2024 International Signings

[AlwaysinModeration]

Twin sign MLB.com #8 ranked player in the international signing class, SS Daiber De Los Santos from the Dominican Republic. 

https://www.mlb.com/video/top-int-l-prospects-de-los-santos-ss?t=mlb-pipeline

They also signed #39 Eduardo Beltre, also from the DR.

https://www.mlb.com/video/top-int-l-prospects-beltre-of?t=mlb-pipeline

Here are the other four they signed today:

Victor Leal, C, Venezuela
Alver Medina, SS, Dominican Republic
Davirick Fuenmayor, OF, Venezuela
Yoel Roque, RHP, Dominican Republic

There are so many weird aspects of the international signing process.  There is basically no fanfare, especially compared to the draft.  All of the players have been recruited for years and have already committed to teams well before the official signing period.  And yet, there are tons of these players signing today who will make a bigger impact than any of the drafted players from the same class.

[Sielk]

4 hours ago, AlwaysinModeration said:

Twin sign MLB.com #8 ranked player in the international signing class, SS Daiber De Los Santos from the Dominican Republic. 

https://www.mlb.com/video/top-int-l-prospects-de-los-santos-ss?t=mlb-pipeline

His name is actually Daibel, not Daiber. MLB got it wrong. But he sounds exciting!

There has also been another name added to the list:

Murphy Hernandez, OF, Dominican Republic

Oh, and we have a picture of Eduardo Beltré signing:

 

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

So we went for quality over quantity this time.  These kids are the essence of lottery picks.  You hit on them though and doing very well.  Braves have effectively built their team from the international side of things.  

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

If we spent 1.5 million on Beltre how much did we spend on De Los Santos of $6.52 million budget? 

[Sielk]

Here is Daibel:

So the Twins have a little over $3 million left for their other guys. Which is a lot.

3 hours ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

So we went for quality over quantity this time.  These kids are the essence of lottery picks.  You hit on them though and doing very well.  Braves have effectively built their team from the international side of things.  

I would expect more signings to trickle in today and maybe in the next few days. And there are always a few kids who sign later in the signing period (which is until December).

[Doctor Gast]

Quote

All of the players have been recruited for years and have already committed to teams well before the official signing period.  And yet, there are tons of these players signing today who will make a bigger impact than any of the drafted players from the same class.

Yeah. this has been unfortunate. So many very good catchers come out of Venezuela, Other teams have footholds there & MN fights for the leftovers.

[Sielk]

1 hour ago, Doctor Gast said:

Yeah. this has been unfortunate. So many very good catchers come out of Venezuela, Other teams have footholds there & MN fights for the leftovers.

Huh? With Victor Leal the Twins have now signed a Venezuelan catcher for three years in a row...

Carlos Silva last year was even a top 50 international prospect. Obviously that didn't work out great so far but that's the point: There's just so much uncertainty with these 16-year-olds. If you spend 5 million on whoever you think the best catching prospect is, you could get Ethan Salas. But it's far more likely that your prospect either completely flames out or that he never develops the physical and mental skillset that's necessary (because all 16-year-old catchers still have a lot to learn until they're viable defenders in the big leagues). And then you have spend a lot of money on a kid that's less athletic and probably a lesser hitter than all the toolsy SS and CF that the other teams signed. 

So, while I wouldn't say that the Twins have necessarily been great at getting results, I completely agree with the basic premise of their IFA strategy: 1. Spread the money out and 2. if you spend a little bit more on a guy, choose a player with a position where pure athleticism carries you a long way. That's easier to predict. There is a reason why HS catchers have so much lower success rates than college ones. And these kids are even younger. And contrary to your statement about "so many very good catchers from Venezuela", I still wouldn't say that the big leagues are overflowing with them.

Far better to spend on SS and CF and sign a catcher here or there for $300,000 or so.

Speaking of which, the three catchers they've signed over the last three years? The third name I haven't mentioned in this post so far is Daniel Peña. You might want to check out his BRef page. He might not be Ethan Salas but I think the Twins could have something there?

[Sielk]

Another name has come out.

