Who is your top position player FA target?

[LA Vikes Fan]

Frankly, I feel like I'm repeating what others have said, but don't spend a lot of money on position players, spend it on pitching. I'd love to see them sign Chris Taylor but the Dodgers really like him so he won't be cheap. More likely is Freddy Galvis or Jose Iglesias. Please dear God, no more of Simmons.

On the pitching side, I think 18-22M for a front line starter is too low. I think its more like 20-25m. Would love to see them devote 35m a year to starters, something like 20m to Stroman and 12-15m to Robbie Ray, both on 3 year deals.  More likely combination is someone like Stroman plus Pineda for a total of 30m. If they do the latter they probably have enough to sign Taylor to go with it. 

I'd love to trade for controllable starting pitching but I don't think we have the talent to pull it off. We'd have to trade someone with a very high potential ceiling like Woods Richardson PLUS a Kepler and a position player prospect like Celestino to get a controllable #2 or #3 guy. I would rather keep the talent we have, sign one high end FA starter and get by with Pineda in the 2 spot, followed by Ryan, Ober and Dobnak/Winder/Duran, etc.  Then spend 10-15m on 2 solid/good bullpen pieces, plus a glove first stop gap SS like Galvis. Probably doesn't get us to contention in 2022 unless we get lucky, but will hopefully develop what we have for 2023-2025. 

[TheLeviathan]

Polanco hasn't actually been bad at SS this year, for the record.  I'd rather have him there than Simmons.  

I'd rather see what Pat Meares is up to than Simmons.  

I'd rather play Sano at SS than resign Simmons.

I'd rather see Kirk Cousins at SS than resign Simmons.

Royce Lewis may be a fine option down the road but I hope the Twins don't bake that into their planning.  He feels years away and is no certainty given what the young man has been through.

[Twins33]

Correa but there are a few SS I’d be perfectly fine with. I would focus on pitching mostly but a SS is absolutely needed. 

[tony&rodney]

Mark Canha plays a decent OF and carries a bat, but he is a secondary position FA choice.

[cHawk]

Tough one. Definitely go after a SS. I’d say either Baez or Correa, both quality players and both bringing something the Twins need: World Series WINNING Experience

[Brandon]

For fun: Carlos Correa.  He was almost a Twin anyways. 

For Real: we could sign Chris Taylor for SS.  Also Rosario could be had on a cheap 1 year contract 2 to 3 million 5 million tops I bet.  

Go fir the super lineup.  We can bludgeon our opponents more than they bludgeon us.

[joefish]

IMO, Larnach is defensive liability. Pretty slow. Below average arm. Poor fundamentals and a low level skill set. 

He better hit the cover off the ball. 

I'd take Kepler's defense. Even though he has lost all signs of being a good hitter. How did he get so bad? He is clueless these days. 

[Battle ur tail off]

I don't like them spending any money on position players. Sign 2 of the best relievers out there, and 1 starter. Then look to trade for a starter. A top starter. Any prospect should be on the table. All of them. Get me a 24-26 year old arm that is controllable and a top of the rotation piece. 

Polanco can play short. If not, then just sign back Simmons or some other glove first guy on a short deal.

[South Dakota Tom]

Here is one more weird out of the box thought about a position player - trade Miguel Sano (and pieces?) for Trea Turner.  LA shifts Muncy back to 2b, Turner is in his last arb year (probably a QO candidate the year after), but is our SS for 2022 at least.

[Mike Vendsel]

9 minutes ago, South Dakota Tom said:

Here is one more weird out of the box thought about a position player - trade Miguel Sano (and pieces?) for Trea Turner.  LA shifts Muncy back to 2b, Turner is in his last arb year (probably a QO candidate the year after), but is our SS for 2022 at least.

I like the Turner idea but I am guessing the Dodgers keep Turner and move him to short when Seager signs elsewhere. 

[South Dakota Tom]

20 hours ago, MIke Vendsel said:

I like the Turner idea but I am guessing the Dodgers keep Turner and move him to short when Seager signs elsewhere. 

I am assuming they try to keep Seager - but you are correct, Turner is their SS if Seager goes elsewhere.

[Major League Ready]

On 9/18/2021 at 5:01 PM, DocBauer said:

I still like the core of this team when healthy and getting a fresh start in 2022, WITH help on the mound. The Twins projected payroll for 2020 would have sat almost dead on at $150M. Two years later, with fans back and the game back to a full season, and the FO stating they want to compete and believe they can, that means $50-60M available to re-tool the 2022 Twins and only MATCH the projected 2020 payroll.

