Would Trades for Pen Pitchers have Helped?

[Trov]

Many fans were upset the Twins did not buy rental pen pitchers during the trade deadline.  The assumption was making a trade would have upgraded our struggling pen.  Giving us more depth and not having to lean as heavy on the few top end guys we do have, who have had struggles of late. I am not going to address what it may have taken to get any of the guys, and will not speculate who we could have got had we made big offers to teams that stood pat, in hopes they would turn things around. I looked back at the deadline trades or before deadline.  I identified 9 relief pitchers that were moved around the deadline, could have missed a couple just did quick search.

Chapman was the first guy traded.  He was great in July, and the start of August for Texas, but of late he has given up runs in a lot of outings, 5 of his last 6.  It started off well, but lately he has been a liability for a struggling pen.

Brad Hand has given up runs in 3 of the 10 games he has pitched since he was traded. He pitches 1 inning at time, and has been okay, but not lights out by any stretch. Our main lefty has given up runs in 4 of 14 games since deadline, really it would seem to be a wash.  Hand gave up multiple runs in 2 of his, Thielbar would give up 1 each. 

Sam Moll, who has been the best relief guy traded, has given up 1 run in 14 outings.  He would have been a great upgrade so far to any pen.

Paul Sewald, who was traded from a team that went on a surge to be in first place since he was traded, actually has been good overall, blowing 2 saves and giving up runs 3 outings but having 13 outings and picked up saves in 9.  He could have helped add depth, but he has not bee completely lights out.  Still interesting the team that sent him away took off.

Chris Stratton has given up runs in 4 of his 13, but as at least allowed in runner that was on when he came in at least 1 time. 

Jordan Hicks has allowed runs in 4 of his 15 games, pitching in higher leverage situations it would seem, picking up holds, saves, and wins generally coming in 7th or later.

Joe Kelly has been injured and only pitched 3.1 innings since deadline.

David Robertson has given up runs in 5 of 12 games, with each being at least 2 plus runs.  this has resulted in 3 blown saves and 4 losses, as all games have been 9th or later.

Reynaldo Lopez, gave up runs in 4 out of 13 games, all single runs with Angles, and 1 game of no runs with Cleveland. 

Some pitcher that Twins have used in stead of any of these guys:

Balazovic had 5 games giving up runs in 2 of multiple runs.  He has since been sent down for others.

Pagan, who was doing well going into deadline, has given up runs in 6 of 14 games, mostly single runs, and on a bad stretch with 5 in last 7 games giving up runs.

Floro has given up runs in 2 of 11 games since deadline, and 13 since we got him.  They were two terrible games giving up multiple runs, but he has not been used in too much high leverage outings. 

Duran, who I would assume would have stayed the top arm, has given up runs in 6 of 14 games, picking up one loss and one blown save resulting in team loss, the wild pitch with 2 outs behind the batter pitch.

Jax has given up runs in 4 out of 14 games, with 2 being 4 runs allowed.  

Looking back at guys moved, we cannot assume they would have done same with Twins, but even if we do assume that, I would say clearly Sam Moll would have been an upgrade, even more so being he is a lefty.  Sewald maybe would have been an upgrade over Jax or Pagan.  Both would have been welcome, but other than Moll no one is a clear upgrade.  Most would have been on par or worse than what we have thrown out there it would seem.  Yes, in some games had we just given up 1 run from pen we may have won, but even in Durans games who he has given up most runs per outing, the team has generally still won those games or were behind when he came in. 

My point is, even if we made trades, it is possible our pen would be in same place as the guys we have.  Keep in mind, last year we traded for one of better guys in first half, he was terrible for us overall, and now the team we traded for him from picked him up on waivers. Just because our bullpen has struggled some of late, does not mean we could have fixed it with trades.  

 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

20 minutes ago, Trov said:

Many fans were upset the Twins did not buy rental pen pitchers during the trade deadline.  The assumption was making a trade would have upgraded our struggling pen.  Giving us more depth and not having to lean as heavy on the few top end guys we do have, who have had struggles of late. I am not going to address what it may have taken to get any of the guys, and will not speculate who we could have got had we made big offers to teams that stood pat, in hopes they would turn things around. I looked back at the deadline trades or before deadline.  I identified 9 relief pitchers that were moved around the deadline, could have missed a couple just did quick search.

Chapman was the first guy traded.  He was great in July, and the start of August for Texas, but of late he has given up runs in a lot of outings, 5 of his last 6.  It started off well, but lately he has been a liability for a struggling pen.

