The Twins Should Not Trade Max Kepler

[Hunter McCall]

2 minutes ago, gman said:

I'm hunting a trade for Kepler. This is probably his high point for trade value since 2019 and take that peak for what it's worth. Would they really try to resign him next year for 3/50. I doubt it. If no trade shows up, keep him but plan on trading him as soon as practicable.

Who plays the second corner spot if you trade Kepler? What return are you getting for Kepler? Two very valuable questions to answer.

[DJL44]

2 hours ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

I disagree as he would not be able to provide a QO pick for the acquiring team if they acquire him at the deadline.  The acquiring team also would only get 1/2 of a season of his services instead of a full season.  That he could regress from his second half performance also factors in.  He is definitely worth more at this time than at the deadline.

I doubt any team wants to pay Max Kepler $21M for 2025. The Twins certainly don't and won't offer him a QO. If there is another team who believes Max Kepler is worth a QO the Twins should find that team and trade him now. A team valuing Max that highly is sure to give something good in return - first round pick level talent. I don't believe that team exists.

[RpR]

2 hours ago, mnfireman said:

Wallner struggled in the play-offs, but slashed .354/.456/.646 (1.102 OPS) with 3 HR, 12 RBI and 16/8 K/BB ratio over his last 17 games.

He has also shown a willingness to work on his weaknesses, as he became an acceptable defender last season and was constantly working on fixing his swing after the league started exposing a weak spot. Kind of the player a team needs...

Left field is his for now as no one else is better at this point, which is sad.

Cannon arm , IF it goes where it is supposed to; runs POOR routes that speed can make up at times.

At that, watching Kepler early in the season, the hustle that makes him a top rank fielder was missing , OFTEN.

After the AS break, his hustle returned along with his bat.

[Brandon]

I just wanted to point out in 2022 Kepler had an .805 OPS on May 31.  and from what I remember he played through with an injury the rest of the season.  I think the Twins even shut him down in September.  So I think a healthy Kepler will be able to produce an .800 OPS moving forward.

[DJL44]

1 minute ago, Brandon said:

So I think a healthy Kepler will be able to produce an .800 OPS moving forward.

Players don't usually get healthier in their 30s.

[Riverbrian]

Version A of Max Kepler is what he did after the all star break. Version A is an absolute bargain and irreplaceable. He was one of the best 20 hitters in all of baseball after the all star break. 

Version B of Max Kepler is what he did in the 2.5 years prior. Version B is absolutely replaceable and so replaceable that it doesn't even matter if you adequately replace him.

If Larnach fails to replace Kepler for example. it doesn't matter because you are in the same spot. Either way... you have a guy occupying a roster spot that needs replacing.        

Which Kepler are we talking about? 

Which way would I bet? I don't know and I'm happy that the front office has to place that bet and not me. 

Besides I'm not allowed to bet on Kepler. I would have cut him in June. 

 

[Blyleven2011]

No question  , everyone loves keplers defense ...

His value has risen since last years off season , the Twins tried to trade him during last off season and didn't find a trade worth taking ...

Now his 2nd half hitting  has increased his value and he's still a twin  , do we value Kepler more than other teams , of course we do , will other teams look at his 2nd half hitting  and think he has found his secret to success and value him more than last off season , I don't know ...

Someone mentioned  that offense is the best defense , I personally would like both ...

Can he duplicate his 2nd half of last season  that definitely helped our offense , time will tell  if he is still even on our roster and if he stays on the roster , i do hope for his defense and offense to help carry us towardstwins win ...

I hope Bauer signs with someone else so Kepler can have 3 homer games  ...

Sit back and relax , our fo moves slowly ...

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

20 minutes ago, Hunter McCall said:

Who plays the second corner spot if you trade Kepler?

Well, the Twins already committed malpractice in 2023 by starting Larnach in left, so they could go with Larnach again in 2024 and commit even more malpractice. 🙂

[Hunter McCall]

5 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

Version A of Max Kepler is what he did after the all star break. Version A is an absolute bargain and irreplaceable. He was one of the best 20 hitters in all of baseball after the all star break. 

