The Big Question: Minnesota Twins Top of the Rotation

[Ted Schwerzler]

Realistically, there are very few questions at the tippy top of the Minnesota Twins rotation, but the pitchers that directly follow Pablo Lopez invite some of their own.

Image courtesy of © Jordan Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

When the Minnesota Twins look back at their 2024 regular season, one of the only questions they would like to consider regarding Pablo Lopez is whether or not he won the Cy Young. Rocco Baldelli was able to name his Opening Day starter months ago, and he’ll get the ball every fifth day with an eye on domination. Lopez was great in 2023, arguably better than Sonny Gray at times, and should take another step forward this season.

How well this Twins group holds up without Gray and Kenta Maeda remains to be seen. How much they can carry the water for a lineup that should be better relies heavily on development being made by both Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober.

The front office, hamstrung by ownership payroll constraints, did not get a bonafide number two starter this offseason. There is hope that Ryan could turn into that, and it would be quite the coup, considering the organization gave up nothing but a cooked Nelson Cruz to net him.

Last season, Ryan posted a 4.51 ERA with a nearly identical 4.13 FIP. His expected statistics were much better, with an xERA of 3.53 and an xFIP of 3.76. Those don’t mean much from a results standpoint but suggest that better numbers were possible. For Ryan, a good amount of that focuses on limiting the longball. Having previously surrendered 1.4 HR/9 during his five-game rookie sample, he ballooned that number to 1.8 HR/9 a season ago. Batters got on much more often with a career-worst 8.6 H/9, which left every dinger doing more damage.

There is no doubt that Ryan is capable of missing bats. He came up just three strikeouts shy of 200 last season, and he should be expected to best that total this season. Keeping hitters off balance and removing the 41.6% hard-hit percentage would be an excellent place to start. Predominantly a fastball and slider pitcher, Ryan did incorporate a sinker nearly a quarter of the time last season. He pushed his chase rate to a career-best 37.5%, and his whiff rate almost reached 14%. Zone contact didn’t burn him, and there wasn’t a consistent trend of “how” he was doing things wrong. The most problematic was the misses getting demolished.

If Ryan can take another step forward mentally and continue to execute from a physical standpoint, the Twins could again have two pitchers in the top 25 starters across the entirety of Major League Baseball.

It’s not just Ryan, though, as Ober should also be expected to take a step forward. Having started at Triple-A last season, begrudgingly, he’ll be entrenched in the rotation this time.

Ober’s 3.43 ERA last season came in 26 starts, and while he doesn’t get the same level of hype as Ryan, there’s a path for him to produce at the same level or better. Coming off 144 innings at the major league level, being healthy should allow him to surpass that total, given the starts he made for the St. Paul Saints. 

As Matthew Trueblood wrote this offseason, Ober excels despite a lack of velocity. He is cut of a similar cloth to Zack Greinke, Kyle Hendricks, Maeda, or Merrill Kelly. He does things differently in that the control and command of the zone are largely unmatched by pitchers of this profile across the sport. Utilizing the upper portion of the zone, he attacks hitters where pitches are perceived quicker while avoiding misses middle-middle.

This ability comes from the stature that Ober has at his disposal. With a commanding presence on the mound and an extension that gets on hitters, he uses his physical traits and pitching abilities to be a true outlier. There might not be a significant step forward for the 28-year-old, but if he continues to cement this production as a reflection of who he is, then the top half of Baldelli’s rotation will be in a good place.

It’s fair to question the depth Minnesota has behind some of their top options, but it’s also worth wondering if the Twins didn’t already have enough at the top that spending for a number two didn’t make sense.

View full article

[Fire Dan Gladden]

This article speaks truth.  To be strong competitors this year, Ryan and Ober need to continue to improve.

People everywhere are drinking the kool-aid that the Twins are the team to beat in the central or they are better than last year.  Fans, pundits, everyone.  The bottom line is that they do not have established SP track records to fall back on.  You knew what you were getting with Gray and Maeda, you are HOPING to get what you need from Ryan and Ober. (I am not even going to address the trickle-down train-wreck that is SP4 and SP5).

I am cautiously optimistic on Ryan and Ober, but the SP needs to be a top 5-7 rotation for them to have any WS aspirations.  To buy in and say that the SP is going to be in the neighborhood of last year right now is unbelievably premature.

[Karbo]

I actually think Ober will be better than Ryan this year. I also believe Paddack will be better than projections. After them between Desclafini & Varland are big question marks. Varland is lights out so far in ST but we all know that means little. I'm anxious to see Desclafini pitch this ST. He was pretty good a few years ago, so I'm going to take the optimistic view and hope all goes well. My order for the rotation would be Lopez, Ober, Ryan Paddack, and 5A Desclafini, 5B Varland, with a short leash on Desclafini.

[roger]

Have believed since last fall that Ober can be a good #2.  Although not flashy he is both steady and solid, game after game.  Likewise expect Ryan to take another small step forward.  Am excited, however, to see Ober take charge and be that next guy after Pablo.

[Parfigliano]

Varland will quickly replace Descalf maybe right out of spring training.  Not worried about Ryan.  Paddack is the key.  Get 130+ sub 4 ERA innings out of him.