Brad Hand has given up runs in 3 of the 10 games he has pitched since he was traded. He pitches 1 inning at time, and has been okay, but not lights out by any stretch. Our main lefty has given up runs in 4 of 14 games since deadline, really it would seem to be a wash.  Hand gave up multiple runs in 2 of his, Thielbar would give up 1 each. 

Sam Moll, who has been the best relief guy traded, has given up 1 run in 14 outings.  He would have been a great upgrade so far to any pen.

Paul Sewald, who was traded from a team that went on a surge to be in first place since he was traded, actually has been good overall, blowing 2 saves and giving up runs 3 outings but having 13 outings and picked up saves in 9.  He could have helped add depth, but he has not bee completely lights out.  Still interesting the team that sent him away took off.

Chris Stratton has given up runs in 4 of his 13, but as at least allowed in runner that was on when he came in at least 1 time. 

Jordan Hicks has allowed runs in 4 of his 15 games, pitching in higher leverage situations it would seem, picking up holds, saves, and wins generally coming in 7th or later.

Joe Kelly has been injured and only pitched 3.1 innings since deadline.

David Robertson has given up runs in 5 of 12 games, with each being at least 2 plus runs.  this has resulted in 3 blown saves and 4 losses, as all games have been 9th or later.

Reynaldo Lopez, gave up runs in 4 out of 13 games, all single runs with Angles, and 1 game of no runs with Cleveland. 

Some pitcher that Twins have used in stead of any of these guys:

Balazovic had 5 games giving up runs in 2 of multiple runs.  He has since been sent down for others.

Pagan, who was doing well going into deadline, has given up runs in 6 of 14 games, mostly single runs, and on a bad stretch with 5 in last 7 games giving up runs.

Floro has given up runs in 2 of 11 games since deadline, and 13 since we got him.  They were two terrible games giving up multiple runs, but he has not been used in too much high leverage outings. 

Duran, who I would assume would have stayed the top arm, has given up runs in 6 of 14 games, picking up one loss and one blown save resulting in team loss, the wild pitch with 2 outs behind the batter pitch.

Jax has given up runs in 4 out of 14 games, with 2 being 4 runs allowed.  

Looking back at guys moved, we cannot assume they would have done same with Twins, but even if we do assume that, I would say clearly Sam Moll would have been an upgrade, even more so being he is a lefty.  Sewald maybe would have been an upgrade over Jax or Pagan.  Both would have been welcome, but other than Moll no one is a clear upgrade.  Most would have been on par or worse than what we have thrown out there it would seem.  Yes, in some games had we just given up 1 run from pen we may have won, but even in Durans games who he has given up most runs per outing, the team has generally still won those games or were behind when he came in. 

My point is, even if we made trades, it is possible our pen would be in same place as the guys we have.  Keep in mind, last year we traded for one of better guys in first half, he was terrible for us overall, and now the team we traded for him from picked him up on waivers. Just because our bullpen has struggled some of late, does not mean we could have fixed it with trades.  

 

Good discussion point. I think we need to add that Sands and Winder have been bad and underutilized, putting more innings on Jax, Pagan, Thielbar, and Duran

Any of Lopez, Hicks, Stratton, Moll would have been an improvement over either Winder or Sands and would have spread the burden out on Jax, Pagan, Thielbar and Duran. At least Jax and Duran are looking a little tired right now.

Agreed, no better than the current top end relievers in the Twins Bullpen, but comparable to Jax and Pagan and adding depth.

[jaimedude]

Just wish the Twins could have won the claims on Matt Moore or Reynaldo Lopez. Think those two would have helped the Twins 

[Trov]

5 minutes ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

Good discussion point. I think we need to add that Sands and Winder have been bad and underutilized, putting more innings on Jax, Pagan, Thielbar, and Duran

Any of Lopez, Hicks, Stratton, Moll would have been an improvement over either Winder or Sands and would have spread the burden out on Jax, Pagan, Thielbar and Duran. At least Jax and Duran are looking a little tired right now.

Sands has given up runs in 2 games out of 5 games, one of which we won 12-2, the other is the game we got walked off by Texas recently. 

