Your thoughts on the Nelson Cruz trade?

[Nine of twelve]

On 7/23/2021 at 4:23 PM, RedBull34 said:

While I won't say it can't or won't happen, I don't really see it happening.

The last FA I can think of signing with the team that traded him in the following offseason is Kenny Lofton and he was traded in the offseason before, not during the middle of the year.

Rick Aguilera signed with the Twins prior to the 1996 season after being traded by the Twins to Boston during the previous season.

[Brock Beauchamp]

2 hours ago, Vanimal46 said:

Judging a trade the very next day is silly too. How about this. I will bet Cruz provides more value in 2 months for the Rays than the 6-7 years these 2 pitchers will potentially be in the Twins organization. 

What's silly about it? Going into a trade deadline, there are always questions about what teams will offer for any player, doubly so for a 41 year old DH. To get this kind of return from the Rays, of all teams, was unexpected. The trade looks good in the here and now with obviously incomplete information. The way the trade looks today will change in time but that doesn't mean we shouldn't try to evaluate the process that led to the trade.

[Frayne]

Another positive is if Cruz stayed they could have won five to seven games more that could be the difference in drafting fourth every round versus eighth every round next summer. So two good pitchers and tanking could make it a great trade.

 

[RpR]

Yep, grass is always greener on the other side of the fence, even if it means 10 years of never finishing more than 3 game above .500 as was the entire decade of the seventies.

Good for Nelson as he is not on a team run by incompetents.

[TheLeviathan]

4 hours ago, Vanimal46 said:

Judging a trade the very next day is silly too. How about this. I will bet Cruz provides more value in 2 months for the Rays than the 6-7 years these 2 pitchers will potentially be in the Twins organization. 

Not at all.  Firstly, you're declaring this a win for the future two months for the Rays and a "bad result" for the Twins.  Now, if you have the ability to predict the future I'd prefer you use your powers for more good than TD posting.  (Like, for example, telling me what to bet on in Vegas)  But assuming you don't have those powers the truth is you are judging the trade the very next day in the most unfair way possible.

Secondly, yes, we can judge it now.  As a 41 year old DH-only bat with two months left on his contract, we had an expected value for Cruz.  By virtually all accounts, the Twins exceeded that expected value right now.  (Because, like Cruz, those pitchers have expected value too)

And lastly, Nelson Cruz has no tangible benefit to the 2021 Minnesota Twins.  None.  Getting anything that even MIGHT have future value for him is a win.  Much less guys we might be able to plug in next year.  Not to mention more available at-bats for Rooker.  Not to mention, in a lost season, who cares about wins?  

All of those things can be fairly judged right now except for the one way you tried to judge the deal.

[insagt1]

2 hours ago, Frayne said:

Another positive is if Cruz stayed they could have won five to seven games more that could be the difference in drafting fourth every round versus eighth every round next summer. So two good pitchers and tanking could make it a great trade.

 

I summarily and forever abhor the notion of tanking for draft picks. If that were the motive, every stadium of teams that are doing it should be empty. Or all tickets should be free for anyone crazy enough to watch.  Getting 'penalized' for winning in pro sports is so wrong-headed, it should be outlawed by totally changing the way the draft works. This is one soapbox I won't climb down from.

[Brock Beauchamp]

10 hours ago, insagt1 said:

I summarily and forever abhor the notion of tanking for draft picks. If that were the motive, every stadium of teams that are doing it should be empty. Or all tickets should be free for anyone crazy enough to watch.  Getting 'penalized' for winning in pro sports is so wrong-headed, it should be outlawed by totally changing the way the draft works. This is one soapbox I won't climb down from.

I also dislike planned tanking for draft picks but in the second half of a lost season, playing youngsters and possibly losing a bunch of games and moving up the draft board isn't really the same thing as intentionally tanking. The Twins entered this season with every intention of winning, which is considerably different than what the Pirates are doing.