[bean5302]

As I recall, Baldelli talked about Joe Ryan needing to walk more guys in unfavorable counts. Not that walks are good, but it's better than grooving a fastball in the meat of the zone just to avoid a walk on a 3-1 or 3-2 count. I don't know if that's necessarily true or not (Ryan trying too hard to avoid walks), but hitters absolutely tee'd off on Ryan in the 2nd half, and the Twins clearly didn't have a ton of confidence in Ryan come playoff time. 

I do not share the optimism of most fans when it comes to Ryan. Having one excellent pitch and a few borderline serviceable pitches is almost always a recipe for bullpen arms, but Ryan's stuff seems to play just well enough to keep him in the rotation for now. I think he's flashed his ceiling already, but I also believe he can probably hang on to a #4 type starter role for a while longer.

None of the Twins' starters behind Lopez have a legitimate upside of a #1-2 rotation arm in my opinion, but stranger things have happened. I also don't think the Twins absolutely need a top of the rotation pitcher at the moment. They can go get one before the deadline. The rotation seems plenty deep with #4, high floor guys, and that's a fine recipe for making it "to" the playoffs with Lopez in the rotation. 

[Doctor Gast]

IDK, I hope so but I wouldn't bet on it.

[Althebum82]

Cautious optimism is, of course, the prudent approach to expectations for Ryan and Ober in particular.  They have earned that level of confidence and probably even more than that.  Maybe we are selling short on Varland's potential impact.  Yes, spring training results are generally not reliable, but the results do come on the heels of an impressive bullpen run at the end of last year and a lot of maturing that happened before that at the major league and AAA levels.

I am so far encouraged that Paddack has, again in small sample size, looked competitive too.  We all know how injuries can wreck any starting rotation but I do believe as a base plan these five represent a good rotation for the Twins.

[sweetmusicviola16]

I think Ober is going to be better this season. With a but. But we will be needing to keep his IP down. He's been talking 200 IP. I say keep him down to 140, and healthy and effective.

Ryan? He imo has hit his high water mark. He'd be a decent 4 or 5 guy but should be no higher.

I have little confidence in Paddock staying healthy tbh.

Buxton scratched today due to his back. Byron is not to be relied on. Margot is not a CF for a contender.

DeSclafani on the DL. At least Varland gets his chance.

Duran and Thielbar on the DL. W/o these guys are Pen is ho hum.

[Whitey333]

Every spring is the same for the Twins.  Season success based on hope, what if, maybe, potential, hype, if only, and the like.  I'm sure most teams goe through something similar but with the Twins it's a perpetual philosophy in roster building .  This year is no different.  Just more of it.  Yes the Twins should win 87-90 games and win the non competitive Central division.  But if all the what is, hype, maybe, etc don't come through they could just as easily finish with a losing record and no playoffs.  We shall see.

[JD-TWINS]

On 3/18/2024 at 2:39 PM, sweetmusicviola16 said:

I think Ober is going to be better this season. With a but. But we will be needing to keep his IP down. He's been talking 200 IP. I say keep him down to 140, and healthy and effective.

Ryan? He imo has hit his high water mark. He'd be a decent 4 or 5 guy but should be no higher.

I have little confidence in Paddock staying healthy tbh.

Buxton scratched today due to his back. Byron is not to be relied on. Margot is not a CF for a contender.

DeSclafani on the DL. At least Varland gets his chance.

Duran and Thielbar on the DL. W/o these guys are Pen is ho hum.

IMO, if Duran can get healthy in 6-8 weeks we’ll be fine. Thielbar has been mostly very effective since getting back into baseball. I think he’s probably done or certainly he’s backed up to a much lesser role for ‘24.

Funderburk - Okert as the 2 LH pitchers in Pen seems almost a certainty at this point.

Jackson - Topa - Alcala - Sands - Jax - Stewart…..this group of 8 should be fine for a month or two.

Buxton is a flip of the coin……I do think Castro slots into CF as the regular v. RH pitching…………daily, if Buxton cannot play.

Do not expect any help from DeSclafani.

Paddack’s repaired elbow should still be fresh for ‘24. If he stays at 125 innings or less over 5.5-6 months, he should hold up.

Ryan had a decent ERA and won 13 games in ‘22. He won 11 games and was cruising in ‘23 until he hurt his leg and didn’t let the Team know. Stupid maybe, but I don’t think he’s hit the peak of his promise at this point.

Ober threw 167 innings last year with his starts in St. Paul added to his 144 innings on Big Club. I have confidence we should expect 160 innings out of him……..what he says about his innings goals for the season (200) are really not relevant as he has little to no say in the matter.

[JD-TWINS]

On 3/19/2024 at 8:36 AM, Whitey333 said:

Every spring is the same for the Twins.  Season success based on hope, what if, maybe, potential, hype, if only, and the like.  I'm sure most teams goe through something similar but with the Twins it's a perpetual philosophy in roster building .  This year is no different.  Just more of it.  Yes the Twins should win 87-90 games and win the non competitive Central division.  But if all the what is, hype, maybe, etc don't come through they could just as easily finish with a losing record and no playoffs.  We shall see.

Might win 94 just as easily!

After they had played the weak Division opponents in ‘23 the Twins were 14-5 v. Texas - Houston - Philly - Arizona last year…….the last 4 teams standing.

If Gray pitches up to his reputation v. Houston the season may have had a better outcome.

Obviously, every team is hoping for good health and for good fortune for their player’s performances. All part of Fandom……..same thoughts/emotions with The Wild - T-Wolves - Vikings.

The Twins will be fine and very competitive in the A.L. - sure hope so!