Is Frankie Montas A Viable Option For The 2024 Twins?

[DocBauer]

A brief recap on Montas:

His first couple of seasons with the A's, 2017-2020 was a mixed bag of limited IP...one in which he nearly hit 100...where he was basically good for 2yr, and poor for 2yrs. In 2021 and 2022 he took a major step forward, even earning a handful of Cy Young votes in '21. He was very good the first half of that 2022 year through 19 games before being traded to the Yankees. After that trade, it was all downhill. While I didn't take the time to delve deeply, it appears he may have been hiding an injury before the trade. He had arthroscopic surgery in 2023 on his right throwing shoulder for a labrum cleanup. 

The key words are "arthroscopic" and "cleanup". Not too bad, right? The other key words are "shoulder" and "labrum". At this moment, only the Yankees and Montas's doctors probably understand fully the extent of said cleanup procedure. But it should be pointed out he performed rehab at AAA, and even made a brief appearance at the end of the season for the Yankees, tossing an effective 1.1 inning. 

THE BAD:

Don't we always shudder a bit when we hear the terms "shoulder" and "labrum"? It can set of sirens.

THE GOOD:

"Arthroscopic" and "cleanup" seem to mitigate some concern. He won't turn 31yo until after 2024 turns over. He was a top starter in 2021 and the first half of 2022 that could slot near the top of the rotation IF healthy. He ONLY made $5M in 2023, so there's no way he's getting a huge contract for 2024 based on previous earnings and coming off a missed season.

WHY SHOULD THE TWINS BE IN?:

Again, IF his medicals check out, his 2021 and first half of 2022 and potential to still be very good remains. He MIGHT be had on a 1yr deal, though, of course, he and his agent are going to be looking for more. But how about a 1yr deal for $12-14M, at least doubling his last deal, plus. MAYBE, the 1yr with a second year for $15-18M team option that vests with some easy to hit incentives, maybe a $2M buyout just in case. And how about a third year option for $21M with a player option? That means he's probably tripling his career earnings over 2yrs and can still, potentially, be a FA at 33yo for another deal if he remains healthy and productive.

THE RISK?:

INSTEAD of making a trade of talent to acquire a young-ish arm under control, they are betting that they are the proverbial winner that happens every single season where someone gets that rebound arm that is talented and is ready to go. And the structure I've laid out gives him to the Twins for 2yrs, with potential to keep and extend. BUT, if he doesn't come back fully, they shot blanks for 2024 and might have to look at a mid season trade. 

THE REWARD?:

The Twins get a rebounding arm who slots right behind Lopez. If they can work in the 2nd year of higher value, they have him for 2yrs! THEN, they still have the option to move Polanco...and his $10M...for help elsewhere. There's been a lot of conversation on the boards about a deal to Milwaukee for Devin Williams to add to our pen...(and you know who you are, lol)...and we suddenly have one of the best pens in all of MLB, potentially. Since the Brewers have a CF crunch, it's also possible the Twins come away, possibly with a throw in, with a useful 4th OF/CF depth option.

I think this actually works IF the Twins believe Montas is good to go. And NO DOUBT there is some risk here. AGAIN, every single year there's at least one guy, if not more, who rebounds from injury or a poor year where they just suddenly re-establish themselves as a top pitcher. 

In this scenario, the FO might turn out to be very smart. Add a quality SP with great ability on the cheap, keep the prospects, add to the pen, still have a little $ to spend if we accept a potential $140M payroll, and see what happens.  The downside is a mediocre arm, but a strong pen, Varland in the rotation, and making a mid season trade.

Again, I'm just spitballing here and throwing things against the wall. But this kind of makes sense to me to a certain degree.

[nicksaviking]

I think he slots behind Ober and Ryan too. His numbers away from the Oakland Colosseum are #5 starter quality. 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

11 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

I think he slots behind Ober and Ryan too. His numbers away from the Oakland Colosseum are #5 starter quality. 

I’m not a huge fan of signing a 5th starter, but his away numbers in 2021 and 2022 slot firmly in the #2 or #3 starter range, comparable to Sonny Gray. 1.21 WHIP ranked 82, 3.67 ERA ranked 71, accumulating 6 WAR. If the Twins can get this kind of production from him, he’d be a really nice addition to the rotation.

its a big IF, but a relatively cheap one

 

[Eris]

I would take a flier on Frankie Montas, but not at $10-14 million. That seems too high a risk for someone with shoulder injuries 2 seasons in a row. It would need to be an incentive based contract.  An offer would need to be attractive enough at the high end that he would take a lower base. Something like 5 million base, bonus dollars for innings and bonus dollars for position in Cy Young. Such that if he has a very strong year he would make 20 - 25 million. 
 

Frankie Montas had been on the DL earlier in the year of the trade with shoulder inflammation. I think his trade to the Yankees was similar to the Tyler Mahle trade. Both had been on the DL earlier, the acquiring team’s desperate for pitching before the playoffs made the trade and they lost big.  The Yankees made out worse as they also traded Jordan Montgomery to the Cardinals to make room in the rotation and Montgomery pitched very well after leaving NY. 

[Mike Sixel]

He's been my prediction all off season. Not sure I love it....

[Cory Engelhardt]

I would love to have him in our rotation

[Parfigliano]

I suppose they could do worse.

[Doctor Wu]

I recall a few years back, before he went to the Yankees, when many Twins fans were hopeful that we could acquire Montas. But, then the injuries came and he wasn't the same pitcher. Of course we are all wondering if he can rebound and pitch like he did 3 years ago. Is it worth the risk? Sure, it depends on the amount of the contract and the length, but it sounds like a reasonable gamble for the Twins.

[Brock Beauchamp]

A fine but underwhelming option. 

[dxpavelka]

11 hours ago, Doctor Wu said:

I recall a few years back, before he went to the Yankees, when many Twins fans were hopeful that we could acquire Montas. But, then the injuries came and he wasn't the same pitcher. Of course we are all wondering if he can rebound and pitch like he did 3 years ago. Is it worth the risk? Sure, it depends on the amount of the contract and the length, but it sounds like a reasonable gamble for the Twins.

Usually the injuries occur after the Twins acquire the player.

[h2oface]

Please don't pull a Mahle and assume Montas is OK. It will be a waste of money and time.

Clevinger has a rebel personality, has made some bad choices during the pandemic,

https://www.ksat.com/sports/2020/08/25/fresh-start-clevinger-back-with-Guardians-after-demotion/

the lost 2021 with TJ surgery recovery, and there is the closed investigation with no discipline imposed in 2023......

https://soxmachine.com/2023/03/regarding-mike-clevinger-who-is-no-fun-to-regard/

While the FO forgives cheating (as do most fans if they play for the Twins), I don't see them looking past a possible "mis-fit" in the clubhouse.  But he might be the best of the lot for the money they won't be willing to spend. 

 

 

 

 

[AlwaysinModeration]

To answer the question, no, he’s not viable.  Signed by the Reds for $16mm, with a $20mm mutual option.