Article: Top 10 Stories For 2013: #2 Whither Justin?

[John Bonnes]

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?r=1490-Top-10-Stories-For-2013-2-Whither-Morneau

[Oldgoat_MN]

It's not all about heart. Morneau at his best is an incredibly difficult player to replace.

Not just his hitting, but he plays a 1B that might merit Gold Glove consideration if he played in New York.

I get that if Parmelee rakes then it might be wise to move him to make room for Arcia.

Still, this is an extraordinary player we are talking about.

Let's not jump the gun.

[pajavorski]

I have fond memories of Morneau, but if he has a good first half he will probably be more valuable to the twins as trade bait than a veteran cornerstone for contention in 2014/2015. Some may argue how much value he has considering his contract but wouldn't it make sense for a contender who needs a bat to give up a Decent B+ prospect if the Twins included some Money? Mauer will be the expensive old man for the next twins contender lets just hope he isnt a light hitting DH by then!

[Oldgoat_MN]

Oh, yeah. And thank you John, for another thoughtful topic for us to argue about.

[Old Twins Cap]

I think the thing to keep an eye on, microscopically enough, is how Morneau handles low pitches. I had season tickets in 2010 down the right field line, and what struck me, as Morneau was racking up some serious numbers despite hitting a lot of drives that fell short of the fences in Target Field, was how he could go down and get his bat under low pitches.

 

We know how Morneau has a kind of buggy-whip swing, he sees a ball, his eyes get all big and he wants to hit the damn thing, but the key is to flex at the knees, get down low and use that leverage to lift a low pitch and drive it somewhere. You gotta understand: every pitching coach and every catcher is telling every pitcher in the league to keep the ball down against Justin.

 

So, to me, the real tell-tale sign is: does he flex at the knees and is he able to drive the low pitch, whether to left or center, and if inside, to drill it to right. If he is, that means he's all the way back. If he hits a lot of ground balls, or flails at low pitches, then it's likely that he's lost something essential. At that point, I say, trade him and take a chance on Parmelee. At least Parmelee seems more than willing to lay off the low pitches and see if he gets called out on them or not.

[glunn]

I think that there is a good chance that Morneau will still be a cornerstone type player for at least two or three more years. I would hate to see him traded unless the Twins get a very high ceiling prospect in return.

[tjsyam921]

I think if Parmelee hits they should trade Morneau. I just hope they don't give him another big contract if he does have a big year this year seeing it's a contract year.

[Thrylos]

I don't think that Parmelee would have anything to do on whether they trade Morneau at all. At best he would keep the first bag warm for Vargas or Sano. Now if the Twins were to keep Morneau for a couple more years to bridge the gap to those instead of Parmelee, I would have no issues with it; on the other hand, I can see a Mauer/Parmelee/someone else split at first base working fine as a place holder as well and be about $10-13 mil a season less expensive.

[Mr. Brooks]

I don't think that Parmelee would have anything to do on whether they trade Morneau at all. At best he would keep the first bag warm for Vargas or Sano. Now if the Twins were to keep Morneau for a couple more years to bridge the gap to those instead of Parmelee, I would have no issues with it; on the other hand, I can see a Mauer/Parmelee/someone else split at first base working fine as a place holder as well and be about $10-13 mil a season less expensive.

 

I've heard Vargas name mentioned a couple of times on this site. I don't think anyone is keeping anything warm for Vargas. He's a fringe prospect at best. I've never seen him on any top 10 Twins prospects list, and rarely even seen him in a top 20 list. He's more like a 25 to 30 range.

Not saying those guys will never make it, but its an extreme long shot, and for sure they shouldnt be counted on.

 

As for Sano, I'm finding myself moving into the camp that thinks they should just move him to 1B and get it over with.

I keep hearing that his bat is seriously close to MLB ready, like later this year, or opening day 2014. I say, just make the move and get him up here if his bat really is that close.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I think that there is a good chance that Morneau will still be a cornerstone type player for at least two or three more years. I would hate to see him traded unless the Twins get a very high ceiling prospect in return.

 

Which they won't. Two month rentals of first basemen do not pull down elite prospects. They might be able to get a moderate upside guy who is very raw but they won't get more than that for Justin (unless he's posting a 1.000 OPS or something silly like that).

 

Still, it'd be better than nothing, I suppose.