That means $18-22M, roughly, for a top SP. Might even have to bump it up slightly. Secondly,  unless they just want to toss $ at the bump, they need to make a move similar to Odorizzi/Maeda where they acquire a good, solid SP for some young talent. What the cost would be is just too hard to predict. Third, they really need to add a decent 3rd rotation piece. Think Pineda or similar for what, $6-8M if you get lucky? Fourth, you almost have to spend a combined $5-8M on a couple decent BP arms.

I understand this is about PLAYERS and not pitchers, but I use this as a reference point in regard to what the team needs and what is affordable. I just don't see where the $ is available for one of the TOP SS on the market to effectively build a team. 

Unless the FO just knocks it out of the park in a rotation re-build, or gambles on TWO experienced arms and trusts the other 3 spots to young talent, Baez or anyone else just don't fit payroll wise.

I love the Taylor idea on a 1yr, or 1+1 type of deal. Maybe even a 2yr. Galvis is my #2 SS option, and might be the most practical fit. My #3 is, somewhat grudgingly, Simmons with the hope his bat would more clearly resemble his previous 4yrs, but at a reduced salary. 

After that I can't give you an exact name right now, but I want a RH 4th OF for $2-4M who can play defense and provide some solid offense to spell Kepler/Kirilloff/Larnach. Think Pillar on a rebound or someone similar. 

Spend the $ on pitching but bring in a good defensive SS who can handle a bat and that quality 4th RH OF. I'm happy with that.

Agree with everything here.  However, according to Spot Trac their payroll was just over $131M in 2020.  Perhaps more to the point, projected attendance is going to be down based on a poor 2021.  They just had a couple of terrible seasons financially and the odds of them fielding a true contender in 2022 are very low.  If I were Derek Falvey, I would not be inclined to present a plan to the Pohlad's for record spending in a year where we likely won't content and such a plan very likely produces a financial result around break-even or potentially a net loss.  Would love it if the Pohlad's said here you go Derek, spend $150M but that's not going to happen.

While unlikely, I would like to see them land a top SP for the long haul.  Move Donaldson and they can extend Buxton and sign Chris Taylor.  Solidify the rotation during the course of 2022 between Winder / Balazovic / Enlow / Duran . SWR etc.  This would be a good team, not a true contender be we look very good by the start 2023.

[tony&rodney]

"Would love it if the Pohlad's said here you go Derek, spend $150M but that's not going to happen."

This is important when one speculates how the Twins move forward this offseason. We actually do not know anything about how the Twins will choose to build their 2022 budget, but there are certainly some valid predictions based on past practices. Keeping this in mind, anyone building a roster for next season will need roughly three models: one for $100 million or less, one for around $125 million, and one aggressive model for around $150 million. My use of "around is +/- $10 million, thus a floor of near $90 million and a ceiling of near $160 million.

In my opinion each of these is possible and none necessarily more likely than the next. When I think about how the Twins can proceed going forward, I look at all three possibilities. When the season is finished and individuals on Twins Daily begin to guesstimate and play with their favored possibilities for 2022, each person should think along each of the three budget lines.

[Major League Ready]

On 9/27/2021 at 3:42 PM, tony&rodney said:

"Would love it if the Pohlad's said here you go Derek, spend $150M but that's not going to happen."

This is important when one speculates how the Twins move forward this offseason. We actually do not know anything about how the Twins will choose to build their 2022 budget, but there are certainly some valid predictions based on past practices. Keeping this in mind, anyone building a roster for next season will need roughly three models: one for $100 million or less, one for around $125 million, and one aggressive model for around $150 million. My use of "around is +/- $10 million, thus a floor of near $90 million and a ceiling of near $160 million.

In my opinion each of these is possible and none necessarily more likely than the next. When I think about how the Twins can proceed going forward, I look at all three possibilities. When the season is finished and individuals on Twins Daily begin to guesstimate and play with their favored possibilities for 2022, each person should think along each of the three budget lines.

The only way they get to $90M is if they get someone to take Donaldson.  Assuming the other teams takes $15M of his salary, the Twins would be at around $81M if they cut Colome and did not spend a dime in free agency.  This also assumes a major league minimum of $650K.  I definitely do not see 90-100M as “equally likely”.

