Rumor: Angels Go All In, Take Ohtani Off The Market, Add Lucas Giolito and Reynaldo Lopez

[Mike Sixel]

9 minutes ago, laloesch said:

The Twins could have drafted Giolito in 2012 or Max Fried.  Many of the top 2012 draft picks were busts.

who cares?

[Mike Sixel]

This article makes a great point about 24 and 25....

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/angels-bet-on-themselves-acquire-giolito-and-lopez-to-bolster-playoff-hopes/

 

[jkcarew]

3 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

Now, the only long term pieces they have from that era is Luis Robert and an Eloy Jimenez who barely plays in the field any more and is probably a two month slump away from not having his option picked up.

And what the ____ happened to Yoan Moncada?? Maybe he’s really 38 instead of 28?

[nicksaviking]

4 minutes ago, jkcarew said:

And what the ____ happened to Yoan Moncada?? Maybe he’s really 38 instead of 28?

Moncada got crushed worse than Max Kepler after 2019 de-juicing. He was supposed to be the big power threat that would also strike out a ton. Then the ball stopped flying off his bat but he still struck out a ton.

[jkcarew]

I get why the Angels FO may have felt the need to do this.

But, I still think it’s dumb. Just as many fans will be pisses when they fail to sign Ohtani as would have been if they had traded him. 
 

And they overpaid, besides. If it results in them signing Giolito, though…

[nicksaviking]

35 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Yes, this. The Angels farm system is

Walker Jenkins is a #1 overall pick in the draft some years and a top three pick in almost every year. The Angels don't have anything equivalent to that.

Nor anything equivalent to a GM or owner.

[Brock Beauchamp]

11 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

who cares?

In 2012 the Twins used their top two picks to draft Byron Buxton, then Jose Berrios.

I'm quite comfortable with the results of their 2012 draft.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Just now, nicksaviking said:

Nor anything equivalent to a GM or owner.

I'm not sure about their GM yet. Their owner is obviously a meddling doofus.

[Brock Beauchamp]

3 minutes ago, jkcarew said:

I get why the Angels FO may have felt the need to do this.

I suspect the Angels FO is operating under direct orders from ownership right now.

And that's fine, I guess, but it makes it hard to call anything the front office does "dumb".

[jkcarew]

1 minute ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

I suspect the Angels FO is operating under direct orders from ownership right now.

And that's fine, I guess, but it makes it hard to call anything the front office does "dumb".

Fair.

[nicksaviking]

26 minutes ago, laloesch said:

The Twins could have drafted Giolito in 2012 or Max Fried.  Many of the top 2012 draft picks were busts.

No one was picking Fried in the top five. Appel was the near consensus top player, but once the Astros and Twins went with HS kids, he fell because everyone knew he was going to require #1 money to sign. So the Twins dodged the landmine that should have been the obvious choice by skipping him.

Giolito would have been a contender to go #1 but he wasn't pitching due to a UCL sprain. This organization seems to get dragged over the coals already for disregarding UCL issues.

[nicksaviking]

7 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

I suspect the Angels FO is operating under direct orders from ownership right now.

And that's fine, I guess, but it makes it hard to call anything the front office does "dumb".

I'm sure the Angels feel that their only chance at keeping Ohtani is by making a long-shot playoff run. 

It seems like they're throwing away the future for an improbability, but without Ohtani, there probably isn't much of a future regardless of the prospects. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

Just now, nicksaviking said:

I'm sure the Angels feel that their only chance at keeping Ohtani is by making a long-shot playoff run. 

It seems like they're throwing away the future for an improbability, but without Ohtani, there probably isn't much of a future regardless of the prospects. 

They're not wrong in that regard. Trout can't stay healthy and is getting older while the Angels farm system is pathetic. And no team can buy their way out of a hole that large.

[jkcarew]

2 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

The central looks no more difficult next year, this FO needs to figure out the OF for the future (and put Lee at whatever position he's going to play in the majors already). 

