Correia: Giving credit where it is due

[DaveW]

Hats off to Correia who once again had a very nice start. I hope he can keep it up (even though I am at about 50% confidence he can end up with a 4.20 ERA and close to 200ip)

[gunnarthor]

Here's hoping. I missed today's game but good to see a nice run from him.

[Riverbrian]

Hats off to Correia who once again had a very nice start. I hope he can keep it up (even though I am at about 50% confidence he can end up with a 4.20 ERA and close to 200ip)

 

Glass Raised... Who knows how the rest of the season goes but after an off season of general upsetness over his signing. I would think Twins Daily can show him some love for this thread at least to make up for it.

[ThePuck]

Correia has done very well. He has a history of doing well in April, so it's good to see him continue that particular trend.

[Guest USAFChief]

He has been better than anyone could have hoped. Not dominating, but he has pitched like a professional and kept the team in games. If he can give you three good games for every stinker, he will have been worth the money. I'll have to see it to believe it, but so far, so good.

[Badsmerf]

[stringer bell]

I didn't see every pitch, but IMHO Correia was sharper in both of his other starts. Almost all of the hits that the Angels got were well-stroked and there were some well-hit outs. He left two batting practice pitches in the middle of the zone to Harris and Bourgos, yielding his first two home runs. He did manage to get a few Ks and only allowed the two solos to cross the plate. I guess he deserved to be luckier after his first two outings.

[ashbury]

If he can give you three good games for every stinker, he will have been worth the money.

 

The going rate for that kind of performance is well above KC's current pay grade. Of course, there is that big "If" in your sentence.

[ThePuck]

In 2012 and 2011, he posted an ERA in April under 3.00. In 2010, it was under 4.00.

 

He starts well....which is very nice...he's done well. I hope he continues, but like everyone else's stats, it's important to remember we're like 2 weeks into the season.

[glunn]

I agree that Correia deserves a lot of credit. I also think that Terry Ryan may deserve some credit for identifying Correia's potential.

[jokin]

In 2012 and 2011, he posted an ERA in April under 3.00. In 2010, it was under 4.00.

 

He starts well....which is very nice...he's done well. I hope he continues, but like everyone else's stats, it's important to remember we're like 2 weeks into the season.

 

In his first full year as a starter, 2008, his best month of the season was also April, when his ERA was 4.50. 09 was the one exception in his 5 year SP run when April wasn't his best month.

 

Got to give credit where credit is due. He's pitching with one part gutsNguile, one part skill and a hefty amount of luck, some hard hit balls turned into outs and DPs tonight. I'll enjoy it as long as it lasts, it sure is fun to see someone out there who appears to know how to pitch within his limitations.

 

Should Correia somehow put in a strong first half to the season, my impossible dream of him becoming attractive trade deadline bait might somehow come to fruition. Hopefully, the AAA/AA SP options keep developing at a fast rate, making the willingness to trade Correia at a high point in his value, a reality- A Big Win-Win for the Twins and Correia- who could go to a contender.

[kab21]

Correia is what he is. He won't be an attractive trade option. It would be a surprise to get any kind of significant prospect for him. The good news is that he's separating himself from the list of simply terrible veteran pitchers that the Twins have brought in over the years. Of course he should since he got a 2 yr deal. I will be very happy if puts up a <4.25 ERA this year. that's what he is.

[Riverbrian]

In 2012 and 2011, he posted an ERA in April under 3.00. In 2010, it was under 4.00.

 

He starts well....which is very nice...he's done well. I hope he continues, but like everyone else's stats, it's important to remember we're like 2 weeks into the season.

 

An even closer look:

 

2011- in his 4th start of the year: Correia walked 4 batters.

2012- in his 4th start of the year: Correia walked 5 batters.

 

2013- 4th start is up next: Trending looks like a lock at 6 walks against Chicago on Saturday.

 

This is an interesting concept... I'm intrigued... I'll start researching it later... player by player... I'm sure I'm gonna find Monthly correlation of all pitchers and playes... results will I'm sure repeat itself from year to year.

 

For Example... Brandon McCarthy I'm sure I'll find that he sucks in April every year. I'll find that Clay Buchholz is lights out every April.

 

This will be a interesting project.

[Brock Beauchamp]

So far, so good. I'm not expecting this to continue but would be pleased as punch if it did.

[Oldgoat_MN]

Correia has indeed been a professional who has given the Twins a chance to win 3 times already.

Good for him and good for us!

 

Go Kevin. Go Twins!

[Mike Sixel]

Happy for him and the team. Would be great if he keeps this up.

[ThePuck]

An even closer look:

 

2011- in his 4th start of the year: Correia walked 4 batters.

