5 Predictions Sure to Go Right for the 2024 Twins

[Cody Christie]

It’s time to break out the crystal ball and prognosticate how good the Twins can be this season. Here are five bold predictions for the 2024 campaign.

Image courtesy of Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports

Baseball fans made it through the long winter months, and now, each team is beginning a journey toward October. As a friendly reminder, enjoy the upcoming regular season. Nothing is guaranteed in baseball, and only one fan base will be happy when the season concludes. Appreciating the regular season ride is essential, or being a fan can be a miserable experience. That said, here are five bold predictions to track in the upcoming season. 

Pablo Lopez leads the AL in strikeouts and innings pitched
Last season, Lopez finished three strikeouts behind Kevin Gausman for the league lead, but the Toronto ace is starting the year on the IL. There has been plenty of hype surrounding Lopez this spring, with many national outlets picking him as the AL Cy Young favorite, so that’s not exactly a bold prediction. Many of the top five finishers for last year’s Cy Young are hurt to begin the year, which should help Lopez’s chances if he can stay healthy. 

Byron Buxton plays over 100 games
There has only been one season where Buxton has crossed the century mark in games played, which was in 2017 (140 G). Over the last two seasons, he has averaged 88.5 games while dealing with multiple injuries. Buxton and the Twins are confident that his latest knee procedure has made him healthy for the first time in quite a while. He has shown an ability to provide tremendous value to the Twins even when he plays fewer than 100 games. 

Edouard Julien finishes top three in BB%
Julien had a very patient approach at the plate last season and posted a 15.7 BB%, ranking in the 98th percentile. At points in the season, he was almost too patient because he’d watch a good pitch go past him for strike three. His 14.3 chase % was also near the top of the league, ranking in the 100th percentile. Look for umpires to start recognizing how good his eye is at the plate and give him more borderline calls. 

Griffin Jax leads the AL in WPA
Jax and Brock Stewart are likely to fill in at closer for the Twins while Jhoan Duran is sidelined with an oblique injury. However, the Twins will use Stewart as the primary closer and have Jax as the fireman who can be used in any situation. Last season, Jax saw some issues with BAbip, which can point to bad luck with balls dropping in behind him. Despite some struggles, he posted career-best marks in exit velocity and hard-hit percentage. Jax puts that bad luck behind him and will be a weapon out of the bullpen for the entire season. 

Minnesota finishes as the two seed in the AL
Last season, the Twins won the AL Central and finished as the AL’s third seed. In the last month, there was an outside chance for the team to surpass the AL West leader for the second seed and a first-round bye. Many project systems point to the Twins winning the Central again but finishing a distant second for the second seed. The AL West is going to beat up on each other again, which allows the Twins to win 90+ games and earn the second seed. 

Which bold prediction is most likely to come true? What other predictions do you have? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. 

 

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[I Never Bet On Sports]

I hope Pablo leads the AL in strikeouts but not necessarily in innings pitched (unless you include the post season). Here's hoping he makes another 32 starts, but avoids 200 innings. 

 

My prediction, Twins have five starters with more than ten starts with a sub 4.00 era for the season.

[Whitey333]

Funny how things go.  It used to be for starters to avoid 300 innings.  It wasn't unusual at all for most starters to go well beyond 200 innings.  Now if they approach 200 innings we worry their arm is going to fall off.  And it probably will.  We pay starting pitchers historically high salaries and if they pitch 6 innings it's considered some major accomplishment.  Yet they are also getting injured at an alarming rate.  With all the athletic trainers, and off season conditioning going on the pitchers should be in better shape now than ever before.  Just saying.

[Karbo]

Here are a couple of optimistic projections.

Both Correa and Buxton win gold gloves with Correa getting another platinum.

Julian gets nod at all star game, along with Correa, Buxton, and Lopez.

Duran comes back and is a finalist for the fireman of the year award.

[Mark G]

57 minutes ago, Karbo said:

Here are a couple of optimistic projections.

Both Correa and Buxton win gold gloves with Correa getting another platinum.

Julian gets nod at all star game, along with Correa, Buxton, and Lopez.

Duran comes back and is a finalist for the fireman of the year award.

You have a lot more faith in Buxton's health than I do, but I sure do love the rest of that prediction.  😉

[rv78]

Whether the Twins can finish as the 2nd seed will be in Rocco's hands just like it was last year. How many throw away games was he responsible for by using a "B" lineup, especially in the last game of a series with another game scheduled the next day? There were a few for sure. A good Manager doesn't throw games away during the season knowing seeding can be very important in the playoffs. Play your best players everyday, every game, if you can. Rocco doesn't do that.

