Caleb Thielbar Has a New Arsenal

[Ted Schwerzler]

One of the best success stories in recent memory for the Minnesota Twins has been the emergence of Caleb Thielbar as a truly dominant leverage arm. While he got off to a late start, and has seen mixed results this season, he’s also working with a streamlined arsenal.

Image courtesy of © Kiyoshi Mio-USA TODAY Sports

For the past handful of seasons, Caleb Thielbar has been one of Rocco Baldelli’s most trusted relief arms. He’s long past being considered just a LOOGY, and he has shown an ability to overpower any type of hitter, despite being a remade product past its original sell-by date.

After throwing nearly 60 innings in both 2021 and 2022, Thielbar spent time on the injured list in 2023 and was able to compile just 30 2/3 innings. His 3.23 ERA was more of the same strong production the Twins had come to know from him, but the 4.46 FIP suggested some tweaks may be necessary to help him stay competitive this season.

Giving up three runs on three hits during his first outing of the season and only recording a single out set him up for ugly numbers. He has since settled in, though. His strikeout numbers are down, but he hopes to keep his manager's trust level up with a pared-down arsenal. Thielbar was a four-pitch pitcher in 2023, with a four-seamer, a curveball, a slider and a sweeper. So far this season, it’s just the fastball, curve, and sweeper.

There are two rationales in mind when a pitcher makes this kind of adjustment. With the movement he gets on his other three pitches, Thielbar didn't especially need the slider, and eliminating it might help him better command (especially) the sweeper. Beyond that, there’s less for Thielbar to hone in between appearances, and for a guy who has dealt with soft-tissue maladies recently, he can prioritize health.

Obviously, the surface numbers are what they are, but Thielbar is inducing a substantially lower hard-hit rate than last season, and his fly ball rate is roughly 10% north of his career average. He’s allowing quite a bit more contact early on, but after that ugly start, he's come up with a key hold and two saves during the team's eight-game winning streak.

Thielbar's fastball is right in line with his velocity jump of the past two seasons, and he’s holding onto the movement profiles of his remaining breaking balls. Rather than continue to keep a complicated arsenal, it appears a decision to simplify things and further hone the three best offerings could pay some dividends this year.

For the first time this season, the Twins are about to have their ideal bullpen makeup. With Thielbar having recently returned from the injured list, and the pairing of Jhoan Durán and Justin Topa joining the group, a suddenly promising corps can get even better. It was fairly suggested the group may compete to be among the best bullpens in baseball this year, and they've managed to live up to that billing, even without some of their horses.

The continued presence of Griffin Jax and Brock Stewart allows Baldelli flexibility to mix and match late innings. Thielbar can continue to be utilized in key spots, even if he isn’t always throwing in the 7th or 8th innings. Remaining healthy this season as a 37-year-old is imperative, and the Twins continuing to find ways to keep him that way is a must.

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[Doctor Gast]

He keeps going & never ceases to amaze me. Keep it up Caleb!

[Patzky]

Second slowest pitch to strike out a batter at the end of the game, hmm! He makes me nervous but he doesn't make me Pagannervous. How is Emilio doing this year anyway? Edit.. he's doing Pagan stuff, just looked. 3.7 era and a couple wins for the Reds 

[CRF]

I don't mind him in the 6th, 7th, even 8th inning at times, but no way should he be closing games. 

[wabene]

I think TBar is moving down the ranks in the pen. If Okert had options I'd guess Funderburk would now be moving into the number 1 lefty spot. Caleb has had an unexpected and good run. It will not last forever.

[tfbw]

34 minutes ago, CRF said:

I don't mind him in the 6th, 7th, even 8th inning at times, but no way should he be closing games. 

How did he do last night?

[wabene]

1 minute ago, tfbw said:

How did he do last night?

[Ted Schwerzler]

58 minutes ago, Patzky said:

Second slowest pitch to strike out a batter at the end of the game, hmm! He makes me nervous but he doesn't make me Pagannervous. How is Emilio doing this year anyway? Edit.. he's doing Pagan stuff, just looked. 3.7 era and a couple wins for the Reds 

That bender is so nasty though when paired with the fastball. His curveball and sweeper play off of each other extremely well.

[Dman]

I don't know if it is his curve or the sweeper but that pitch has so much movement no one could touch it last night (I think it was the curve). The fastball was another story.  He was throwing it higher in the zone to try and get popups and it worked for the most part but a shallow popup by Grossman fell in so it wasn't completely affective. Hem ight want to keep the fastball out of the zone a bit more and let the other pitches play for strikes as it looked like the White Sox could do much with those pitches.

[wabene]

The best thing he has going for him is dropping that huge hook in for strikes. On that last pitch the batter

had no choice but to swing. Fun to watch, but nerve wracking.

[wabene]

As brought to my attention by @Azviking101 Caleb hasn't been good against right handed batters. He still has a career OPS against of .703. In 2022 it was .634, last year it was .941 and so far this year 1.315. This is not moving in the right direction. Time waits for no one. 

[Rod Carews Birthday]

I think one of the things that adds to Thielbar's effectiveness is the contrast with the flamethrowers around him.  Between Jax, Stewart and (eventually) Duran throwing fire, he's a little bit mentally hard to deal with for the batter.  It works a little the other direction as well, keeping the hitter off balance.  I also am curious to see just how long he can keep up his effectiveness, but he's earned a pretty substantial leash over the past few years. 