Version B of Max Kepler is what he did in the 2.5 years prior. Version B is absolutely replaceable and so replaceable that it doesn't even matter if you adequately replace him.

If Larnach fails to replace Kepler for example. it doesn't matter because you are in the same spot. Either way... you have a guy occupying a roster spot that needs replacing.        

Which Kepler are we talking about? 

Which way would I bet? I don't know and I'm happy that the front office has to place that bet and not me. 

Besides I'm not allowed to bet on Kepler. I would have cut him in June. 

 

Kepler has produced 2 plus WAR every full year of his career. He's provided value even when he doesn't hit.

[Riverbrian]

5 minutes ago, Brandon said:

I just wanted to point out in 2022 Kepler had an .805 OPS and from what I remember he played through with an injury the rest of the season.  I think the Twins even shut him down in September.  So I think a healthy Kepler will be able to produce an .800 OPS moving forward.

You could be right - He had a .926 OPS post all-star break. 203 AB's. 91 Games - Twins Record - 45 Wins 46 Losses

He had a .688 OPS pre all-star break. 235 AB's. 71 Games - Twins Record - 42 Wins 29 Losses 

Reported Injuries all in the first half

April 3 - Knee - Disabled list from April 8 to April 15

May 11 - Hamstring - Disabled list from May 13 to May 29

June 1 - Migraine

[Hunter McCall]

3 minutes ago, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

Well, the Twins already committed malpractice in 2023 by starting Larnach in left, so they could go with Larnach again in 2024 and commit even more malpractice. 🙂

Are you arguing that Trevor Larnach is better than Kepler? Are you arguing that the Twins will improve by trading Kepler for scraps? If you're a huge believer in Trevor Larnach then your stance makes sense but if you don't think he'll be good then it's just odd.

[Riverbrian]

3 minutes ago, Hunter McCall said:

Kepler has produced 2 plus WAR every full year of his career. He's provided value even when he doesn't hit.

I don't believe in WAR.

Defensive Metrics are over weighted. His defense can be replaced. 

[mnfireman]

5 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

You could be right - He had a .926 OPS post all-star break. 203 AB's. 91 Games - Twins Record - 45 Wins 46 Losses

He had a .688 OPS pre all-star break. 235 AB's. 71 Games - Twins Record - 42 Wins 29 Losses 

Reported Injuries all in the first half

April 3 - Knee - Disabled list from April 8 to April 15

May 11 - Hamstring - Disabled list from May 13 to May 29

June 1 - Migraine

Twins record - pre AS break 45-46; post AS break 42-29....

[Brandon]

8 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

You could be right - He had a .926 OPS post all-star break. 203 AB's. 91 Games - Twins Record - 45 Wins 46 Losses

He had a .688 OPS pre all-star break. 235 AB's. 71 Games - Twins Record - 42 Wins 29 Losses 

Reported Injuries all in the first half

April 3 - Knee - Disabled list from April 8 to April 15

May 11 - Hamstring - Disabled list from May 13 to May 29

June 1 - Migraine

I typo’d my comment above and fixed it.  In 2022 as of May 31 Kepler had an .805 OPS and played through an injury the rest of the season and was shut down in September that year….The May 31 is kinda important in that statement.

[farmerguychris]

When you have a player who has a history of being 'just a guy', and then turns hot while he still has positive value in trade - I say trade him while he's hot before he turns back into 'just a guy'.  Could Larnach or anyone else in the organization be as good as Kepler was in the second half of last year?  Probably not.  Is there also a high likelihood that even Kepler himself will turn back into a pumpkin like he has been most of his recent career?  Absolutely - trade him while he's hot. If we need to trim payroll, and its very likely Kepler won't stay hot like he was in the playoff run - we can get another 'guy' at a much lower price tag.  I've been a fan of Kepler as much as anyone -but bigger fan of the team than the guy.