[Fatbat]

Correa and Buxton both get votes for MVP. Twins win 104 games. AK bats .300 with a .923 OPS. 4 SP have 15 or more wins.  2nd best pitching staff in MLB.

[Oldgoat_MN]

I am all in on AK having a GREAT season. All the hype from 3 and 4 years ago will show as justified. 

[JD-TWINS]

1 hour ago, rv78 said:

Whether the Twins can finish as the 2nd seed will be in Rocco's hands just like it was last year. How many throw away games was he responsible for by using a "B" lineup, especially in the last game of a series with another game scheduled the next day? There were a few for sure. A good Manager doesn't throw games away during the season knowing seeding can be very important in the playoffs. Play your best players everyday, every game, if you can. Rocco doesn't do that.

Last year the Yankees had 7 guys play 100 or more games.

The Dodgers in ‘23 had 10 guys play 100 or more games.

The TWINS had 9 guys play 100 or more games in ‘23. Gotta have “best guys” healthy to have them in the line-up.

Buxton - hurt 

Lewis - hurt

Farmer - hurt

Polanco - hurt

Kepler - hurt

Mahle - hurt

Maeda - hurt

Tough to get guys on the field if they aren’t capable of playing! Good managers win with what they have……win when guys aren’t producing……Kepler - Buxton - Vazquez - etc.

Nothing wrong with the Manager, IMO.

[JD-TWINS]

2 hours ago, rv78 said:

Whether the Twins can finish as the 2nd seed will be in Rocco's hands just like it was last year. How many throw away games was he responsible for by using a "B" lineup, especially in the last game of a series with another game scheduled the next day? There were a few for sure. A good Manager doesn't throw games away during the season knowing seeding can be very important in the playoffs. Play your best players everyday, every game, if you can. Rocco doesn't do that.

Played Correa 135 games and he had a hard time running in about 100 of those!

[Obstakes]

Long time Twins fan, first time poster. I live elsewhere now, so I don’t follow how I used to…until now.

is the pitching supposed to be good? I’m hopeful after reading some comments.

[ashbury]

7 hours ago, I Never Bet On Sports said:

My prediction, Twins have five starters with more than ten starts with a sub 4.00 era for the season.

Who replaces Ober in your rotation?  It's going to take a while before his ERA descends below 4. 😀

[ashbury]

1 hour ago, Obstakes said:

Long time Twins fan, first time poster. I live elsewhere now, so I don’t follow how I used to…until now.

is the pitching supposed to be good? I’m hopeful after reading some comments.

Welcome, and good first post.  Hopefulness is always gladly received by every poster here.  😀

Pitching could be good.  We have some good starters.  There are hopes that the front office has assembled a reasonably strong bullpen.  Some are, ahem, more skeptical than others.

[Doctor Gast]

2 hours ago, Obstakes said:

Long time Twins fan, first time poster. I live elsewhere now, so I don’t follow how I used to…until now.

is the pitching supposed to be good? I’m hopeful after reading some comments.

Welcome

[JD-TWINS]

18 hours ago, Obstakes said:

Long time Twins fan, first time poster. I live elsewhere now, so I don’t follow how I used to…until now.

is the pitching supposed to be good? I’m hopeful after reading some comments.

New people are great.

Bullpen is supposed to be (predicted by baseball people) to be the best in the A.L. - 3 of top 5 guys are hurt to start the season. They are OK with depth guys for now……should start returning in 3-4 weeks.

Have a couple starters that are “hopeful” at the back of the rotation. One guy that’s “consistent” laid an egg Sunday. Generally, the staff should be top 2-4 in the American League.

[jud6312]

On 3/31/2024 at 9:56 AM, Fatbat said:

4 SP have 15 or more wins. 

We talking real life or MLB The Show?

[Fatbat]

4 hours ago, jud6312 said:

We talking real life or MLB The Show?

Well it’s technically possible since we have 5 mostly legit young starters. Only need 4 of them to get wins in half their starts.  Yes, many things have to go really well, but thats my prediction. 

[jud6312]

14 hours ago, Fatbat said:

Well it’s technically possible since we have 5 mostly legit young starters. Only need 4 of them to get wins in half their starts.  Yes, many things have to go really well, but thats my prediction. 

I mean, I like the optimism, but in all of MLB last year there 8 pitchers that won 15 games. 

[Fatbat]

2 minutes ago, jud6312 said:

I mean, I like the optimism, but in all of MLB last year there 8 pitchers that won 15 games. 

If it happens, it will stop all the whining on this site about how we have no talent and we can’t have nice things on the team.