Examining the playoff rotation

[goulik]

Let me begin with stating that I really hoped we would have added "Impact Pitching" by this point. To be totally honest, I really wanted either Cole or Wheeler and I really did not want Bumgarner or Strasburg as I see them going more the Darvish direction than continuing to be an Ace long term. I was neutral on Ryu. Since none of that happened, I would still would have loved to see a big trade that brought in an Ace.

 

Since that didn't happen, the comparison has been last years rotation to this years rotation. Berrios, Odorizzi, Pineda, Gibson and Perez compared to Berrios, Odorizzi, Bailey, Dobnak, and Thorpe to start the season with Pineda and Hill coming in later. How does Bailey compare to Gibson was a thread topic as well as many discussions about which pitcher may or will emerge among the Dobnak, Thorpe, Smeltzer, and Graterol group of prospects. Within all of these discussions has been an ongoing theme: We didn't really do anything to upgrade our rotation for a World Series push. We need an Ace to win a world series no matter how great our line up is.

 

I would like to discuss something I have not seen as a thread. Let's compare the 2019 Playoff Rotation to what we expect this years rotation to be come October. For the series against the Yankees, we had Berrios, Odorizzi and Dobnak. Gibson was not healthy, and Perez was a disaster so they were both in the bullpen. Pineda was arguably our best pitcher last year and at the time of the suspension, Berrios was in his annual second half swoon while Odorizzi wasn't quite the pitcher he was in the first half either. Before the suspension, I saw Pineda as our number one, but, alas, he was suspended.

 

What is the expected rotation going to be October 2020? With our current roster, I would expect Hill, Pineda, Berrios, and Odorizzi to be available come playoffs and the fifth guy (in this case Bailey) get's moved to the bullpen. Hill's numbers when healthy have been great. If he is healthy, we have someone that on paper resembles an Ace. (fingers crossed, let's pray for a healthy Hill in October) 

 

So comparing last years Rotation: Berrios was 1, Odorizzi 2, Dobnak 3, Bullpen Game 4 to what could be this coming October's rotation: Hill 1, Pineda 2, Berrios 3, Odorizzi 4, I see a very clear upgrade. Even if Pineda is 4 and Berrios and Odorizzi are 1-2 there is a clear upgrade. 

 

I by no means want to bank on these 5 as our playoff rotation. Injuries happen. Regression happens. Second half swoons seem to be a pattern. I still hope a trade can happen either before mid Feb. or at least before the trade deadline. But if it doesn't happen, I am confident we have the offense and at least an improved Rotation even if one of the prospects does not emerge.

[Dman]

I tend to agree.  I think this rotation is likely better if all the pitchers stay relatively healthy and or one of the young guys emerges.   It's just that it is a plan with a fair bit of risk built in and I think that has all of us a bit on edge.  Also looking at the Yankee's rotation is a bit intimidating but they might have injuries as well you never know.  I am sure the FO will explore what is out there and gauge the price but I think they will ultimately decide to wait until the deadline to take the plunge.  They will have a lot more information about how the team is doing at that point and they will know what the true weaknesses and strengths of the team is.  They will also know what players have been performing well and are still healthy at the deadline as well.

[Craig Arko]

This seems a bit premature.

[goulik]

 

This seems a bit premature.

Of course it is but with our history of early exits this century, mostly to the Yankee's, it has been the primary topic of the off season.

[dex8425]

 

This seems a bit premature.

Yeah, there's so much speculation it's not even worth it IMO. We would have had totally different answers last year every month of the season. Dobnak wasn't even on the AA roster at the beginning of the year and Pineda was a total wildcard coming off TJ. I assumed Gibby would be a playoff starter based on his stellar 2018. 

[ashbury]

Projecting to next October now, and comparing that to last October's actual, seems apples-to-oranges to me. A projection one year ago would have included Pineda in the playoff rotation, likewise Gibson (who many thought was due for a breakout season).