Melvin Rodríguez, RHP, from the DR.

[Doctor Gast]

14 hours ago, Sielk said:

Huh? With Victor Leal the Twins have now signed a Venezuelan catcher for three years in a row...

Carlos Silva last year was even a top 50 international prospect. Obviously that didn't work out great so far but that's the point: There's just so much uncertainty with these 16-year-olds. If you spend 5 million on whoever you think the best catching prospect is, you could get Ethan Salas. But it's far more likely that your prospect either completely flames out or that he never develops the physical and mental skillset that's necessary (because all 16-year-old catchers still have a lot to learn until they're viable defenders in the big leagues). And then you have spend a lot of money on a kid that's less athletic and probably a lesser hitter than all the toolsy SS and CF that the other teams signed. 

So, while I wouldn't say that the Twins have necessarily been great at getting results, I completely agree with the basic premise of their IFA strategy: 1. Spread the money out and 2. if you spend a little bit more on a guy, choose a player with a position where pure athleticism carries you a long way. That's easier to predict. There is a reason why HS catchers have so much lower success rates than college ones. And these kids are even younger. And contrary to your statement about "so many very good catchers from Venezuela", I still wouldn't say that the big leagues are overflowing with them.

Far better to spend on SS and CF and sign a catcher here or there for $300,000 or so.

Speaking of which, the three catchers they've signed over the last three years? The third name I haven't mentioned in this post so far is Daniel Peña. You might want to check out his BRef page. He might not be Ethan Salas but I think the Twins could have something there?

I respect your opinion Seik. Overall I see value in it. But when you have a definite need you go after the sure thing. IMO Ethan Salas is the most certain thing to come out of the Latin Americas. Many of our picks accept our 1st & 2nd (yet many of them still don't pan out) are cheap lotto tickets.

Quote

sign a catcher here or there for $300,000 or so.

We need an elite catcher to progress to the WS. What kind of catcher is $300,000 going to get us?

Daniel Peña, hits well, he's not a slugger but I don't care. The thing I look 1st in a catcher is his arm. I see Daniel Peña has a poor CS% that got much worse going to FSL, which shows me he has a poor arm & technique. 2nd thing is his athleticism, back up position of 1B doesn't give me much confidence.

Again I respect your opinion & thoroughly enjoyed your article, we just disagree on some points

[AlwaysinModeration]

22 hours ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

So we went for quality over quantity this time.  These kids are the essence of lottery picks.  You hit on them though and doing very well.  Braves have effectively built their team from the international side of things.  

Actually, quite the opposite.  Here is the Baseball America page of signings:

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/2024-mlb-international-signings-tracker/

Twins have signed 9 players, including two that were profiled by BA before signing day.  Detroit, the Royals, and the White Sox have signed 8.  No other team has signed fewer than 10.  And teams that have signed 20+ players include:  Arizona (23), Boston (23), Cleveland (26), Miami (21), the Mets (21), San Francisco (21), Tampa (24) and Washington (21).  And the Brewers have signed 35.

So I don’t know if the Twins got quality, but they haven’t gone for quantity.

 

 

[DJL44]

5 years later and only Emmanuel Rodriguez and Ricardo Olivar make a top 40 prospect list. Malfrin Sosa washed out in 2022.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

56 minutes ago, AlwaysinModeration said:

Actually, quite the opposite.  Here is the Baseball America page of signings:

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/2024-mlb-international-signings-tracker/

Twins have signed 9 players, including two that were profiled by BA before signing day.  Detroit, the Royals, and the White Sox have signed 8.  No other team has signed fewer than 10.  And teams that have signed 20+ players include:  Arizona (23), Boston (23), Cleveland (26), Miami (21), the Mets (21), San Francisco (21), Tampa (24) and Washington (21).  And the Brewers have signed 35.

So I don’t know if the Twins got quality, but they haven’t gone for quantity.

