Is Now the Right Time for a Royce Lewis Extension?

[Trov]

Really the question would be does either side want to have that much of a gamble.  I fully expect Lewis to come back, but we only saw a very SSS to judge on.  Even if he is healthy, he could just not become what we hope or even close.  Twins gamble is not only on his health but that he really is MLB guy.  

Lewis would be gambling he becomes a superstar and have bought out one of his top dollar years. Personally, I think the dollars suggested are way too low for Lewis.  One salaries are going up. Two, he is going to be 24 this year, a 7 year deal takes him to 31, and only mega stars will get huge deals by then.  Sure, if he is good to great, he could still get a 4 year deal at that point.  I get it is only 1 year of FA being bought out, but the overall price is low I think.

Maybe if you threw in a lot of incentive based bonuses along the way, like extra mil for All-star game, extra for MVP or other awards.  Personally, I am a huge fan of those types of contracts.  Then players do not feel like they are getting underpaid, but teams are not overpaying if production drops off.  Kind of similar to Buck's contract. 

[TopGunn#22]

This is what smart teams do.  Showing faith and support for Lewis to blossom could reap huge dividends for the Twins.  I think this kid will be a star and look forward to many seasons watching him play for the Twins.  Identify your BEST young players and keep them.    

[TwinsDr2021]

18 minutes ago, TopGunn#22 said:

This is what smart teams do.  Showing faith and support for Lewis to blossom could reap huge dividends for the Twins.  I think this kid will be a star and look forward to many seasons watching him play for the Twins.  Identify your BEST young players and keep them.    

Are there teams that have extended a 24 year old with very limited experience and twice had ACL surgery? I have been looking for extensions for "young players" and haven't seen many at age 24 let alone his injury history. I am sure I have missed players, anybody have a list?

[Nick Nelson]

14 hours ago, sweetmusicviola16 said:

2mil over the next 3 seasons is league minimum, what the team HAS to pay him. But if he performs and is healthy in good faith the team likely gives him a fair raise over that minimum. Same with year 3. Decent players are getting 3 mil in their 3rd seasons. So with your offer of 7mil in those first 3 seasons if he performs well he'd likely gain nothing, or very little. But as you say it is a guarantee.

Come again? Are you saying teams optionally choose to pay $3M to pre-arb players who are slated to make the league minimum salary? That doesn't happen.

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As for his arb seasons, Vlad Guerrero is getting over 14 mil in this his 1st arb season, I believe. So if Lewis is the player that was argued about being the top Twin prospect this year then he should easily make 40mil through arb. 13mil avg. You're offering him less than half.

The 3 FA seasons you offer him 37mil. He'd get in excess of 90-100 mil if he's the player you predict him to be. No way he'd even consider your offer. Unless he knew he was toast because of that knee. He would stand to lose 85mil with your offer, actually worse because losing those 3 FA seasons would knock down his FA contract as an older player. Very likely. I doubt he does become this player, because of that kne. I hope I'm wrong.

Yall are really exaggerating the likelihood of these outcomes. Royce Lewis is not Vlad Jr and he's not Juan Soto. Come on. Him getting $90-100M in his first 3 FA seasons would be an extreme best-case scenario, even if not for the knee injuries. It's incumbent on a player and his agent to be a little more realistic and grounded. 

I'd love to hear all the same arguments here being applied to Michael Harris, btw! There's a reason I used his example in the article. You can't say "No player would ever do this" when we have a pretty comparable example from 6 months ago. By your estimates Harris has probably cost himself tens of millions down the line but there's a give and take with the increased amount he's guaranteeing himself up until then.

[Nick Nelson]

24 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Are there teams that have extended a 24 year old with very limited experience and twice had ACL surgery? I have been looking for extensions for "young players" and haven't seen many at age 24 let alone his injury history. I am sure I have missed players, anybody have a list?

I think they were talking about the general concept as opposed to the specific situation. Show faith in the players you believe in, do right by them, and you'll be rewarded. It's an approach that's legitimately paid dividends for them.

You're right that this scenario is somewhat unique, but the Twins love to talk about getting creative!

[TwinsDr2021]

28 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

This is what smart teams do.

 

2 minutes ago, Nick Nelson said:

I think they were talking about the general concept as opposed to the specific situation.

I hear what you are saying, and I totally get the concept, but I was replying to "this is what smart teams do", and I have looked and haven't seen many teams buying out guys into their early 30's, they generally do it when a guy comes up really young, and want to keep him though his prime years 26-30 at a reduced cost.

My thoughts on this is the same when it was brought up for Ryan, I wouldn't do it, they already have these guys on the cheap for their prime. Only a few players debut at these ages and end up being one of the highest paid players at their position.

[nicksaviking]

I'd do that deal for Miranda. Heck, I'd consider that deal for Edouard Julian or Emmanuel Rodriguez. So I think it's much too light for Lewis.

But, I'd for sure be interested in talking a long term deal with him.

[Fatbat]

The potential earning power of RL if he becomes a star could be written into the contract so his value is paid out  appropriately.  I like the framework of what you have but lacks the incentive $$ that could pay him what he is worth. For example 500PA add $1M .300BA add $1M….. the list of incentives could be long and lucrative. 

[JD-TWINS]

On 2/21/2023 at 6:06 PM, Vanimal46 said:

If Lewis is indeed a star in the making that I’ve been reading on this site for 6 years, this contract proposal is selling himself extremely short of his earning potential. I don’t see why he would entertain this right now. 

I think both sides should wait a year.  His numbers would go up in a year However, $80 million for 9 years probably sounds pretty good to a guy who has been out for most of 2 years with injuries! I like the idea - maybe see him play for 2 or 3 months.

 

 

[joefish]

My uncertainty could be alleviated for much less than millions of dollars. And I wouldn't play this year either.  

Grampa.

[awmonahan]

Waiting this long into his rehab to make an offer could also make it look like you'd happily gouge him pay he intends to earn with great play. I get the idea, but it would have come off as closer to mutually beneficial at the outset of the injury, rather than now. 

[milkytoast]

I think a fair deal would be the one you suggested, but change the two option years to $30 mil. Royce gets security, The Twins get one extra year of control and it gives the Twins an option to retain him, but at a fair market price if he is a star.