Is Popkins Next Firing in MLB Coaches Mid-Season

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

4 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

I think Padres fans would probably tell you his presence isn't enough to save an underperforming major league lineup in 2023.

Fair point but I think that team has major chemistry issues and things going on behind the scenes. Maybe the Twins have the same issues, I don't know. But just from an approach standpoint, I'd like to see if Cruz could offer a different insight. I think we can all agree whatever it is that Popkins is doing - it isn't working.

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

2 hours ago, Nine of twelve said:

Interesting thought, hiring him as a coach rather than as a player. The question is whether his talent as a power hitter would translate into working with all types of hitters to get the most out of the skills they happen to have. Keep in mind that the Twins' hitting success in 2019 was due to power hitting, which was the correct approach for that season due to use of baseballs with low air resistance. Baseball (and baseballs) are quite different now compared to then.

Good call on the differences between 2019 and 2023. It does seem like this team is focused on dead-pull and trying to lift the ball and that would have worked in 2019.

[chpettit19]

5 minutes ago, Twins_Fan_in_NJ said:

Fair point but I think that team has major chemistry issues and things going on behind the scenes. Maybe the Twins have the same issues, I don't know. But just from an approach standpoint, I'd like to see if Cruz could offer a different insight. I think we can all agree whatever it is that Popkins is doing - it isn't working.

Yeah, I have no idea how good of a hitting coach Cruz would be. And, really, none of us know how good any of these hitting coaches, or guys we may suggest, are. I'm generally not someone who blames coaches for a lot of things in baseball. I don't think there's any hitting coach in baseball that could make this a good lineup. I don't know that what Popkins is doing isn't the right thing. I know the results are trash, but I don't know that it's his fault. Because I also know that this lineup lacked a lot coming into the season. I'm just not sold that firing a hitting coach is going to fix a flawed lineup.

Outside of Buxton, Correa, and Miranda I don't see anyone performing poorly that I'm shocked by. And Miranda struggling isn't a shock, just the extent of his struggles is shocking. But the rest are pretty much doing what I expected, and a couple are actually outdoing what I expected. But it's a team built around 3 "stars" (Polanco being the 3rd) that are all 2nd level star hitters (not overall players, but bat alone they aren't elite) and a bunch of severely flawed players they hoped to mix and match into a good lineup. When your 3 "stars" are playing like replacement level players, or hurt, there's not a hitting coach alive that can turn the other flawed players into good enough hitters to carry the team. 

This team was short 1, and probably 2, truly frontline bats coming into the year, and their three 2nd tier bats have all collapsed. Nobody is fixing that, in my opinion.

[KirbyDome89]

18 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

I agree with this whole paragraph. My argument isn't that they don't de-emphasize Ks or want to put the ball in the air. My argument is that isn't a different approach than in 2019. That's the exact same approach they had in 2019. They were just better at actually hitting the ball, and putting it in the air, in 2019. This is the approach the Twins have had since Falvine got here. And firing Popkins isn't going to change that approach because it's the approach that Falvine thinks is the right one. They just have less talented players this year so the results are different. But the approach isn't.

Yeah I think the desired results have remained unchanged, but what they're willing to tolerate to chase those results seems to have shifted. I just can't chalk up this many guys posting such high K rates to simply a talent deficiency. 

Agreed on Popkins stayling/going. 

[chpettit19]

1 hour ago, KirbyDome89 said:

Yeah I think the desired results have remained unchanged, but what they're willing to tolerate to chase those results seems to have shifted. I just can't chalk up this many guys posting such high K rates to simply a talent deficiency. 

Agreed on Popkins stayling/going. 

