Can Jorge López Rediscover His First-Half Success?

[Lou Hennessy]

The Twins made a much-needed trade for an all-star reliever at last year’s deadline, but what they got fell short of expectations. Can Jorge López rediscover what made him so successful in the first half of last year?

Image courtesy of Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports

In late-July of last year, the Twins were still grasping to a small division lead, with more holes seemingly appearing by the day. One of the biggest gaps in their roster at the time fell between superstar relief ace Jhoan Duran – and pretty much anyone else in their relief corps. Sure, Griffin Jax had built some trust equity from the skipper, as did Caleb Thielbar. They weren’t all-star caliber players, but they could be trusted to pass the baton in a relay that led to Duran. 

The team then went out and made a trade for the star-level arm that was desperately needed to help bridge the gap. 
Enter Jorge López. 

The former Baltimore Oriole was having a career-year when the Twins acquired him in exchange for pitching prospects Cade Povich and Yennier Cano. He had a fantastic 1.68 ERA with a 27.6% strikeout rate and a 60% ground ball rate, leading to his first all star nod. His fastballs ran hot, with an average of 97.4 MPH for his four-seamer and 98 MPH on his preferred sinker, and he paired them with a slew of secondary offerings that have carried over from his time as a starting pitcher. His curveball, in particular, was a real weapon, with his slider and changeup serving as additional tricks up his sleeve. 
So Lopez had big strikeout numbers, got plenty of ground ball outs, and had two and a half years of club control at the time of the trade. What’s not to like?

While he wasn’t a train wreck with his new team, Lopez’s first two months as a Twin were disappointing based on the expectations that were set when the team acquired him. In that time, he had a 4.37 ERA across 23 innings pitched, due in large part to a walk rate (13.7%) that nearly eclipsed his strikeout percentage (17.6%).

Lopez’s sinker was his bread and butter in the first few months of the season, but its success trailed off considerably once the calendar flipped to July. In the first three months of the 2022 campaign, he allowed just 11 hits on that offering, but in the second half that figure nearly doubled to 20 (six of which went for extra bases). This pitch wasn’t just his most used offering, but it was a notable choice when deciding what to use as a “put away” pitch – or what he used in an effort to get a strikeout once he got to two strikes in the count. That rate for his sinker went from about 16.5% in April and May, all the way up to 29.6% in June and July, but then it plummeted to just 4.5% by the time September rolled around. 

That’s a big kick to his confidence in his best pitch. 

That "put away" pitch selection is vital to Lopez’s end results because he’s one of the best at getting to that point when facing opposing hitters, especially those that are right-handed. Last year, he was able to get at least two strikes in the first three pitches against 73% of the right-handed hitters that he faced, according to Inside Edge. Obviously that can be a huge advantage in the grand scheme of things, and indeed it was for the first half of last season when he had a 28.7% strikeout rate. But for whatever reason -- whether it was trying a different pitch mix, or his sinker lost some zip, or he wasn’t locating his pitches as well, or hitters were merely catching up to him -- he was unable to tap into that put away stuff in the second half. 

That could come across as a grim outlook going forward. Baseball fans suffer from perpetual recency bias, and Lopez’s most recent month of work was uninspiring. However, the Twins don’t need him to be the monster that he was for Baltimore in the first few months of last season. They just need him to be in the same mix as Jax and Thielbar, which is probably somewhere between the two poles that Lopez set last season. The Twins need him to be in that group of guys that can be trusted in a relay that leads to Duran taking on the highest-leverage situations at or near the end of the game. 

But what do you think? Can Jorge Lopez regain some of his value that the team had in mind when they traded for him? Or did the club get duped into buying-high on an inconsistent arm? Let us know your thoughts and expectations in the comments below. 

View full article

[rwilfong86]

You completely missed the human element part of the Jorge Lopez story, which I have mentioned in numerous posts on this site.

[JD-TWINS]

Duped!

His career ERA is over 6-7 years of service & is over 5.00. That’s a pretty good view of who he is. 

Why would Baltimore trade a guy with his pitch mix & velocity that was headed to an All-Star game with 2 additional years of control?

I’ve typed this here before, I think his problem is between his ears. I think Baltimore realized that……the Twins beat him up twice in July before trading for him. How do you get ahead 1-2 76% of the time and have a high walk rate & low strikeout rate??? No guts/aggression! He was great through June & started a slide in July. Baltimore noticed - & they are cheap, so they sold high!

He seems to lose command/location & gets pounded after being ahead in counts…….very similar to Pagan. Obviously, hoping for the best for these 2 guys but I don’t know if they will ever have the make-up to make big pitches in key situations.

I’d take 3.85 ERA’s if they only pitch if it’s 5th, 6th, or 7th innings ……..or we’re behind. At least they’d be eating innings.

[saviking]

Nobody knows ... Will be interesting to find out. I know when I watch him he has good stuff. But then, so does Pagan ..

[Althebum82]

I am by nature cynical and tend to look at his history and think last year was an anomoly.  But then I remember LaTroy Hawkins and all of the seasons the Twins wasted trying to make him a starter.  Even though Cano is getting off to a rough start at the MLB level, I think this was a perfect trade for both teams and I expect Lopez to continue his success as a reliever at least through his current contract (if not longer).  

[Dman]

I am worried about Lopez as we paid a high price to get him IMO.  The price paid wasn't for an average reliver it was supposed to be for a high leverage arm.  Still he was a bit unlucky with the Twins as I saw a fair number of slow rollers go for base hits.  He had guys beating it into the ground at times and still managing to get on base.