There is also a microscopic probability they spend on the high end of the range you suggested ($160M).  Anything can happen in sports but attendance and revenue is going to be down and they just had two very bad years.  I have worked with many companies on alternative future state strategies and never has one ever opted for record spending with a forecast for declining revenue.  Would any of us increase our spending with our income declining, especially when we took a revenue hit in the previous two years?  Billionaires don't get to be billionaires by spending in this manner.  

The three biggest potential influences on budget will be  ….

1. Does the front office opt for a short-term or long-term approach?  The long-term approach revolves around building a starting rotation from the numerous prospects that are near ready.  In this scenario, they could aim to add at least 2 more starters from the farm to join Ober / Ryan during 2022.  Then, use the financial flexibility gained from this approach to add a front of the rotation SP like Berrios in 2023.  Of course, they could add the top piece this year and still pursue the same basic strategy.
2. Can they trade Donaldson and do they want to.  They may not want to if their approach is heavily focused on contending next year.  They could also hold on to him until the deadline.  I would prefer they trade him if possible and get Miranda up.
3. Byron Buxton – If they can’t come to agreement and trade Buxton the focus for 2022 likely shifts to retooling over the course of the season for 2023.

They can field a very good team and still take a long-term approach.  Sign one good SP, one RP, and a SS.  Chris Taylor fits nice into this approach.  Move Donaldson and get Miranda some and eventually Martin some ML experience.  Add two SP over the course of the year from our farm system. I would also trade Arraez if the return is right.

 

[tony&rodney]

1 hour ago, Major League Ready said:

The only way they get to $90M is if they get someone to take Donaldson.  Assuming the other teams takes $15M of his salary, the Twins would be at around $81M if they cut Colome and did not spend a dime in free agency.  This also assumes a major league minimum of $650K.  I definitely do not see 90-100M as “equally likely”.

There is also a microscopic probability they spend on the high end of the range you suggested ($160M).  Anything can happen in sports but attendance and revenue is going to be down and they just had two very bad years.  I have worked with many companies on alternative future state strategies and never has one ever opted for record spending with a forecast for declining revenue.  Would any of us increase our spending with our income declining, especially when we took a revenue hit in the previous two years?  Billionaires don't get to be billionaires by spending in this manner.  

The three biggest potential influences on budget will be  ….

1. Does the front office opt for a short-term or long-term approach?  The long-term approach revolves around building a starting rotation from the numerous prospects that are near ready.  In this scenario, they could aim to add at least 2 more starters from the farm to join Ober / Ryan during 2022.  Then, use the financial flexibility gained from this approach to add a front of the rotation SP like Berrios in 2023.  Of course, they could add the top piece this year and still pursue the same basic strategy.
2. Can they trade Donaldson and do they want to.  They may not want to if their approach is heavily focused on contending next year.  They could also hold on to him until the deadline.  I would prefer they trade him if possible and get Miranda up.
3. Byron Buxton – If they can’t come to agreement and trade Buxton the focus for 2022 likely shifts to retooling over the course of the season for 2023.

They can field a very good team and still take a long-term approach.  Sign one good SP, one RP, and a SS.  Chris Taylor fits nice into this approach.  Move Donaldson and get Miranda some and eventually Martin some ML experience.  Add two SP over the course of the year from our farm system. I would also trade Arraez if the return is right.

 

MLR, I do not disagree with anything you state, more or less. Remember that in this case a billionaire became that billionaire due exclusively to birth. I don't necessarily believe that changes anything but it is noteworthy.  

[Major League Ready]

3 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

MLR, I do not disagree with anything you state, more or less. Remember that in this case a billionaire became that billionaire due exclusively to birth. I don't necessarily believe that changes anything but it is noteworthy.  

It is noteworthy that the current generation inherited their wealth.  Let's hope they are bold with the $$ as a result.  My guess is they might be even less prone to squander it because they most likely have been educated since birth on how to manage a fortune.

The good news is this team is positioned much better than you would expect for a 90 loss team.  They have 2 very good rookie SPs and the BP has been very good for the last couple months.  They will get Rodgers and Kirilloff back.  Add even one good free agent SP and a good SS and we will have a good team with the potential to get significantly better over the next couple years. 

IMO, An extra 10 or $20M spent on free agency won't be nearly as important as what we produce for pitching from the current crop of prospects.  This group looks much deeper to me but maybe that's just optimism.  Prioritize the $$ toward keeping Buxton and signing a SS and we will be in great shape by 2023.  Move Donaldson and spend on a top SP and move up the timeline.  That's the most practical path to contention as I see it but obviously there is more than one way to get there.

