Is this the offseason to extend Revere?

[Willihammer]

After Span's first two seasons, he had for his career a .305 average and an OBP of .391. And in March 2010, the Twins offered him a 5 year, 16.5m contract with a team option for 2015 valued at $9m. As we all know by now, this has proven to be a very team friendly deal, despite the fact that Denard never again produced at his 2008-2009 levels.

 

So, after 2 seasons watching Revere, Is it time for the Twins to offer him a similar extension?

 

By comparison, Revere is hitting for a .278 average and getting on base at a .319 clip. His current career BABIP of .308 is a full .040 points lower than Span's was after 2 seasons. Further, Revere is every bit as able to put balls in play, avoid striking out, and leg out infield hits. Revere was 2nd in baseball in infield hits with 58 over the past two seasons (behind Ichiro) and 9th in bunt hits, despite the low BABIP - facts that tells me that Revere's batting average is more likely to go up then down, as his BABIP settles in somewhere in the neighborhood of .320-.330. It also is further evidence that Revere's speed is even more elite than Span's.

 

Where Revere excels in speed however, he has (so far) lacked the ability to draw walks, and this is again favorable for the Twins from a bargaining standpoint. He would be better suited to the 9 hole, and a 9 hitter's salaray. Yet, Revere's 5.2% walk rate can hardly dip any lower going forward. It is already the 16th lowest walk rate for the last two years.

 

So, given that Revere is more likely to outperform his career averages going forward, then to underperform them (as Span did), there is doubly a reason to extend him this offseason.

 

Thoughts?

[Mike Sixel]

Not for me. I have my doubts about his ability to walk enough.

[J-Dog Dungan]

I think with the departure of Span, they will keep him in CF until Willingham leaves, then shift him to LF where his arm plays better, even if he is better statistically in CF, because they have other players who are just as fast as him who have the arm to play in CF and RF coming up through the minors.

[Brad Swanson]

I'm not sure there is much need to extend Revere. His stats aren't the type of stats that earn large arbitration figures. Probably best to go year to year with him, especially with all the outfield prospects in the system.

[Riverbrian]

I like Ben and I wouldn't extend him at this time.

[Sssuperdave]

Around the same time they did that 5 yr deal with Span they did a simialr deal with Nick Blackburn. One turned into a team-friendly contract, the other - well, you know how that turned out. Locking in the salary for players like this is kind of a high risk/medium reward scenario that I don't think is a particulary good gamble, despite how well it worked with Span. Although the potential reward gets better if you can lock in a couple years of free agency.

[Brock Beauchamp]

No. Hell no. Play him for another year or two and then flip him.

[Rosterman]

I would wait to see how 2013 goes and further watch the development of others in the minors -- Arcia, Benson, Hicks, Burton, Kepler et al. Revere, if he does prove modestly successful, will end up being a rotating hanger-on, like Juan Pierre. He replaces Span, but doesn't. It's nice to have the speed, but only if you balance it with a stringer 2B/SS and keep more power of OBP in the corner outfields. Right now, the Twins are juggling 4 positions that lack any kind of hitting, especially power, and only one of them showed basepath advancement (the only good thing...at times...for keeping Alexi).

[Willihammer]

No. Hell no. Play him for another year or two and then flip him.

 

After two years then, who is your outfield, with Revere and Willingham gone?

[Mike Sixel]

Arcia, Hicks, whomever else.....

[Boom Boom]

No reason to extend Revere with Hicks so close. I don't predict any kind of offensive breakthrough from Ben this year anyway.

[Twins Twerp]

I say yes actually. If we can sign him to an even better deal than Span we do it. We know what we are getting from this guy. His arm is bad and he has no power. He is a three tool guy, but those three tools are very good. He is a very good fielder, a great basestealer, and will hit for average. I think those three things outweight the fact that he doesn't take walks, doesn't throw well, and has no power (he makes Nick Punto look like Mark McGuire). His value will go up the next few season's as he does it consistantly. Next summer, we flip him and his team friendly deal for another prospect or two. Will he bring back a Meyers type pitching prospect, doubtful, but he may bring back something of use and a B- to C prospect.

