3rd Wild Card coming down to last day will help Twins

[Trov]

Right now Seattle and Houston are fighting for last spot, with Texas holding onto division, but has 4 games against Seattle to close out season.  Seattle is a half game behind Houston, but they play today.  Houston then plays Arizona to close out the season, and Arizona is playing for NL wild card too. If you look at the starters for Seattle and Houston down the stretch, if they go to last game of season to decide the winner, both would not be able to line up their top starters for the series.  

Seattle is set to send out Castillo on Saturday and Kirby on Sunday.  With the 3 game series set to start on Tuesday, this would make Kirby only available on a short rest start on game 3, and Castillo on short rest for game 2 or regular rest game 3.  Most likely Logan Gilbert would start game 1, then depending on outcome of that game, if we win, Castillo would be used on short rest for game 2 and Kirby on short rest for game 3 if needed. Generally short rest does not work out for starters. 

For Houston, their top guy Valdez will be available for game 1 as he is set to pitch today, so will be ready for a game 1, as he is not slated to pitch the weekend.  However, Verlander is set to pitch Sunday.  Of course if they lock up wild card before then they will not run Verlander out there, but if they need a win to make playoffs they will go with him.  So he would be like Kirby only available on a short rest start for game 3 if it goes there. It is also possible Houston is looking to fight for division and then they will need to decide if sending Verlander out for a win on Sunday is worth the risk reward of getting a bye or not having him for wild card round. 

Texas, should they be looking at a sweep of Seattle and losing division falling into wild card, they have Jon Gray as their Sunday starter, but Montgomery, most likely their best starter of late, would be available for game 1.  

So here is to hoping all three teams need to fight for a win on Sunday and use up one of their top starters to at best be a short rest game 3 starter.  It really comes down to what Seattle does over next couple of days.  If they win, it will be a fun weekend of baseball for AL west to see how things shake out, but if they lose the next couple of days, then spots will be locked and we will face Houston most likely with a ready to go Valdez and Verlander 1 and 2. 

[nicksaviking]

Jon Gray left his start early the other day, he may be out or at least pushed back in the rotation.

[Riverbrian]

Great post!

I'm watching the results this week out west very closely while at the same time attempting to detach myself from any thought of cheering for a particular team based on who I'd like to match up against because we just don't know who will be the right or wrong team at the right or wrong time. 

Your post makes perfect sense... we should have the advantage of setting our rotation while the Jays, Rangers, Mariners and Astros have to fight to the end leaving THEM to roll with however it it rolls. 

However, while we worry about Luis Castillo and George Kirby or worry about Valdez and Verlander. History has shown that it just might be Logan Gilbert, JP France, Bryan Woo or Hunter Brown that hang zeroes while Castillo hangs a 4 in the 1st inning. 

While we hope for the return of Lewis and Correa. It just might be Christian Vazquez who hits a three run homer in 9th inning to send us to the next round. 

It's why I love baseball and it's why I'll never take for granted my team participating in the small sample size that is the playoffs. 

Great Post though and Go Twins!!!  

 

[IndianaTwin]

31 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

Jon Gray left his start early the other day, he may be out or at least pushed back in the rotation.

From NBCSports.com:

Gray was pulled from Monday night’s start against the Angels after six innings — but after throwing only 81 pitches — due to tightness in his right wrist. It doesn’t sound as though he’s heading for a stint on the injured list, but the Rangers were concerned enough to have imaging done, which is obviously worrisome. Expect manager Bruce Bochy to provide an update as soon one becomes available.

[Brock Beauchamp]

4 minutes ago, IndianaTwin said:

From NBCSports.com:

Gray was pulled from Monday night’s start against the Angels after six innings — but after throwing only 81 pitches — due to tightness in his right wrist. It doesn’t sound as though he’s heading for a stint on the injured list, but the Rangers were concerned enough to have imaging done, which is obviously worrisome. Expect manager Bruce Bochy to provide an update as soon one becomes available.

Do the Rangers have any pitchers left at this point?

[Jocko87]

20 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Do the Rangers have any pitchers left at this point?

Even today I’m finding it hard to believe they will win that division. It just highlights how much of a crapshoot the playoffs can be.  Get hot and go for it.

I do agree that the more stress these teams face down the stretch helps the Twins but there is also the chance someone gets hot to get in and is the worst opponent.  Hopefully the 6th seed ends up the least hot, most stressed. 

[nicksaviking]

34 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Do the Rangers have any pitchers left at this point?

Playing the Angels without Trout and Ohtani, you'd think they wouldn't need a pitcher, a backup catcher should suffice.

Yet last night the Angels said otherwise.

[TopGunn#22]

Indeed, this is why we all love baseball!  The chess game is always fascinating.  Not only do the Twins get all 3 games at home, but the very real likelihood that the eventual opponent will need to burn through their #1 & #2 SP just to make the playoffs is a huge advantage.

