What If the Twins' Trade Deadline Had Been a Week Later?

[Lou Hennessy]

Many were surprised at the lack of action by the Twins at last week’s trade deadline. Would they have done anything different had that deadline been pushed back a week? From new sellers emerging on the market, as well as new holes opening up on the Twins’ roster, a lot could have changed in a week. 

Image courtesy of Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports

It’s been about 10 days since the Twins left MLB’s trade kitchen without getting anything to eat. Yes, they made a deal earlier in the week when they swapped Jorge Lopez for Dylan Floro, but there was much more to be desired as the club approached the August 1st trade deadline. Whether it was due to a tricky market with few sellers, or a debatable lack of a major hole on their roster, the Twins decided to stand pat as they make their push toward the postseason. 

But things change quickly over the course of a week - not just for the Twins, but league wide. Teams that were clinging to dwindling hopes of landing a spot in the playoff bracket are now regretting their passivity. And while the Twins liked their depth enough to hold out through the deadline, they now find themselves with a handful of injuries that are once again chipping away at the roster. 

So it begs the question - how would the Twins’ trade deadline have played out if they had an extra week to make their determinations?

Take a look at a few of the teams that decided not to sell any significant pieces last Tuesday. The Los Angeles Angels know that it’s almost certain that their impending superstar free agent, Shohei Ohtani, will not return to Anaheim next season. Even so, they decided that the optics of trading away one of the most-talented players of all time would be too detrimental to their organization. 

Not only did they hang onto the probable American League MVP, but they held off on trading other assets in the hopes of making their own playoff push. Players that could’ve fetched the Angels a solid return such as Hunter Renfroe and Matt Moore would’ve been of great interest to a team like the Twins, even before their most recent injury developments. 

The cherry on top of the Angels’ mistake sundae was the fact they even turned themselves into buyers at the deadline, acquiring supplemental pieces like Lucas Giolito, Reynaldo Lopez, C.J. Cron and Randal Grichuk. Each of those players would’ve been considered solid buys for the Twins had they decided to make a move. Instead, they find themselves on a sinking ship that has lost seven of their last 10 games. 

The Boston Red Sox are another team that could have been a great trade match with the Twins if they had decided to lean into a seller’s mindset. Instead, they hung onto valuable assets such as outfielder Adam Duvall and star slugger Justin Turner. Each of those players are free agents at year’s end (Turner has a $10.5 million player option), and each would have represented a clear boost to the club’s corps of right-handed hitters. Instead, Boston held off on trading them away, and much like the Angels, all they have to show for it is seven losses in their last 10 games.

The Twins could certainly use any of the aforementioned players thanks to some injury developments that have sprung up in the past few weeks. Alex Kirilloff hit the injured list with a shoulder issue. Byron Buxton is on the shelf with a hamstring injury. Brock Stewart had yet another setback in his recovery from a sore elbow. To make matters worse, the club’s best right-handed hitter, Donovan Solano, left Tuesday night’s game against the Detroit Tigers with a knee injury. While it looks like he will likely avoid a stay on the injured list, the Twins will surely be cautious with his usage in the near-term. 

Of course, just because the Twins would’ve had more time to swing a deal had the deadline been this week instead of last, doesn’t mean they would have certainly pushed something through. Even knowing how some sellers such as the Angels and Red Sox have fared in the last week, it’s very possible that the club could have wound up with the same outcome regardless. 

As Aaron Gleeman of The Athletic stated on the latest mailbag episode of the Gleeman and the Geek podcast (Patreon subscription required, and highly recommended), any criticism toward the club’s inaction at the deadline should be directed at the Twins’ passivity, not the lack of options to upgrade the roster. There were moves to be made even without the inclusion of the Angels or Red Sox. 

“Would it make it more likely that John and I would go get lunch after the show today if there were five great restaurants right across the street?” Gleeman said as he started another one of his world-famous terrible analogies. “Yes, but that shouldn’t really affect whether you eat when you’re hungry. You can make yourself a sandwich.”

But the Twins skipped their lunch, and now we’re starting to hear their growling belly that was desperate for something to tide themselves over until dinner. 

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[Patzky]

Well Cole Sands will make it all better. "Almost like getting a new arm via trade.."

 

Seriously the Royce Lewis and Hopefully better Joe Ryan infusion ought to be enough to ensure a division championship. But between our own pitcher fatigue and the adjustments opposing pitchers are making against our young bats, it's gonna be a tight finish. I could see the Twins winning the Central by the same three or four game spread they have right now.

[RpR]

It would have been the same thing, only one week later.

[USAFChief]

They chose not to address needs that were apparent long before the deadline. I doubt another week would have mattered. 

[NotAboutWinning]

The outcome would have been the same. The FO would have had one less lame excuse to insult the fans intelligence.

[John Belinski]

Front office surprised me and other Twin's fans when they did not make a trade to help the Twins. The Twins have several players in the minors that they could have traded to get help. If they are not going to call up these players then trade them to get help. How many left handed outfielders do the Twins need? It just does not seem to make sense that the FO did not do anything to help the Twins become a better team.  The fans are disappointed and maybe the players are also disappointed that the FO did nothing. I guess the fans have to accept that the Twins will keep Rocco and the FO for many years to come which will mean the Twins will be OK, but never a really good team.

[Loops]

As the game (and probably series) with Philadelphia shows, the Twins are not just one or two players away from being a World Series team. We could very easily still win the lowly Central Division, but beyond that requires a lot of luck and the stars to be aligned perfectly. Very unlikely. Trading away future prospects for short term wins in a lost season would not have been a smart thing to do. You could argue instead of trying to build up their roster they should have traded some veterans to get a roster and prospects that could be competitive in the future. ie Do what the Guardians did. Personally I am happy they did not trade to try and guarantee a Division title this year. They need a real long term plan of what they are doing and where they are trying to go. Not a quick fix for today.

