Trust the Stuff: Griffin Jax's Peripherals Suggest He Could Be a Top Gun in the Bullpen

[Lou Hennessy]

The Twins got the Top Gun out of Air Force Academy when they selected Griffin Jax in the third round of the 2016 MLB draft. Since then, his career has taken some evasive action, including a move to full-time relief duties. His stuff is there, he’s trusted by his manager and he’s in the prime of his career. What’s next for Captain Jax?

Image courtesy of Baseball Savant

From becoming the first player out of Air Force Academy in MLB history, to debuting as a mid-level starting pitcher prospect in 2021, to locking down high-leverage situations out of the Twins’ bullpen, Griffin Jax has gone through more turns than an F-22 Raptor aircraft. Now, manager Rocco Baldelli has entrusted him to be a late-inning, shutdown relief weapon. 

If you were to only look at his ERA as the true indicator of his value, you’d be somewhat underwhelmed by his results this year. But if you look at nearly any other figure in his stat line, it’s clear that Jax has the stuff to be a Top Gun in the Twins’ bullpen for the foreseeable future. 

Let’s be perfectly clear, nobody should be making any declarations about a 28-year-old pitcher based on a good-not-great ERA after the first month of a season. His 3.86 ERA would be totally welcome, if not celebrated by virtually every ball club. But some Twins fans aren’t quite as sold on Jax, and a lot of that probably stems from the three lone blemishes on his game log. 

He’s only given up earned runs in four of his 15 appearances, but the modest level of competition in that quad of games seemed to magnify their relevance. He coughed up two earned runs to the Miami Marlins in the first week of the season, gave up two runs to the Washington Nationals on April 21st, was responsible for the game-tying run in the lone loss to the Kansas City Royals last Saturday, and gave up the go-ahead run in Wednesday's loss to the Chicago White Sox. Those are four teams that are now projected to be well-below average when all is said and done in 2023, which unjustly caused many raised eyebrows when Jax didn’t mow them down. 

 

But even the best relievers give up runs every now and then, sometimes due to just having an off-day and sometimes it’s just bad luck. For Jax this year, the argument can be made that it’s mostly been the latter. His strikeouts are as high as they’ve ever been (10.4 K/9), his walk rate is the lowest of his career (5.7%) and he is among the best in the league when it comes to inducing soft contact. Just look at all of the stellar marks in his Baseball Savant profile. 

Not only are his batted-ball numbers quite strong, even elite in some regards, but they suggest that the hits he’s given up in his hiccup games are softer than they came across in the box score. Perhaps his performance is better represented by his Fielding Independent Pitching, which is worlds better than his ERA (1.75 FIP). His .257 Batting Average of Balls In Play (BABIP) is dead-on when compared to his career rate, and his opponents’ lack of ability to land a hit off of him is laughable (.180 batting average against).

So when teams like the Nationals or the Royals score off of him in highly-improbable ways, it’s hard to knock the guy. Maybe it’s bad luck, maybe Jax broke the unwritten law that a righty reliever should never throw two changeups in a row to a right-handed hitter, or maybe we’re talking about a comically small sample size. Either way, Jax doesn’t deserve much haste when looking at his season to this point. If he can keep playing to his strengths, his modest surface numbers will catch up to his peripherals.

Notably, his strengths are plentiful. Jax has been lethal against left-handed hitters (.083 on-base percentage, best in MLB according to Inside Edge), opponents have a 38% chase rate against him (15th-best in MLB) and he’s allowed just a .105 slugging percentage on his slider (7th-best). 

So there’s plenty to like with the former Air Force Academy Falcon, and the light turbulence that fans have experienced is worth it in the grand scheme of things. If he stays on the flight plan that he’s currently using, projections suggest Jax could be as successful as a Tom Cruise blockbuster. 

What do you think? Is Jax bound for a breakout? What do you think he needs to do to be the Top Gun in the Twins’ bullpen? Let us know your thoughts in the comment section below. 

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[Trov]

I have no concerns when Jax comes in.  Every pitcher will have a bad outing, so even his couple do not worry me.  I think our back end of pen can be very strong this year.  I would prefer one more lefty to upgrade for end of pen, or to use in addition to who we have, but we have 3 strong RH options including Jax. 

[LonelyseatinMOA]

I am very confident in him and his few bad outings don't worry me 

[Rosterman]

Solid right-handed setup man.

But DON'T start him in the 10th with a man on second. He will give up a hit an inning.

[TwinsDr2021]

Jax is what he is, a really good relief pitcher that averages giving up a run every 4 outings.

[ashbury]

I've never had high expectations, and every time I start to believe, he looks pretty hittable.  Maybe he can take one further step to improve consistency from game to game, and thereby achieve his ceiling.  Until then, I think of him as just another guy in the bullpen, nowhere close to a top gun or elite arm.

[Drew]

2 hours ago, Rosterman said:

He will give up a hit an inning.

Best as I can tell he's given up a hit in 6 of his 14 innings this year. 

[USAFChief]

"Top gun" is a Navy thing.

 

And to my untrained eye, Jax hasn't looked real good this year.

 

 

[jkcarew]

Small sample…maybe anecdotal is the right term…seems to me that he’s been hurt in a couple of key situations by throwing the same pitch (sweeper),…without exaggeration…5-6 times consecutively during an at-bat. It’s a nice pitch. It’s not THAT good. Not yet anyway.

[Lou Hennessy]

3 hours ago, USAFChief said:

"Top gun" is a Navy thing.

 

And to my untrained eye, Jax hasn't looked real good this year.

 

 

Oops! Missed the mark on that one. My mistake. 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

3 hours ago, jkcarew said:

Small sample…maybe anecdotal is the right term…seems to me that he’s been hurt in a couple of key situations by throwing the same pitch (sweeper),…without exaggeration…5-6 times consecutively during an at-bat. It’s a nice pitch. It’s not THAT good. Not yet anyway.

Yes, Jax throws a very, very high rate of sliders. He has a good one but the league is going to figure it out sooner or later. Let’s hope the last half dozen appearances aren’t the start of that trend already. With relievers, we are dealing with inherently small samples, more so early in the season. I’d also like to read more about his pitch mix and movement. 

Jax has a great story and it was not a smooth transition to baseball. I think they left him unprotected in the Rule 5 too, but could be misremembering. Easy guy to root for. 

[Doctor Wu]

Good article, Thanks for that. I've always been intrigued by Jax and his potential, especially now that he's firmly in the bullpen. He seems like a very bright young man who has worked hard to maximize his talent. Hope he can take it to the next level. 

[wabene]

9 hours ago, Lou Hennessy said:

Oops! Missed the mark on that one. My mistake. 

Still a funny article. I'm not sure being fuzzy on the details of something involving Tom Cruise is a bad thing. 

[Whitey333]

I would say Jax has done well and is a solid bullpen arm.  Peripherals and analytics do not make the pitcher great.  Only the pitcher does that.  Look at Pagan.  They keep saying his stuff is great but yet Rocco is very hesitant to use him