 

I am two steps down the road on this one. I think the Twins hold onto Willingham and move Reverre once Hicks and Arcia are up. I am hopeful that Rosario and Sano can stay in the infield, but my instincts tell me that one or both will end up in the OF. That leaves us with even more outfielders than we can handle around 2015ish. Buxton will be ready by 2016 more than likely. Our abundance of OF'ers needs to be turned into a balanced farm system with some power arms. The Span trade was just the beginning, if we work this the right way, we should be able to turn our of'ers into Starting Pitchers, which wins championships.

[nicksaviking]

I think it might be a decent idea. If his contract is similar to Span's, it still shouldn't be an issue if they want to move him. Revere's numbers in his first couple of seasons look farily similar to Michael Bourn's. Minor league numbers were pretty projectable for Bourn and so far, Revere's minor league numbers are also translating. Bourn flashed some power (for the first time and in a contract year) and is going to walk more but he'll also strike out 3x more than Revere.

 

Personally, I think Bourn is overrated. A decent .340-.350 OBP and leading the league in steals doesn't automatically make me think he's an all-world free agent, but it seems a bunch of GM's and baseball wonks seem to disagree seeing as he's one of the top free agents this year and was one of the hottest trade targets last year. If there's a chance Revere could get the same value, I'd lock him up.

 

While I'd be OK with the extension gamble, I think the Twins could wait one more year. Since Revere has no power, I don't think his arb years will be too expensive.

[Bark's Lounge]

I like Ben. He brings a lot of energy to the Twins Lineup and clubhouse - sometimes that can be contagious, and that's a good thing. Fortunately or unfortunately, I do not believe Revere will be starting in the outfield after the 2013 season. Hicks is his superior in talent and Arcia is knocking on the door with his potent bat. I think the world of the guy, but he is merely a stop gap. This is my prediction. No extension.

[Willihammer]

Arcia, Hicks, whomever else.....

 

Why not a 3rd outfielder?

[Rosterman]

Joe Benson. He still is out there.

[Brock Beauchamp]

No. Hell no. Play him for another year or two and then flip him.

 

After two years then, who is your outfield, with Revere and Willingham gone?

 

Hicks, Arcia, Benson, Rosario, Buxton, Kepler... There's no shortage of Twins outfield prospects.

[ThePuck]

After Span's first two seasons, he had for his career a .305 average and an OBP of .391. And in March 2010, the Twins offered him a 5 year, 16.5m contract with a team option for 2015 valued at $9m. As we all know by now, this has proven to be a very team friendly deal, despite the fact that Denard never again produced at his 2008-2009 levels.

 

So, after 2 seasons watching Revere, Is it time for the Twins to offer him a similar extension?

 

By comparison, Revere is hitting for a .278 average and getting on base at a .319 clip. His current career BABIP of .308 is a full .040 points lower than Span's was after 2 seasons. Further, Revere is every bit as able to put balls in play, avoid striking out, and leg out infield hits. Revere was 2nd in baseball in infield hits with 58 over the past two seasons (behind Ichiro) and 9th in bunt hits, despite the low BABIP - facts that tells me that Revere's batting average is more likely to go up then down, as his BABIP settles in somewhere in the neighborhood of .320-.330. It also is further evidence that Revere's speed is even more elite than Span's.

 

Where Revere excels in speed however, he has (so far) lacked the ability to draw walks, and this is again favorable for the Twins from a bargaining standpoint. He would be better suited to the 9 hole, and a 9 hitter's salaray. Yet, Revere's 5.2% walk rate can hardly dip any lower going forward. It is already the 16th lowest walk rate for the last two years.

 

So, given that Revere is more likely to outperform his career averages going forward, then to underperform them (as Span did), there is doubly a reason to extend him this offseason.

 

Thoughts?

 

I don't think he's done enough to deserve it myself...