The Twins need Lewis and Correa to be healthy so resting them as much as possible while still getting them some AB's before the regular season ends is also a key.  I believe the key to our post season is Royce Lewis.  That kid just seems to have a positive vibe.  He comes through in clutch situations.  I don't mean to put this kind of pressure on him but I think he's our post season "X" factor.  Could he be our "Puckett-esque" kind of catalyst?  I think so.  

[Trov]

3 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

Great post!

I'm watching the results this week out west very closely while at the same time attempting to detach myself from any thought of cheering for a particular team based on who I'd like to match up against because we just don't know who will be the right or wrong team at the right or wrong time. 

Your post makes perfect sense... we should have the advantage of setting our rotation while the Jays, Rangers, Mariners and Astros have to fight to the end leaving THEM to roll with however it it rolls. 

However, while we worry about Luis Castillo and George Kirby or worry about Valdez and Verlander. History has shown that it just might be Logan Gilbert, JP France, Bryan Woo or Hunter Brown that hang zeroes while Castillo hangs a 4 in the 1st inning. 

While we hope for the return of Lewis and Correa. It just might be Christian Vazquez who hits a three run homer in 9th inning to send us to the next round. 

It's why I love baseball and it's why I'll never take for granted my team participating in the small sample size that is the playoffs. 

Great Post though and Go Twins!!!  

 

I agree anyone can have a good game and anyone can have a bad game.  If it works out we are facing the 3rd and 4th best pitchers in the rotation does not mean we will anything.  It just means we are facing someone that has had less success in the season, but any pitcher can get blown up quickly. 

[2wins87]

3 hours ago, Trov said:

For Houston, their top guy Valdez will be available for game 1 as he is set to pitch today, so will be ready for a game 1, as he is not slated to pitch the weekend.  However, Verlander is set to pitch Sunday.  Of course if they lock up wild card before then they will not run Verlander out there, but if they need a win to make playoffs they will go with him.  So he would be like Kirby only available on a short rest start for game 3 if it goes there. It is also possible Houston is looking to fight for division and then they will need to decide if sending Verlander out for a win on Sunday is worth the risk reward of getting a bye or not having him for wild card round. 

I agree with everything you said about all the teams.  Houston is still currently the most likely opponent so I took a more detailed look at how they might set their rotation over the next few days.

I think they want to have Valdez and Verlander in the WC rotation for sure, and I guess Christian Javier has the inside track for the third spot.  None of Javier, France or Brown have been particularly strong over the last few months, so I think they go with the veteran, but I could be wrong, and maybe they go with the fireballer Brown despite mediocre results.

Anyway, Valdez goes tonight, then they have an off day which does allow them some flexibility. They probably stick with their current rotation and France pitches Friday, on 5 days of rest.  The only other option would be to skip France and go to Brown on 4 days of rest.  I don't see a compelling reason to do that.

Saturday they could start shaking it up, and it's possible they could already be facing a must-win.  Verlander could go on 4-days rest here, which would set him up for game 3 of the wildcard round after another 4 days of rest.  They could also stick with Brown, in which case Verlander would still be slated to go on Sunday, but I think they might be willing to start him again in game 3 on 3-days of rest.

The best scenario for them would be to clinch before Sunday with their current rotation in tact, which would allow them to skip Verlander's last start.  I would think that we would then get Verlander and Valdez in games 1 & 2, both on a little extra rest.

Under any scenario I think we would get Valdez in either game 1 or 2, and probably the only way we wouldn't see Verlander at all is if the West goes down to the last game of the season and the WC series doesn't go to 3 games, but he could end up pitching on short rest, which would hopefully help the Twins at least a little bit.

Without a rest day and facing each other for the last 4, if either Texas or Seattle ends up as the wild-card they will probably have had to stick with their current rotation.

Anyway, I'm really hoping for a Seattle win tonight just because it's Houston and we can probably all agree that we'd rather just see them miss the playoffs altogether.  And if the Angels somehow manage to beat Texas again tonight, that should set up a pretty wild weekend.

We should also probably be rooting for Chicago and Miami to go on winning streaks to keep the pressure on Arizona against Houston as well.  The Twins' games might be boring but it should be a fun weekend.

[IaBeanCounter]

5 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

However, while we worry about Luis Castillo and George Kirby or worry about Valdez and Verlander. History has shown that it just might be Logan Gilbert, JP France, Bryan Woo or Hunter Brown that hang zeroes while Castillo hangs a 4 in the 1st inning. 

My impression is that the Twins do well against top line pitchers but hit below average against new and soft tossing pitchers.  I don't know a way to verify this, but I recall early in the year that the Twins beat former Cy Young pitchers on a regular basis.