That being said he also gave up a lot of hard contact with the Twins as well.  I don't know what the issues were or are but this pen is built with him in mind as a high leverage reliever.  We need him to be the guy we think he was and he should have the pitches to be that guy.  Haven't seen him much this spring but hoping he returns to all star form as we are going to need him to be successful.

[TopGunn#22]

Lopez to me, is the key member of our bullpen.  If he's 90% of what he was with Baltimore in the first half last year we have a solid formula to get Duran in the highest leverage situations with someone we can have high confidence will close out the game.  The assessment that he needs to be at least a Jax/Theilbar level is good.  For me, that would be the floor.  He has great stuff, there's no question about that.  Wilfong has indeed written often about the personal anguish Lopez was going through as his family was suffering greatly after a natural disaster.  If Lopez is more like the second half performer, Rocco will be scrambling all year to have some semblance of a formula he can have confidence in.  We should certainly get more innings and better production out of our starting rotation.  But as Twins fans, we've seen the bullpen let us down time and time again.  I think Lopez can bounce back.

[Shaitan]

I just came here to say those are the ugliest baseball uniforms I've ever seen.

Even worse than the camo Padres.

[Joey Self]

I frequently start notes like this with: I know the ones that decided to make this trade know more about baseball in general and their team in particular than I ever will. 

That said, I didn't like this deal last year, and I still don't.  Players can certainly improve, but many tend to regress to the mean after they have been in the big leagues for awhile.  I thought Cano was still on the upswing, and Lopez had just caught lightning in a bottle for half a year. 

And THAT said, I did appreciate that the front office was trying to win last year when it made this move; maybe they saw something in Lopez that my untrained eye couldn't, and maybe his mean will be better than what we saw in August and September.  I was at the last game of the 5 games set in Cleveland in September, and he looked as lost as a goose on the mound.  This line surprised me, because I didn't think he got two outs: 

IP   H  R  ER BB K

0.2 4  4   4   2  0 

It was so bad, Palacios had to finish it up. 

Yeah, I know, small sample size, everyone gets lit up now and then, etc.  But it looked horrible in person. 

JcS

EDIT: I just looked at his last five appearances, and it looked like 5 scoreless innings, with 1 hit.  THAT may be what attracted the FO to trade for him. 

[rwilfong86]

9 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

I’ve typed this here before, I think his problem is between his ears.

I think his issue is mental, he has incredible stuff but I think going into 2023 knowing he is coming out of the pen, after having an off-season with the team and their system, and the chemistry he has developed with the other players will be a major boost to his confidence.

[DocBauer]

His numbers with Baltimore are just virtually impossible to sustain. But his numbers with the Twins, even in SSS, were a marked difference. 

Personally, I seldom pay any attention to what a converted pitcher did previously as a starter. It's a very different mindset. Most all good to great RP began as a SP and either failed or were mediocre, average at best. Twins history alone has seen this with Guardado, Tremblay, Aguilera, just off the top of my head. Former Twin Henricks comes to mind, along with current Twins stud Duran. 

He took all of his stuff and potential and was converted to a reliever with amazing results. Mid conversion year he packs up to a new team/city while dealing with deep personal issues. This is now a fresh start, a new season, and he's already made the conversion. Time will tell. And the Twins don't need him to put up the unbelievable numbers he had with the Orioles to be damn good still. The stuff is there. If his head is right, he's going to be very, very good at 85-90% of what he looked like pre-trade. And I'm happy as can be if that happens. So yes, no reason he can't be what we and the Twins thought he could be.

Now, crap happens. And it could happen again. All the more reason I wish they had dumped Pagan and his $3.5M deal and added a little more for someone to add to the pen we could have some faith in. But I also see no reason that Lopez can't be what we hope he can be at this point.

[rwilfong86]

12 hours ago, DocBauer said:

His numbers with Baltimore are just virtually impossible to sustain. But his numbers with the Twins, even in SSS, were a marked difference. 

Personally, I seldom pay any attention to what a converted pitcher did previously as a starter. It's a very different mindset. Most all good to great RP began as a SP and either failed or were mediocre, average at best. Twins history alone has seen this with Guardado, Tremblay, Aguilera, just off the top of my head. Former Twin Henricks comes to mind, along with current Twins stud Duran. 

He took all of his stuff and potential and was converted to a reliever with amazing results. Mid conversion year he packs up to a new team/city while dealing with deep personal issues. This is now a fresh start, a new season, and he's already made the conversion. Time will tell. And the Twins don't need him to put up the unbelievable numbers he had with the Orioles to be damn good still. The stuff is there. If his head is right, he's going to be very, very good at 85-90% of what he looked like pre-trade. And I'm happy as can be if that happens. So yes, no reason he can't be what we and the Twins thought he could be.

Now, crap happens. And it could happen again. All the more reason I wish they had dumped Pagan and his $3.5M deal and added a little more for someone to add to the pen we could have some faith in. But I also see no reason that Lopez can't be what we hope he can be at this point.

Truer words have not been spoken. Well said.

[jmlease1]

I don't think there's much question that Lopez didn't have his head right during his time with the Twins last season, and that almost certainly impacted him. I don't expect him to be 1st half Balto dude, but if he's the average of the two halves he'll be a quality guy for the back end and I think that's very achievable. The Twin did buy high on him, but there also a real possibility that he can get back to a high level again. Making moves like that in the midseason are going to cost. I liked the aggression at the time and I'm not going to second-guess now because the season unraveled.

It's also important to remember that it doesn't take much to balloon a reliever's stat line, especially in a sample as small as 23 games. As bad as the Cleveland game in Sept looks, he didn't blow the game: we were already down 3, and I like he bounced back after a garbage outing to have 5 straight good ones.