Why Morneau's trade value is ebbing rapidly....

[jokin]

Justin Morneau is currently sitting precariously just a tick above the slugger Mendoza line, ie, a .400 mark in SLG. To put this in career perspective, in Morneau's first 7 seasons leading up to his concussion in 2010, he had a SLG ranging from a low of .492, up to .618, in 6 0f those 7 years.

 

While the 2011 comeback year SLG of .333 can certainly be understood and explained away, Morneau showed strong signs of his old self coming back in 2012, hitting 19 HR, 47 XBH and a decent, but not great, .440 SLG.

 

So far in 2013, for long stretches, and even while he's been hitting for average, he looks like a completely different hitter than the pre-concussion days.

 

To put it in perspective via the HR measure, Mauer, Arcia, Plouffe, even Hicks and Parmelee, have double the dingers of Morneau, 4-2.

 

Morneau's current SLG of .401 ranks him 24th among qualified First Baseman. At the current output and large salary consideration, the Twins would be fortunate to get a B- prospect in return. Perhaps eating more of the salary would net something higher, but probably not much more. Mark Grace types on loan in a pennant race just wouldn't be that highly prized as a difference maker in the stretch run.

 

If that's the type of offer out there, do the Twins let the FA thing just play out?

[stringer bell]

It is a real quandry. He's hitting for average, playing good to great first base and certainly is highly regarded by the Twins players and front office. He isn't driving the ball like he used to and he has an injury history with the constant threat that another head injury would end his career. The numbers don't add up to anything that would garner a qualifying offer from the Twins and I still suspect that he won't take a huge pay cut from Minnesota. It's hard to believe he will be a Twin on Opening Day next year and he won't net that much in trade.

[Nick Nelson]

I wouldn't worry too much about it. One way or another, Morneau isn't going to bring in anything spectacular at the deadline. If he heats up, maybe you can flip him for a decent prospect; if not, you hold him and reevaluate at the end of the year.

 

If Parmelee continues to show very little the rest of the way, I'd have no problem with extending the qualifying offer to Morneau, presuming he stays healthy.

[Kwak]

He didn't much trade value--if any. Huge salary, concussion issues, as well as limited power. Morneau is a pure salary dump.

[Mike Sixel]

Well, they have no alternative even close to ready, and they won't sign big money FAs, may as well just make a qualifying offer to him at the end of the year. He's better than Parmalee, or anyone in AA or AAA, I guess. So sad.....he was such a great player, and a great person (it appears from the outside, anyway).

[stringer bell]

Well, they have no alternative even close to ready, and they won't sign big money FAs, may as well just make a qualifying offer to him at the end of the year. He's better than Parmalee, or anyone in AA or AAA, I guess. So sad.....he was such a great player, and a great person (it appears from the outside, anyway).

I dunno. I disagree with Nick and you (Mike). Saying that Morneau continues through the year with low power numbers, but healthy, and Parmelee improves marginally (.725 to .775 OPS), I would bet on the young guy getting better at less than 10% of the salary. With Parm showing proficiency as an OF, it would give the Twins the flexibility of using Mauer more at first and perhaps going with a guy like Pinto as backup catcher.

[Mike Sixel]

stringer, I'm pretty indifferent, if Parmalee can show he can be good.....but he has not shown that at all so far. As for salary, does not really matter. That money won't be used anyway, so who cares (other than the Pohlad's and the "payroll!" people).....if they do want Parm as an option next year, he NeeDS to play now.

[Oxtung]

I think they should trade him for whatever they can get. I would hope for perhaps a Polanco or Kepler in another teams system. Someone in A ball that looks to have upside.

 

Morneau won't be around in 2016 when this team has a chance to be a contender. When you're rebuilding, and especially when you're rebuilding solely through the draft and trades, you can't afford to squander any chips on the table. Every decision needs to be made with 2016 in mind and unfortunately that means moving Morneau.

 

If Parmelee doesn't pan out there will be options available in FA this year. Some of them are even superior to Morneau, as it stands right now.

 

Just to be clear, my opinion would be different if the Twins were willing to go out and spend to fill the holes on this roster but that "try to win now with FA's while waiting for our prospects to come up in 2-3 years" attitude doesn't seem to exist.

[nokomismod]

Hmm. If he continues to have very little trade value, I wouldn't mind the Twins signing him to a 3 year deal similar to what Doumit or Willingham were signed for. It would be great to have a few veterans around at a decent price for the rebuild. I don't know if his mechanics are accounting for his power loss, if he just isn't as strong, or possibly that he has changed his mechanics due to the dimensions at Target Field.

[Boom Boom]

It seems ironic to me that Morneau's best chance to remain a Twin is to continue hitting at a mediocre clip.

[Alex]

I wouldn't worry too much about it. One way or another, Morneau isn't going to bring in anything spectacular at the deadline. If he heats up, maybe you can flip him for a decent prospect; if not, you hold him and reevaluate at the end of the year.

 

If Parmelee continues to show very little the rest of the way, I'd have no problem with extending the qualifying offer to Morneau, presuming he stays healthy.