 

 

What I was suggesting is before we got the number for De Los Santos,  it seemed they had put in a lot of their budge on top two players.   Beltre signed for $1.5.  However De Los Santos signed for $1.9 quite a bit less than I expected.  Even still,  you have 50% of your budget in 2 players.   What is curious is whether a team is trying to get the elite players in the top 10,   or going for several in the 50-100 range.   I was expecting something similar to last year where they had 88% in 3 players.  I still think its top heavy with 2 high level signings,  but a bit more spread out than last year.  

[AlwaysinModeration]

48 minutes ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

What I was suggesting is before we got the number for De Los Santos,  it seemed they had put in a lot of their budge on top two players.   Beltre signed for $1.5.  However De Los Santos signed for $1.9 quite a bit less than I expected.  Even still,  you have 50% of your budget in 2 players.   What is curious is whether a team is trying to get the elite players in the top 10,   or going for several in the 50-100 range.   I was expecting something similar to last year where they had 88% in 3 players.  I still think it’s top heavy with 2 high level signings,  but a bit more spread out than last year.  

On the BA signing page, while it doesn’t have signing amounts easily accessible, it looks like four teams have signed exactly one of the profiles players (Atlanta, Houston, Angels, and Dodgers).  Twenty teams have signed exactly 2 profiled players.  Five teams (AZ, Balt, Mil, NYY, Tampa) signed 3 profiled players, and one team (Toronto) signed four.  

[Sielk]

Thanks for the very polite reply, Doctor Gast. Still, let me offer some counterpoints:

On 1/16/2024 at 1:07 PM, Doctor Gast said:

But when you have a definite need you go after the sure thing.

First off, "need" is always a problematic point when it comes to prospects. That's true for the draft and it's certainly true here. Even if you believe that the Twins have a need at C, no international signee will help with that anytime soon. And predicting needs that could exist a few years down the road is next to impossible. Maybe the Twins will need a shortstop by then, because C4 has moved of the position, and Daibel de los Santos comes in handy?

If you think that C is a weakness in the system, that's a fair assessment (and one I agree with). But if you try to adress that by specifically targeting catchers (and more generally, always try to fill positions of need), you really run into danger of a) signing worse players and b) creating new needs because you neglected certain positions in favor of others. And all that could be for players who don't even end up as catchers because, again, they're 16 and hard to predict.

On 1/16/2024 at 1:07 PM, Doctor Gast said:

Many of our picks accept our 1st & 2nd (yet many of them still don't pan out) are cheap lotto tickets. We need an elite catcher to progress to the WS. What kind of catcher is $300,000 going to get us?

Potentially a very good one? The league is full of international superstars who signed for very little money. Ronald Acuña Jr? $100,000. José Ramírez? $50,000. And if we're just talking catchers?

I looked at the 2023 WAR leaderboard for catchers at Fangraphs. The top international catcher, Francisco Álvarez, signed for 2.7 million, okay. But next up? Willson Contreras, $850,000 and Yainer Díaz (who Astros fans are very excited about) and Gabriel Moreno for $25,000 each.

In general, I think you vastly overestimate how much of a known thing these young prospects really are. Maybe Ethan Salas is an exception. (I remember reading something about him playing at a higher level than even top international prospects in other years.) But apart from him, even the top prospects of any given class are more the idea of a player that they could become rather than fully formed players with developed traits.

We (and I'm often guilty of this, too) tend to look at scouting reports or their stats on Fangraphs and we see: "Has a good fastball, but his slider needs work." or we look at their CS% and think to ourselves: "Oh, that's really bad, he must have a weak arm." And we treat this stuff as definite traits that could be slightly improved but are otherwise part of the player.

But in reality, it looks more like this: "Oh, he has come in with like 5 different pitches that he's tried out at certain times. Now let's see if we can take all this and tweak or combine everything to maybe get 2 - 3 usable major league pitches out of this." And: "Yeah, he is totally skinny right now and the current throwing technique will never work but if he grows a few inches, puts on muscles and we completely overhaul his throwing, the result might be good!"

In short, there's a lot of guesswork involved what players might develop into. To prove this point, look no further than our very own Ryan Jeffers. He had below average CS% for years. Then he overhauled his throwing motion last offseason and surprise!, in 2023 he was well above average (24.5% compared to 19.8% league AVG). Jeffers was 25. You don't think still-growing teenagers can completely change their strengths?

