Why Kepler is not likely to get traded

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

I was thinking about this more lately.   I could see Polanco being flipped, but if Kepler just performs the same as he did last year and averages his performance out (instead of poor spring hot late summer fall)  he is easily a 3  to 4 year 20 million AAV player.  That is another Qualifying offer pick.  A team like the Yankees would not get that value if he were to leave they would need to resign,  that also means they would have to give up a very good compensation to get him.   

We currently have an outfield that is currently not in a stable position.  I think this team is big on accumulating as many "free assets"  as they can, and the draft compensation from the qualifying picks will continue to be a big part of their strategy moving forward.  Polanco right now unless he has a really strong year next year, just does not look like a player that would command a 50+ mill contract.   Plus he is in the infield where we have a lot more depth.  

 

 

[GKuehl]

I hadn't really though much about Kepler potentially getting the Qualifying Offer after this season, but it's an interesting idea. The question comes down to whether the Twins would be content with Kepler accepting a 1-year, $20 million contract after next season. Even if Kepler plays as well next season as he did this season, I can't see the front office wanting Kepler back for $20 million, especially if the self-imposed payroll limitations are likely to continue beyond next season because of the collapse of traditional sports broadcasting. 

Over the last 3 seasons, Kepler has averaged 2.3 WAR. Based on the standard estimation that each WAR is worth approximately $9 million, that equates to $20.7 million in value, on average, over the last 3 seasons. That number falls right in line with what the Qualifying Offer salary projects to be next year. With the team's budgetary limitations, would the Twins be happy bringing Kepler back for roughly 1/6 of their overall team salary? I don't think so, and there isn't much excess value that would make Kepler a particularly tradeable asset were he to accept the QO. 

Considering Emmanuel Rodriguez should, hopefully, be on the cusp of the majors by the beginning of 2025, I don't think the Twins would be willing to risk making Kepler the QO in the event he would accept it and tie up a large amount of the team's 2025 budget. 

 

 

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

37 minutes ago, GKuehl said:

I hadn't really though much about Kepler potentially getting the Qualifying Offer after this season, but it's an interesting idea. The question comes down to whether the Twins would be content with Kepler accepting a 1-year, $20 million contract after next season. Even if Kepler plays as well next season as he did this season, I can't see the front office wanting Kepler back for $20 million, especially if the self-imposed payroll limitations are likely to continue beyond next season because of the collapse of traditional sports broadcasting. 

Over the last 3 seasons, Kepler has averaged 2.3 WAR. Based on the standard estimation that each WAR is worth approximately $9 million, that equates to $20.7 million in value, on average, over the last 3 seasons. That number falls right in line with what the Qualifying Offer salary projects to be next year. With the team's budgetary limitations, would the Twins be happy bringing Kepler back for roughly 1/6 of their overall team salary? I don't think so, and there isn't much excess value that would make Kepler a particularly tradeable asset were he to accept the QO. 

Considering Emmanuel Rodriguez should, hopefully, be on the cusp of the majors by the beginning of 2025, I don't think the Twins would be willing to risk making Kepler the QO in the event he would accept it and tie up a large amount of the team's 2025 budget. 

 

 

I believe on a 1 year deal he is worth closer to 23 to 25 million.  A team is willing to go higher on a 1 year deal than a multi year deal.  It is basically the strategy that Trevor Bauer took.  It really comes down to what type of player is Kepler next year.  If he just averages out last years statistics into this year he is well worth a qualifying offer.   I personally think he figured something out so will likely be well worth the qualifying offer.  If that is the case it will just come down to health.  

[tony&rodney]

Kepler plays good defense and has been pretty much average throughout his career with some peaks and valleys. If Max is a part of a package of players sent out to return a guy who makes the team better, the Twins will trade Kepler. Much like last year, the Twins are not going to give him away. He would be among the top outfielders if he were a free agent this year.