[Steve Lein]

As for Sano, I'm finding myself moving into the camp that thinks they should just move him to 1B and get it over with.

 

I think Sano's going to be fine at 3B while he's young. He looked ten-fold better at 3B this Spring Training than last, and believe it or not, he's abnormally athletic for his size, which helps him in that regard.

 

And I think 1B would be a vast waste of what he can do defensively, so I'd keep him there until he's the worst defender at the position in all of baseball (if such a thing might happen), then I'd try him in RF before ever sending him toward 1B.

[Winston Smith]

John, Carlos goes back a long ways you must be old.

 

 

 

"The trick is in what one emphasizes. We either make ourselves miserable, or we make ourselves happy. The amount of work is the same.”

― Carlos Castaneda

 

No the trick as Twins fans is we can make ourselves both miserable and happy at the same time!

 

On Morneau does anyone really think Ryan would give him (at 33 yrs old) a multi year 10+m contract if he has a good year?

[jmlease1]

Which they won't. Two month rentals of first basemen do not pull down elite prospects. They might be able to get a moderate upside guy who is very raw but they won't get more than that for Justin (unless he's posting a 1.000 OPS or something silly like that).

 

Still, it'd be better than nothing, I suppose.

 

Brock speaketh the truth. Morneau just won't have much trade value, even if he's ripping the cover off the ball because of his expiring contract and injury history.

 

It's a really hard decision on Morneau. I think if he finishes the year healthy and hits he'll rate a multi-year deal from someone, so at a minimum if he's not dealt the Twins should make him a qualifying offer if Parmelee handles RF reasonably well this season. At least get some compensation if they're not going to sign him to a multi-year.

 

I think there's still room on the roster for Morneau after this season, especially since everyone seems to think that Willingham will get dealt when the Twins are out of it by the trade deadline. Maybe a 3-year deal? next year's OF rotation becomes Arcia, Hicks, & Parmelee with Benson as the 4th, Parmelee backing up Morneau?

 

Keep in mind, right now there's little depth at 1B in the Twins system behind Parmelee. Maybe Sano ends up there, but he still needs to learn the position and we know the Twins are hoping he can stick at 3B.

[strumdatjag]

The first baseman of the future for the Twins is Joe Mauer. The Twins should try to get some value for Morneau near the trade deadline (if the Twins are not contending).

[diehardtwinsfan]

There are a few things to think about.

 

1) There is no obvious DH for the 2014-2016 team with this next wave of propspects. The MIF situation isn't that nice either (though I could see them rushing Rosario). Depending on how they draft his year, the pitching should be fine. As already said, a healthy Justin still has a few more "cornerstone" years and could fit into this wave quite nicely during that time.

 

2) Nothing prevents a trade and then a resign as a free agent next year. I know it's rare, but it can happen. Trading Justin isn't necessarily a guarantee that they lose him. The question will have more to do with what they pay him, and unless he really wants to be back, there will not be a hometown discount. The question at hand has more to do with what Justin wants than anything else. If the Jays offered him a 2 year deal, he'd have to consider taking it for no other reason than that they'd be a contending team during that timeframe. If the Twins got a decent prospect for him (particularly a middle infielder/pitcher that can fit into the 2015 team), I'd say they have no choice but to do it if that offer came.

[fairweather]

The Twins should be trying to trade Mauer not Morneau.

[Brock Beauchamp]

The Twins should be trying to trade Mauer not Morneau.

 

I had to look up your IP address just to make sure you weren't a certain mullet-sporting hockey blogger from St. Cloud. Your irrational Mauer hatred isn't quite as professionally troll-y as his yet but keep at it, tiger. You'll get there someday.

[Riverbrian]

Something tells me that the Twins won't trade Justin if he has a good year. Unless of course... they are blown away with an offer.

 

If he has a good year... He will at least be offered the 13 Million qualifier. After that it's up to Justin.

 

Yes... we have young talent but it shouldn't be a case of this guy is a starter and this guy is a bench guy. All baseball teams need depth and a creative manager can get players in the lineup and if we have Parmelee and Morneau and Arcia and Willingham and Doumit and Mauer all doing well. Good for us. There will be room for all of them in 2014. It would be a good problem to have. Depth would be awesome.

