders. 

[Dman]

To get back to your draft I have been hearing Wetherholt to the Guardians as well which would be a genius move IMO.  They could probably shave 2M off that pick and buy somebody down the board. Wetherholt seems destined for pick 5 or below so should cut a nice deal and his bat isn't that far off from Bazana. 

I wouldn't be surprised if it was a prep pitcher but given Cleveland's difficult time finding bats I wouldn't be surprised if they pulled a big bat down the board either.  Maybe Gillen or Caldwell?  College bat then HS bat would be a nice way to round it out with maybe some money left over for prep pitcher in the 2nd round as they draft again at 48.

OK after a quick check of their farm they have more top 30 bats than arms.  System looks a bit depleted on arms. so likely arm in comp A and second round.  Man Cleveland is going to be a good team for a very long time.

FWIW I would hate to see Cleveland land Sloan.  He is my favorite type of pitcher. 6'5" plus fastball, plus changeup, possible plus slider.  Cleveland loves arms with good changeups.  You could be spot on with this pick if they go Wetherholt. He might be their future ace for years to come.

[SwainZag]

13 hours ago, Dman said:

I think we all agree that the Twins have done well developing pitching in the system the larger question is where to take it (i,e. risk factor). I don't think pick 21 is the place and maybe not even pick 33.

In 2017 they took two high school arms fairly high in Leach (2) and Enlow (3) who turned out in that draft? Yep at pick 17 Bailey Ober.

 

They took Ober with their 12th round pick in 2017, just fyi.  

[DJL44]

Bats rounds 1-2, pitchers rounds 3-10. Like almost every pick from rounds 3-10.

[gman]

Seems to me the title of this round was prep pitchers with the 21st pick. That said I would much prefer a pitcher that could be a high powered arm, even if bullpen only, then a utility infielder who can't hit or a slow, slugger for first base.