There are three factors that will determine whether the Twins offer Kepler a qualifying offer after 2024. First, the state of the media money influences the limits of any budget. Second, the emergence of young players and prospects as solid contributing players (Wallner, Larnach, Castro, Martin, Rodriguez). Third, how does Kepler himself look during the entirety of the 2024 season. 

I would not be surprised by any of the possible outcomes for Kepler. I don't believe the Twins will be tearing down the roster due to financial concerns. I do think they will be careful about who is added and how much salary is added to the current number.

[Mike Sixel]

I don't think they deal him because they like the depth and don't want to deplete that......the QO only happens if he plays like second half Kepler, otherwise, no chance, IMO.

[DJL44]

49 minutes ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

I believe on a 1 year deal he is worth closer to 23 to 25 million.  

Counterpoint: Jason Heyward 1 year $9M.

[2wins87]

I tend to think Kepler stays put as well, but more for depth chart reasons than contract/QO.

While it is true that a QO compensation pick is worth less to a revenue sharing payee like the Yankees, I think a team like the Yankees is more interested in exclusive bargaining for an extension.  If Kepler's side indicates that they are interested in signing a somewhat team friendly extension, that could have at least as much value as a QO compensation pick would have for a revenue sharing recipient.

I think they just won't want to rely on Larnach/Castro/Gordon in a corner spot.  Kepler is still a cheap solution, and I don't really see a clear path for them to fill his spot with a similar level of production and value, while still getting a good enough return for Kepler.  Maybe I don't see the creative path, but as the roster is currently constructed, I think it just makes sense to hold on to Kepler.

 

[2wins87]

1 minute ago, DJL44 said:

Counterpoint: Jason Heyward 1 year $9M.

Heyward is projected by steamer for 1 WAR, Kepler is projected for 2.3 WAR.  That would put Kepler's valuation right around $20 million, maybe a bit more if a team has a more favorable projection.  And presumably the Dodger's model isn't too far off from steamer, which perfectly explains why he got the contract he did.

I think Kepler will be borderline for a QO.  If he plays close to his second half for a full season he might even be a no-brainer for a QO.  Most likely he'll have a bit of regression and be a pretty close call.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

2 hours ago, 2wins87 said:

Heyward is projected by steamer for 1 WAR, Kepler is projected for 2.3 WAR.  That would put Kepler's valuation right around $20 million, maybe a bit more if a team has a more favorable projection.  And presumably the Dodger's model isn't too far off from steamer, which perfectly explains why he got the contract he did.

I think Kepler will be borderline for a QO.  If he plays close to his second half for a full season he might even be a no-brainer for a QO.  Most likely he'll have a bit of regression and be a pretty close call.

Kepler hit at over a .290 clip for 3 straight months.  Kepler has never done that before.  That looks repeatable,  and looks like more than just a small sample size.  Yes maybe he would be able to string together 3 months again like that,  but if strings together 5 months of .270 BA with a very respectable OPS that is definitely a 3 year 50+million contract.  He is swinging much more frequently 50% of the time, and making contact earlier in counts on better quality pitches than trying to hit borderline strikes protecting the plate.   Being aggressive at the plate can work and along with more confidence and less shift worked out well to end the season.  Now maybe pitchers will begin to throw more junk early in counts against him.  But if he lays off this you are getting into hitters counts and in even a better spot.   Even with the more aggressive approach he wasn't striking out at a significantly higher rate.   Just putting more balls in play with better contact, but not necessarily more power,  the homer rate actually dipped a bit.  

He doubled his hits from the prior year to right field, 12 to 24.  A mix of better contact and less shift.   

Kepler was well over a negative 1 war in the first 3 months.  He pulled in well over a 4 WAR to end the season.  You extrapolate that out and thats a hell of a player for a season.   8 WAR type player.  