Obviously, that works the other way around as well. You sign a young catcher with all traits you could wish for and as they work their way up through the minors, you discover that he just doesn't have the quick hands you hoped for and his game calling simply isn't up to MLB standards (in my opinion the most important but very hard to predict and quantify part of catcher defense). We will see. All that said, if the Twins throw all their money at a catcher next year, I also won't be unhappy.

And man, if anyone actually read through that entire thing, respect. It kept getting longer and longer...

[Sielk]

And we have more news! The Twins announced their full Dominican and Venezuelan classes. We have eight players from the DR and eleven from Venezuela, 19 in total.

If past years are any indication, I would expect more marginal signings over the next few months. But we won't know about those until we see the DSL boxscores.

[Kenny Powers]

On 1/16/2024 at 11:32 AM, DJL44 said:

5 years later and only Emmanuel Rodriguez and Ricardo Olivar make a top 40 prospect list. Malfrin Sosa washed out in 2022.

You might be referencing a different prospect list, but looking at the Twins website "Top 30 prospects", I count eight International signings (NAME and Twins Top 30 Prospect rank):

1.)  EMMANUEL RODRIGUEZ  (#3)

2.)  DANNY DE ANDRADE (#10)

3.)  JOSE RODRIGUEZ (#12)

4.)  JOSE SALAS (#17) Drafted by Marlins, but acquired in Luis Arraez trade

5.)  RICARDO OLIVAR (#21)

6.)  YASSER MERCEDES (#22)

7.)  BYRON CHOURIO (#26) Drafted by Marlins, but acquired in Luis Arraez trade

8.)  YUNIOR SEVERINO (#28)

 

Plus we had Yennier Cano (traded for Jorge Lopez) who was pretty successful last year for the O's.  And of course Kepler and Polonco are former International signings.  I probably missed some guys too, but if I did, I'm sure someone else will chime in.  Anyway - I'm actually surprised at how many of these guys show up as top 30 team prospects.  

[Doctor Gast]

35 minutes ago, Sielk said:

Thanks for the very polite reply, Doctor Gast. Still, let me offer some counterpoints:

First off, "need" is always a problematic point when it comes to prospects. That's true for the draft and it's certainly true here. Even if you believe that the Twins have a need at C, no international signee will help with that anytime soon. And predicting needs that could exist a few years down the road is next to impossible. Maybe the Twins will need a shortstop by then, because C4 has moved of the position, and Daibel de los Santos comes in handy?

If you think that C is a weakness in the system, that's a fair assessment (and one I agree with). But if you try to adress that by specifically targeting catchers (and more generally, always try to fill positions of need), you really run into danger of a) signing worse players and b) creating new needs because you neglected certain positions in favor of others. And all that could be for players who don't even end up as catchers because, again, they're 16 and hard to predict.

Potentially a very good one? The league is full of international superstars who signed for very little money. Ronald Acuña Jr? $100,000. José Ramírez? $50,000. And if we're just talking catchers?

I looked at the 2023 WAR leaderboard for catchers at Fangraphs. The top international catcher, Francisco Álvarez, signed for 2.7 million, okay. But next up? Willson Contreras, $850,000 and Yainer Díaz (who Astros fans are very excited about) and Gabriel Moreno for $25,000 each.

In general, I think you vastly overestimate how much of a known thing these young prospects really are. Maybe Ethan Salas is an exception. (I remember reading something about him playing at a higher level than even top international prospects in other years.) But apart from him, even the top prospects of any given class are more the idea of a player that they could become rather than fully formed players with developed traits.

We (and I'm often guilty of this, too) tend to look at scouting reports or their stats on Fangraphs and we see: "Has a good fastball, but his slider needs work." or we look at their CS% and think to ourselves: "Oh, that's really bad, he must have a weak arm." And we treat this stuff as definite traits that could be slightly improved but are otherwise part of the player.