Winder has given up runs in 4 of 8, with 2 being multi run games, one we lost 6-0 and other 13-2, so his 3 runs he gave up did not make difference in either. The other two games he gave up 1 run that did make the difference when we were down 3, he gave up 1 run in 9th to make it 4 and we scored 3 in bottom.  The last was recent loss to Texas giving up the walk off.  He also had 3 outings of 3 innings each of 0 runs.  

I would disagree that both have been terrible causing us to use the others too much.  Winder has been used in long relief for most part and so has Sands.  Yes, if they were replaced by someone that has higher leverage experience would have tried to use them over Jax or Pagan, but that does not mean the others would have been any more successful, that is speculating.  The Texas game where Sands and Winder helped give us the loss may have been saved with other pitchers, but we do not know, it could have been one of the times the replacements did just as bad.  It is also possible the replacements may have blown games others did not.  

[Richie the Rally Goat]

31 minutes ago, Trov said:

Sands has given up runs in 2 games out of 5 games, one of which we won 12-2, the other is the game we got walked off by Texas recently. 

Winder has given up runs in 4 of 8, with 2 being multi run games, one we lost 6-0 and other 13-2, so his 3 runs he gave up did not make difference in either. The other two games he gave up 1 run that did make the difference when we were down 3, he gave up 1 run in 9th to make it 4 and we scored 3 in bottom.  The last was recent loss to Texas giving up the walk off.  He also had 3 outings of 3 innings each of 0 runs.  

I would disagree that both have been terrible causing us to use the others too much.  Winder has been used in long relief for most part and so has Sands.  Yes, if they were replaced by someone that has higher leverage experience would have tried to use them over Jax or Pagan, but that does not mean the others would have been any more successful, that is speculating.  The Texas game where Sands and Winder helped give us the loss may have been saved with other pitchers, but we do not know, it could have been one of the times the replacements did just as bad.  It is also possible the replacements may have blown games others did not.  

Agreed, the straw-man here is really difficult because it’s not a one:one comp. The question isn’t “what if player A’s results were replaced by player B’s results?”

The straw-man is “what if instead of carrying both Winder and Sands on the roster, they shuttled between the two and carried another leverage arm?” “What if those 13 games 22 innings were thrown by one roster spot?”

Really hard to determine, but declining to use either pitcher in even modestly leveraged situations is a decision too.

[Muppet]

I'm not too familiar with non-twins players, so I don't have a feel for who they might have received in a trade. But I would wager that whatever 2 pitchers they could have gotten for whatever trade pieces they had available would not have been impactful enough to make a huge difference. If they consider that Madea, Ober, Keuchel, Varland, and Winder are in the bullpen during the playoffs, then a trade would have just sacrificed members of the somewhat thin group of prospects without actually improving the pen that much. The bullpen isn't always great, and a couple more mediocre arms wouldn't change much. 

[jorgenswest]

Sam Moll has also allowed 4 inherited runners to score and has a very slightly negative WPA with the Reds.

The failure was really last winter. The options at the deadline were expensive in terms of players and flawed.

[GusGus11]

58 minutes ago, Trov said:

Sands has given up runs in 2 games out of 5 games, one of which we won 12-2, the other is the game we got walked off by Texas recently. 

Winder has given up runs in 4 of 8, with 2 being multi run games, one we lost 6-0 and other 13-2, so his 3 runs he gave up did not make difference in either. The other two games he gave up 1 run that did make the difference when we were down 3, he gave up 1 run in 9th to make it 4 and we scored 3 in bottom.  The last was recent loss to Texas giving up the walk off.  He also had 3 outings of 3 innings each of 0 runs.  

I would disagree that both have been terrible causing us to use the others too much.  Winder has been used in long relief for most part and so has Sands.  Yes, if they were replaced by someone that has higher leverage experience would have tried to use them over Jax or Pagan, but that does not mean the others would have been any more successful, that is speculating.  The Texas game where Sands and Winder helped give us the loss may have been saved with other pitchers, but we do not know, it could have been one of the times the replacements did just as bad.  It is also possible the replacements may have blown games others did not.  

The issue with this comp of guys like Sands and Winder is the situations they are used in.

Your initial OP does an excellent job of showing that most of the guys we got wouldnt necessarily be high leverage upgrades, but thats also not what we were looking for.

We were never trying to replace Jax/Duran/Pagan/Theilbar. We wanted duplicates of those guys to have more options.