I still don't understand what you mean by "willing to tolerate," but reasonable minds can disagree. Here's my breakdown of the guys on the 40 man:

Jeffers: K% up from last year, but down significantly from 2021 when he had nearly twice as many PAs. Having best year since his 62 PA rookie year in 2020. 
Vazquez: K% up significantly over last 2 years, and up from career norms before that, but not as drastically.
Correa: Up significantly from his career best 2021 season, and slightly up from last year, but pretty much right at where he was from 2018 through 2020.
Farmer: Up significantly.
Gallo: Pretty much right where he was last year. This is who he is.
Julien: Was always a pretty high K rate guy in the minors, but no major league data to go on so no real thoughts here.
Kirilloff: Up slightly from his first 2 partial seasons, but I'm not willing to make any definitive statements on a guy with his injury history and small sample size.
Lewis: Nowhere near enough data for me have an opinion on. I will say that his public statements about doing what's best for him at the plate ("being Arraez") is a point for me in the idea that these guys don't just blindly do what they're told if they don't see results.
Miranda: Down from last year, but not enough data to really speak on him either.
Polanco: We've been over him. He's been hurt the last 2 years, and his 2021 was a rounding error jump. Hard for me to say 1 way or the other on this particular year based on his lack of playing, and being hurt when he did play.
Solano: He's 5 Ks above his rate from last year (has 55 Ks, 50 would put him at 20%), and is an aging, part-time player thrust into everyday playing time (he's 2 games short of his games played from last year already) so I'm not going to say he's a massive spike of any kind.
Castro: Up from last year, but right in line with, or lower than (SSS), the rest of his major league career.
Celestino: Hasn't played
Gordon: Cut his K% in more than half (11.8%) from previous 2 seasons (23.7 and 25.5), but super SSS so no real data there.
Kepler: Significant spike from last year, solid spike from career norms. He's not been good.
Larnach: Right in line with other SSS career norms.
MAT: Significant jump from last 3 years. Has not been good.
Wallner: Cut his K% from last year (39.5) more than in half (16), but super SSS so no real data there. But he's been a K machine his whole minor league career. Pretty much is who he is.
Buxton: Same as last year, but up from 3 seasons before that. Playing hurt, and with his streakiness, and playing time history, I don't read much into him.

So I have 5 guys who I see as having real spikes in there K% this year (Buxton, MAT, Kepler, Farmer, Vazquez).
5 guys I'd say are within a reasonable fluctuation of who we'd expect them to be (Larnach, Castro, Solano, Gallo, Correa)
1 guy who's improved/doing better than we'd expect him (Jeffers)
And 8 guys that have too small, or no, sample size for me to really have an opinion on (Wallner, Gordon, Celestino, Polanco, Miranda, Lewis, Kirilloff, Julien). And they range from drastic improvement (Gordon and Wallner) to big spike (Polanco and Lewis) with the others in between.

Is that good? Nope. But I don't see some clear sign that they're doing anything drastically different in approach than they have since Falvine was hired. Adding Gallo alone is naturally going to spike your overall K%. I just don't think 5 guys having career worst years is crazy. Especially when 4 of those guys weren't great hitters to start with, and aren't exactly young.

[Unwinder]

On 7/10/2023 at 4:06 PM, chpettit19 said:

If this FO fires Popkins they wouldn't suddenly bring in a hitting coach that specializes in slapping the ball around and never striking out. I know I'm a broken record around here, but coaches simply don't have magic potions that suddenly turn bad hitters into good ones.

I don't think that a new coach is going to overhaul the team's hitting philosophy, but some people are good teachers and some people are bad teachers, and maybe a good teacher trying to coach these guys to hit a lot of homers is going to have more success than Popkins. I mean, you can have two Algebra classes teaching from the same exact books and have one class test well, and the other class test poorly because one class has a good teacher and the other class has a bad teacher. I don't think an offense based on sacrificing contact for power is inherently a bad thing, but I don't get the impression that Popkins knows how to equip these guys to do it successfully. The all-or-nothing approach would be fine if there wasn't so little all and so much nothing.

