Lessons Learned From the 2022 Trade Deadline

[Mike Sixel]

11 hours ago, Linus said:

The idea was sound they just picked the wrong trade targets. If the FO had any ability to draft and develop pitching they wouldn’t have had to do those deals. That’s where the real problem lies. 

Ryan, Ober, Varland all developed here..... You need time and lots of pitchers. , 

[Schmoeman5]

When I first heard about Arreaz being traded, my wife told me about it. Her words were "for some pitcher from Miami" I immediately thought Alcantra. When I found out it was Lopez I thought the Twins got fleeced. The Twins were never completely enamored with Arreaz.  Even before last season there was talk of moving him. All he could do was hit. Saw plenty of posts proclaiming the same thing. .300 singles hitter. Defensive liability. But now that Arreaz is hitting closer to .400 and Lopez is a .500 pitcher which is exactly what he was in Miami. But looking at it now; Alcantra is not dominating either. I think the Lopez trade could still work out. At times he looks dominant. And he aways seems to have that 30+ pitch inning that seems to side track him. And even though batting leaders aren't grown on trees I believe the trade can still be a win for the Twins. I admit I still cringe every time I look at the Marlins box score. And if he hits .400. The FO will never hear the end of it.

[Schmoeman5]

17 minutes ago, Schmoeman5 said:

When I first heard about Arreaz being traded, my wife told me about it. Her words were "for some pitcher from Miami" I immediately thought Alcantra. When I found out it was Lopez I thought the Twins got fleeced. The Twins were never completely enamored with Arreaz.  Even before last season there was talk of moving him. All he could do was hit. Saw plenty of posts proclaiming the same thing. .300 singles hitter. Defensive liability. But now that Arreaz is hitting closer to .400 and Lopez is a .500 pitcher which is exactly what he was in Miami. But looking at it now; Alcantra is not dominating either. I think the Lopez trade could still work out. At times he looks dominant. And he aways seems to have that 30+ pitch inning that seems to side track him. And even though batting leaders aren't grown on trees I believe the trade can still be a win for the Twins. I admit I still cringe every time I look at the Marlins box score. And if he hits .400. The FO will never hear the end of it.

And I realize it wasn't at the trade deadline.  

[In My La Z boy]

1 hour ago, Schmoeman5 said:

And I realize it wasn't at the trade deadline.  

For whatever reason (Jorge Polanco) the front office would NOT give Arraez an everyday position, and by default planted him at 1B. Then we give Cincy Steer, again because of our unwillingness to move on from Polanco. For whatever reason this front office is determined to "save" 2B for Jorge as they are RF for Kepler, and neither one has come close to repeating 2019 - and both were/are blocking better players and/or prospects. I am not down on the Correa signing, and rather like having 3 world series champions on our roster along w/Vazquez and Gallo. Correa will be fine in my opinion and will prove his value in Sept/Oct. 

[SwainZag]

2 hours ago, In My La Z boy said:

For whatever reason (Jorge Polanco) the front office would NOT give Arraez an everyday position, and by default planted him at 1B. Then we give Cincy Steer, again because of our unwillingness to move on from Polanco. For whatever reason this front office is determined to "save" 2B for Jorge as they are RF for Kepler, and neither one has come close to repeating 2019 - and both were/are blocking better players and/or prospects. I am not down on the Correa signing, and rather like having 3 world series champions on our roster along w/Vazquez and Gallo. Correa will be fine in my opinion and will prove his value in Sept/Oct. 

When healthy Polanco is one of the better hitting 2nd baseman in baseball.  He's also only 29 this year.  Jorge had a giant year in 2021 and was injury plagued most of 2022...and not to mention he is under team control thru 2025.  I think the unwillingness to give up on that player is pretty damn warranted.  Yes, Jorge hasn't been spectacular to start this season, but that is generally a player you build around.