[Mike Sixel]

2 hours ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

Kepler hit at over a .290 clip for 3 straight months.  Kepler has never done that before.  That looks repeatable,  and looks like more than just a small sample size.  Yes maybe he would be able to string together 3 months again like that,  but if strings together 5 months of .270 BA with a very respectable OPS that is definitely a 3 year 50+million contract.  He is swinging much more frequently 50% of the time, and making contact earlier in counts on better quality pitches than trying to hit borderline strikes protecting the plate.   Being aggressive at the plate can work and along with more confidence and less shift worked out well to end the season.  Now maybe pitchers will begin to throw more junk early in counts against him.  But if he lays off this you are getting into hitters counts and in even a better spot.   Even with the more aggressive approach he wasn't striking out at a significantly higher rate.   Just putting more balls in play with better contact, but not necessarily more power,  the homer rate actually dipped a bit.  

He doubled his hits from the prior year to right field, 12 to 24.  A mix of better contact and less shift.   

Kepler was well over a negative 1 war in the first 3 months.  He pulled in well over a 4 WAR to end the season.  You extrapolate that out and thats a hell of a player for a season.   8 WAR type player.  

He had a top five babip in play during that stretch. That's not repeatable by any means other than luck. I'm not saying he's got no value, I'm saying expecting him to out hit nearly everyone is unlikely to say the least

[nicksaviking]

If the roster allows it, I'd much rather keep Polanco over Kepler as year-in-year-out Polanco is the much more reliable hitter. While the Twins have several good hitters, they lack reliable hitters, and I think that unpredictability is the main cause of the lengthy slumps this team has seen the last several years.

Still, I think if they trade for top end starting pitching, they can use most of the free agent cash to sign a reliable bat making either or both more expendable.

[Doctor Wu]

13 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

If the roster allows it, I'd much rather keep Polanco over Kepler as year-in-year-out Polanco is the much more reliable hitter. While the Twins have several good hitters, they lack reliable hitters, and I think that unpredictability is the main cause of the lengthy slumps this team has seen the last several years.

Still, I think if they trade for top end starting pitching, they can use most of the free agent cash to sign a reliable bat making either or both more expendable.

Polanco is definitely the more reliable hitter, but his past injury history is still a concern for me, which is one reason I would rather trade him. 

[Doctor Wu]

18 hours ago, 2wins87 said:

I tend to think Kepler stays put as well, but more for depth chart reasons than contract/QO.

While it is true that a QO compensation pick is worth less to a revenue sharing payee like the Yankees, I think a team like the Yankees is more interested in exclusive bargaining for an extension.  If Kepler's side indicates that they are interested in signing a somewhat team friendly extension, that could have at least as much value as a QO compensation pick would have for a revenue sharing recipient.

I think they just won't want to rely on Larnach/Castro/Gordon in a corner spot.  Kepler is still a cheap solution, and I don't really see a clear path for them to fill his spot with a similar level of production and value, while still getting a good enough return for Kepler.  Maybe I don't see the creative path, but as the roster is currently constructed, I think it just makes sense to hold on to Kepler.

 

I can also see Kepler staying as a reliable starter or as  you say, a depth piece. And even though he had a very good second half of last season, I still don't see him as a player that will have that much trade value. Yeah, I get the WAR numbers and contract comparisons, but at his age, and with his streaky seasonal stats, I just can't see many other teams chomping at the bit to acquire him. 

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

17 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

He had a top five babip in play during that stretch. That's not repeatable by any means other than luck. I'm not saying he's got no value, I'm saying expecting him to out hit nearly everyone is unlikely to say the least

Mike I know he had bad luck before,  but in the prior 3 years he had the lowest babip of any player.  I didn't realize how bad his luck had been, but also how long it had lasted.  Maybe he will go on a 3 year stretch of good luck 😉. We do have to acknowledge that he is likely getting some help from less shift.  He will always be shifted but even 3 to 4 more singles raises the BA 10%.    

Kepler should be a .260/.330/.820 guy.   His WAR the last 3 years is 2.1, 2.2, 2.9.  He is also only had 1 year really below 2 (He was a 1 WAR,  another year he did have 1.9 but not significant difference for this discussion).     We like to downgrade players and look at their warts yet not really see how good they are.  The war shows a player that is a 20 mil player consistently whether he is hitting or not.   If he is hitting then he is an elite player.  If he has 4 years of 2+ WAR I can guarantee he will be qualifying offer.   