[Nine of twelve]

I'm a bit taken aback by the almost complete disregard for Toronto in this discussion. They have to win 3 games to be guaranteed a wild card berth. Granted, they are in the lead for the two remaining berths at the moment but it's still very conceivable for them to wind up on the outside looking in.

[Riverbrian]

1 hour ago, IaBeanCounter said:

My impression is that the Twins do well against top line pitchers but hit below average against new and soft tossing pitchers.  I don't know a way to verify this, but I recall early in the year that the Twins beat former Cy Young pitchers on a regular basis.

It goes that way sometimes. We could have a Gray vs Verlander matchup and the Twins win 10 to 9. 

 

[Road trip]

9 minutes ago, Nine of twelve said:

I'm a bit taken aback by the almost complete disregard for Toronto in this discussion. They have to win 3 games to be guaranteed a wild card berth. Granted, they are in the lead for the two remaining berths at the moment but it's still very conceivable for them to wind up on the outside looking in.

FanGraphs has the Jays at 95% in the playoffs, using more advanced math than I have. 

It's possible for the Jays to miss out, but they'll have to flop pretty badly.  Their last 5 are at home against the Yankees (who are a depressed mess...love it) and the Rays (who will likely be resting starters for the playoffs), so it seems likely the Jays should win at least 2 out of 5..

Then, the Astros and Mariners almost inevitably will lose a game or two given their difficult remaining schedules against teams fighting for playoff spots (one will certainly lose when they play each other tonight). 

 

[Nine of twelve]

1 hour ago, Road trip said:

FanGraphs has the Jays at 95% in the playoffs, using more advanced math than I have. 

It's possible for the Jays to miss out, but they'll have to flop pretty badly.  Their last 5 are at home against the Yankees (who are a depressed mess...love it) and the Rays (who will likely be resting starters for the playoffs), so it seems likely the Jays should win at least 2 out of 5..

Then, the Astros and Mariners almost inevitably will lose a game or two given their difficult remaining schedules against teams fighting for playoff spots (one will certainly lose when they play each other tonight). 

 

If TB can grasp the #1 seed they'll try to get there. We'll see how the next two days play out, but Toronto should not count on a cakewalk this weekend.

[Nine of twelve]

15 hours ago, Road trip said:

It's possible for the Jays to miss out, but they'll have to flop pretty badly.  Their last 5 are at home against the Yankees (who are a depressed mess...love it) and the Rays (who will likely be resting starters for the playoffs), so it seems likely the Jays should win at least 2 out of 5..

It is viewed very unfavorably throughout baseball not to try to win games that have playoff implications. A manager has to put his own team's interests first but if the Rays don't give it their best shot over the weekend they'll hear about it from the three contenders in the AL West.

[Trov]

22 minutes ago, Nine of twelve said:

It is viewed very unfavorably throughout baseball not to try to win games that have playoff implications. A manager has to put his own team's interests first but if the Rays don't give it their best shot over the weekend they'll hear about it from the three contenders in the AL West.

If the Rays can catch Baltimore, will require Baltimore to get swept at home by Boston, then the Rays will try to win division, get a bye and home field, where they play much better.  However, if they cannot catch Boston, they will set up their rotation, make sure their top guys are good to go and rest any nagging hurt muscles are good for the wild card round.  Every team would do that.  They will not concede the games to Jays, but the fact is, they will be playing the Jays most likely in that first round.  So they will play 3 games in Toronto, then go to TB for 3 game more important series.  They will not risk burning their top arms.  

It is possible if TB sweeps Toronto the west sends 2 wild card teams, and would require Seattle to win their series against Texas, and Houston to win 1 game against Arizona.  If Toronto wins 1 game Houston would need to win 2 games and Seattle will have to sweep, depending on tie breakers, did not look those up. If Toronto wins 2 they will make wild card and most likely the number 2 wild card.  If Texas beats Seattle then the wild cards will be Houston and Toronto just in what order.  But once the wild cards are locked both teams will look to set up their rotation for playoffs and they will not care too much about who they are facing.  

[Road trip]

15 minutes ago, Nine of twelve said:

It is viewed very unfavorably throughout baseball not to try to win games that have playoff implications. A manager has to put his own team's interests first but if the Rays don't give it their best shot over the weekend they'll hear about it from the three contenders in the AL West.

Well, sure, as professionals the Rays will try.  Hitters will try to hit, and pitchers will throw as well as they can, but unless Baltimore loses their next four in a row the AL East race is over (magic # is 1).  Management will be different though.  I seriously doubt the Rays start Eflin on Sunday, which would be his normal rest.  They will save him for game 1 or 2 of the wildcard round.  Likewise, any regular who is nursing a minor injury will get a day or two off this weekend.  Bullpen workloads will also be managed carefully on Saturday and Sunday, because a manager must put his own team's interest first.  We would expect Rocco to do the same.

Having said all that, could the Jays blow it anyway?  Sure, it could happen.  Just not real likely.