This.

A huge opportunity here to figure out how to be legitimately good in 2024….AND still compete (win) a divisional title this year.

Just need to act on it.

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

White Sox are such an odd team. They're in a big market but act more like the Rays. Biggest K they ever handed out was the $75M to Benintendi. What do they do with Tim Anderson? He has the club option for 2024 but they're not going to give him a long-term deal and they're not going to contend next season - so why keep him?

[Cap'n Piranha]

3 hours ago, Nashvilletwin said:

You are correct - any prospect that becomes an everyday starter as a big leaguer should be viewed as an excellent outcome. It’s just really hard.  But you must admit, #2 and #3 prospects should have a higher probability of success than lower ones - even those ranked as low as Steer and CES.

Who knows?  But personally I’d rather take the prospect of facing Gio one more time late in the year with the ChiSox eliminated than the prospect of facing whatever two of Lee, Rodriguez or Jenkins become for years in the future.

But the real point of my post is that teams like the Angels can make these kinds of trades while it’s a lot riskier for franchises like the Twins.

I would argue the opposite--the Angels might be the team least able to make these trades, because they might be in the worst cap situation of all.  Assuming the Angels re-sign Ohtani and Giolito (since they're still long shots to make the playoffs--16% according to fangraphs--they have to for this deal to be anything other than a massive mistake), it's not unreasonable to think they will have $145 MILLION allocated to 4 players/5 positions (say Ohtani at $50M filling 2 spots, Trout at $38M, Rendon at $37M, Giolito at $20M).  It's not out of the realm of possibility either that Ohtani wants $60M or more, and Giolito wants $25M, which would push it to $160M or more.

They're also committed to another $35M between Anderson, Drury, Stassi, and Anderson so they're closing on $200M for only 9 roster spots, meaning even if they want to increase their payroll to $250M (higher than anyone other than the Mets and Yankees--two teams the Angels are not in the same tier as financially), they'll have to pay their other 17 players less than $3M on average, which means they'll have to non-tender some of their arb-eligible guys.  But, as has been pointed out, the Angels have one of the worst farm systems in the league, and given the payroll limitations outlined above, do not have the ability to spend out of that.  It's pretty clear to me that the Angels have the worst top-to-bottom player pool in all of baseball, in terms of ability to actually build a WS contender.

[Vanimal46]

35 minutes ago, Twins_Fan_in_NJ said:

What do they do with Tim Anderson? He has the club option for 2024 but they're not going to give him a long-term deal and they're not going to contend next season - so why keep him?

Ask and you shall receive…

MLBTR - Marlins Show Interest in Tim Anderson

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

25 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

Ask and you shall receive…

MLBTR - Marlins Show Interest in Tim Anderson

Good find.

[Mike Sixel]

That fangraphs article shows how bad 24 and 25 will be if they don't bring back Ohtani..... And maybe even if they do. There is no near term future to break. In context, this actually makes sense. Unless you can trade both him and trout and get super lucky....

[Squirrel]

6 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

Hopefully Chicago's next rebuild goes as successfully as their last one.

Lol ... concur.

[laloesch]

2 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

No one was picking Fried in the top five. Appel was the near consensus top player, but once the Astros and Twins went with HS kids, he fell because everyone knew he was going to require #1 money to sign. So the Twins dodged the landmine that should have been the obvious choice by skipping him.

Giolito would have been a contender to go #1 but he wasn't pitching due to a UCL sprain. This organization seems to get dragged over the coals already for disregarding UCL issues.

it's very possible the Twins would have drafted Giolito if he hadn't sprained his UCL certainly a top five pick.  Aside from Correa and Buxton, Mike Zunino, Gausman, Zimmer, Almora, have all been mediocre at best and they were the top 1-6.  Appel fell below to 8 and didn't sign.  Interesting how the Twins ended up with the #1 and #2 picks at the end of the day.    