[DJL44]

Doing nothing more than saving the $4.87M owed to Cruz the rest of the season would be a grade "C" trade. No sense spending that money on losing and it can (and should) be re-allocated to the 2022 budget. The roster spot and playing time can be used evaluating the younger players.

The Twins added two halfway decent pitching prospects on TOP of that. Pitching is the biggest area of need in the organization. This is a very good trade.

[ashbury]

4 hours ago, DJL44 said:

No sense spending that money on losing and it can (and won't) be re-allocated to the 2022 budget.

FTFY. Front office has told us that each year's budget is independent of other years'; we should take them at their word until they ever say otherwise.

[bean5302]

I don't think any team in MLB history has tanked for draft position. The MLB draft is way too much of a crap shoot to justify "tanking." It's not like other sports where top 2 or 3 round picks are expected to play immediately. Even a number 1 overall pick is a crapshoot to make it to MLB, let alone be productive at the MLB level.

Teams have tanked in MLB to manipulate service time and bring entire crops of dirt cheap MLB ready talent to the big show in a short period of time while they reserve all their payroll capacity to fill in the gaps after the wave of prospects reveal weak spots.

[USAFChief]

Invalid poll. Needs "rally monkey" option. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

1 hour ago, ashbury said:

FTFY. Front office has told us that each year's budget is independent of other years'; we should take them at their word until they ever say otherwise.

While this is absolutely true, I think moving contracts and saving money in 2021 may make ownership more willing to enter another season with a higher payroll, with Falvine saying “if things go sideways, we can always save a bunch of money in the second half of the season again”.

If Falvine move expiring contracts (and they have no excuse not to do so), they could save the Pohlads close to $15m in salaries if my mental math is right. 

[MinnInPa]

again ..we get nothing in return. if you want to compare..look at the Twins 5 to 30 prospect list..any of these guys gonna be stars??  .300 hitters, 100 RBI guys?? #1  or #2 starter quality pitchers?? nope ..... just a couple more arms that will have success at AAA and then get bombed when their called up.. we cant develop top starters or relievers that miss bats.. this trend continues

[Brock Beauchamp]

31 minutes ago, MinnInPa said:

again ..we get nothing in return. if you want to compare..look at the Twins 5 to 30 prospect list..any of these guys gonna be stars??  .300 hitters, 100 RBI guys?? #1  or #2 starter quality pitchers?? nope ..... just a couple more arms that will have success at AAA and then get bombed when their called up.. we cant develop top starters or relievers that miss bats.. this trend continues

The Twins have been decent to good at developing relievers who miss bats, actually.

Year - MLB Rank in reliever SO
2019 - 12th
2020 - 6th

Obviously, the bullpen is terrible this year but past bullpens have been quite good. 

[nicksaviking]

34 minutes ago, MinnInPa said:

again ..we get nothing in return. if you want to compare..look at the Twins 5 to 30 prospect list..any of these guys gonna be stars??  .300 hitters, 100 RBI guys?? #1  or #2 starter quality pitchers?? nope ..... just a couple more arms that will have success at AAA and then get bombed when their called up.. we cant develop top starters or relievers that miss bats.. this trend continues

Well the thing about trading for AAA pitchers is that the OTHER team team developed the pitchers for us. TB seems to be pretty good at raising pitchers.

[Otaknam]

Gave the trade a B grade. Like the two potential starters in the trade but only a can’t miss prospect would change this to an A grade. 

[mnfireman]

C'mon guys, Cruz was a luxury that a team not going to make the play offs can not afford. This team needs to be able to play the prospects to see where they are in their development and if they fit long term, and some days that means they DH. According to the experts, the prospects received for Cruz were a very good return for a 41 yr old bat only player, but only time will tell.  By the way guys, including his 3 games with Tampa, he is slashing .224/.339/.717 with 3 HRs in July (he's hit 2 HRs for Tampa). Oh yeah, to be that guy, he and Rooker both went 2-12 this weekend.

[tim5189]

The Twins are not going anywhere this year. I believe that the Twins owed it to Cruz to trade him to a contender! The fact that "on paper"  they got two good+ prospects is a big plus.