Spencer Steer is not a 2nd baseman.  He is destined to be a 1B/DH.  It didn't take Cincy very long to learn that he wasn't an adequate 3rd baseman.  If he was supplanting anyone on the roster, it would Kiriloff....and I don't think many would be a fan of that.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

6 hours ago, John Belinski said:

Our front office has made some trades that certainly did not work out, but it appears the signing of Correa was their worst move. Just do not understand why our front office decided to sign him when 2 other teams decided, after medical reports, to not sign him. I do think Rocco wanted Correa, but that should not have been a good reason to sign him. Those 2 teams now are happy they did not sign Correa and the Twins have him for 6 more years batting in the 3 spot with a .200 average. Everyday this looks worse and worse. As a Twin's fan I can only hope Correa starts hitting, but he looks lost at the plate.

It certainly doesn't appear that the medical reports are the likely reason for Correa's offensive struggles, so I don't think that it is a reasonable assertion to make.   It also seems extremely unlikely that the a third of a season is a reasonable basis with which to judge a six year contract.  He has a track record.  He will figure it out.  That doesn't mean it isn't and won't be frustrating at times, but he is still very likely to be a cornerstone player for this team. 

[Wizard11]

I love the revisionist history.  Last year after the J López and Mahle trades these pages were full of praise for the FO.  “We got a second closer for nothing…the guys we gave Baltimore were garbage.  Mahle will probably be our best starter Spencer Steer will never hit enough to be more than a utility player, CES has no position and won’t hit enough to be a MLB DH….blah, blah, blah.”  

Where were all of the searing criticisms at the time of these trades?  The ever shifting narratives regarding the FO are ludicrous.  

Given all the vitriol I would love to hear from the keyboard warriors who exactly they think should be running our FO?  If you hate the FO then who would you prefer be in charge?  I am calling you out here.  I would really like to get back to reading insightful commentary from knowledgeable fans without an agenda.  

[Dave Borton]

Quote

 ....that’s the price the devil extracts when you don’t plan your bullpen well. 

One "like" just for the delightful metaphor. That and the "monkey's paw."

[KirbyDome89]

5 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Ryan, Ober, Varland all developed here..... You need time and lots of pitchers. , 

Does throwing 9 innings in AAA really count as being developed here?

They've had time, and the results have been less than stellar to this point. 

[bird]

7 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

I have examined how the top producing players were acquired for almost every playoff team in the past 15 years.  Trading for prospects or MLB players that have not yet become established is overwhelming more important than trading for established players, especially for teams that are not top 10 in revenue.  I would agree with your approach in general but I definitely would not make it a steadfast rule.

Taking advantage of selling like the Tampa, Oakland, Cleveland, and more recently Baltimore, can create a very deep pool of prospects.  The Twins were very deep in good but not great prospects.  They would have lost some players they wanted to keep had they not traded away several prospects.  There are times when that pool of assets can and should be used to bolster the current roster.  
 

Yeah, I agree that "surplus" prospects should be advantageously traded, but I'd try to make those trades in the off-season rather than at the trade deadline where the trading partner holds the leverage as the "seller". It rarely happens, and I don't know why, but when a team's system becomes top-heavy with Rule 5 risks and a lack of room on the 40-man roster, why would it not make sense to find a trading partner that needs prospects that are close to MLB-ready in exchange for low-minor prospects? The further from the majors a prospect is, the bigger the discount due to that distance, meaning at least theoretically the low minor guys should have a talent edge over those AAA and AA guys.

[bird]

6 hours ago, John Belinski said:

I just read about a former Twin hitting almost .400 so far this year. I wonder what the Twins record would be if he was still a Twin and the .500 pitcher we got was not on the team. Hitters that can hit .400 are very hard to find, but pitchers with a .500 record are everywhere. When the trade was made our front office said it was a win-win trade. It was really a win for the other team and the Twins were the loser.  After looking at this trade and the signing of Correa it is hard to have much faith in our front office.  Trading a good everyday player for a player that plays every 5 days just doesn't make sense.

It's certainly understandable to dislike the Arraez trade, but I think you're possibly being too harsh on Lopez, and it's a bit premature to close the case on this trade. For one, Lopez has made 12 starts and pitched 71 innings so far, and that has value in and of itself. Moreover, Salas is ranked #12 among Twins prospects by Fangraphs and Chourio #23, with 45FV and 40 FV respectively.