[joeboo_22]

Does anyone have any numbers what Span would have made without the contract? just through arbitration and so on? It would have been more, but not that terribly much more. On the other hand if his batting average drops to the .260 ish range, you have an over paid, CF with no power whatsoever, and 5 guys in the organization that are better then him. With the type of player Revere is, its not worth the risk, I really didn't think it was worth the risk with Span.

[Kwak]

NO! Revere is a placeholder. There won't be a bidding war for his services--ever. Old saying: "as time passes the little guys slow down, but the big guys don't get smaller." :shoot:

[Winston Smith]

NO a lot bigger things to work on!

[Willihammer]

No. Hell no. Play him for another year or two and then flip him.

 

After two years then, who is your outfield, with Revere and Willingham gone?

 

Hicks, Arcia, Benson, Rosario, Buxton, Kepler... There's no shortage of Twins outfield prospects.

 

Where does Joe Benson's or Aaron Hick's minor league track records compare so favorably to Ben Revere's minor league track record. Why would you expect them to be better than Revere at the Major league level? Then you have Buxton and Kepler who are still in A Ball. How is floating Revere something like 5/14 with a 6th option so much riskier than penciling in Buxton and Kepler into your 2015 and 2016 outfield?

[Brock Beauchamp]

No. Hell no. Play him for another year or two and then flip him.

 

After two years then, who is your outfield, with Revere and Willingham gone?

 

Hicks, Arcia, Benson, Rosario, Buxton, Kepler... There's no shortage of Twins outfield prospects.

 

Where does Joe Benson's or Aaron Hick's minor league track records compare so favorably to Ben Revere's minor league track record. Why would you expect them to be better than Revere at the Major league level? Then you have Buxton and Kepler who are still in A Ball. How is floating Revere something like 5/14 with a 6th option so much riskier than penciling in Buxton and Kepler into your 2015 and 2016 outfield?

 

As a 22 year old, Aaron Hicks OPSed .844 in New Britain.

 

As a 22 year old, Ben Revere OPSed .734 in New Britain.

 

It's safe to say that Hicks is the better player. He's fast, he's rangy, he can out-throw me, he can draw a walk, and he actually hits for a little bit of power. Outside of raw speed, Revere doesn't do anything better than Hicks (and the speed bit is up for debate).

 

As for Benson, he's a wildcard. Fell on his face last season and this will be his make-or-break season.

 

If Revere's value is high after 2013 or 2014, it would be in the Twins' best interest to move him, just as they moved Span. That's what you do with a surplus.

[Willihammer]

OK well if Hicks and Benson are both better players than Revere by 2015 and one of them displaces Revere in CF then there would still be a 3rd outfield spot to fill, and Revere could easily be the best guy to fill it.

 

But, put aside for the moment any projections about our farmhands.

 

We have just witnessed how - even when you buy high on young players, like we did with Span - because the Twins did it early enough and for cheap enough, Span's "team value" still went up even though he regressed. I mean, Certainly Meyer is a better return than anything Span would have fetched as a mid-summer rental earning the market rate and going year to year. Can we agree on that?

 

Except, with Revere, to extend him now, the Twins would probably be buying low, and Revere would, if anything, progress over the course of the contract.

 

Consider the possibility that Revere's BABIP spikes to .340 next year. Span had two such seasons before he extended (.339 and .353 to be exact). Suddenly Revere puts up a .306/.348.350 line (along with more steal opportunities, thus more steals, and the usual great defense, great baserunning, etc). What does that do for the arbiter? It would not take long to start seeing the millions slipping away.

 

But, if after 2014 or 2015 everything on the farm has worked out perfectly - meaning 4 of Hicks, Arcia, et al are MLB players than Revere - and there is a buyer out there who likes Revere - now that buyer's almost certainly going to give you a bigger haul for him. Where is the downside?

[Willihammer]

As for Benson, he's a wildcard. Fell on his face last season and this will be his make-or-break season.

 

If Revere's value is high after 2013 or 2014, it would be in the Twins' best interest to move him, just as they moved Span. That's what you do with a surplus.

Getting back to the projecting part, surplus of what? Surplus of minor league talent? You trade away your MLB players when they gain value in order to make room for wildcards who haven't don't a thing at the MLB level? I guess I would rather see the farm guys who do end up sticking it in the MLB, stay on my team.