[Shobae]

White Sox pulled off a heist here, imagine giving up a 50 FV prospects when you have one of the lowest ranked farm systems in the MLB for a projected 61 innings of 4+ ERA pitching. I thought teams figured out they were massively overpaying for rentals but it seems the angels didn't get the memo. Though as the fangraphs article mentioned they are basically desperate as heck so they're just blowing up the future to eek out an extra 2-3% of playoff odds.
Though maybe Ohtani was pleased with the trade and rewarded the team with a 1 hitter and a 2 home run performance. So if it keeps him happy and productive this season maybe it's worth it after all. (well not when he leaves but nothing they can do about that).

[Rik19753]

This is definitely not a great move on the Angels' part from a roster-building perspective. Nonetheless, I love it.

In this day and age of sabermetrics and data, it seems like it's exceedingly rare for a team sitting in the Angels' position to throw caution to the winds and go all-in. While it certainly doesn't bode well for them long-term, I love that they have faith in their team, and faith in Ohtani and Trout, to lead them to the promised land this year even despite their recent history of ineptitude. I understand why most teams don't do this, but I'd like to see more of this "do or die" mentality from these fringe playoff teams. It makes the sport much more entertaining IMO. I'll definitely be rooting for them this year.

[Vanimal46]

One month later…

I’ll take Moore, Lopez, and Giolito. Thanks Angels!

[nicksaviking]

W.T.H.

How does anyone in that building, aside from players Ohtani and Trout, still have a job? Mass firings must be upcoming. Absolutely mind boggling, and frankly, a bush league move.

Any chance the Twins can get any of them? The Giants, Reds and Marlins all still have worse records and still in the playoff hunt.

[Vanimal46]

3 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

Any chance the Twins can get any of them?

Maybe the RH outfielders Renfroe and Grichuk. But frankly they’re not that much better than Luplow. 

[nicksaviking]

15 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

Maybe the RH outfielders Renfroe and Grichuk. But frankly they’re not that much better than Luplow. 

Yeah, I don't want them, I want the pitchers.

But this front office and their love of veteran hitters...... that's probably where their mind is. I'd rather see the options in St. Paul.

All of these guys are making good money this year aside from Lopez though; it'd still be about 3M apiece for the other four players. If ownership told them they couldn't blow any more money at the deadline, they might tell them the same here. But, the team is in a much more fan-enthusiastic spot than they were a month ago, so maybe things have changed.

[lecroy24fan]

Came out today that the Angels avoided going over the luxury tax threshold by $30k. So all the releases/trades worked. But that is not what got them under. It was placing Max Stassi on the restricted list that pushed them under, as that happened after all of that. They made this move so they would not have to pay him while he was away from the team to tend to be with his newborn child, who has had severe health issues. 

Arte Moreno is an ******* for this move. 

[KirbyDome89]

1 minute ago, lecroy24fan said:

Came out today that the Angels avoided going over the luxury tax threshold by $30k. So all the releases/trades worked. But that is not what got them under. It was placing Max Stassi on the restricted list that pushed them under, as that happened after all of that. They made this move so they would not have to pay him while he was away from the team to tend to be with his newborn child, who has had severe health issues. 

Arte Moreno is an ******* for this move. 

Wow, what a POS. 

Ethics and all else aside, I'd love to know how LA is protected, i.e. allowed, to use the exempt list this way. It feels like a classic case of abusing the system here. If there was ever a time for the MLBPA to get involved (and mine some good will) this would be it. 

[Mike Sixel]

23 hours ago, KirbyDome89 said:

Wow, what a POS. 

Ethics and all else aside, I'd love to know how LA is protected, i.e. allowed, to use the exempt list this way. It feels like a classic case of abusing the system here. If there was ever a time for the MLBPA to get involved (and mine some good will) this would be it. 

Ya, awful people do awful stuff.