[hitterscount]

How close are Brooks Lee and Austin Martin to big league level? If anyone is counting on Buxton and Kirloff they are in for a letdown. Neither has shown the ability to remotely stay healthy much less be everyday players.

If Lee and Martin are close you need to look at moving both Kepler and Polanco if it improves the rotation.  Kepler has shown over and over that the end of the '23 season was an outlier. I also believe that you have to consider moving Lewis to the outfield if it improves the team. The depth is in the infield, Lewis could be hurt anywhere at anytime, that shouldn't be a consideration if he is capable of playing in the OF. 

However, trading to save money is a really poor approach.  

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

1 hour ago, Hunter McCall said:

Are you arguing that Trevor Larnach is better than Kepler?

In terms of Dollars per WAR, or bang for your buck? Sure I would make that argument. However, I don’t think either Kepler or Larnach is part of the future core of this team—Wallner maybe, but definitely not Kepler.  (Disclaimer: no ill will towards Max)

[jmlease1]

1 hour ago, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

Well, the Twins already committed malpractice in 2023 by starting Larnach in left, so they could go with Larnach again in 2024 and commit even more malpractice. 🙂

Except in 2023 the plan was to start Kirilloff at 1B and Gallo in LF, but Kirilloff took longer to recover from his unusual wrist surgery than they had hoped. Now, that may have been a different sort of malpractice (signing Gallo for $11M) but at the time it wasn't crazy to have Larnach in the OF and Gallo at 1B, with Wallner pushing in AAA. The malpractice would be after an unimpressive season from Larnach and no one knocking on the door in AAA relying on internal depth to step in by trading Kepler. We don't have a corner OF in AAA knocking on the door going into this season; the next wave of OF in the system are in AA or lower (Rodriguez, Rosario, Jenkins, etc)

The situations are different, which is why it makes more sense to keep Kepler unless he's needed to be part of a significant trade for pitching. he's not untouchable to me if a team wants him as a real piece in a deal for a starter, but I'm not dealing him for prospects or searching out someone to drop his contract on.

[Hunter McCall]

38 minutes ago, farmerguychris said:

When you have a player who has a history of being 'just a guy', and then turns hot while he still has positive value in trade - I say trade him while he's hot before he turns back into 'just a guy'.  Could Larnach or anyone else in the organization be as good as Kepler was in the second half of last year?  Probably not.  Is there also a high likelihood that even Kepler himself will turn back into a pumpkin like he has been most of his recent career?  Absolutely - trade him while he's hot. If we need to trim payroll, and its very likely Kepler won't stay hot like he was in the playoff run - we can get another 'guy' at a much lower price tag.  I've been a fan of Kepler as much as anyone -but bigger fan of the team than the guy.

Even when he's been bad he's been fine. You won't find a starting caliber power outfielder for less than the $10M that he's making and I personally heading into 2024 with Larnach as a locked in starter is not wise for a team coming off a division title.

[jmlease1]

8 minutes ago, hitterscount said:

How close are Brooks Lee and Austin Martin to big league level? If anyone is counting on Buxton and Kirloff they are in for a letdown. Neither has shown the ability to remotely stay healthy much less be everyday players.

If Lee and Martin are close you need to look at moving both Kepler and Polanco if it improves the rotation.  Kepler has shown over and over that the end of the '23 season was an outlier. I also believe that you have to consider moving Lewis to the outfield if it improves the team. The depth is in the infield, Lee could be hurt anywhere at anytime, that shouldn't be a consideration if he is capable of playing in the OF. 

However, trading to save money is a really poor approach.  

Lee and Martin are close, but ideally they're guys that start in AAA and are the first wave of replacements for the inevitable injury bug dings some guys and can get their feet wet filling in for a few weeks to show whether they can Pipp someone. But neither are 1B, which is where Kirilloff is going to be locked in (and after a minor cleanup procedure in his shoulder and no wrist problems for the first time in several years...I have more faith in Kirilloff than you)

Lewis is not moving to the OF. period. It's doesn't matter how many people think it's a good idea on the message boards, it is not going to happen. I doubt it would happen even if Buxton, Gordon, Castro, and Martin all got hurt. They are committed to him in the infield and are not sliding him into the OF. Everyone needs to move on from this, because it is never going to happen. Never.