 

A qualifying offer-about $13.3M-- to a 1B with an OPS of .748 on pace to finish with fewer than 10 HR? I love Morneau, but he'll take that offer in a second (or he'll decline and no team will pay the pick). Even if he gets going and had a season like he did last year, he's not worth it.

 

Currently, he's a league average hitter (OPS+ 104), which the Twins can certainly use, but at 1B that means he's well below average. Among qualified 1B he's 26th in SLG and 21st in OPS. He is 10th in OBP and 7th in Average, so he has some value, but not that much.

 

I'd agree that if Parmelee continues to struggle, resigning Morneau becomes an option, but at somewhere around $5-$7M.

[Mike Sixel]

A qualifying offer-about $13.3M-- to a 1B with an OPS of .748 on pace to finish with fewer than 10 HR? I love Morneau, but he'll take that offer in a second (or he'll decline and no team will pay the pick). Even if he gets going and had a season like he did last year, he's not worth it.

 

Currently, he's a league average hitter (OPS+ 104), which the Twins can certainly use, but at 1B that means he's well below average. Among qualified 1B he's 26th in SLG and 21st in OPS. He is 10th in OBP and 7th in Average, so he has some value, but not that much.

 

I'd agree that if Parmelee continues to struggle, resigning Morneau becomes an option, but at somewhere around $5-$7M.

 

 

What does the money matter? How different are the Twins if they sign him for $13MM, or $7MM? And, you can't sign him for that unless he is a FA......why sign here for what you can get elsewhere at this point?*

 

*family, I guess

[mcrow]

Without power he's a slappy 1b which not too many people would give you much for. Honestly, the only teams that would have serious interest in him are contenders and I can't see any contenders that don't already have a 1b better than or equal to Justin. Without power he's not exactly appealing as a DH either. Add in injury, concussion, salary and being 32 and there is little value there. You'd be trading him away for peanuts and the salary dump if you could get anyone to take him.

[ashbury]

I think they should trade him for whatever they can get. I would hope for perhaps a Polanco or Kepler in another teams system. Someone in A ball that looks to have upside.

 

Would you trade Kepler to get a Morneau who's in another team's system? Someone on the major league squad with an expiring contract and mediocre numbers?

[John Bonnes]

A qualifying offer-about $13.3M-- to a 1B with an OPS of .748 on pace to finish with fewer than 10 HR? I love Morneau, but he'll take that offer in a second (or he'll decline and no team will pay the pick). Even if he gets going and had a season like he did last year, he's not worth it.

 

Currently, he's a league average hitter (OPS+ 104), which the Twins can certainly use, but at 1B that means he's well below average. Among qualified 1B he's 26th in SLG and 21st in OPS. He is 10th in OBP and 7th in Average, so he has some value, but not that much.

 

I'd agree that if Parmelee continues to struggle, resigning Morneau becomes an option, but at somewhere around $5-$7M.

 

There is no way the Twins can give him a qualifying offer right now. None. Even if we think the Twins are going to further cut payroll, they can't just burn $7M on Morneau.

[Alex]

What does the money matter? How different are the Twins if they sign him for $13MM, or $7MM? And, you can't sign him for that unless he is a FA......why sign here for what you can get elsewhere at this point?*

 

*family, I guess

 

What does the money matter? It matters because you could get a better hitter for $13M than Morneau. If they pay something more at his actual value, then they have more money to spend elsewhere -- simple math, but basically I just don't think it's a good idea to throw away money.

 

As for "you can't sign him unless he is a FA," seriously? They can certainly negotiate an extension prior to the end of the season. I just can't imagine a team paying him that much money, and if they do, more power to him.

[Oxtung]

Would you trade Kepler to get a Morneau who's in another team's system? Someone on the major league squad with an expiring contract and mediocre numbers?

 

There are so many unknowns in this hypothetical it is very hard to say. I would if the right circumstances were in place.

[Alex]

There is no way the Twins can give him a qualifying offer right now. None. Even if we think the Twins are going to further cut payroll, they can't just burn $7M on Morneau.

 

I agree (and that was my point -- he's not worth it. I was going to call it "crazy" but refrained).

 

$7M would be the high end obviously, and he's not hitting THAT bad and on a 1-year deal for a team that may not have an immediate option at 1B...Overall, though, I agree that they can probably even get more value for the $7M than Morneau. Though, know the FA value and who could sign for what in terms of 1B types better than I do.

 

My point was just that I don't mind bringing him back for cheaper if we don't have another option.

[Mike Sixel]

you can't cut a salary more than 20% in one year, unless he is a FA, them's the rules......"you can't sign him FOR THAT...." is what I said.

 

you are right, other teams COULD get better players for that, but Ryan won't sign big time FAs....and they get $25Mm more in revenue next year, so no, the money does not matter at all.

 

It's not like they'd use that money on something else....ryan showed that again this year.

[Alex]

you can't cut a salary more than 20% in one year, unless he is a FA, them's the rules......"you can't sign him FOR THAT...." is what I said.

