Ranking the Potential Free Agent Targets in the NPB and KBO

[Peter Labuza]

In one of the weaker free agent classes in recent memory, the Twins lok toward a number of high quality talents in Korea and Japan’s major leagues.

Image courtesy of Yukihito Taguchi-USA TODAY Sports

Of the many bright spots of 2023 baseball season was the absolute delight of the World Baseball Classic, highlighting a number of players beyond Major League Baseball who have made splashes across their respective leagues. Now, a number of those players are looking to make their debut here in the States. 

In recent years, stars from both the Korean Baseball Organization (KBO) as well as Japan's Nippon Professional Baseball (NPB) have not only succeeded in the MLB but become top-shelf talent. Beyond Shohei Ohtani, stars like Ha-Seong Kim, Masataka Yoshida, and Kodai Senga have all made serious pushes to be the best players on their respective teams. 

With a weaker free agent class in general this year, many teams will certainly turn toward these leagues for some talent that might translate across the Pacific. Headlining that group will be Yoshinobu Yamamoto, while phenom Rōki Sasaki will remain in NPB for at least another year. But there are a number of other players (and more cost friendly alternatives) that might find themselves in a Twins uniform.

Jung-Hoo Lee (Kiwoom Heroes)
387 PAs, .318/.406/.455

There are always questions about how KBO players might translate into MLB hitters, but Jung-Hoo Lee has been a mashing machine throughout his young career in the KBO. Already agreed to be posted by his team, the outfielder posted a 162 WRC+ and a 175 WRC+ in his age 22 and age 23 seasons on top of a couple of gold gloves for his Buxton-esque outfield defense.

His weaker .318 batting average this year only came on an ankle surgery that ended his season in July. That might make teams more wary toward his recovery as he attempts to get used to major league pitching, but Lee also did well in the World Baseball Classic against some fierce completion in the Tokyo Dome, going 6-for-14 (including one hit off Cy Young contender Yu Darvish).

Lee likely won’t come cheap, but if the Twins want a major upgrade to assist their outfield core, he might be a strong contender for a singles and doubles hitting machine.

Shota Imanaga (Yokohama Bay Stars)
148 IP, 2.80 ERA, 174 K, 24 BB

On an inning-per-inning basis, Japanese star Shota Imanaga might actually outshine Yamamoto. Throwing in the low-to-mid 90s, Shota includes a four-pitch mix that can really work to fool hitters both on the left and right. Over his twenty-two games in NPB, Imananga struck out a career best 29.4% of NPB hitters this season while walking fewer.

On the plus side, we already saw him this year against the MLB’s best, when he started the championship game of the WBC against the United States. Though only giving the team two innings and allowing a homer to Trea Turner, the southpaw otherwise looked strong against the high-quality US team and put forth the highest Stuff+ in the entire tournament.

It’s likely Shota will command a contract equivalent to Kodai Sengai’s $75 million / five Year deal with the Mets, which given his role in leading that team’s pitching, was an absolute steal. 

Yariel Rodriguez (Chunichi Dragons)
2022 Stats: 54.2 IP, 1.15 ERA, 60 K, 18 BB

Cuban-born Yariel Rodriguez skipped his 2023 season with the Dragons in order to better position himself for free agency in MLB. He spent 2023 first by moving from reliever to starter during the World Baseball Classic and then more recently putting on shows in the Dominican Republic for scouts, all creating a lot of hype for the former NPB reliever to become a big-time pitcher.

In his 2022 relief role, his career best 1.15 ERA did not include a single home run. Rodriguez sports a fastball in the mid-to-high 90s as well as a sinker and curveball that show strikeout potential (including 10 Ks over his two WBC starts). The big question will be whether teams think his stuff is ready for a back of the rotation starting role or if he should remain an elite reliever. If the latter, he might fit nicely within the Twins organization. 

Yuki Matsui (Tokohu Rakuten)
Stats: 57 1/3 IP, 1.57 ERA, 72 K, 13 BB

In a world of Bailey Obers and Felix Bautistas, Tokohu’s Yuki Matsui stands only 5’8”, which for many might throw up a red flag. But as a reliever his last three seasons in NBP, the pitcher’s command of a fastball / splitter might be the kind of thing difficult for MLB pitchers to adjust to in a sixth or seventh inning.