[Mike Sixel]

43 minutes ago, KirbyDome89 said:

Does throwing 9 innings in AAA really count as being developed here?

They've had time, and the results have been less than stellar to this point. 

Was Ryan a number2 when the Rays traded him? If so, they made a huge blunder. 

[Mike Sixel]

36 minutes ago, bird said:

Yeah, I agree that "surplus" prospects should be advantageously traded, but I'd try to make those trades in the off-season rather than at the trade deadline where the trading partner holds the leverage as the "seller". It rarely happens, and I don't know why, but when a team's system becomes top-heavy with Rule 5 risks and a lack of room on the 40-man roster, why would it not make sense to find a trading partner that needs prospects that are close to MLB-ready in exchange for low-minor prospects? The further from the majors a prospect is, the bigger the discount due to that distance, meaning at least theoretically the low minor guys should have a talent edge over those AAA and AA guys.

Are you arguing for not adding at the deadline, when the team is in contention? 

[KirbyDome89]

4 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Was Ryan a number2 when the Rays traded him? If so, they made a huge blunder. 

He wasn't last year, and it's June 6th, so Idk...

The Rays felt Ryan was expendable, and clearly the trade was a mistake, but that doesn't mean MN has unlocked something. 

[Blyleven2011]

8 hours ago, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

I tend to agree about Correa, but disagree about the everyday player being traded for a good pitcher not making sense. Sometimes it does make sense. However, in this case I think people were overappraising Lopez and underestimating Arraez, I definitely agree with that. We see the front office do a move, and we want the move to work out, obviously, and we try to make sense of it, so we call Lopez a borderline ace, we call Salas a top prospect, and we call Arraez a huge risk with bad knees not likely to continue hitting, and we say we are selling high on him, even though I don’t think most people really believed that. 

In general terms, trading a middle infielder for a starting pitcher can be a good thing to do, if the right players are involved.

but anyway.

I for one was not in favor of trading arraez for Lopez  ...

I don't mind the Lopez trade but if your going to trade a proven everyday player I would have chosen someone else or a surplus of some prospects  , I know Miami wanted hitters , we have a surplus of prospects  hitters with no apparent position , also larnach  and Kepler  should have been offered and that should have gotten that done or they shouldn't have been so hasty to trade last years 3rd baseman urshela who was a good hitter , we traded him for a prospect that can't help us now , urshela could have brought back immediate help with Lopez trade along with Larnach and Kepler ...

just my thoughts  ... 

[Rod Carews Birthday]

It sounds like some of us are eager to blame and unwilling to credit the Twins for anything and everything.  If you are going to slam a trade, great.  That’s your right.  But the reality is that the team got to a position where they are contenders while many teams are not.  They have made trades that have worked out and ones that haven’t, but it doesn’t seem reasonable to question their motives or intelligence based on cherry-picked information long after the fact. I may be be wrong, but I was under the impression that TD was a place for some intelligent dialogue (and even disagreement) and not just drive a drive by. A deeper dive would consider more factors than the quick surface view.  For the people who don’t like that, perhaps a new team or a new sport to root for might be in order.  

[bird]

2 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Are you arguing for not adding at the deadline, when the team is in contention? 

I know that's a contrarian position, but yes, for the most part.

[tony&rodney]

4 hours ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

It sounds like some of us are eager to blame and unwilling to credit the Twins for anything and everything.  If you are going to slam a trade, great.  That’s your right.  But the reality is that the team got to a position where they are contenders while many teams are not.  They have made trades that have worked out and ones that haven’t, but it doesn’t seem reasonable to question their motives or intelligence based on cherry-picked information long after the fact. I may be be wrong, but I was under the impression that TD was a place for some intelligent dialogue (and even disagreement) and not just drive a drive by. A deeper dive would consider more factors than the quick surface view.  For the people who don’t like that, perhaps a new team or a new sport to root for might be in order.  

