Brock Beauchamp’s 2023 Payroll Blueprint

[Brock Beauchamp]

Upside with risk. I don't do a lot but what I do costs a bunch of money.

I retain Correa with a front-loaded contract, starting him at $40m over the next few years.

I sign Rodon. I don't love Rodon but I think he's a gettable name that's better than almost all of the Twins internal options.

I trade Kepler. I know the minimization of the shift might help him in 2023 but I'm done with Max and can no longer expect him to make the necessary changes to improve upon his half-a-dimension approach at the plate and dishing him to another team allows me to keep the payroll in check.

And then I run out a bunch of guys who could tank the season, particularly in the bullpen. But I think the Twins have enough arms to keep the pen afloat until some names emerge as true bullpen candidates. It's a risk but it's the kind of risk I'm willing to take to drastically improve at two key positions.

No more patchwork rosters. Go big, even if it leaves you vulnerable at other positions.

• C: Ryan Jeffers ($0.70M)
• 1B: Luis Arraez ($4.50M)
• 2B: Jorge Polanco ($7.50M)
• 3B: Gio Urshela ($9.00M)
• SS: Carlos Correa ($40.00M)
• LF: Alex Kirilloff ($0.70M)
• CF: Byron Buxton ($15.00M)
• RF: Matt Wallner/Trevor Larnach ($0.70M)
• DH: Jose Miranda ($0.70M)
• 4th OF: Kyle Garlick ($0.70M)
• Utility: Nick Gordon ($0.70M)
• Utility: Gilberto Celestino ($0.70M)
• Backup C: Sandy Leon ($1.00M)
• SP1: Carlos Rodon ($25.00M)
• SP2: Sonny Gray ($9.00M)
• SP3: Tyler Mahle ($8.00M)
• SP4: Joe Ryan ($0.70M)
• SP5: Bailey Ober ($0.70M)
• RP: Jhoan Duran ($0.70M)
• RP: Jorge Lopez ($3.00M)
• RP: Griffin Jax ($0.70M)
• RP: Jorge Alcala ($1.00M)
• RP: Caleb Thielbar ($2.00M)
• RP: Kenta Maeda ($5.00M)
• RP: Josh Winder ($0.70M)
• RP: Ronnie Henriquez ($0.70M)

Payroll is 0.64% under budget

[tarheeltwinsfan]

Brock, I just posted something similar in the Sonny Gray article. I also said: "pay Correa and pay Rodon". I suggested signing Sanchez for 3 years, instead of Leon, whom you suggested. While I really appreciated Leon and his bunts, I feel the Twins need more pop from the second catcher's bat. I understand you were trying to keep under the arbitrary budget, and there are worse options than Leon, but I would just feel more secure with Sanchez. I would have Ryan as SP3 and Mahle as SP4 (a minor difference during the season, but important in the playoffs). I agree 100% on getting rid of Kepler. Trade him for some flame throwing minor league prospect pitchers. Maybe one will pan out in 1-2 years. I also left the relief corps alone, except parting ways with Pagan. I think it is more than adequate with Duran at the tail end, preceded by Lopez, Jax, Alcala, Thielbar, and whoever,  and also with (hopefully) Maeda as a long reliever. I would release/trade Garlic and keep both Wallner and Larnach. I would keep Winder, Varland and SWR at triple A as starters, to be brought up for spot starts when the inevitable injuries occur. I agree 100% with keeping Gio. He was a breath of fresh air. Can this proposed team beat the Astros, Yankees, White Sox and Mariners? Absolutely. 

[Squirrel]

This is almost identical to what I would do with a couple of minor exceptions. I think I might leave Maeda in the starting rotation and move Ober to the BP. I would also go out and sign or trade for another relief pitcher ... not a reclamation project, but a legit, durable, competent relief pitcher ... and leave Henriquez in AAA for depth. But if what you've done is the end result of the off-season? I'd be okay with that, too.

I may also put Martin in as utility and leave Celestino in AAA, depending on what happens in ST. Martin will need some reps in the outfield, although I'd use him primarily in the infield, still, he needs some reps out there. And when Lewis is ready mid-season, depending on how he's performing, he would take over that utility role, or, possibly 3rd base, trading Urshela.