[William Malone]

Max Kepler also isn't worth that much in a trade. Non-star rental bats at non-premium positions don't net you more than a Single-A player with upside, but no guarantees to ever reach MLB. Think of Gio Urshela last year. Good player, but didn't get Twins much of a return. All it does is open up a roster spot and a few million bucks, which isn't enough to buy a high impact player. I think some fans are trapped in this idea he can get Twins a big league reliever. But the truth is, he only gets you a Single-A guy, then you're putting many eggs in a Larcnach basket.

[Trov]

I do not see him getting traded mainly because his value is not super high.  He carried the team in second half for most part, but he is not a long time elite hitter.  His defense is good, but outside of that his type can be found in FA, or in minor leagues.  

[DJL44]

It is interesting to see the contrasting opinions on Kepler. If he doesn't have much trade value then he's definitely not getting a qualifying offer. If he's worth a QO then he's worth some other team's top 5 prospect. I guess the key is to find the team that would want to give Kepler a QO (hint, it isn't the penny-pinching Twins) and trade him for their 1st-round-pick level talent.

That would be a great plan if the Twins had finished in 3rd place and were looking to rebuild and get younger. The problem for the Twins is they're the favorite to win the division and they don't have anyone who is a good bet to replace Kepler's production from within. They're also going to have to pay more money to replace him in free agency. The best answer is probably to keep him.

[Mike Sixel]

2 hours ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

Mike I know he had bad luck before,  but in the prior 3 years he had the lowest babip of any player.  I didn't realize how bad his luck had been, but also how long it had lasted.  Maybe he will go on a 3 year stretch of good luck 😉. We do have to acknowledge that he is likely getting some help from less shift.  He will always be shifted but even 3 to 4 more singles raises the BA 10%.    

Kepler should be a .260/.330/.820 guy.   His WAR the last 3 years is 2.1, 2.2, 2.9.  He is also only had 1 year really below 2 (He was a 1 WAR,  another year he did have 1.9 but not significant difference for this discussion).     We like to downgrade players and look at their warts yet not really see how good they are.  The war shows a player that is a 20 mil player consistently whether he is hitting or not.   If he is hitting then he is an elite player.  If he has 4 years of 2+ WAR I can guarantee he will be qualifying offer.   

I think we'll disagree on that, and I'm ok with that. 

[William Malone]

2 hours ago, DJL44 said:

It is interesting to see the contrasting opinions on Kepler. If he doesn't have much trade value then he's definitely not getting a qualifying offer. If he's worth a QO then he's worth some other team's top 5 prospect. I guess the key is to find the team that would want to give Kepler a QO (hint, it isn't the penny-pinching Twins) and trade him for their 1st-round-pick level talent.

That would be a great plan if the Twins had finished in 3rd place and were looking to rebuild and get younger. The problem for the Twins is they're the favorite to win the division and they don't have anyone who is a good bet to replace Kepler's production from within. They're also going to have to pay more money to replace him in free agency. The best answer is probably to keep him.

The qualifying offer is often about knowing the player. Matt Chapman got one, and declined it this year. He has a 108 OPS+ over last three seasons. And it was also 108 for the 2023 season as well. Toronto probably knew he personally preferred taking some 3/$40m(ish) deal, instead of some one year deal where a bad year in your 30’s tanks all value. Kepler would probably get some 3/$40m deal if he was a free agent too. But maybe he and his agent would rather take the big money for one year and bet on themselves. Everyone is different. And you need to have a feel for what everyone is looking for, before extending a qualifying offer to a Kepler or Matt Chapman level player

[DJL44]

16 minutes ago, WilliamMalone said:

The qualifying offer is often about knowing the player. Matt Chapman got one, and declined it this year.

Chapman got one because he's a better player than Max Kepler. Chapman has been a 3.5-4.5 WAR player over the past 3 seasons and Kepler has been a 2-3 WAR player. Chapman is also going to reach free agency a year younger than Max.