But in reality, it looks more like this: "Oh, he has come in with like 5 different pitches that he's tried out at certain times. Now let's see if we can take all this and tweak or combine everything to maybe get 2 - 3 usable major league pitches out of this." And: "Yeah, he is totally skinny right now and the current throwing technique will never work but if he grows a few inches, puts on muscles and we completely overhaul his throwing, the result might be good!"

In short, there's a lot of guesswork involved what players might develop into. To prove this point, look no further than our very own Ryan Jeffers. He had below average CS% for years. Then he overhauled his throwing motion last offseason and surprise!, in 2023 he was well above average (24.5% compared to 19.8% league AVG). Jeffers was 25. You don't think still-growing teenagers can completely change their strengths?

Obviously, that works the other way around as well. You sign a young catcher with all traits you could wish for and as they work their way up through the minors, you discover that he just doesn't have the quick hands you hoped for and his game calling simply isn't up to MLB standards (in my opinion the most important but very hard to predict and quantify part of catcher defense). We will see. All that said, if the Twins throw all their money at a catcher next year, I also won't be unhappy.

And man, if anyone actually read through that entire thing, respect. It kept getting longer and longer...

Thanks your right, I guess I've been frustrated with how things have been run.  It'll take too many years for a young normal Latin international prospect to ripen into a full-fledged catcher. So this draft is basically nonessential unless you want to develop a steady pipeline (which is not a bad idea). But does nothing for our current need.

[DJL44]

6 minutes ago, Kenny Powers said:

You might be referencing a different prospect list, but looking at the Twins website "Top 30 prospects", I count eight International signings (NAME and Twins Top 30 Prospect rank):

1.)  EMMANUEL RODRIGUEZ  (#3)

2.)  DANNY DE ANDRADE (#10)

3.)  JOSE RODRIGUEZ (#12)

4.)  JOSE SALAS (#17) Drafted by Marlins, but acquired in Luis Arraez trade

5.)  RICARDO OLIVAR (#21)

6.)  YASSER MERCEDES (#22)

7.)  BYRON CHOURIO (#26) Drafted by Marlins, but acquired in Luis Arraez trade

8.)  YUNIOR SEVERINO (#28)

Plus we had Yennier Cano (traded for Jorge Lopez) who was pretty successful last year for the O's.  And of course Kepler and Polonco are former International signings.  I probably missed some guys too, but if I did, I'm sure someone else will chime in.  Anyway - I'm actually surprised at how many of these guys show up as top 30 team prospects.  

They weren't all signed in the same year. I was just pointing out that 5 years later expect that only 2 of these signings matter.

Player Name / Signing Year

Emmanuel Rodriguez 2019

Danny De Andrade 2020

Jose Rodriguez 2022

Ricardo Olivar 2019

Yasser Mercedes 2022

Yunior Severino 2016 (ATL, signed by the Twins in 2017)

 

[Sielk]

15 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

Thanks your right, I guess I've been frustrated with how things have been run.  It'll take too many years for a young normal Latin international prospect to ripen into a full-fledged catcher. So this draft is basically nonessential unless you want to develop a steady pipeline (which is not a bad idea). But does nothing for our current need.

Well, truth be told, their recent track record in IFA has been disappointing. We can discuss endlessly about the right strategy but fact is that since their big 2009 class, the Twins have signed Arráez and a few current prospects that are promising (especially ERod) and... that's it? Not great...

Obviously they shared that sentiment, hence the firing of Guerrero and getting Roman Barinas instead. But patience will be required there, as Barinas is probably working on the handshake deals for 2026 right now. Still, we gotta start somewhere, right?

As for current need, do we have one? I realize that you greatly value catcher defense, so Ryan Jeffers probably isn't the catcher of your dreams. But, as I mentioned, he vastly improved his throwing and I think you can make a legit argument that he is the best offensive catcher in baseball. And having a legit offensive threat at a position where the vast majority of teams get almost nothing, does carry a lot of value.

Also, whatever you think about his defense, consider that the Twins still had one of the better pitching staffs in the majors in 2023...

[Kenny Powers]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

They weren't all signed in the same year. I was just pointing out that 5 years later expect that only 2 of these signings matter.

