Rate the Outfielders

[ashbury]

"Line them up and choose for yourself. "  TD poster tony&rodney posed this thought in the discussion on Austin Martin (concerning who else on the roster is a worse defensive outfielder).  I have thoughts on that - don't we all?  I doubt we'll reach full and complete consensus, but maybe some useful insights will develop.

Being the kind who likes to break down questions, I thought of 5 general attributes I want in a center fielder.  It helps to define your terms, especially when each term is fuzzy at best.

• Range. Not quite equivalent to foot-speed in all aspects of the game but close.  Getting a quick start overlaps with routes.
• Routes. Often range and routes are lumped together, because a lousy route reduces the range. I still feel like it's something that can be split into parts.
• Arm. Unlike the above two, I lump together arm strength and arm accuracy, because, although arms are important in CF, they're still secondary to other skills.
• At the Wall. Maybe there's a better term, but by this I mean long, difficult flies. Who do I trust to gather it in? Range is great, but you have to close the deal. 
• Judgment. Some of that overlaps with At the Wall, but I also mean knowing when to dive and when to play safe. Texas leaguers.  Also, general game smarts.  Throwing to the wrong base goes here, not under "arm."

I use a 1-5 rating scale, 5 high.  Conceptually '3' is major league average. However, that would be for a corner outfielder, as 3's across the board might be someone's average left fielder, while the grading curve is steeper for center field, and all 3's would likely be a defensive liability.  For whatever that's worth.  Just to set a common frame of discussion.

I list the 8 outfielders, not just CF, who have played this season.  (They're pretty much played everywhere - 4 in CF, 5 in RF, 6 in LF.)  I also include Michael A Taylor, because I really enjoyed his defense last season, and between him and Byron Buxton they set the recent gold standard for Twins CF play that others need to aspire to

I'm sure there will be dissent.  What do you see  as the worst over-ratings or under-ratings, in the table below?

I'll confess that Martin's my whipping-boy, and I hate his arm, and his judgment coming in, and his technique on difficult long flies.

I also give Margot maybe more credit than he deserves, or has shown me, because he did have this reputation for quality.  Maybe he lost it all.

The bottom line, for me, is that the discussion about CF backup behind Buxton is complex only because all the options are lousy.

You don't actually need these numbers or this breakdown to come to that conclusion.  But I am me, and always will be.    😀

 

Buxton  MAT     Kepler  Willi   Martin  Margot  Kirill  Larn    Wallner

  5       5       4       3       4       3       2       1       1        Range

  5       5       5       3       2       3       2       2       2        Routes

  4       4       4       2       1       2       3       2       4        Arm

  4       5       5       3       1       3       2       2       2        At the Wall

  5       4       5       3       2       2       2       2       2        Judgment

 

 

 

[FlyingFinn]

Interesting exercise. You must downgrade Wallner's arm on accuracy? The one area I disagree on is judgment. I think Larnach and Kirilloff use good judgment (throw to the right bases), just may not physically be able to get to some balls. I thought Larnach's arm was okay last year, throwing out a few runners. I give Castro 1's for routes and judgment. Throwing the ball in the stands like he did is bad and not knowing how many outs there are is a lot worse, after I haven't liked how he throws to the wrong base at times (probably have his range higher as I think he covers ground when he runs the right route). Nitpicking as I agree with much of your chart. Thanks for posting.

[tony&rodney]

Eventually, MLB will get interns to film, time, record, and diagram every ball to the outfield mathematically such as the information on outfielders will be as precise as swing speed and pitcher's velocity. Then people who need to see the degrees of variance from a perfect route along with reaction time, etc. will be able to pore over more math. There is already a trove of information but the absolute mathematical takeover of outfield defense has not yet been perfected.

Until then us commoners will need to rely on our decades of experience as viewers, players, and coaches. The Twins miss Michael A. Taylor when Buxton goes down. I'm sure others will have their own ideas on the relative strengths and weaknesses of the current group of Twins outfielders, but I generally agree with your list.