It is feasible to spend $15M on a SS and $25M on a SP and $5M on the BP without moving Donaldson.  Keeping Buxton would require we buyout Sano in 2023.  That approach is around $130M.  Maybe the Pohlad's would be willing to stretch to $140M.  Some will say that we need to spend more on the BP but RP are bad investments and as I said earlier, our BP has been good for a couple months.  Add Rodgers and one solid late inning guy and the BP won't be a problem.

[jmlease1]

It has to be SS. They'd be taking a huge risk in turning over SS to Lewis or Martin as the Day 1 starter and there's not exactly a ton of SS depth behind them. the team wants Polanco at 2B (as they should; he's played like an all-star there with excellent offense and quality defense). Gordon is not an every day SS. there's real questions if he's an occasional SS. With tons of quality options on FA market, I'd be very happy with the Twins making a move there.

[chpettit19]

1 hour ago, Major League Ready said:

It is feasible to spend $15M on a SS and $25M on a SP and $5M on the BP without moving Donaldson.  Keeping Buxton would require we buyout Sano in 2023.  That approach is around $130M.  Maybe the Pohlad's would be willing to stretch to $140M.  Some will say that we need to spend more on the BP but RP are bad investments and as I said earlier, our BP has been good for a couple months.  Add Rodgers and one solid late inning guy and the BP won't be a problem.

I think this would be my Plan A if I were the FO. I don't think trading Donaldson is a net win as they'd simply have to eat too much of his contract and nobody that replaces him in the lineup will produce like him. I like Miranda, but it's unreasonable to expect him to step in and hit like Donaldson from the jump. If they can get somebody to take his whole contract for nothing in return I'd take that as that $$ could be used on a SS, pitching, and/or Buxton, but I don't see it happening. I think you have to eat at least half that deal and still don't get a real prospect back so, to me, it's better to just keep him. The prospects are the key to whether this is a 1 year fluke, a 2 year dip, or a repeat of the early 2010s. They have to hit on multiple arms or they're screwed. Keep JD and hope your pipeline is ready to flow.

[Brock Beauchamp]

24 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I think this would be my Plan A if I were the FO. I don't think trading Donaldson is a net win as they'd simply have to eat too much of his contract and nobody that replaces him in the lineup will produce like him. I like Miranda, but it's unreasonable to expect him to step in and hit like Donaldson from the jump. If they can get somebody to take his whole contract for nothing in return I'd take that as that $$ could be used on a SS, pitching, and/or Buxton, but I don't see it happening. I think you have to eat at least half that deal and still don't get a real prospect back so, to me, it's better to just keep him. The prospects are the key to whether this is a 1 year fluke, a 2 year dip, or a repeat of the early 2010s. They have to hit on multiple arms or they're screwed. Keep JD and hope your pipeline is ready to flow.

Yeah, the 50% mark is the cutoff for me to even consider a Donaldson trade. As the Twins, if I have to eat half or more of the contract, I keep Josh. He's still too good a hitter to essentially give away just to free up single-digit millions of dollars.

[Major League Ready]

54 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I think this would be my Plan A if I were the FO. I don't think trading Donaldson is a net win as they'd simply have to eat too much of his contract and nobody that replaces him in the lineup will produce like him. I like Miranda, but it's unreasonable to expect him to step in and hit like Donaldson from the jump. If they can get somebody to take his whole contract for nothing in return I'd take that as that $$ could be used on a SS, pitching, and/or Buxton, but I don't see it happening. I think you have to eat at least half that deal and still don't get a real prospect back so, to me, it's better to just keep him. The prospects are the key to whether this is a 1 year fluke, a 2 year dip, or a repeat of the early 2010s. They have to hit on multiple arms or they're screwed. Keep JD and hope your pipeline is ready to flow.

It's just a WAG but I was thinking they could get someone to take on $12M/year.  At that rate I don't want him on the books in 2023.  Of course, that could be done at the deadline next year.  I too believe the biggest impact going forward lies in the pitching prospects.  If they establish two more SPs next year they could spend big on a top of the rotation SP.  Berrios or better.  Under this scenario, they could spend $30M on a SP and $15M on the BP and be at under $130M.  That includes $20M/ year for Buxton