As a closer in NPB, Matsui posted 236 saves (becoming the youngest ever to 200 saves in the league’s history) and the second-best chase rate for the 2023 season over his young career. The biggest concern for the left-hander actually came in the World Baseball Classic, where he struggled to find a proper grip on MLB balls compared to the smaller, pre-sticky Japanese balls. But if Matsui can overcome those difficulties, he could be a surprise weapon for the Twins’ bullpen.

Erick Fedde (NC Dinos)
Stats: 180.1 IP, 2.0 ERA, 209 K, 35 BB

After Merrill Kelly cemented his legend with his commanding performance in Game 2 of the World Series, a number of teams are looking for other possible washouts who have found newfound success in the KBO. The obvious name here is Erick Fedde, who pitched with the Washington Nationals for six years before finding himself on the NC Dinos.

That 2023 season includes 180 innings with a strikeout to walk ratio for an astonishing 5.97 (his previous best in MLB was less than half that), becoming the first American born to win the league’s pitcher triple crown (wins, ERA and strikeouts). Like many pitchers, Fedde visisted a Driveline competitor called PUSH that added a sweeper to his mix, resulting in his 149 strikeouts. Although something of a celebrity in South Korea, Fedde has expressed interest in a return, and I imagine the Twins could find a gamble here.

Naoyuki Uwasawa (Nippon Ham Fighters)
170.1 IP, 3.49 ERA, 124 K, 41 BB

Probably the least-discussed headliner among NBP agents available by posting, Naoyuki Uwasawa could at least make a viable long-term investment for teams interested in a transition project. The 29-year-old posted an ERA under 3 with the Nippon Ham Fighters in 2023, allowing only fourteen dingers over his 170 innings.

Uwasawa comps closely to Kenta Maeda, with a fastball sitting around 91mph but a pitch arsenal that includes a half dozen other pitches to fool batters around the zone. While one of the least strikeout effective pitchers, that arsenal induces numerous weak ground balls and fly balls as he has forced hitters to chase. Unlike the Twins’ need for a top line starter, Uwasawa could provide potential depth for future seasons.

Do you think any of these international free agents should come to the Twins? Sound off in the comments.

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[ashbury]

Many still feel burned by Tsuyoshi Nishioka and ByungHo Park.  These two disastrous signings came from multiple causes: failure of scouting, failure of projection, and failure of vision. 

The scouting is apparent only in retrospect, to us outsiders anyway.  Nishioka showed little ability at shortstop, and it was said that his major injury was due to improper technique during a double play attempt, which is definitely adding insult to injury - bad news when he hit like a glove-first AAAA guy at best.  Park, the bat-first one, showed flashes of power but not often enough.

The projection of stats maybe was foreseeable.  Neither of the Asian leagues they played in are at the major league level overall, so stats there must be translated in order to be meaningful.  Both players went back to their respective leagues and put up batting numbers about like they had before they left.  So it's not like they suddenly got worse when they came to the US, and conventional wisdom that those leagues were about like our AA should have been scrutinized by the analytics groups in the FO - oops, back then (2012 and 2016 respectively) those groups aren't like they are now.  Were these players both outliers in some way, or was the translation of stats too optimistic?

The vision thing amounts to reaching contract agreements in the $2-3 million dollar range, and not stopping to wonder why other teams weren't trying to outbid them.  You have to trust your own scouting department (though, see above), and maybe they've spotted someone no one else has (so, hush-hush until the ink on the contract is dry), but it can't hurt to listen to what 29 other teams' departments are trying to tell you implicitly - especially the successful ones. It's like the proverbial dog that didn't bark.

The past is past, and the Asian leagues may be different and perhaps better now.  Our FO is different too, and hopefully better.  I pray they have completely cleaned house in all these respects.  What's needed now is scouting of players' fundamentals, accurate projections from past stats that hopefully confirm the assessment of fundamentals, and then context within what rival MLB teams are also trying to accomplish.  Aim high, i.e. the ones mentioned in the article that won't come cheap.  If the information is true that the Twins are scaling back their roster budget, that's going to be nearly impossible to achieve.