[Riverbrian]

I'm not using any metrics but as far as I can tell without them... Castro's arm has to be better than a 2.  

[Mike Sixel]

Wallner has a five arm....

[RpR]

1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

Wallner has a five arm....

NO because unlike Ashbury's standard --  no matter how strong an arm is, if the receiver has/d to go chasing where the ball will land or worse chasing the ball after it lands, how strong the arm is is meaningless and Wallner is NOT accurate.

[jaimedude]

Why after two years do we think Kiersey OF of the Saints has not gotten a shot. Lack of power, lack of arm. I know he isn't on 40 man. Is there a 60 day IL we can put someone on? Lewis will miss more than 60 days Topa too. Seems like it is tone after the gaffes in outfield someone gets shot. 

[tony&rodney]

29 minutes ago, jaimedude said:

Why after two years do we think Kiersey OF of the Saints has not gotten a shot. Lack of power, lack of arm. I know he isn't on 40 man. Is there a 60 day IL we can put someone on? Lewis will miss more than 60 days Topa too. Seems like it is tone after the gaffes in outfield someone gets shot. 

A number of people have wondered about Kiersey Jr.  He is a late bloomer (not young) and extremely prone to striking out. It does seem like his defense in the outfield, which looks above average for sure, could help the Twins. He also is also quite speedy and seems like a decent baserunner. The average is good this year and includes power. The Twins  outfield defense looks like it needs some relief. At this point I'm not sure how Kiersey, Jr. would hurt the team.

[Linus]

I don’t know about the ratings because good outfield play is subtle. Get a good jump and run a great route to the ball. In addition to his speed Buck is really good at this. The others are not. I really like Castro but I’ve seen multiple balls drop that Buck would have put in his hip pocket. Kep isn’t that fast but generally takes good routes and doesn’t make foolish decisions. I think Castro will be good with experience but still has work to do. The others are all below average with a ceiling of average. It’s a derivative of Falvines drafting strategy of just acquiring bats with little regard to fielding or overall athleticism. 

[bean5302]

6 hours ago, jaimedude said:

Why after two years do we think Kiersey OF of the Saints has not gotten a shot. Lack of power, lack of arm. I know he isn't on 40 man. Is there a 60 day IL we can put someone on? Lewis will miss more than 60 days Topa too. Seems like it is tone after the gaffes in outfield someone gets shot. 

 

5 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

A number of people have wondered about Kiersey Jr.  He is a late bloomer (not young) and extremely prone to striking out. It does seem like his defense in the outfield, which looks above average for sure, could help the Twins. He also is also quite speedy and seems like a decent baserunner. The average is good this year and includes power. The Twins  outfield defense looks like it needs some relief. At this point I'm not sure how Kiersey, Jr. would hurt the team.

Keirsey's glove isn't any better than Martin's in center field based on the metrics which are available.
Career RF/9, FP% CF Keirsey = 2.47, .992 vs. Martin 2.50, .993

Keirsey's bat is also pretty questionable. He's hitting well this year, but the track record on the 27 year old's hitting profile isn't good, including a below average run last year at AAA. It's possible he could get added to the 40 man and get some time this year, but I think it's highly likely Keirsey is just another Andrew Stephenson type. 

[RpR]

Keirsey

Martin

[tony&rodney]

21 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

 

Keirsey's glove isn't any better than Martin's in center field based on the metrics which are available.
Career RF/9, FP% CF Keirsey = 2.47, .992 vs. Martin 2.50, .993

Keirsey's bat is also pretty questionable. He's hitting well this year, but the track record on the 27 year old's hitting profile isn't good, including a below average run last year at AAA. It's possible he could get added to the 40 man and get some time this year, but I think it's highly likely Keirsey is just another Andrew Stephenson type. 

I guess my only thought in response is to repeat what I said before, I'm not sure how Kiersey Jr. would hurt the team. 

I do believe his hitting is questionable but my eyes tell me his is a better defender than Martin. To be clear I'm not down on Martin but he isn't playing so perhaps another guy might get a chance. Overall the thought of adding Kiersey Jr. is indeed questionable. I'm not actually surprised by the shoddy outfield play by the Twins because this is the team Falvey put together.

