3 Stats that Define the 2023 Twins

[Cody Pirkl]

It’s hard to look at just a few stats to summarize a team’s season considering how many layers there are to the game of baseball, but the Twins have made it easier than usual. Just a handful of them paints a pretty vivid picture of the Twins season.

Image courtesy of Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

It's always felt like the Twins were being held back, potentially by themselves, in questionable ways. Pythagorean record agrees that the Twins should be at least a bit better, but they repeatedly fail to pick up any momentum for whatever reason. A few stats tell the story of why this might be.

.657 OPS Against Left-Handed Pitchers
That's good for 21% below league average by OPS+ against southpaws. Simply facing a left-handed pitcher of any caliber throws any momentum off course. It makes no sense from Buxton's .627 OPS against lefties to Kyle Farmer (.691 OPS) and Carlos Correa (.700 OPS) putting up below-league-average lines in these matchups. It continues to hamper an offense that has struggled overall.

It doesn't help that the Twins' best hitters, such as Edouard Julien and Alex Kirilloff are left-handed. Still, the team's continued struggles from their right-handed hitters defy decades of matchup data and years of data these players have accumulated in their careers. Like much of the 2023 Twins season, the team's stats against left-handed pitching are headache-inducing.

Carlos Correa's .691 OPS
Can blame be directed at one single player on a disappointing baseball team? Surely not. If it could, Carlos Correa would be the #1 candidate for the Twins. They completed the Hail Mary this winter by waiting out free agency, hoping the former cornerstone shortstop would find his way back to Minnesota. He made $32m in 2023 and is expected to be a key cog in the offensive machine. Instead, Correa has caused an endless series of misfires.

His OPS places him comfortably below average offensively, and despite his still stellar shortstop defense, by fWAR, Correa is tied for 6th highest on the team with Max Kepler and Michael A. Taylor with 0.9. His assumed backup, Kyle Farmer, has been more valuable overall by this measure despite playing in 19 fewer games. Correa has crippled the offense in the heart of the lineup, bouncing into a league-leading 20 double plays and showing that he can be beaten by fastballs repeatedly. So far, the Twins Dior-level investment has brought them Axe Chocolate Body Spray level returns (gross).

Sonny Gray's 4-4 Record
On Thursday evening, Sonny Gray earned his first win since April 30. Within this stretch are a few noteworthy numbers. Gray's 3.32 ERA earned him an all-star game nod and has him on pace for his first 4+ fWAR season since 2019 in Cincinnati. Despite his inconsistencies sometimes, he's pitching at peak levels for his career. Such a performance should have a pitcher on pace for 12-15 wins, at the very least, but not Sonny.

In St. Louis, the Twins spotted Gray five runs of cushion, good for 9% of the run support he's received in 21 starts this season. His 4 wins symbolize the potent pitching performances the Twins squandered during the first half of the season by completely no-showing on offense. The Twins have lost 15 games this season when allowing three runs or fewer, the most in baseball. While win/loss records have become a measurement of the past, Gray's record in relation to the rest of his numbers shows where things have gone wrong for the Twins.

We'll never know why 2023 has gone how it has, but inconsistency has been the name of the game for the Twins. Here's hoping they can outlast the Cleveland Guardians, who have given them every opportunity to take home a division title. There will always be some head-scratching stats on the record for 2023, and these are just a few of them.

View full article

[Minny505]

"So far, the Twins Dior-level investment has brought them Axe Chocolate Body Spray level returns (gross)." 

Well played! 

[ashbury]

Those are 3 good stats. My 3:

• .438 OPS with the bases loaded. This has been mentioned to death, and when you slice and dice data this way you end up with the dreaded Small Sample Size - and yet, bases loaded very often represents a key opportunity in the entire game, because if you're behind it's a chance to catch up in a hurry, if the game's close it can tip the scales your way, and if you're ahead it can ice the victory.  They've had 97 such opportunities this year, so about once a game, about on a par with the league, and no team has a worse OPS than our Twins, nor fewer RBIs.  If you want to define 2023, this stands out to me.
• Michael A Taylor leads the team with 100 game appearances, but is only 6th in Plate Appearances.  This is mostly just a way of saying we miss a productive Byron Buxton in CF, but it also points up the gyrations the manager has to make with his lineup to hide MAT's bat as much as possible while trying to reap the benefit of his good glove.  Byron, get well!
• Minnesota has 3 of the top 40 in terms of pitching starts across the majors, with 22 apiece.  There are other teams with this distinction, and Washington and Toronto both have 4. But the 2023 Twins are defined by being founded on starting pitching, and for the most part the plan for the starting staff (and keeping them healthy) has proved sound.  Joe Ryan going on the injured list is a potential crack in that foundation, however.