 

If Morneau has another injury riddled or a plain ole so-so year and the Twins are not in contention. Then you may see him dumped in a trade for someone of marginal value or he will simply not be offered 13 Million and he becomes a free agent.

 

In my opinion... 3 things have to happen for Justin to be moved.

 

1. The Twins are out of contention in July.

2. Justin is healthy and raking.

3. A contending club is desperate for a big bat 1B and willing to part with a high level prospect.

 

I think #3 will be the biggest hurdle.

[Boom Boom]

Why does it seem like the Twins will be more likely to trade Willingham than Morneau? Does the extra contract year increase Willingham's trade value?

 

I get that Morneau's been hurt a lot, but Willingham doesn't exactly have a sparkling medical record either. I think the Twins want to keep "their guys" and Morneau is one of us while Willingham isn't.

[bird]

I'm hoping for the scenario painted by Riverbrian: that Morneau is healthy and a 800 OPS+ player; and that Toronto or Texas values him more than we do, thereby relinquishing a B+ pitching prospect from A-ball. I'd hope the Twins would throw some money in to upgrade the prospect.

 

I also believe that's unlikely, and the next best option would be to make the $13M offer gain something either way from Morneau's decision.

[jmlease1]

Why does it seem like the Twins will be more likely to trade Willingham than Morneau? Does the extra contract year increase Willingham's trade value?

 

I get that Morneau's been hurt a lot, but Willingham doesn't exactly have a sparkling medical record either. I think the Twins want to keep "their guys" and Morneau is one of us while Willingham isn't.

 

The extra year and the lower price are exactly why, especially since while he's had some issues staying healthy there's nothing in there that throws up a medical red flag like Morneau's concussion issue where one pitch could end his career. Plus, the Twins have prospects coming up that are nearly ready in the OF, making it easier to move one.

 

If Willingham is hitting like last season near the deadline there could be a nice market for him. You'd have to listen, especially if Arcia is raking in AAA and there's a decent offer. The Twins could get a mid-to-upper level prospect plus for Willingham in those circumstances, depending on what contenders need. Morneau is less likely to bring that return with free agency pending and less recent production & health.

 

I still do not favor just giving either away for whatever we can get in a salary dump like some advocate.

[Dave T]

Well, first of all, anybody is available if the price is right. Morneau is one of the Twins core players, and I predict he'll hit well enough to earn at least the minimum $13 million-for-a-year offer that will result in a draft pick if he leaves. The Twins won't trade him at the deadline unless a) Justin is happy about it, meaning Toronto, and the Twins get something really valuable in return, like they should have gotten for Santana. Put on your Rays GM cap. What would the Rays get if they had Justin and traded him to another team. If the Twins don't get that kind of offer, then keep him.

 

Nobody is forcing us to trade Justin. If Arcia is raking in AAA, the guy who should worry is Parmalee.

[Snortwood]

I agree with Steve Lein. If Miguel Cabrera can play 3B and Prince Fielder can play 1B on a pennant winning squad, the key to defense is for sure NOT your cornermen. Let Sano grow into an adequate third-baseman and the Twins are much better off for it. Just like they are for keeping Mauer behind the plate. Until he proves otherwise, keep him at the hot corner and see if that can work.

[Mr. Brooks]

I agree with Steve Lein. If Miguel Cabrera can play 3B and Prince Fielder can play 1B on a pennant winning squad, the key to defense is for sure NOT your cornermen. Let Sano grow into an adequate third-baseman and the Twins are much better off for it. Just like they are for keeping Mauer behind the plate. Until he proves otherwise, keep him at the hot corner and see if that can work.

 

You kind of contradict yourself when you say that the key to defense is not your cornermen, but then say that the Twins are much better off if Sano plays 3rd.

 

Anyways, I agree he's more valuable at 3B, but my point is if moving him to 1B gets his bat here sooner, then I'm for it.

From what I've heard, his bat is VERY close to being ready, it's going to be improving on his brutal 3B defense that is going to hold him back longer.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I don't see the rush with Sano. His bat is certainly prodigious but it seems he could still use a little refinement, particularly in the strikeout department (it will be interesting to see how it plays out as he rises in the minors and sees better off-speed stuff). And if it takes 6-12 months extra to see him in a Twins uniform but he'll be at the hot corner instead of first, I think that's worth waiting for.