Player Name / Signing Year

Emmanuel Rodriguez 2019

Danny De Andrade 2020

Jose Rodriguez 2022

Ricardo Olivar 2019

Yasser Mercedes 2022

Yunior Severino 2016 (ATL, signed by the Twins in 2017)

 

I think you have to be especially patient with International draft prospects since many of them are signed as 16 or 17 year olds.  Using Kepler and Polanco as examples....it took each about 7 years to establish themselves as MLB players.  But they were still only 22 (Polanco) or 23 years old (Kepler) when they finally did become MLB regulars.

I'll bring up Yennier Cano again because he was an exception (signed as a 25 year old) and contributed on the MLB level within a couple years.  But even he didn't have any success until last year (age 29).

[jorgenswest]

The Athletic reported the Twins were listed among teams impacted by age fraud with internationals signings from the Dominican Republic. No details about the players were included. Nor were there comments from the teams.

 

[Sielk]

The Twins announced a few more signings:

 

[Sielk]

On 1/29/2024 at 12:09 AM, jorgenswest said:

The Athletic reported the Twins were listed among teams impacted by age fraud with internationals signings from the Dominican Republic. No details about the players were included. Nor were there comments from the teams.

 

It should be noted that the article made it sound as if this was about a player (or players) the Twins hadn't officially signed yet. So it's likely that we never even heard heard the name in connection with the Twins and it's not about one of our current prospects.

(Which obviously doesn't guarantee that no shady stuff ever happened with a player we actually signed, but there's is no evidence for that.)

[Sielk]

Looks like the Twins have another big signing:

Here is a little more info and video:

 

 

 

[nicksaviking]

The Twins signed a Cuban player?!?!?!?! 

They seemed to show no interest in those players since the Oliva days.

[jkcarew]

5 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

The Twins signed a Cuban player?!?!?!?! 

They seemed to show no interest in those players since the Oliva days.

I have no idea how this works these days. In previous years a team would have to wait for (or help) a player get out of Cuba.

Now a Cuban player can sign, leave, and join an MLB-affiliated minor league team whenever?

[jkcarew]

On 2/1/2024 at 10:13 AM, Sielk said:

It should be noted that the article made it sound as if this was about a player (or players) the Twins hadn't officially signed yet. So it's likely that we never even heard heard the name in connection with the Twins and it's not about one of our current prospects.

(Which obviously doesn't guarantee that no shady stuff ever happened with a player we actually signed, but there's is no evidence for that.)

I’m pretty sure the Twins were performing bone tests to mitigate this risk at least going back as far as Sano’s signing. He signed at 16. I think his results were reported as something like 16-17 or 16-18 (a range). Like all technology, I assume the test are more accurate now than then.

Sad that it’s come to this, but when you look at the circumstances of most of these families, and then look at the money involved….just an overwhelming incentive for misrepresentation. And, in many cases they are ADVISED to misrepresent.

[Sielk]

21 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

The Twins signed a Cuban player?!?!?!?! 

They seemed to show no interest in those players since the Oliva days.

Their biggest signing from last year's period, Ariel Castro, is also Cuban. Maybe they're getting into it again?

16 minutes ago, jkcarew said:

I have no idea how this works these days. In previous years a team would have to wait for (or help) a player get out of Cuba.

Now a Cuban player can sign, leave, and join an MLB-affiliated minor league team whenever?

They still have to go to the DR or another place first, can't sign directly from Cuba. However, I get the impression that many Cuban prospects now go to the DR when they're only 14-15 years old. And then, two years later, they sign together with all the other 16- and 17-year-olds, like Castro did.

Hernández is obviously different. I wonder where he will start his pro career. The DSL would maybe make for a smoother transition to pro ball, but he would be old for that league. The reporter who tweeted about him above also called him advanced at the plate, so maybe he is playing stateside right away? Would be cool.

[Seth Stohs]

On 2/15/2024 at 1:41 PM, jkcarew said:

I have no idea how this works these days. In previous years a team would have to wait for (or help) a player get out of Cuba.

Now a Cuban player can sign, leave, and join an MLB-affiliated minor league team whenever?

Yennier Cano?