 

[KirbyDome89]

36 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I still don't understand what you mean by "willing to tolerate," but reasonable minds can disagree. Here's my breakdown of the guys on the 40 man:

Jeffers: K% up from last year, but down significantly from 2021 when he had nearly twice as many PAs. Having best year since his 62 PA rookie year in 2020. 
Vazquez: K% up significantly over last 2 years, and up from career norms before that, but not as drastically.
Correa: Up significantly from his career best 2021 season, and slightly up from last year, but pretty much right at where he was from 2018 through 2020.
Farmer: Up significantly.
Gallo: Pretty much right where he was last year. This is who he is.
Julien: Was always a pretty high K rate guy in the minors, but no major league data to go on so no real thoughts here.
Kirilloff: Up slightly from his first 2 partial seasons, but I'm not willing to make any definitive statements on a guy with his injury history and small sample size.
Lewis: Nowhere near enough data for me have an opinion on. I will say that his public statements about doing what's best for him at the plate ("being Arraez") is a point for me in the idea that these guys don't just blindly do what they're told if they don't see results.
Miranda: Down from last year, but not enough data to really speak on him either.
Polanco: We've been over him. He's been hurt the last 2 years, and his 2021 was a rounding error jump. Hard for me to say 1 way or the other on this particular year based on his lack of playing, and being hurt when he did play.
Solano: He's 5 Ks above his rate from last year (has 55 Ks, 50 would put him at 20%), and is an aging, part-time player thrust into everyday playing time (he's 2 games short of his games played from last year already) so I'm not going to say he's a massive spike of any kind.
Castro: Up from last year, but right in line with, or lower than (SSS), the rest of his major league career.
Celestino: Hasn't played
Gordon: Cut his K% in more than half (11.8%) from previous 2 seasons (23.7 and 25.5), but super SSS so no real data there.
Kepler: Significant spike from last year, solid spike from career norms. He's not been good.
Larnach: Right in line with other SSS career norms.
MAT: Significant jump from last 3 years. Has not been good.
Wallner: Cut his K% from last year (39.5) more than in half (16), but super SSS so no real data there. But he's been a K machine his whole minor league career. Pretty much is who he is.
Buxton: Same as last year, but up from 3 seasons before that. Playing hurt, and with his streakiness, and playing time history, I don't read much into him.

So I have 5 guys who I see as having real spikes in there K% this year (Buxton, MAT, Kepler, Farmer, Vazquez).
5 guys I'd say are within a reasonable fluctuation of who we'd expect them to be (Larnach, Castro, Solano, Gallo, Correa)
1 guy who's improved/doing better than we'd expect him (Jeffers)
And 8 guys that have too small, or no, sample size for me to really have an opinion on (Wallner, Gordon, Celestino, Polanco, Miranda, Lewis, Kirilloff, Julien). And they range from drastic improvement (Gordon and Wallner) to big spike (Polanco and Lewis) with the others in between.

Is that good? Nope. But I don't see some clear sign that they're doing anything drastically different in approach than they have since Falvine was hired. Adding Gallo alone is naturally going to spike your overall K%. I just don't think 5 guys having career worst years is crazy. Especially when 4 of those guys weren't great hitters to start with, and aren't exactly young.

I guess define drastic, because that's not a term I've used. 10% bump? 15%? Willing to tolerate means there doesn't seem to be a point (or at least we haven't reached that point) where the juice doesn't justify the squeeze, i.e. Ks seem to be considered a necessary evil. 

We just watched Sano wash out, and this FO goes out and immediately signs.....Joey Gallo, maybe the only other player in baseball capable of matching that kind of extreme profile. The guy has been atrocious for 2.5 months now while 2 actual prospects sit in AAA. If he was truly a make good type contract and not a "we know/are okay with what we signed up for," deal, he'd be gone right? Does Gallo get the same type of leash in 2019 if Larnach and Wallner are in AAA waiting for their shot? 

Buxton, post 2019, has leaned even more into pulling the ball and hitting it in the air. You don't even need to look up percentages to know that though, because you can watch his PAs and see him sell out at bat after at bat. I honestly don't think he's the same type of hitter we watched 5 years ago. Has he recently been sold more on an existing approach, or has the organization started testing the boundaries of extreme and we're seeing the results?