2012- in his 4th start of the year: Correia walked 5 batters.

 

2013- 4th start is up next: Trending looks like a lock at 6 walks against Chicago on Saturday.

 

This is an interesting concept... I'm intrigued... I'll start researching it later... player by player... I'm sure I'm gonna find Monthly correlation of all pitchers and players... results will I'm sure repeat itself from year to year.

 

For Example... Brandon McCarthy I'm sure I'll find that he sucks in April every year. I'll find that Clay Buchholz is lights out every April.

 

This will be a interesting project.

 

I'm not exactly sure what point you are trying to make. Is it that you think my info was irrelevant? Not even worth mentioning? What exactly? I mean, you post seems overly sarcastic, but maybe I'm misreading it. Is there something bad about giving this info? Something wrong with giving recent historical info on players?

[ThePuck]

In his first full year as a starter, 2008, his best month of the season was also April, when his ERA was 4.50. 09 was the one exception in his 5 year SP run when April wasn't his best month.

 

Got to give credit where credit is due. He's pitching with one part gutsNguile, one part skill and a hefty amount of luck, some hard hit balls turned into outs and DPs tonight. I'll enjoy it as long as it lasts, it sure is fun to see someone out there who appears to know how to pitch within his limitations.

 

Should Correia somehow put in a strong first half to the season, my impossible dream of him becoming attractive trade deadline bait might somehow come to fruition. Hopefully, the AAA/AA SP options keep developing at a fast rate, making the willingness to trade Correia at a high point in his value, a reality- A Big Win-Win for the Twins and Correia- who could go to a contender.

 

I agree, got to give credit where it's due. I think I did that in both posts. I'll absolutely enjoy it for as long as it lasts and hopefully it'll last the whole year. I would hope every Twins fan wants all of our players to do as well as they can.

[Physics Guy]

Here are some of the FA pitchers we talked about this offseason:

Joe Saunders - 17.1 IP, 2/3 Quality starts, 2.08 ERA, 1.33 WHIP

Kevin Correia - 21.1 IP, 3 quality starts, 2.95 ERA, 1.22 WHIP

Edwin Jackson - 16.1 IP, 3 non-quality starts, 6.06 ERA, 1.59 WHIP

Brandon McCarthy - 11.2 IP, 2 non-quality starts, 7.71 ERA, 1.80 WHIP

Joe Blanton - 3 non-quality starts, 8.59 ERA, 2.05 WHIP

Scott Baker - 60 day DL

Shawn Marcum - 15 Day DL, may pitch by end of April

 

So far so good. Ryan looks like a genius thus far, but as alluded to by others, most of these guys are pitching to past history. Blanton, Jackson and McCarthy are not fast starters, Correia and Saunders are. We don't need Correia to be this good, he just needs to not fall apart. 6 IP per start and an ERA in the 4.00 - 4.50 would be a vast improvement over what we had last year. If he can give us Nick Blackburn circa '08 - '09 I would be happy.

[Willihammer]

Ryan looks like a genius thus far

 

I wouldn't go that far.

[Winston Smith]

Einstien said: "anyone can look like a genius if you use a small enough sample"!

[Mike Sixel]

I'm just going to enjoy the moment, and not worry about the decision, or the future. I find it easier to be happy that way.

[Riverbrian]

I'm not exactly sure what point you are trying to make. Is it that you think my info was irrelevant? Not even worth mentioning? What exactly? I mean, you post seems overly sarcastic, but maybe I'm misreading it. Is there something bad about giving this info? Something wrong with giving recent historical info on players?

 

Your sarcasm detector is working correctly.

 

Like I said... I'll have to research it. Personally... and I mean personally... I believe that I will have a tough time linking monthly performance over time on the overwhelming majority of players.

 

Correia had a nice April in 2012 and 2011...

 

He also had a nice September in 2012 if it wasn't for one start against the Mets. He was also decent from May 20 to June 28 in 2012.

 

In 2011... Kevin Correia had a 3.40 ERA on June 1 so it actually lasted longer than April. Matter of fact... He was at 3.73 on July 3. August and September in 2011 didn't go so well for him.

 

I don't have a problem with the use of historical stats. I just sensed an implication from a hand selected incomplete sample and at first blush I do not see any chronological pattern to his success and failures.

[ThePuck]

 

I don't have a problem with the use of historical stats. I just sensed an implication from a hand selected incomplete sample and at first blush I do not see any chronological pattern to his success and failures.

 

maybe just say that next time?