[gunnarthor]

So here's the problem. First, I think this is far more aggressive than anything our FO will do. Second, the main difference between this year and Brock's plan is the expectation of a full healthy season from Malthe and the addition of Rodon. Even if both happen, this still might not be a playoff team. That's how bad our pitching is. I, unfortunately, agree that quantity and hope something sticks is required for this bullpen.

I don't know what else they can do. Essentially, they have to pay their way out of this mess. 

[jorgenswest]

I like the stars and young player mix with the additions of Correa and Rodon. I am not sure Leon is the best 1 million dollar catcher but it might be a spot they cycle through multiple inexpensive catchers. I get that Maeda in the pen saves money and he may actually be more valuable at his bullpen salary than his starter salary.

Did you consider moving in from Urshela and shift that money to that catcher spot or Maeda as a starter or both? Sticking with Urshela might be the way to go here.

 

[TwinsDr2021]

Unless the Twins plan on letting Rodon go further than he ever has and further than they let anybody go I don't see them playing 25 million for a pitcher.

Ryan (147/27) = 5.44 innings

Rodon (178/31) = 5.74

Otherwise I like your team.

[Vanimal46]

Investing in Rodon long term terrifies me. He’s had a laundry list of severe shoulder and elbow injuries throughout his career. In 2021 he was dealing with shoulder fatigue and dead arm, causing him to be ineffective in the final stretch for Chicago. San Francisco rode him to career highs in starts and innings knowing he was opting out and they won’t re-sign him. 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

4 hours ago, jorgenswest said:

I like the stars and young player mix with the additions of Correa and Rodon. I am not sure Leon is the best 1 million dollar catcher but it might be a spot they cycle through multiple inexpensive catchers. I get that Maeda in the pen saves money and he may actually be more valuable at his bullpen salary than his starter salary.

Did you consider moving in from Urshela and shift that money to that catcher spot or Maeda as a starter or both? Sticking with Urshela might be the way to go here.

 

I have been toying w/ putting together another plan that involves moving on from Gio. He Reminds me a lot of Kepler, good fielder, light stick, in a bat-first position, especially post shift ban.

[DocBauer]

OR. the Twins could do this and bump the payroll a simple 5% and have enough to add a solid catcher and pen arm.

With those additions you just about have my dream team for 2023. But I didn't do this for my blueprint idea as I just thought no way we make a pair of big moves like this. But I would love it.

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

21 hours ago, Vanimal46 said:

Investing in Rodon long term terrifies me. He’s had a laundry list of severe shoulder and elbow injuries throughout his career. In 2021 he was dealing with shoulder fatigue and dead arm, causing him to be ineffective in the final stretch for Chicago. San Francisco rode him to career highs in starts and innings knowing he was opting out and they won’t re-sign him. 

Rodon also terrifies me but, as I said, I think he's the most gettable name that is actually really good.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

10 hours ago, DocBauer said:

OR. the Twins could do this and bump the payroll a simple 5% and have enough to add a solid catcher and pen arm.

With those additions you just about have my dream team for 2023. But I didn't do this for my blueprint idea as I just thought no way we make a pair of big moves like this. But I would love it.

 

You can always put up another blueprint, it’s super easy

[beckmt]

I don't feel the Twins will win any bidding wars, which is what Rodon will take.  I am guessing the Yankees up the payroll and game after this year as Cashman feels the heat and Yankee payroll gets close to $300 million and they send some starters on their way and pay for quality. 

[EGFTShaw]

I like this.  But I don't see years for the C4/Rodon contracts.

Maeda could very well earn his way back into the starting rotation if he pitches like he did in the COVID shortened season.

I like Max.  I like Jeffers.  I understand hitting is NOT easy, but to me this is like shooting in basketball.  You will never be a Steph Curry/Ted Williams but you should be able to get to MLB average.

I am a firm believer in bringing your prospects in when your options are veterans who are at or below average.

I would like to see if Thor kicks i back up, (Verlander did), after this season.  But I am tired of retreads that have a history of ceilings that are average.  Draft position does not determine if they have a high ceiling after they have been around the block.

One last thing.  With the injuries, the nagging ones that never went away, it was time to restart the head trainer role.

 

[LewFordLives]

Interesting. I know it's all speculative so need to take it with a grain of salt. However, I can't be on board with any roster where Garlick and Leon may be getting a significant number of at-bats. That's not a recipe for success. Also, there are question marks at every outfield position. That's too scary for me.