The current recipe to win is starter goes 6. Pagan/Thielbar take the 7th. Jax takes the 8th. Duran the 9th. Its a perfect forumla....if it works. But if that type of game happens 3-4 in a row. They cant all pitch. Now enter Floro or the revolving door of bala/winder/Moran/Headrick/Sands. Guys who just keep trading(and blowing in most cases) opportunity to stay up here. Or maybe Jax has an off game and now it goes extras. Weve burned them all and pitching the 10th is the revolving door. It was all about depth.

Thielbar was out a long time and our only rostered lefty like all summer was Moran or Headrick. Thats brutal. Terrible.

You showed the stats of Floro and overall hes been actually pretty solid with us. But his blow ups were in closer games. Because by default he had to come in to get outs in Milwaukee. Think if we had other higher leverage options?

Or Winder/Sands. Winder has actually been quite solid. Hes had multiple games where his long relief helped big time. Vs Seattle he gave us a chance we still lost 8-7 but he hlped us try to come back. Vs Texas we did comeback and he was a hero. Vs Cleveland we cameback then he got a 3 inning save. Issue is he also lost a game like Texas the other day when he was forced in the do or die role. That shouldnt be his role.

Sands has been so untrustworthy we literally only pitched him in games we deemed mostly over, whether it was us or them. The willi castro role last night. His first chance to pitch when it really mattered was Sunday when we basically made up our minds pregame no good pitchers were being used. Sands gave up the lead TWICE.

You cant really compare Sands mop up duty to Jordan Hicks high leverage.

So thats really the idea of why most thought we should add at the deadline. More depth so that when the big 4 cant go, we have 1 or 2 other great options.

There is absolutely zero need for this team to ever roster Winder and Sands at the same time. Or Headrick with Funderburk and THielbar. We should have had more depth.

As it is, our bullpen is still better than Texas at least. And my hope is in playoffs when you only really play a couple in a row the big arms will hold up and be ready.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

Any time you trade for bullpen pitchers (or acquire them on August 31) you are inherently dealing with a super small sample size.  In a month, an often used relief pitcher might pitch 15 innings max.  If he has two blowups, his stats look terrible and then the trade looks like a bad one on paper.  If he has a good start with his new club, then everybody thinks he's amazing.  Unfortunately that's the nature of relief pitching and it makes projecting good trade targets very difficult. 

The Twins need relief pitchers now more than in the postseason, provided that they don't completely wear out their high leverage guys.  Once October hits, they can insert a number of other guys into the bullpen that might make the need much less.  That even makes it more important that they can take care of business in the next week or so in order to have a cushion and rest some guys. 

Long way around to say. . . yes, it would have been nice to get a fifth or sixth guy in the bullpen, but it won't likely make or break this team going forward.  Just having the offense finally producing will make it so the bullpen no longer needs to dance on a knife blade to keep a game in the win column. 

[nicksaviking]

I don't think what these pitches have done since the trades are likely indicative of what they'd have done with the Twins.

At the same time, I don't think what these pitchers did with their original teams this season is indicative of what they'd have done with the Twins, and trading for them would have been a coin flip anyway.

Bottom line is, that while signing relievers with strong and lengthy track records of success should have an emphasis, the Twins biggest failure is in not developing their own bullpen well enough. Doing so is a walk in the park for many clubs, heck, it used to be commonplace with this club. This front office doesn't appear to have the knack for it.

[Azviking101]

I don’t think extra wins would be easily calculated or very important because as we’ve seen, everything would have needed to go terrible wrong for them to drop out of the division lead, and they were basically guaranteed the 3 seed anyway.

with that being said, having only 4 reliable relievers has put a huge strain on the pen and all 4 are showing signs of overwork. Twins aren’t leading the league in bullpen innings, but they’re near the top in close games in the late innings and when they’ve played the second half with only 3 or 4 good, healthy relievers with the rest being dreadful, that’s a recipe for potential disaster. The twins offense decided to become a top 5 offense in the second half though, so it doesn’t matter.

The hope now is that they can lock this up early, rest Thielbar, Duran and Jax and either get quality innings out of Varland or get Stewart back healthy. I think they’ll likely get one of those. 

[jaimedude]

After watching Jax on Sunday and Floro Monday night they need two other guys. Both are erratic and walk and hit guy's too frequently. It would have been nice to have another high leverage arm besides Thielbar and Duran.  We still don't have an 8th inning set up guy. Varland or Ober or Paddack they need to try and get someone else ready with time left. 

[jaimedude]

You can pitch Jax in 6th or 7th, he doesn't handle the 9th inning well. Get's too wired.