[mikelink45]

I cannot ignore the Ks - 1140 - the worst in the league

BA - 10TH in league - 236

Hits - 11th of 15 - 883 - compare that to Ks

SF - 20 - last in the league which explains some of the bases loaded weakness. 

Saves - 26 - ranks 10th.

[Dave Borton]

Cody said, "...the Twins Dior-level investment has brought them Axe Chocolate Body Spray level returns."

Man, I thought I was PO'd off at Correa's performance (chuckles).

[Dave Borton]

Cody said: "Here's hoping they can outlast the Cleveland Guardians, who have given them every opportunity to take home a division title."

I never underestimate Francona to motivate his youngest MLB team, despite trades. He's an old fox and young ballplayers have ears which listen. Careful Twins.

[Dave Borton]

1 hour ago, ashbury said:

438 OPS with the bases loaded. . . They've had 97 such opportunities this year, so about once a game, about on a par with the league, and no team has a worse OPS than our Twins, nor fewer RBIs. 

For me, this stat combined w/Ks, exemplifies fundamental problem w/batting philosophy, instruction, and execution.

I really expected an examination by the FO and field manager at break but I think they are more committed to external data sets than internal dynamics/reality. 

Mules.

[Dave Borton]

1 hour ago, ashbury said:

Byron, get well!

Buxton's knee/wheels are as good as they are going to get.

Tragically, phenomenal athletic skills are compromised by a delicate muscular/skeletal frame. Almost as tragic is a FO which ignored injury history and was unable to get a $100MM salary insured.

[ferg8791]

Buxton is the #1 culprit.

At least Correa is playing decent defense. It's not his fault they continue to bat him at the top end of the lineup. Correa should be hitting 7-9 with those awful numbers.

Buck has spent most of the season costing us two roster spots as we have witnessed absudly prolonged slumps over and over again with Michael Talyor forced out of the reserve roll which was intended. The #3 spot in the lineup has been the least productive position in the Twins lineup - Buck / 134AB with an OPS of .580. That's embarrassing. Plus, If he can't play in the field then he shouldn't be running the bases. It's counter productive to the team and his recovery.

Ending his season right now seems like the best option for everyone involved.

[Doctor Wu]

And then there are all the strikeouts, and more strikeouts ... hey, we are leading the league in something at least. We might also mention Correa's tendency this year to hit into double plays. I think he's among the league leaders in that category too, but fact check me on that. 

[Karbo]

OPS seems to have gotten so popular now. But look at a couple of other stats. On base % Twins rank #20. Avg. #21. Sure they rank in top half (barely at #13) in slugging, but if you don't get on base it is usually tough to win. As someone said solo homers don't beat you.

[terrydactyls]

The OP says that the Twins right-handed batters haven't held their own against left-handed pitching and it is magnified by their best hitters also being left-handed.  My thought is:  why not let the best hitters face left-handed pitchers.  Screw analytics and let the best players play.

[Cave Bear]

5 minutes ago, terrydactyls said:

The OP says that the Twins right-handed batters haven't held their own against left-handed pitching and it is magnified by their best hitters also being left-handed.  My thought is:  why not let the best hitters face left-handed pitchers.  Screw analytics and let the best players play.

Totally agree - put the clipboard down and use your brain on occasion. For someone who played the game Rocco sometimes looks clueless.

[Reptevia]

“We'll never know why 2023 has gone how it has, but inconsistency has been the name of the game for the Twins”. When the whole team is under performing, you blame the coaches. It is statistically very unlikely that all the players expected to drive this club are all having career worst years at the same time. Not to mention that our prospects seem to do much better once they leave this organization.