[LambchoP]

I'm just glad Duran is coming back because Theilbar and Okert have no business closing out close games. Maybe Stewart and Jax, but nobody else. I hope they don't send down Funderburk because he's been our best lefty...

[Taildragger8791]

37 minutes ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

I think one of the things that adds to Thielbar's effectiveness is the contrast with the flamethrowers around him.  Between Jax, Stewart and (eventually) Duran throwing fire, he's a little bit mentally hard to deal with for the batter.  It works a little the other direction as well, keeping the hitter off balance.  I also am curious to see just how long he can keep up his effectiveness, but he's earned a pretty substantial leash over the past few years. 

Plenty of pitchers have stretches of regular season success being a change of pace guy, or bringing a different look, or having some deception, and that's valuable to get through the season. That stuff doesn't play as well come playoffs or against great lineups in general though. Hopefully his curve keeps playing, but the lack of speed leads me to believe good hitters will eventually just time him up.

[CRF]

You can't spell arsenal without "arse"...which is where I think the managers head is sometimes, when it comes to handling the bullpen. I'm sure glad Duran is back. 

[joefish]

4 hours ago, Patzky said:

Second slowest pitch to strike out a batter at the end of the game, hmm! He makes me nervous but he doesn't make me Pagannervous. How is Emilio doing this year anyway? Edit.. he's doing Pagan stuff, just looked. 3.7 era and a couple wins for the Reds 

I never feel confident when he enters a game. The results might be ok, but it's a nail-biter journey. Never confident.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

1 hour ago, Taildragger8791 said:

Plenty of pitchers have stretches of regular season success being a change of pace guy, or bringing a different look, or having some deception, and that's valuable to get through the season. That stuff doesn't play as well come playoffs or against great lineups in general though. Hopefully his curve keeps playing, but the lack of speed leads me to believe good hitters will eventually just time him up.

You are probably correct in that things can get different come playoff time, but his ability to be a "pitcher" rather than a "thrower" will also serve him well there.  I'm glad to have him around.  From some of the posts on this topic, however, it seems like some already want to turn him into this year's version of Pagan et al who we dread seeing come into the game.  That COULD happen, but I'm pretty sure we're not there yet.  The SSS problem of relievers is killing him right now, but throw out his first appearance this season, and things look just fine. 

[CCHOF5yearstoolate]

4 hours ago, wabene said:

As brought to my attention by @Azviking101 Caleb hasn't been good against right handed batters. He still has a career OPS against of .703. In 2022 it was .634, last year it was .941 and so far this year 1.315. This is not moving in the right direction. Time waits for no one. 

He's faced what, like 15 right handed batters this year? Not saying there's definitely no trend, but year-to-year numbers are very volatile for relievers - much less year-to-year splits.

Quickly glancing at his expected stats, 2022 looks like an outlier good year vs RHB. 

[IndianaTwin]

4 hours ago, CRF said:

You can't spell arsenal without "arse"...which is where I think the managers head is sometimes, when it comes to handling the bullpen. I'm sure glad Duran is back. 

In the seventh, the right-handed Stewart got 6-7-8, R-L-R. The fourth batter would have been another righty.

In the eighth, the right-handed Jax started with 9-1-2, R-L-R. When two guys got on, he also got the Nos. 3 and 4. That was L-R, but using Jax in the eighth was setting him up to be the guy facing the meat of the order if guys get on base.

And in the ninth, as it played out, Thielbar was scheduled to get 5-6-7, L-R-L, except that Chicago used a pinch hitter for No. 7 and No. 8.

 

What would have been your proposed order?

In your thinking, consider that Sands had thrown 35 pitches on Sunday, Okert threw 29 on Sunday and Funderburk threw 38 on Saturday. That leaves Jackson (4.52 FIP) and Bowman (5.64 FIP and now DFAed) as the other fully-rested options. Also keep in mind that Jax threw 6 pitches on Sunday, so they were very unlikely to use him for more than inning, particularly after he threw 22 pitches in the eighth. Finally, consider Stewart has only thrown more than an inning once, and needed 15 pitches to get through the seventh.

[JD-TWINS]

6 hours ago, IndianaTwin said:

In the seventh, the right-handed Stewart got 6-7-8, R-L-R. The fourth batter would have been another righty.

In the eighth, the right-handed Jax started with 9-1-2, R-L-R. When two guys got on, he also got the Nos. 3 and 4. That was L-R, but using Jax in the eighth was setting him up to be the guy facing the meat of the order if guys get on base.

And in the ninth, as it played out, Thielbar was scheduled to get 5-6-7, L-R-L, except that Chicago used a pinch hitter for No. 7 and No. 8.

 

What would have been your proposed order?

In your thinking, consider that Sands had thrown 35 pitches on Sunday, Okert threw 29 on Sunday and Funderburk threw 38 on Saturday. That leaves Jackson (4.52 FIP) and Bowman (5.64 FIP and now DFAed) as the other fully-rested options. Also keep in mind that Jax threw 6 pitches on Sunday, so they were very unlikely to use him for more than inning, particularly after he threw 22 pitches in the eighth. Finally, consider Stewart has only thrown more than an inning once, and needed 15 pitches to get through the seventh.

………AND if he didn’t shake off Vazquez twice and then threw fastball on 0-2 count that got drilled into the OF, nobody would have any angst about last night. Luckily, next batter he got to 2 strikes on - he stuck with the Deuce - game over!

Even with good stuff - can’t fix stupid.