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For the past handful of seasons, Caleb Thielbar has been one of Rocco Baldelli’s most trusted relief arms. He’s long past being considered just a LOOGY, and he has shown an ability to overpower any type of hitter, despite being a remade product past its original sell-by date.
After throwing nearly 60 innings in both 2021 and 2022, Thielbar spent time on the injured list in 2023 and was able to compile just 30 2/3 innings. His 3.23 ERA was more of the same strong production the Twins had come to know from him, but the 4.46 FIP suggested some tweaks may be necessary to help him stay competitive this season.
Giving up three runs on three hits during his first outing of the season and only recording a single out set him up for ugly numbers. He has since settled in, though. His strikeout numbers are down, but he hopes to keep his manager's trust level up with a pared-down arsenal. Thielbar was a four-pitch pitcher in 2023, with a four-seamer, a curveball, a slider and a sweeper. So far this season, it’s just the fastball, curve, and sweeper.
There are two rationales in mind when a pitcher makes this kind of adjustment. With the movement he gets on his other three pitches, Thielbar didn't especially need the slider, and eliminating it might help him better command (especially) the sweeper. Beyond that, there’s less for Thielbar to hone in between appearances, and for a guy who has dealt with soft-tissue maladies recently, he can prioritize health.
Obviously, the surface numbers are what they are, but Thielbar is inducing a substantially lower hard-hit rate than last season, and his fly ball rate is roughly 10% north of his career average. He’s allowing quite a bit more contact early on, but after that ugly start, he's come up with a key hold and two saves during the team's eight-game winning streak.
Thielbar's fastball is right in line with his velocity jump of the past two seasons, and he’s holding onto the movement profiles of his remaining breaking balls. Rather than continue to keep a complicated arsenal, it appears a decision to simplify things and further hone the three best offerings could pay some dividends this year.
For the first time this season, the Twins are about to have their ideal bullpen makeup. With Thielbar having recently returned from the injured list, and the pairing of Jhoan Durán and Justin Topa joining the group, a suddenly promising corps can get even better. It was fairly suggested the group may compete to be among the best bullpens in baseball this year, and they've managed to live up to that billing, even without some of their horses.
The continued presence of Griffin Jax and Brock Stewart allows Baldelli flexibility to mix and match late innings. Thielbar can continue to be utilized in key spots, even if he isn’t always throwing in the 7th or 8th innings. Remaining healthy this season as a 37-year-old is imperative, and the Twins continuing to find ways to keep him that way is a must.
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