[William Malone]

49 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Chapman got one because he's a better player than Max Kepler. Chapman has been a 3.5-4.5 WAR player over the past 3 seasons and Kepler has been a 2-3 WAR player. Chapman is also going to reach free agency a year younger than Max.

WAR is not a great comparison tool when using players at different positions. It is a very positional stat. 

[Mike Sixel]

1 hour ago, WilliamMalone said:

WAR is not a great comparison tool when using players at different positions. It is a very positional stat. 

It's literally the opposite

[William Malone]

5 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

It's literally the opposite

Why does Andrelton Simmons have a higher WAR than Justin Morneau in fewer career games? explain it without mentioning the positions they play. If you’re claiming it’s not positional, you should be able to explain it without using the position they play.

[Mike Sixel]

10 minutes ago, WilliamMalone said:

Why does Andrelton Simmons have a higher WAR than Justin Morneau in fewer career games? explain it without mentioning the positions they play. If you’re claiming it’s not positional, you should be able to explain it without using the position they play.

his defense has more value? That would be my guess. You said you can't compare guys across positions, the entire idea of the positional adjustment and measuring defense IS to allow you to compare 1B vs SS...that's the entire idea.

[William Malone]

Only one first baseman has led Majors in WAR over last 50 years (2008 Pujols). Are they just all bad defenders? Because offensively, it consistently has some of the best hitters in the sport.

[William Malone]

4 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

his defense has more value? That would be my guess. You said you can't compare guys across positions, the entire idea of the positional adjustment and measuring defense IS to allow you to compare 1B vs SS...that's the entire idea.

Only one first baseman has led Majors in WAR over last 50 years (2008 Pujols). Are they just all bad defenders? Because offensively, it consistently has some of the best hitters in the sport.

[DJL44]

2 hours ago, WilliamMalone said:

Because offensively, it consistently has some of the best hitters in the sport.

If a position consistently has high offense then it isn't hard to find a replacement with high offense. Replacement level is all about scarcity. It's harder to find someone who can play SS than it is to find someone who can play 1B defensively. That means there are more options available for teams needing a 1B.

Anyone who can play SS can play 1B. The reverse is not true. Anyone can play DH, very few people can play C.

[tony&rodney]

8 hours ago, Trov said:

His defense is good, but outside of that his type can be found in FA, or in minor leagues.  

If a Kepler could be found in FA or in the minor leagues the Twins would have already released Max. 

The top free agent outfielder right now is Cody Bellinger. He is going to sign for big money. Kepler would be the second choice if he were a free agent this offseason and likely get 3-4 years and more than $50 million.

It can be tough to see a guy earning $8-10+M per year have average results year in and year out. Kepler looks like he should be superman. He has a beautiful swing, runs like a deer, and fields his position nearly flawlessly.  He also has one year left on his contract, which means he is almost certainly a short-timer with the Twins. If the Twins can find value in a trade, Kepler is gone. If he stays, Kepler is a free agent, which means he is gone next November. I'm a big fan of Max Kepler and hope to enjoy his work one more season. However, Max has infuriated a number of people who believe that getting rid of him will reduce their anxiety, save the Twins money, and allow the team to sign a top free agent pitcher. I think we will all see about the same time.

[SteveLV]

I would first like the Twins FO to explore extension options with Kepler and his rep's.

If they can work something out that fits the Twins long-range budget, sign him.

If not, explore the trade market.  If you like the deal, do it.  It seems unlikely based on what we know of Kepler's performance to date that he will receive a QO from this FO, or that his FA signing contract will trigger a sandwich pick.

If the trade value exceeds the FO's value of Kepler's 2024 performance at a modest $10M, they pull the trigger.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

Between Wallner, Larnach, Martin, Jenkins, E Rodriguez, and Winokur  I like the options for the outfield for the next 3-4 years and then is trying to figure out if Buxton can ever come back healthy.