[Mr. Brooks]

I don't see the rush with Sano. His bat is certainly prodigious but it seems he could still use a little refinement, particularly in the strikeout department (it will be interesting to see how it plays out as he rises in the minors and sees better off-speed stuff). And if it takes 6-12 months extra to see him in a Twins uniform but he'll be at the hot corner instead of first, I think that's worth waiting for.

 

Yeah, if you can guarantee that he'll make it at 3B, and stick long term at 3B, I agree.

But if his bat is ready, but you hold him back wanting him to stay at 3B, only for it to never happen, and end up bringing him up as a 1B anyway, then all that time was a waste.

 

And, I'm not saying he's ready now.

But I'm hearing he's close , that his bat could be ready as soon as Sept. this year, or opening day next year.

[Physics Guy]

The Twins should be trying to trade Mauer not Morneau.

 

This coming from the same guy who posted this as the top 10 hitters in the AL Central:

"Take the gloves off

1)Cabrera 2)Fielder 3)Butler 4)Willingham 5)Martinez 6)Dunn 7)Gordon 8)Morneau 9)Swisher 10)Jackson"

 

I simply assumed you accidentally left Joe off. Now I know better. Where is that ignore button?

[Thrylos]

I don't see the rush with Sano. His bat is certainly prodigious but it seems he could still use a little refinement, particularly in the strikeout department (it will be interesting to see how it plays out as he rises in the minors and sees better off-speed stuff). And if it takes 6-12 months extra to see him in a Twins uniform but he'll be at the hot corner instead of first, I think that's worth waiting for.

 

Agree about waiting for him to get better defensively in the hot corner, but that strikeout thing, which is mentioned way too often, is an exaggeration.

 

Check this out. Here are the Ks and BBs of the following Twins' power hitters last season. Nobody is complaining that they strike out much:

 

Willingham 76 BB 141 K

Morneau 49 BB 102 K

Doumit 29 BB 98 K

 

And here is Sano's. As you can see he has a better BB:K ratio that all 3

 

Sano: 80 BB 144 K

 

So, if someone is complaining about Sano's Ks he/she should be complaining about Willingham's and Morneau's and Doumit's....

[Kwak]

A couple of curious things to me: 1) the assumption that Morneau wants to stay with the Twins. True, the Twins can make things difficult for Morneau ("Lohse him") if they don't trade him. 2) all the hate on Parmalee. He was "Gardyied" last Spring and didn't handle it. Whereas Plouffe also stunk-up the stadium but he was protected (Hughes whose Spring was comparable to Plouffe's got the axe) until his remarkable 5-week run saved him, but Parmalee got demoted. I sure don't recall a similar vitriol against Plouffe last Spring like there is with Parmalee now.

 

Returning to Morneau, the Twins are making it appear that they are in a full-rebuild mode, with the intent to become Tampa North--$65MM payroll with one very highly compensated star and the rest youth at minimum or near-minimum salaries. Given that hypothesis, why would the Twins retain Morneau? Until a new core is established (with some experience), retaining Morneau adds payroll, with at best a modest improvement in Wins, but at the expense of earlier draft placement (which may be required to fully rebuild).

[Mr. Brooks]

A couple of curious things to me: 1) the assumption that Morneau wants to stay with the Twins. True, the Twins can make things difficult for Morneau ("Lohse him") if they don't trade him. 2) all the hate on Parmalee. He was "Gardyied" last Spring and didn't handle it. Whereas Plouffe also stunk-up the stadium but he was protected (Hughes whose Spring was comparable to Plouffe's got the axe) until his remarkable 5-week run saved him, but Parmalee got demoted. I sure don't recall a similar vitriol against Plouffe last Spring like there is with Parmalee now.

 

Returning to Morneau, the Twins are making it appear that they are in a full-rebuild mode, with the intent to become Tampa North--$65MM payroll with one very highly compensated star and the rest youth at minimum or near-minimum salaries. Given that hypothesis, why would the Twins retain Morneau? Until a new core is established (with some experience), retaining Morneau adds payroll, with at best a modest improvement in Wins, but at the expense of earlier draft placement (which may be required to fully rebuild).

 

Really, I havent seen any of this vitriol towards Parmalee.

I've seen mostly optimism regarding him, in fact I think even a little bit too much of it.