If we sign one or two off-shore guys for key positions, and the salaries are bargains like Nishioka and Park were portrayed as, I'm going to be really skeptical.

[darin617]

Third times a charm right? The Twins have got burned twice signing a player from Japan so now it's there time for things to go the Twins way for once.

[Doctor Gast]

I remember reading about Jung-Hoo Lee awhile ago. Son of a former Korean MVP SS, whose nickname was "son of the wind" . So Lee's nickname is "grandson of the wind". I had high expectations for him & thought he'd be good pick up for the Twins, IMO his father gave him his talents & instilled in him the desire to be great. There'll need to be adaptation in his swing, discipline and getting used to the culture & MLB. But I think he has the talent & the determination to do so. There's been a few success stories, I believe Lee could be one. Besides another Lee on the team might be interesting.

Only question I have is the $. Hopefully he should come at a discount but still he might be too much for us? & if he wants to come here? (that's 2).

[Doctor Wu]

Very interesting article. Thanks for all the info on those players, none of whom I've ever heard of. But obviously some of these guys MIGHT be able to make the jump and help us.  That said are any of them realistic options?

[Trov]

I know fans feel burned from reaching to those leagues for players.  The problem was the fans overhyped them and the FO at the time did as well.  I do not expect this FO to just go and sign one giving an MLB spot and forgo other options. Lee sounds like an interesting option.  He is young still, and if he can play top notch defense in CF, he could fill that roll and we can deal with a drop off in hitting.  I mean would he be that much worse than Taylor? 

[Mai.K]

Minnesota was always interested in KBO players

Hyun jin Ryu At Dodgers
Highest Bid But reject Hyeon-jong Yang (Posting 2014 / 2021 Tex Sign)
And Byung Ho Park
Recently (2020) agreed to pay $800,000 with Korean Top Prospect Seung-yeop Na (But cancel...)

Jung-hoo Lee is a really good player
healthy, Good work ethic, Good Fielding

Low risk high return
I'm sure will do better than SD Ha-sung Kim (2023 GG)

I Hope Try Posting Jung-hoo Lee

[jmlease1]

I'm interested in the starting pitchers like Imanaga and Uwasawa? You can never have too many good starting pitchers and it certainly wouldn't hurt the Twins to have a southpaw starter like Imanaga. $15M per season is market rate for #3/4 starters. If Maeda is a comp for Uwasawa, that certainly doesn't offend my sensibilities.

Some interesting players in here, I'd love to know what this FO thinks of the starters for sure. Uwasawa would also let us reference the "Ham Fighters" much more, which is always a bonus.

I'm probably less interested in the position players/relievers; I just don't see a lot of room for anyone on the position side right now, and less budget allocation. While I wouldn't mind another more proven option in the bullpen, I do think the Twins have been smart not to hand out sizeable contracts to relievers, most of whom tend to be pretty fungible.

[TopGunn#22]

I like Lee because he fills a needed position (CF) and he brings an approach to the plate we need to integrate more into our lineup, that being elite contact and on base skills with a little power.  It was mentioned he might require a 4-year $14 per year ($56 million) commitment.  If I could deal Polanco $10.5 million and Theilbar $3.0 million I'd have our CF.  he's just 25 years old.  He can grow with the youthful core we already have. 

Some of the pitchers intrigue me as well.  With a reduction in payroll coming, if a couple pitchers could be signed for lower than current MLB pitchers on the market I'd have to give them heavy consideration as well. 

GREAT ARTICLE !!    

[KBJ1]

Imanaga might make sense, especially since he is a southpaw.

We have Austin Martin, a known commodity,  ready to what Lee could do in CF and more. Don't think we need to spend big money on him.

What's Lourdes Gurriel going to cost?

[DJL44]

On 11/9/2023 at 12:32 PM, jmlease1 said:

 it certainly wouldn't hurt the Twins to have a southpaw starter like Imanaga. $15M per season is market rate for #3/4 starters.

I agree with this one. He seems to have some upside and being lefthanded never hurts a pitcher. He could be a good value and at worst would probably fit into the bullpen. Japanese pitchers tend to make the jump better than position players.