 

Historical stats are used all the time to try and form a pattern. The last three years are usually the most relevant. Using them sometimes and not other times seems like a strange policy. I don't see how pointing out his performance the last three April's prior to this one is any issue, whatsoever...especially with pitchers when they say to start the season pitchers are usually ahead of hitters. Seems April would be a telling month.

 

Next we'll be cutting out pre all-star/post all-star stats. Away games and home games.

 

Nothing wrong with looking at EVERYTHING. Because YOU don't see any chronogical pattern to a players success or failure based on certain time frames doesn't mean there isn't. Certainly doesn't mean the info isn't worth sharing.

 

You say 'In 2011... Kevin Correia had a 3.40 ERA on June 1 so it actually lasted longer than April.' And that's fine, but what that doesn't say is that his ERA was under 3.00 in April and over 4.00 in May to make that 3.40 ERA.

 

Then you say 'Matter of fact... He was at 3.73 on July 3.'..yeah, but now he's posted an ERA of 4.46 in June to raise it to that 3.73. If anything, looking at his July 3rd numbers without looking at anything else would make one believe he'd been pitching at that 3.73 rate for the first three months, it wouldn't tell you he had a very good April and not so good May and a bad June. If anything it shows how relevant pointing out April's stats was in the first place.

[cmathewson]

Three things he's doing now that he hasn't always done: He's mixing up his pitches well, he's moving his pitches in and out and he's keeping the sinker down. If he can keep this up, he'll give us the innings we need.

 

One moment from last night's game gave me particular joy. The hitter was Bourgos. Harris was on second after the Arcia error. Two outs. He got 0-2 on fastballs over the inside and outside corners. Then he threw a slider on the outside corner, which Bourgos was looking for and fouled off. Joe went to the mound and had a long chat with him. When Joe got back into his crouch, Correia threw two four seamers as hard as he could above the letters. Bourgos didn't bite. His last pitch of the night (#102) was the same slider on the outside corner (maybe a touch more outside than the first one), which Bourgos swung and missed for the final out of the 7th. Clearly Joe told him how to set up the hitter and get the strikeout. I doubt he's had a catcher with that particular ability in some time.

[notoriousgod71]

Livan Hernandez and Ramon Ortiz looked good after three starts as well.

[Guest USAFChief]

Three things he's doing now that he hasn't always done: He's mixing up his pitches well, he's moving his pitches in and out and he's keeping the sinker down. If he can keep this up, he'll give us the innings we need.

 

One moment from last night's game gave me particular joy. The hitter was Bourgos. Harris was on second after the Arcia error. Two outs. He got 0-2 on fastballs over the inside and outside corners. Then he threw a slider on the outside corner, which Bourgos was looking for and fouled off. Joe went to the mound and had a long chat with him. When Joe got back into his crouch, Correia threw two four seamers as hard as he could above the letters. Bourgos didn't bite. His last pitch of the night (#102) was the same slider on the outside corner (maybe a touch more outside than the first one), which Bourgos swung and missed for the final out of the 7th. Clearly Joe told him how to set up the hitter and get the strikeout. I doubt he's had a catcher with that particular ability in some time.

Are these facts in evidence? Do we know it wasn't the other way around? "Joe" wanted another slider, and Correia told him to go with two high fastballs first?

[Halsey Hall]

How far woud you go?

[Willihammer]

One moment from last night's game gave me particular joy. The hitter was Bourgos. Harris was on second after the Arcia error. Two outs. He got 0-2 on fastballs over the inside and outside corners. Then he threw a slider on the outside corner, which Bourgos was looking for and fouled off. Joe went to the mound and had a long chat with him. When Joe got back into his crouch, Correia threw two four seamers as hard as he could above the letters. Bourgos didn't bite. His last pitch of the night (#102) was the same slider on the outside corner (maybe a touch more outside than the first one), which Bourgos swung and missed for the final out of the 7th. Clearly Joe told him how to set up the hitter and get the strikeout. I doubt he's had a catcher with that particular ability in some time.

 

Yeah that was a nice sequence to finish off Bourjos at the end there. His breaking pitch worked for him most of the night. That cutter was crushed on 3 or 4 ocassions though, including both HRs. I wonder if he will eventually ditch it, or if he relies on it to keep hitters from keying off his sinker.

[cmathewson]

Are these facts in evidence? Do we know it wasn't the other way around? "Joe" wanted another slider, and Correia told him to go with two high fastballs first?

 

Fair enough. I didn't have a bug on the mound. But it was a long talk. Joe went back into his crouch. No signs, just three pitches in quick succession. Strikeout. The rest is interpretation. But that's part of the fun of watching baseball. In contrast, it can be really sterile if we restrict ourselves to numbers.