 

you are right, other teams COULD get better players for that, but Ryan won't sign big time FAs....and they get $25Mm more in revenue next year, so no, the money does not matter at all.

 

It's not like they'd use that money on something else....ryan showed that again this year.

 

I now see your point. Makes sense. Thanks.

 

I don't disagree on the Twins money management either, but that doesn't mean I won't be rational;)

[Mike Sixel]

heck, I could be wrong......but if I'm him, I test the FA water, and try to play for a winner. Because this team is not winning much more next year either....

[Winston Smith]

I think he has made a lot of money (I hope he has saved some) and the Mariners are a short drive from his home town. Go finish your last couple years at home (no need to break the bank) plus they could use anyone that can hit even a little.

Go home young man! You had some great years for the Twins but time moves on for all of us.

[matthew0211]

you can't cut a salary more than 20% in one year, unless he is a FA, them's the rules......"you can't sign him FOR THAT...." is what I said.

 

Correct me if I'm wrong, but doesn't the 20% rule only apply to players that are going through the arbitration process, that aren't yet eligible for free agency? I believe the Twins have every right to not give Morneau a qualifying offer at the end of this year, and then, if he agrees, sign him to an amount much less than he's making this year.

[mcrow]

I think he has made a lot of money (I hope he has saved some) and the Mariners are a short drive from his home town. Go finish your last couple years at home (no need to break the bank) plus they could use anyone that can hit even a little.

Go home young man! You had some great years for the Twins but time moves on for all of us.

 

Seems possible. I just don't see any team wanting to take on his salary for the level of production at his position. He's certainly a good enough hitter to play somewhere next season and he's solid with the glove. Seems like Seattle might be a nice fit for a guy to play somewhere that needs him in the lineup and close to home so he can wind down the career.

[Mike Sixel]

I said I could be wrong.....I thought for them to cut his pay by more than 20%, he had to be a FA. But, I could be wrong........

 

either way, it does not matter. That money won't be spent anyplace else anyway. If you want to keep him, pay him a random number he'll accept. Because the money is there.

 

As for home, I think his wife is from here, and his kids are here.....so this could be home now for him (unlike others, he chooses to live here I believe).

[Rosterman]

You got three choices:

 

(1) Sign him for an agreed upon long-term deal.

 

(2) Give him a qualifying offer and overpay him for one year in which you really don't need him, or get a draft pick for him.

 

(3) Trade him mid-season if you continue to tank, get a prospect that has shown some life in another team's system. You are then in a better position to offer him a lowball free agent contract, depending on how many others are looking for a first abseman.

 

Right now, he is Doug Mientkiewicz lite. I would love for him to be around 2-3-4 more years in some capacity (depending on salary) and be our eventual DH who can also play first. But with his current situation, he is replaceable. Parmelee has been given the opportunity (albeit in right field) to step up and claim the position, but is failing to do so.

 

The question is: Can Parmelee fill the shoes with a part-time Mauer and Doumit also playing the bag. If so, then you need a top-flight backup catcher.

 

We still have two months to see where the Twins are this year and for them to make a decision if 2014 is actually a run year or a rebuilding year. They have the money to burn, so paying a potential qualifying offer wouldn't kill them for 2014. I doubt anyone would give him more, unless Justin is looking for a multi-year contract in a town that he really wants to play in (Toronto? Arizona?).

 

Who knows, Mauer may be the first baseman of the Twins future (but who catches). It's always sad to move on, but we have seen Hunter, Cuddyer, Nathan, Santana amongst others depart. We can, sadly, wave goodbye to Morneau, sooner probably rather than later.

[fairweather]

Parmalee is just pressing too hard. Once he relaxes he will hit much better.

[fairweather]

I also think it's entirely possible the Morneau will have a power surge in the near future. The other part of this that hasn't been mentioned yet is that if he doesn't show increased power over the remainder of the season or if he spends time on the DL or slumps and his average drops the Twins mite be 1 of very few teams interested in his services next season and beyond. If the Twins play their cards right they might be able to keep him around cheap which I'm sure is the number 1 priority of Captain Cheap-O Terry Ryan.

[Siehbiscuit]

I would not be shocked in the least to see Morneau dealt at the deadline to a contender that sees a solid BA and OBP and hanging onto the potential of Morneau's power being restored at a park other than Target Field. His potential still holds value. He isn't a has been, because he is still hitting well, just not for power. It only takes one team that is desperate to offer a decent prospect.

 

I could also see the Twins pursuing him again this off-season for 2 years $9-10 million if Parmalee falls on his face in the 2nd half with full-time at bats.

[jokin]

He isn't a has been, because he is still hitting well, just not for power. It only takes one team that is desperate to offer a decent prospect.

 

 

.....and just not acceptable for a First Baseman.

 

To reiterate, his SLG is 24th among all First Basemen, and his OPS at .749 is 21st. The list is literally littered with cheaper and better acquisition targets- why would a desperate GM take a chance on an expensive option with a MIer-like batting line, + concussion issues, over multiple numbers of 1B options for healthy, proven sluggers?