Reviewing the ZiPS Game-By-Game Odds for the Twins/Blue Jays Series

[Cody Christie]

Anything can happen in October, and the Twins have one of their strongest rosters in recent memory. So, how do the Twins compare against the Blue Jays for each game in the Wild Card Series?

Image courtesy of Michael McLoone - USA Today Sports

 

Dan Szymborski has run ZiPS models at FanGraphs and other site for years, and it is widely considered one of baseball's most accurate predictors. His model uses growth and decline curves based on player type to find trends and make predictions. According to Szymborski, his playoff model gears much more toward the playoffs' micro-level than the regular season's macro-level.  

He explained this process by saying, "The ZiPS game matchup tool has a built-in lineup estimator that projects every pitcher's and batter's line against every other pitcher and batter, so there is no need to look at a team's generalized offensive strength. The playoffs also come with the benefit of being able to run the full, more robust model of ZiPS rather than the simpler model used during the regular season, a compromise necessitated by the fact that projecting a majors' worth of players takes more than a day."

These results can change as the rosters are finalized, and official starters are announced for each team. Here is how Szymborski sees the Twins and Blue Jays series playing out over the next three days. 

Game 1
Expected Starters: Kevin Gausman vs. Pablo Lopez
Twins Win Probability: 43.1%
ZiPS gives the Blue Jays the advantage in Game 1 with Gausman on the mound. The Twins faced Gausman twice this season and scored seven earned runs in 10 innings. Lopez made one start against Toronto and allowed four earned runs in 5 2/3 innings. His start against the Blue Jays was back at the end of May when he was struggling, so the current version of Lopez is a different pitcher. Minnesota will likely pack their lineup with left-handed hitters in hopes of pushing Gausman out of the game early. Lefties have posted a .731 OPS against Gausman this season, 113 points higher than he allowed to righties.    

Game 2
Expected Starters: Jose Berrios vs. Sonny Gray
Twins Win Probability: 50.3%
This game will be full of storylines no matter what happens in Game 1. Berrios returning to Target Field on the playoff stage is one storyline that is dripping with intrigue. He made one start against the Twins this year and tossed 5 2/3 shutout innings. Gray making what could be his last start before hitting free agency for the first time is another headline to follow. He started one game versus the Blue Jays and allowed one run on five hits in five innings. Game 2 is the only game the Twins are favored to win, and it's a coin flip game according to ZiPS.

Game 3
Expected Starters: Chris Bassitt vs. Joe Ryan
Twins Win Probability: 45.4%
Both teams can go in multiple directions for an elimination game. Bassitt has been strong for Toronto, but the club might want to start Yusei Kikuchi, a left-handed pitcher. This switch would force the Twins to start more right-handed batters for Game 3, and then Bassitt could be used in a piggybacking role. On Sunday's episode of Inside Twins, Rocco Baldelli was asked about Game 3 and whether Ryan would make the start. He wasn't willing to name an official starter but said that traditional starter and reliever roles go out the window in a do-or-die game. 

Overall Odds
Using the ZiPS model, the Twins probability of winning the series is 44.4%. The odds of the Twins winning in two games is 21.7%, and the odds of winning in three games is 22.7%. The Blue Jays won two more games than the Twins during the regular season while playing in a significantly more competitive division. Minnesota has played better in the second half, and it's shaping up to be a good series, even if the odds favor Toronto. 

Do you agree with the ZiPS playoff projections? Should the Twins be favored in either of the other games? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

 

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[farmerguychris]

Boo

[Blyleven2011]

As much as i hate to say it i have to be realistic that Toronto is the better team and yes they play in a east division  that is very solid , if they played in either central or west division they would have won 100 games ... 

But anything can happen  and we do have home field advantage  ...

Wave those hankies twin fans ...

[Craig Arko]

[Linus]

2 minutes ago, farmerguychris said:

Boo

I would say those odds are pretty accurate. That’s why we need Pablo and Sonny to be really good.   The lineup and bullpen have improved dramatically in the second half but I still feel like there will be one game where the Twins get 3 hits and k 14 times or we roll out 4 relievers and one of them implodes. 

[Fatbat]

Some things need to be thrown in the trash. Twins Win! is not one of them. 

[Linus]

1 minute ago, Linus said:

I would say those odds are pretty accurate. That’s why we need Pablo and Sonny to be really good.   The lineup and bullpen have improved dramatically in the second half but I still feel like there will be one game where the Twins get 3 hits and k 14 times or we roll out 4 relievers and one of them implodes. 

Sorry farmerguy. Didn’t mean to include your quote in my post 

[Puckett34]

[Nine of twelve]

These projected odds can be disregarded. There are too many things that can happen in an individual baseball game to come up with odds favoring either team, especially to within 0.1%. To claim that level of precision is so far beyond the threshold of ridiculous that it's barely worth commenting on. And even if these odds were significant the odds are close enough to 50% that there would be nothing surprising--nothing at all--for the team with lower odds to win any of the three games. 

[Rod Carews Birthday]

Perhaps if the games/series were played 1000 times, these would be the results.  However, we're not playing 1000 times.  In the small sample size of three, pretty much anything is possible.  Interesting?  Perhaps.  Useful?  Maybe.  Let's play the games!