 

Last October, it was a struggle to construct even a representative 25-man roster for the post-season. Position players and pitching alike were stretched thin to the breaking point, due to various attrition. I want to see a bit more depth on Opening Day this time.

 

Right now there are 18 position players and 23 pitchers, on the 40-man roster. (Pineda is protected at the moment due to ineligibility.) Too many of those 23 arms are in the category of still-establishing-themselves, to my liking for a playoff contender. It could pan out if multiple pitchers take a big step forward. This represents a pretty big gamble on the FO's collective pitcher evaluation, and the results of past seasons (Rule-5 choices, waiver pickups, trades) under the new brain trust don't lead me to believe they are as yet above major league average at that.

 

So looking ahead to October, we're about in the same boat with starting pitching, as we were looking ahead to October, one year ago. I don't think 2019 was especially unlucky with regarding to starting pitching, and we saw how it played out. So, I am not comfortable at all.

[Thrylos]

 

 

 

So comparing last years Rotation: Berrios was 1, Odorizzi 2, Dobnak 3, Bullpen Game 4 to what could be this coming October's rotation: Hill 1, Pineda 2, Berrios 3, Odorizzi 4, I see a very clear upgrade. Even if Pineda is 4 and Berrios and Odorizzi are 1-2 there is a clear upgrade.

So Berrios, Dobnak, and Odorizzi went belly up last postseason.  Are you sure that Hill, and Pineda would have won the games that Dobnak and Odorizzi lost?

 

I am not.  Actually I am not sure that Hill will even be healthy enough to be in the Twins' postseason roster.

[cardsfan]

I doubt Wheeler frightens many playoff teams. Cole does. Strasberg does.

[Number3]

Playoffs? Playoffs? How about winning the Red Wings game on March 23?

[diehardtwinsfan]

I wouldn't count on Hill for a thing. He's 40, often injured, and won't be ready till what, June? 

 

I don't mind that signing... I do mind counting on him. As for the rotation, if nothing changes, I would be incredibly surprised if we aren't trying to make a trade come deadline... and the way this org holds on to their prospects, I'll be surprised if they bring someone home... I don't like it at all.

 

As it is, we're counting on two guys to stabilize teh rotation in the spring (probably Dobnak and Graterol). Graterol will be on a pitch count, so he'll be in the pen at some point... for the inevitable injury we have Thorpe, Wells, and hopefully a bounce back by Romero. That might make it through the regular season with the linup tha twe have, but we'll be on pins and needles in the post season again unless one of the kids takes a massive step forward and everyone else doesn't regress. 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Praying for Hill's health and counting on him for your rotation at the same time seems like a bad strategy.

 

Hope is not a plan

[USAFChief]

Many of the same people worried about Ryu's health have Hill starting game 2.

[Monkeypaws]

After a crushing 100 loss season, this thread gonna look silly.

 

Just kidding of course - premature tho

[Twodogs]

I doubt Wheeler frightens many playoff teams. Cole does. Strasberg does.

Now that they should have a grip on the sign stealing, a lot of pitchers "could" look a lot different come playoff time??

[ewen21]

I’d like to see anyone pitching for us in the postseason (if we make it) have a fighter’s chance. We averaged less than 3 runs scored in the last 16 playoff games.

 

You can name two of best pitchers of the last 50 years to pitch for and we still might not get through with the kind of at bats I’ve seen.

 

Look.... to me, our offense has been so moribund during this playoff run that I’m not sure that Cole, Strasburg and Bumgarner would have gotten us out the first round last year. It take a total team effort. By saying “we need an ace” to get through the first round you’re going to a safe place. It supposes we are real close—that one more guy would do the trick. It also allows the fan to complain about the cheapness of the Pohlad.

 

I subscribe to neither theory when talking about playoff futility. There is something to where the mindset is. If last season was a smashing success to this organization then I don’t know where we ever turn a corner.

 

It’s as simple as that

[Number3]

Don't have time for this. Too busy working on next year's Washington Redskins Super Bowl roster. Can't figure out which QB to make inactive.