Agree with the post above

The comments (Arraez, Steer, et al) are 20/20 revisionist that is "half an inch of water and you think your'e going to drown."

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

8 hours ago, Wizard11 said:

I love the revisionist history.  Last year after the J López and Mahle trades these pages were full of praise for the FO.  “We got a second closer for nothing…the guys we gave Baltimore were garbage.  Mahle will probably be our best starter Spencer Steer will never hit enough to be more than a utility player, CES has no position and won’t hit enough to be a MLB DH….blah, blah, blah.”  

Where were all of the searing criticisms at the time of these trades?  The ever shifting narratives regarding the FO are ludicrous.  

Given all the vitriol I would love to hear from the keyboard warriors who exactly they think should be running our FO?  If you hate the FO then who would you prefer be in charge?  I am calling you out here.  I would really like to get back to reading insightful commentary from knowledgeable fans without an agenda.  

You can use your google searching skills to find plenty of criticism here of these trades at the time the trades were made. If you want to read insightful commentary, be an insightful discussion partner! 

As far as who should be running this front office? Yeah, someone else, if you ask me. My narrative hasn't shifted on that in years. None of us know the names of potential candidates any more than Joe Pohlad knows the names of potential candidates, but with a little bit of time and work, we could get up to speed. I'd be interested to know who else were the candidates in 2016.

 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

1 hour ago, tony&rodney said:

The comments (Arraez, Steer, et al) are 20/20 revisionist that is "half an inch of water and you think your'e going to drown."

I had no opinion of Mahle-Steer-CES, and I did not like the Arraez trade. I thought it was giving up way too much offense. I'm not ready to revise that judgment. 

[rv78]

The Arraez trade for PLopez is another questionable move. Yes an everyday player for one that plays every 5 days makes it questionable to start with. Then take into consideration that it is one of the best hitters in the game for a slightly better than average pitcher, who also has some past injury history. Again, the FO ignores injuries. The weak knees of Arraez was just an excuse and an attempt at justification by many to move him. Again, the FO ignores injuries. The fact that they acquired Gallo and had Kirilloff coming back, both to play 1B, Polanco/Farmer/Julien at 2B and Miranda/Farmer/Lewis for 3B made Arraez expendable in their eyes. Add in the fact that the FO probably knew of the plan or it was their plan to use Buxton exclusively at DH and it made trading Arraez even easier since he was left without a spot in the lineup. Funny how an organization can work themselves out of keeping a batting champion. 

[rv78]

I will add one more thing............

Last year on June 7 the Twins were 32-25. This year they are 31-30. There are a few variables to consider, especially the fact that the schedule of teams being played is quite different but...... isn't it the job of the FO to make the the team better than what it was? Maybe we being sold to believe that this is a playoff caliber team when it is really just a team in transition from veterans who just can't get the job done to a new set of hyped up youngsters still learning how to play the game? I think it is the latter.

[In My La Z boy]

18 hours ago, SwainZag said:

When healthy Polanco is one of the better hitting 2nd baseman in baseball.  He's also only 29 this year.  Jorge had a giant year in 2021 and was injury plagued most of 2022...and not to mention he is under team control thru 2025.  I think the unwillingness to give up on that player is pretty damn warranted.  Yes, Jorge hasn't been spectacular to start this season, but that is generally a player you build around.

Spencer Steer is not a 2nd baseman.  He is destined to be a 1B/DH.  It didn't take Cincy very long to learn that he wasn't an adequate 3rd baseman.  If he was supplanting anyone on the roster, it would Kiriloff....and I don't think many would be a fan of that.

We have the very best pitching staff I can remember and we can't hit. I want to score some runs. I am with Rod Carew and am saddened we couldn't find a position for Arraez and didn't keep him. I also felt like Steer could have given us some pop. He, to me is Dozier like, scrappy guy w/power. I understand grading trades after the fact is easy, but was never a Mahle fan. I do agree with your comments and love Jorge - he just hasn't (for all reasons you mentioned) given us anything for 3 years.