So over half of the regular lineup has seen a real spike. That's all pure talent deficiency? Eh. I didn't say it was crazy, but I think that's more than coincidence or bad luck. 

[chpettit19]

13 minutes ago, Unwinder said:

I don't think that a new coach is going to overhaul the team's hitting philosophy, but some people are good teachers and some people are bad teachers, and maybe a good teacher trying to coach these guys to hit a lot of homers is going to have more success than Popkins. I mean, you can have two Algebra classes teaching from the same exact books and have one class test well, and the other class test poorly because one class has a good teacher and the other class has a bad teacher. I don't think an offense based on sacrificing contact for power is inherently a bad thing, but I don't get the impression that Popkins knows how to equip these guys to do it successfully.

 

Totally possible. None of us really know. All we can go on is what little info we get from the inside. And there were a whole lot of articles about how much the players loved Popkins before this season started. Including one about how much Correa tested him because Popkins had to earn his trust first, but then Correa calls him the best hitting coach he's ever had, or something along those lines if I remember correctly. Gallo has spoken about how getting to work with Popkins was part of the reason he came here.

Does that mean he's a good teacher? Obviously not. But it certainly gives us reason to think that at least some guys really like what he does. From the outside, it does feel like he's very info heavy, though. And I wouldn't question it at all if players suggest they're more or less in paralysis by analysis at the plate too often because they're trying to think of everything he loaded them with before the game.

I don't know who's good and who's bad as hitting coaches. I just know none of them make up for lack of talent.

[chpettit19]

13 minutes ago, KirbyDome89 said:

I guess define drastic, because that's not a term I've used. 10% bump? 15%? Willing to tolerate means there doesn't seem to be a point (or at least we haven't reached that point) where the juice doesn't justify the squeeze, i.e. Ks seem to be considered a necessary evil. 

We just watched Sano wash out, and this FO goes out and immediately signs.....Joey Gallo, maybe the only other player in baseball capable of matching that kind of extreme profile. The guy has been atrocious for 2.5 months now while 2 actual prospects sit in AAA. If he was truly a make good type contract and not a "we know/are okay with what we signed up for," deal, he'd be gone right? Does Gallo get the same type of leash in 2019 if Larnach and Wallner are in AAA waiting for their shot? 

Buxton, post 2019, has leaned even more into pulling the ball and hitting it in the air. You don't even need to look up percentages to know that though, because you can watch his PAs and see him sell out at bat after at bat. I honestly don't think he's the same type of hitter we watched 5 years ago. Has he recently been sold more on an existing approach, or has the organization started testing the boundaries of extreme and we're seeing the results?

So over half of the regular lineup has seen a real spike. That's all pure talent deficiency? Eh. I didn't say it was crazy, but I think that's more than coincidence or bad luck. 

They've been quite open about the fact that they expected to have high K numbers this year. They've also been very open about the fact that they weren't expecting this high of K numbers, and that you can't sustain this kind of K rate without massive power. 

No, I don't think they'd just eat 11 mil on Gallo. 

Buxton openly admits that he does his own thing while hitting. I just don't buy the arguments you're making on him. He's been very open about how he's made his own decisions on his swing, approach, everything. And even if we say that's all the Twins, fine, that's 1 guy. Kepler's pull% has gone down since 2019, should we use him as proof that they're not going heavier into pulling the ball?

This shows my point really well, "over half of the regular lineup." MAT and Farmer weren't supposed to be "regular lineup" guys, and Vazquez is only a 60% of the time guy. So, yeah, putting 2 platoon bats in the lineup everyday instead of just platooning them is absolutely a talent deficiency to me. And 5 other guys aren't seeing any real change at all in their K%. Why does that mean less than the 5 who've spiked? Add in the improvement from Jeffers and more guys aren't having any significant change at all compared to 5 guys who have.

Nobody has been able to explain what drastic approach change they've made. They've always preached turn and burn. Pull the ball and elevate early and often. It's always been their thing. They've always been ok risking Ks for power. This year they just haven't been good at actually getting the power while the Ks have spiked. That's not an approach change, to me, that's just a performance change. But I think we've hit an impasse. Thanks for the back and forth!