[jokin]

No. Hell no. Play him for another year or two and then flip him.

 

After two years then, who is your outfield, with Revere and Willingham gone?

 

Hicks, Arcia, Benson, Rosario, Buxton, Kepler... There's no shortage of Twins outfield prospects.

 

Where does Joe Benson's or Aaron Hick's minor league track records compare so favorably to Ben Revere's minor league track record. Why would you expect them to be better than Revere at the Major league level? Then you have Buxton and Kepler who are still in A Ball. How is floating Revere something like 5/14 with a 6th option so much riskier than penciling in Buxton and Kepler into your 2015 and 2016 outfield?

 

As a 22 year old, Aaron Hicks OPSed .844 in New Britain.

 

As a 22 year old, Ben Revere OPSed .734 in New Britain.

 

It's safe to say that Hicks is the better player. He's fast, he's rangy, he can out-throw me, he can draw a walk, and he actually hits for a little bit of power. Outside of raw speed, Revere doesn't do anything better than Hicks (and the speed bit is up for debate).

 

As for Benson, he's a wildcard. Fell on his face last season and this will be his make-or-break season.

 

If Revere's value is high after 2013 or 2014, it would be in the Twins' best interest to move him, just as they moved Span. That's what you do with a surplus.

 

Brock, how do we know he can outthrow you? Did you and Hicks have a non-televised throwing contest?

 

It can be argued that Span's value was heightened to some extent by his team-friendly contract and his established Major League bona fides. Revere falling into the 4th OFer role at a cheap long-term deal wouldn't be all that bad at some point down the line, with the possible annual ability of dangling him for a position of weakness.

[Top Gun]

Hell no, no rush.

[TheLeviathan]

OK well if Hicks and Benson are both better players than Revere by 2015 and one of them displaces Revere in CF then there would still be a 3rd outfield spot to fill, and Revere could easily be the best guy to fill it.

 

Where is the downside?

 

If there is an empty outfield spot it will be a corner outfield spot and part of the emphasis moving Span was that Revere, if he's going to play, belongs in CF. His skill set loses considerable value when you have to have him play there. With Hicks looking like a really good bet for our future CF, that's not something to plan on.

 

The downside is that if you extend Revere there is a good chance he starts to underperform his contract. What Revere does well is very predicated on skills that are hard to project long-term: high BABIP, high contact rate, speed. If any of those things slip he's not a very good player. Span, on the other hand, hits the ball with far more authority and worked counts/walked. Those skills aren't as tenuous as Revere's and thus made him a better long-term investment.

 

Given how badly Revere regressed towards the end of the season it's better to shop him with team control. That has value as well and then the team you decide to move him to has more control over their long term obligations to him.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Simply put, no. Extending Revere is not like extending Longoria or something like that. Revere is a very flawed player who I still think s a very good 4th OF. I have no problem with him being a place holder on a 90some loss team until the OF of the future arrives, which could start as soon as next year. But to give him a guaranteed deal contains a fairly high risk with very little reward. This is very similar to the Nick Blackburn deal. Revere isn't going to get a ton during his arb years. No reason to guarantee him a lot of money...

 

A contract can make a player tradable... It can also make them untradable.

[Brock Beauchamp]

As for Benson, he's a wildcard. Fell on his face last season and this will be his make-or-break season.

 

If Revere's value is high after 2013 or 2014, it would be in the Twins' best interest to move him, just as they moved Span. That's what you do with a surplus.

Getting back to the projecting part, surplus of what? Surplus of minor league talent? You trade away your MLB players when they gain value in order to make room for wildcards who haven't don't a thing at the MLB level? I guess I would rather see the farm guys who do end up sticking it in the MLB, stay on my team.

 

The Twins have two outfielders in AA who tore the cover off the ball last season. Both are younger than Revere and better hitters. That's a surplus.

 

Why extend Revere when he's not even arb eligible yet and you have two superior players in the minors? It's an unnecessary risk.