[Hunter McCall]

12 minutes ago, hitterscount said:

How close are Brooks Lee and Austin Martin to big league level? If anyone is counting on Buxton and Kirloff they are in for a letdown. Neither has shown the ability to remotely stay healthy much less be everyday players.

If Lee and Martin are close you need to look at moving both Kepler and Polanco if it improves the rotation.  Kepler has shown over and over that the end of the '23 season was an outlier. I also believe that you have to consider moving Lewis to the outfield if it improves the team. The depth is in the infield, Lee could be hurt anywhere at anytime, that shouldn't be a consideration if he is capable of playing in the OF. 

However, trading to save money is a really poor approach.  

Personally I think Lee is further away than most people believe. I wouldn't be surprised at all if we don't see much Lee this year. Martin is likely closer but I doubt they want to play him as a permanent corner outfielder. Plus turning two starting positions over to unproven rookies is beyond risky. (Yes I understand that three rookies ended up starting in 2023 but none of them were given the starting job on opening day and all of them earned those jobs. None of them were expected to start right off the bat with the exception of maybe Royce Lewis after he returned from his ACL injury.)

[Hunter McCall]

14 minutes ago, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

In terms of Dollars per WAR, or bang for your buck? Sure I would make that argument. However, I don’t think either Kepler or Larnach is part of the future core of this team—Wallner maybe, but definitely not Kepler.  (Disclaimer: no ill will towards Max)

But why can't Kepler help in 2024? Obviously he's not in the long term plans but he's a valuable starter. According to FanGraphs, Kepler has outplayed his $10M salary in every single season.

[Hunter McCall]

10 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

Except in 2023 the plan was to start Kirilloff at 1B and Gallo in LF, but Kirilloff took longer to recover from his unusual wrist surgery than they had hoped. Now, that may have been a different sort of malpractice (signing Gallo for $11M) but at the time it wasn't crazy to have Larnach in the OF and Gallo at 1B, with Wallner pushing in AAA. The malpractice would be after an unimpressive season from Larnach and no one knocking on the door in AAA relying on internal depth to step in by trading Kepler. We don't have a corner OF in AAA knocking on the door going into this season; the next wave of OF in the system are in AA or lower (Rodriguez, Rosario, Jenkins, etc)

The situations are different, which is why it makes more sense to keep Kepler unless he's needed to be part of a significant trade for pitching. he's not untouchable to me if a team wants him as a real piece in a deal for a starter, but I'm not dealing him for prospects or searching out someone to drop his contract on.

This explained what I was trying to explain but probably in a better way lol... Thank you!

[Hunter McCall]

6 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

Lee and Martin are close, but ideally they're guys that start in AAA and are the first wave of replacements for the inevitable injury bug dings some guys and can get their feet wet filling in for a few weeks to show whether they can Pipp someone. But neither are 1B, which is where Kirilloff is going to be locked in (and after a minor cleanup procedure in his shoulder and no wrist problems for the first time in several years...I have more faith in Kirilloff than you)

Lewis is not moving to the OF. period. It's doesn't matter how many people think it's a good idea on the message boards, it is not going to happen. I doubt it would happen even if Buxton, Gordon, Castro, and Martin all got hurt. They are committed to him in the infield and are not sliding him into the OF. Everyone needs to move on from this, because it is never going to happen. Never.

Also well said. Lewis will play third base for the foreseeable future. When Correa ages out at shortstop, I think they'll swap places, but Lewis will always be an infielder and there is zero chance they move him to a corner outfield spot.

[Riverbrian]

1 hour ago, mnfireman said:

Twins record - pre AS break 45-46; post AS break 42-29....