[darin617]

I don't think it would have mattered either way.  Which makes no sense why the Twins go out and spent a ton on Correa and then decide to play it smart and not make any moves.

[DocBauer]

On the one hand, according to Falvey, they had conversations and had at least a few targets in mind, though it's mostly pure speculation as to who those targets might have been, but the teams they were in talks with either stayed status quo, or turned around and bought. While the FO...or any FO for that matter...is seldom, if ever, going to reveal the nature of those talks, I do believe what Falvey said was probably true. I don't believe they were lying.

On the other hand, they had to know already Stewart coming back soon, if at all, was already a huge question mark and they should have been able to pivot and still find one solid BP arm to be brought in. Huge error to be caught that far off guard. But then again, we just don't know. Maybe they had a deal in place that fell through last minute. Still not an excuse for a very obvious need that shouldn't have been expensive.

As to the actual question posed, we'll never know for sure, but I think the extra week WOULD have made a difference. The Angels and Red Sox aren't the only teams to have suddenly disappeared from any shot at playoff contention post deadline, but can't recall the other teams that suddenly went in to a tailspin. (BTW, is anyone of any competence running the Angels)? Short sighted or not, caught off guard or not, I believe Falvey that they were trying to work some deals. I do think the extra week WOULD have changed a few minds and the Twins would probably have added at least a couple players between a RP...or two...and a RH bat. Speculating who would be a fools errand at this point, but the extra week very well might have brought a different deadline for the Twins.

The one very interesting rumor I did read...and I forget who reported it now...was that the Twins were working a 3 team deal to move Sonny Gray and receive LHSP Eduardo Rodriguez from the Tigers. Presumably, the Tigers would have received prospects/young players from the unnamed 3rd team. Now I really like Gray a ton, and wasn't of the opinion to move him. I love the idea of him accepting the QO, or getting a high pick for him if he refused, wich is probable, but I think I would have really liked to see that deal go through.

I don't believe the FO was looking to be ANYWHERE as aggressive as they were last year, and didn't have to be. And I don't think they were misleading in their press conference. And I do think the extra week might have changed some things. But, unfortunately, this isn't the first time our FO was either too patient, or too narrow in their focus, and missed out on opportunities. 

[old nurse]

As lopsided as the trades turned out last year for controllable assets, there are pages wondering why there was very little trades this year.  The rental trade was not lopsided. It did not provide much of a difference, either.  Analytics must have gotten in the way of a trade for the sake of a trade or a trade that fizzles. 

[Doctor Wu]

8 hours ago, DocBauer said:

The one very interesting rumor I did read...and I forget who reported it now...was that the Twins were working a 3 team deal to move Sonny Gray and receive LHSP Eduardo Rodriguez from the Tigers. Presumably, the Tigers would have received prospects/young players from the unnamed 3rd team. Now I really like Gray a ton, and wasn't of the opinion to move him. I love the idea of him accepting the QO, or getting a high pick for him if he refused, wich is probable, but I think I would have really liked to see that deal go through.

I would have been all-in on that trade!

[Doctor Wu]

My crystal ball never works when I want it to, but man, if that trade deadline has been pushed back to this week, I would have sold sold sold!  Unload and start over. That disappointing Tigers series totally took the wind out of my sails in regards to possibly winning a playoff series. Good game in Philly yesterday, but I'm still  not convinced that this team can advance past the first round. So yeah, in retrospect, I'd unload all of the veterans for something/anything. But ... that that ship has sailed, so we just have to hope that guys like Kepler and Gallo start producing again, and our starting pitching kicks it up a notch. Other than Lopez and Maeda, I'm not very confident about the arms in the rotation. 

[Riverbrian]

10 hours ago, DocBauer said:

As to the actual question posed, we'll never know for sure, but I think the extra week WOULD have made a difference. The Angels and Red Sox aren't the only teams to have suddenly disappeared from any shot at playoff contention post deadline, but can't recall the other teams that suddenly went in to a tailspin. (BTW, is anyone of any competence running the Angels)? Short sighted or not, caught off guard or not, I believe Falvey that they were trying to work some deals. I do think the extra week WOULD have changed a few minds and the Twins would probably have added at least a couple players between a RP...or two...and a RH bat. Speculating who would be a fools errand at this point, but the extra week very well might have brought a different deadline for the Twins.

I think you are spot on here. 

The Angels... I don't know... Wow is all I can say. I think they made a horrible mistake... set the franchise back again type mistake. 

All I heard on MLB Radio was Ohtani on the market... where was he gonna go... and then... all of sudden... All I heard on MLB Radio was Ohtani was off the market and all of sudden we have the Angels getting aggressive and going for it. 

I would have traded Ohtani without a 2nd thought for what would have been some pretty nice young talent and hung on to the young talent that they moved to the White Sox and Rockies. They have this nasty habit of consistently draining the farm and failing with the big free agent signings.  

Now If the trade deadline was a week later with the Angels in that horrible tailspin after they impulsively decided to go for it. They don't trade for Giolito, Lopez, Grichuk and Cron. and they are still in the available pool. They not only move Ohtani but they probably add Renfroe to the available pool. 

Do the Padres still add Choi and Cooper after they went 3-6 out of the trade deadline? I don't know... they just might move Snell and Hader in hindsight. 

I think a week later... it's different and maybe the Twins are able to land someone because the pool is a little bit deeper. Maybe... the landscape would certainly change in a weeks time in my opinion.  

[saviking]

But it wasn't ..