[Greglw3]

19 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

 

Keirsey's glove isn't any better than Martin's in center field based on the metrics which are available.
Career RF/9, FP% CF Keirsey = 2.47, .992 vs. Martin 2.50, .993

Keirsey's bat is also pretty questionable. He's hitting well this year, but the track record on the 27 year old's hitting profile isn't good, including a below average run last year at AAA. It's possible he could get added to the 40 man and get some time this year, but I think it's highly likely Keirsey is just another Andrew Stephenson type. 

How much film have you watched on Keirsey? Thanks to Tom Froemming, I’ve seen a lot.

My assessment is superb defensive CF. He hit a lot in AA last year and he’s hitting a lot now. His OPS has been around .940.

The film I’ve seen shows Keirsey with a really pretty, repeatable swing and he steals 35-40 bases a year. The OF we have is severely flawed w Margot well below avg, Larnach starting to fall prey to off speed stuff again and Castro a debacle in CF recently.

I do think Martin can be good and he made a Buxton like diving catch in Cf this year.

Personally, I don’t pay any attention to the new defensive metrics because I’ve relentlessly seen devotees of them reporting severely counter-intuitive conclusions. OAA is the worst. It leads to conclusions as if you had a stat in basketball for defensive metrics and someone reported "Michael Jordan’s metrics show him to be a below average defender.." I think Correa a couple of years ago was said to be in the 18th percentile for OAA, 100th % being best. Anybody who watches consistently and has any perspective on good SS play could see how wrong that was.

[bean5302]

45 minutes ago, Greglw3 said:

How much film have you watched on Keirsey? Thanks to Tom Froemming, I’ve seen a lot.

My assessment is superb defensive CF. He hit a lot in AA last year and he’s hitting a lot now. His OPS has been around .940.

The film I’ve seen shows Keirsey with a really pretty, repeatable swing and he steals 35-40 bases a year. The OF we have is severely flawed w Margot well below avg, Larnach starting to fall prey to off speed stuff again and Castro a debacle in CF recently.

I do think Martin can be good and he made a Buxton like diving catch in Cf this year.

Personally, I don’t pay any attention to the new defensive metrics because I’ve relentlessly seen devotees of them reporting severely counter-intuitive conclusions. OAA is the worst. It leads to conclusions as if you had a stat in basketball for defensive metrics and someone reported "Michael Jordan’s metrics show him to be a below average defender.." I think Correa a couple of years ago was said to be in the 18th percentile for OAA, 100th % being best. Anybody who watches consistently and has any perspective on good SS play could see how wrong that was.

Lot's of highlight reel plays by college quarterbacks, too. That doesn't mean they're going to be the next Peyton Manning or Tom Brady.

RF/9 is from the 1980s. It just calculates how often a positional player is involved in an out. When Keirsey has been playing in CF, fewer outs per inning are made by the center fielder than when Austin Martin has played there. It's not a ringing endorsement or Keirsey.
Fielding percentage goes back over a century, I trust that doesn't need an explanation.

Austin Martin's sensational diving catch at Baltimore would have been a pedestrian running catch for Byron Buxton or any good center fielder because Martin does not have the speed to cover center field well so he had to race and dive for all he was worth to try and make the catch. Yet, Martin steals tons of bases because he's a great base runner. Range matters. That's why fielding percentage is no longer relied upon as the de-facto judgement for a fielder's prowess.

Looking into 2023's numbers for Keirsey in CF at AA (where he had the largest sample size) and comparing him to the players in that league who logged the most innings (not their best CF's, just the most played) for their respective teams...
CCH(Hou) - Kenedy Corona 2.87
SPR(Stl) - Mike Antico 2.82
MID(Oak) - Denzel Clark 2.72
ARK(Sea) - Jonatan Clase 2.60
FRI(Tex) - Evan Carter 2.57
AMA(Ari) - A.J. Vukovich 2.55
WCH(Min) - Deshawn Keirsey 2.41
SAN(SDP) - Daniel Johnson 2.31
NWA(KCR) - Diego Hernandez 2.23
TUL(LAD) - Jose Ramos 2.16

He's unlikely to be a good center fielder considering how much lower he ranks than so many other players at the position, and his age and experience level. I'd expect him to be quite similar to Austin Martin. Which is to say... hard pressed to cover the position on a regular basis at the MLB level.