[Unwinder]

3 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Totally possible. None of us really know. All we can go on is what little info we get from the inside. And there were a whole lot of articles about how much the players loved Popkins before this season started. Including one about how much Correa tested him because Popkins had to earn his trust first, but then Correa calls him the best hitting coach he's ever had, or something along those lines if I remember correctly. Gallo has spoken about how getting to work with Popkins was part of the reason he came here.

Does that mean he's a good teacher? Obviously not. But it certainly gives us reason to think that at least some guys really like what he does. From the outside, it does feel like he's very info heavy, though. And I wouldn't question it at all if players suggest they're more or less in paralysis by analysis at the plate too often because they're trying to think of everything he loaded them with before the game.

I don't know who's good and who's bad as hitting coaches. I just know none of them make up for lack of talent.

My impression of Popkins is that he has a lot of knowledge and a lot of information (which is something Correa admires) but has been unable to turn it into results. Just spitballing here, but if the players like him so much, maybe the answer isn't to fire him so much as to pair him up with an assistant who knows how to apply that knowledge in a way that helps these guys hit baseballs.

[chpettit19]

2 minutes ago, Unwinder said:

My impression of Popkins is that he has a lot of knowledge and a lot of information (which is something Correa admires) but has been unable to turn it into results. Just spitballing here, but if the players like him so much, maybe the answer isn't to fire him so much as to pair him up with an assistant who knows how to apply that knowledge in a way that helps these guys hit baseballs.

Yeah, he seems smart to me. An interesting thing to me is that Rudy Hernandez has been a hitting coach with them since 2014. We don't talk much about him. I don't know what the answer is. I'm fine with them firing the whole group, but I just want it to start with the very top. I don't think anything is fixed without a different approach from the top. And I don't see Falvine being able to adapt well enough to make the changes on their own. But as long as they're in charge they'll bring in guys who specialize in their approach.

[NotAboutWinning]

Sounds like their approach/philosophy hasn't changed... but the game has. The pitch clock doesn't allow much time to process a complex, data-heavy approach. Perhaps they just need to simplify.

[William K Johnson]

On 7/10/2023 at 11:11 AM, nicksaviking said:

Firing Popkins seems like a reasonable move, but where do you get a new hitting coach mid-season? Dipping down to AAA seems like the only logical option.

Nelson Cruz

[Nine of twelve]

13 hours ago, NotAboutWinning said:

Sounds like their approach/philosophy hasn't changed... but the game has. The pitch clock doesn't allow much time to process a complex, data-heavy approach. Perhaps they just need to simplify.

With proper preparation a trained professional should still be able to have good plate appearances.

[Sparky55]

Need a new voice and approach. I think Paul Molitor knows a little about hitting.🤷‍♂️🤔

[specialiststeve]

Terrible approaches day in and day out ... career good hitters not hitting.. It's time.. Molitor until the end of the year and then find a permanent hitting coach that can teach, preach and prepare for guys to understand hitting to all fields and situational hitting. 

[NotAboutWinning]

2 hours ago, Nine of twelve said:

With proper preparation a trained professional should still be able to have good plate appearances.

I agree. Proper preparation being the key here.

[joefish]

On 7/10/2023 at 10:04 AM, nicksaviking said:

Rowson was the hitting coach for the 2019 club and it seems the criticism of the offense now, is that the Twins are trying to play the same style of ball that they did then, but without the ungodly amount of homeruns. I don't see Rowson changing the approach of the batters much.

Also, a few years removed now, I don't think he had as much to do with the team's success as we used to attribute to him. The juiced ball and lineup made explicitly to take advantage of a juiced ball was why they did well. It's not like the Tigers are tearing the cover off of the ball.

Also, I really dislike the idea of bringing back former players and coaches. Look ahead, try new things.

I think we have been trying new things. Rocco's notebook managing. It's not working.