Yep

I could be wrong but I am guessing that you re-typed the records from my post to express the Twins turnaround coinciding with Kepler's turn around.   

I don't believe one player by himself was the reason for the turnaround but... to stay in that lane of traffic... the reverse would also be true. Twins struggling coincides with Kepler struggling. 

This bring us back to which Kepler do we get in 2024? The one that turned around or the one who was struggling? 

I don't know... I'm glad I don't have to take responsibility for it. 

[mnfireman]

2 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

Yep

I could be wrong but I am guessing that you re-typed the records from my post to express the Twins turnaround coinciding with Kepler's turn around.   

I don't believe one player by himself was the reason for the turnaround but... to stay in that lane of traffic... the reverse would also be true. Twins struggling coincides with Kepler struggling. 

This bring us back to which Kepler do we get in 2024? The one that turned around or the one who was struggling? 

I don't know... I'm glad I don't have to take responsibility for it. 

Close!! I had looked these #'s up earlier due someone suggesting that the whole team had hit better after the AS break;

Pre AS break slash - .232/.309/.400 (.709 OPS,) MLB OPS Rank #22

Post AS break slash - .258/.346/.463 (.809 OPS) MLB OPS Rank #3

So it was a team effort, not an individual player

[Riverbrian]

1 hour ago, Brandon said:

I typo’d my comment above and fixed it.  In 2022 as of May 31 Kepler had an .805 OPS and played through an injury the rest of the season and was shut down in September that year….The May 31 is kinda important in that statement.

It's really hard for me or any of us to make judgements on injuries nagging or severe and what it does to performance on the baseball field. 

The only thing that I can say from my chair is this. If injury... nagging or severe is causing a drop in performance... the manager must get him out of the lineup and on to the disabled list if necessary. 

There is no justification for absorbing poor performance because of injury. Playing hurt is not romantic to me. Logan Morrison played every day and was terrible almost every day for us.

Then the reports came out that he had been fighting a hip impingement that people say is extremely painful. 

OK... the hip impingement explains the .644 OPS... But it doesn't explain why the manager kept turning to a guy who was in so much pain that he had a .644 OPS. 

Injury will never really justify things for me. 

[Riverbrian]

7 minutes ago, mnfireman said:

Close!! I had looked these #'s up earlier due someone suggesting that the whole team had hit better after the AS break;

Pre AS break slash - .232/.309/.400 (.709 OPS,) MLB OPS Rank #22

Post AS break slash - .258/.346/.463 (.809 OPS) MLB OPS Rank #3

So it was a team effort, not an individual player

We had to hit better after the all star break... We just had to... It couldn't get worse... The first week of June... I was ready to set the dugout on fire.  

I didn't because I didn't want to be known as an arsonist.   

[Riverbrian]

Just a note to all: 

I really don't want to criticize Kepler anymore. I want to believe in a great 2024 for him. He is one of us and I pull for him. 

As frustrated as I have been with his performance for 2.5 years and I've expressed it too much...  I will also say... I believe his post all-star break 2024 was top 20 in all of baseball. 

[Brandon]

17 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

It's really hard for me or any of us to make judgements on injuries nagging or severe and what it does to performance on the baseball field. 

The only thing that I can say from my chair is this. If injury... nagging or severe is causing a drop in performance... the manager must get him out of the lineup and on to the disabled list if necessary. 

There is no justification for absorbing poor performance because of injury. Playing hurt is not romantic to me. Logan Morrison played every day and was terrible almost every day for us.

Then the reports came out that he had been fighting a hip impingement that people say is extremely painful. 

OK... the hip impingement explains the .644 OPS... But it doesn't explain why the manager kept turning to a guy who was in so much pain that he had a .644 OPS. 

Injury will never really justify things for me. 

in 2022 everyone was on the DL that year if I remember the Twins had the 2nd most DL days in all of baseball so having Kepler try to play through it while not a great idea, it was probably needed because everyone else was hurt.