[Greglw3]

9 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Lot's of highlight reel plays by college quarterbacks, too. That doesn't mean they're going to be the next Peyton Manning or Tom Brady.

RF/9 is from the 1980s. It just calculates how often a positional player is involved in an out. When Keirsey has been playing in CF, fewer outs per inning are made by the center fielder than when Austin Martin has played there. It's not a ringing endorsement or Keirsey.
Fielding percentage goes back over a century, I trust that doesn't need an explanation.

Austin Martin's sensational diving catch at Baltimore would have been a pedestrian running catch for Byron Buxton or any good center fielder because Martin does not have the speed to cover center field well so he had to race and dive for all he was worth to try and make the catch. Yet, Martin steals tons of bases because he's a great base runner. Range matters. That's why fielding percentage is no longer relied upon as the de-facto judgement for a fielder's prowess.

Looking into 2023's numbers for Keirsey in CF at AA (where he had the largest sample size) and comparing him to the players in that league who logged the most innings (not their best CF's, just the most played) for their respective teams...
CCH(Hou) - Kenedy Corona 2.87
SPR(Stl) - Mike Antico 2.82
MID(Oak) - Denzel Clark 2.72
ARK(Sea) - Jonatan Clase 2.60
FRI(Tex) - Evan Carter 2.57
AMA(Ari) - A.J. Vukovich 2.55
WCH(Min) - Deshawn Keirsey 2.41
SAN(SDP) - Daniel Johnson 2.31
NWA(KCR) - Diego Hernandez 2.23
TUL(LAD) - Jose Ramos 2.16

He's unlikely to be a good center fielder considering how much lower he ranks than so many other players at the position, and his age and experience level. I'd expect him to be quite similar to Austin Martin. Which is to say... hard pressed to cover the position on a regular basis at the MLB level.

I appreciate your perspective and the paradigm is very popular now.

I believe that a far superior measure is a cross section of good MLB caliber scouts, using the 20 to 80 scale. Yes, I think to a trained eye, the eye test is superior to the new defensive "range metrics".  

And, I also believe that fans with 50-60 years experience watching baseball at a passionate level, have the wisdom that only experience can bring. Not that there aren’t exceptions, take a guy like Nash Walker, for example, way ahead of his years.

Bottom line is you believe in those numbers and I don’t because they consistently are at odds with what I and other experts such as the walking baseball encyclopedia, Roy Smalley, can see with our eyes.

My eyes tell me that Carlos Correa has the 2nd best range of any SS in my lifetime, exceeded only by Ozzie Smith and it’s close and getting closer. Correa probably has the strongest arm of any SS in my lifetime. So, I’m skeptical when well intentioned fans write that Correa is below average in any facet of SS defense based on defensive metrics.

I honestly feel that cost him the gold glove at SS since writers are now trusting the defensive metrics, which I think is a lazy way of evaluating players one hasn’t seen play much.

Same was being said about Urshela when he was here, below average when he was playing spectacular defense at 3rd.

I think the only way to find out about Keirsey is to give him a chance. Margot and Castro are awful in CF. I think Keirsey could bring balance to the team with his SB ability, bat and defense. Maybe a Steven Kwan light or if lucky Steven Kwan equal.

And these are just my opinions. We can disagree on Keirsey for whatever reasons - whatever our guiding force is in evaluating players. Maybe he comes to the majors and flops. Or maybe he comes to the majors and does what the legendary 2 Orioles rookies did when called up together, Rich Coggins and Al Bumbry, raw rookies called up during the season both tore it up offensively. I guess I live for that, the thrill of seeing a prospect come up and right a wrong for the team I love! ;-)