Donaldson contract discussion - 4/100? 4/110?

[dex8425]

The Nats have to be out with the Thames signing. They'd be over the luxury tax and would be in a 26 man roster crunch. 

[Shaitan]

If he "settles" for MN, I hope it doesn't turn into a mopey Lynn or Nolasco situation. But for this kind of $, I wouldn't think so. He's also not a pitcher. Everything we've read here is speculation, which doesn't really tell you how a person feels.

[Brandon]

It's definitely a game a chicken That's for sure. I don't think JD has over played his hand yet as he does have the floor of what Washington offered. So if we back out he can go to DC or sign with Atlanta. I don't think we backed out just don't think he will sign here. I imagine we get a contract negotiated with someone else like Moreland next week and make one last round to JD and up the offer a little with a 24 hour time limit or we sign Moreland......

[HawksNest]

Just posted this in the other thread.

 

 

Recap of Doogie Scoop on Skor North re: Donaldson (Doogie was on M and J during the 5 pm hour):

 

• Twins have a 4 year offer on the table to Donaldson that is closer to the $80-$85 million range as opposed to $100+
• Twins are NOT the high offer right now
• Donaldson’s camp speaks with Twins FO almost daily
• Star Tribune report that we are “out” on Donaldson is “asinine” and Doogie has no idea why the Twins would have leaked that (he confirmed the Miller report originated from Twins org.)
• Doogie’s sources say that Donaldson is extremely intrigued in playing in the AL again, that he’s an “AL guy”.Playing in the Central is also appealing considering the lack of pitching when compared to NL East team.
• Thinks 100% that Donaldson would play here if we upped our offer and that he is very open to the idea of playing for Minnesota
• Says that upping the offer is not a Pohlad decision but that Falvine seem unwilling to budge off assigned “values” that they give free agents
• If all things are equal, Donaldson would likely re-sign with Atlanta, but clearly Atlanta hasn’t reached his asking price yet (neither have we obviously considering we don’t have the high offer)

[AlwaysinModeration]

<p>

 

Just posted this in the other thread.

 

 

Recap of Doogie Scoop on Skor North re: Donaldson:

 

• Twins have a 4 year offer on the table to Donaldson that is closer to the $80-$85 million range as opposed to $100+
• Twins are NOT the high offer right now
• Donaldson’s camp speaks with Twins FO almost daily
• Star Tribune report that we are “out” on Donaldson is “asinine” and Doogie has no idea why the Twins would have leaked that (he confirmed the Miller report originated from Twins org.)
• Doogie’s sources say that Donaldson is extremely intrigued in playing in the AL again, that he’s an “AL guy”.Playing in the Central is also appealing considering the lack of pitching when compared to NL East team.
• Thinks 100% that Donaldson would play here if we upped our offer and that he is very open to the idea of playing for Minnesota
• Says that upping the offer is not a Pohlad decision but that Falvine seem unwilling to budge off assigned “values” that they give free agents
• If all things are equal, Donaldson would likely re-sign with Atlanta, but clearly Atlanta hasn’t reached his asking price yet (neither have we obviously considering we don’t have the high offer)

Taking it with a grain of salt, but that’s a fun report.

 

Except for the second-to-last bullet point.

[Mr. Brooks]

So another FA that they make a not actually serious offer to.

I don't understand why they do this.

[SwainZag]

 

So another FA that they make a not actually serious offer to.
I don't understand why they do this.

 

4 years $80-85M for Donaldson is in all reality a pretty serious and hefty offer.  

[tony&rodney]

No one in the Twins front office will ever confirm an offer if JD signs elsewhere, but any offer below $100 million is a real sign that the Twins are NOT serious about signing Donaldson. That would be sad and mean that possibilities for trades are also slim, unless the exchange is ridiculously safe or in favor of the Twins, similar to the Odorizzi trade. That turned out well but it should be agreed upon by most as a safe trade. I'm ok with JD signing for a team that is his choice or overpays. The idea that the Twins play around with numbers like $80-85 million is not being competitive. These were numbers predicted in October. The deals paid out throughout the offseason have changed that prediction or we could have signed Cole for $220 million. Is this a sort of Rubicon for the Falvine boys? I'm skeptical of all reports until the deals are done. 

[tony&rodney]

 

4 years $80-85M for Donaldson is in all reality a pretty serious and hefty offer.  

 

Not in 2020. It is not competitive.

[Mr. Brooks]

4 years $80-85M for Donaldson is in all reality a pretty serious and hefty offer.

Relative to what? MLB Traderumors offseason projections? Fun to read, perhaps, but completely meaningless.

 

It's not even the top offer, even though we're already behind Atlanta and Washington for preferred destination.

 

Making an offer that's not going to be enough isn't a serious offer, even if it's "a lot of money".

[howeda7]

 

4 years $80-85M for Donaldson is in all reality a pretty serious and hefty offer.  

It may have been when we made 3 weeks ago. If it's currently 20% below the best offer, it's no longer serious. Either pony up or walk away.

[PseudoSABR]

 

Relative to what? MLB Traderumors offseason projections? Fun to read, perhaps, but completely meaningless.

It's not even the top offer, even though we're already behind Atlanta and Washington for preferred destination.

Making an offer that's not going to be enough isn't a serious offer, even if it's "a lot of money".

If the measure of a serious offer is the top offer, only one team can have a serious offer? That's a ridiculous standard.  It sounds like only one team has a higher offer than us.  

 

Given that the other 27 teams aren't offering as much as the Twins, I'd say that their offer is indeed serious.  

 

I don't mean to suggest that the Twins shouldn't offer more, they should, but come on, devoting 85 million to a mid-thirties player is serious, even if they don't win the bidding.

[tony&rodney]

Would offering Cole 6/150 have been a serious offer?

[Mr. Brooks]

If the measure of a serious offer is the top offer, only one team can have a serious offer? That's a ridiculous standard. It sounds like only one team has a higher offer than us.

 

Given that the other 27 teams aren't offering as much as the Twins, I'd say that their offer is indeed serious.

 

I don't mean to suggest that the Twins shouldn't offer more, they should, but come on, devoting 85 million to a mid-thirties player is serious, even if they don't win the bidding.

The Twins offer has to be the highest because it's not one of his preferred destinations.

 

Atlanta can offer a bit less because he played there and wants to return, and Washington can offer a bit less because he has family in Virginia.

 

They aren't "devoting" $85M to Donaldson any more than I'm devoting $85M to him, because it has zero chance of being accepted.

[PseudoSABR]

 

The Twins offer has to be the highest because it's not one of his preferred destinations.

Atlanta can offer a bit less because he played there and wants to return, and Washington can offer a bit less because he has family in Virginia.

They aren't "devoting" $85M to Donaldson any more than I'm devoting $85M to him, because it has zero chance of being accepted.

So they have to have won the bidding in order to be serious.  

 

And I'll just add that obviously Donaldson's camp think the Twins are serious as they remain in "near daily" contact.

[Otto von Ballpark]

4 years $80-85M for Donaldson is in all reality a pretty serious and hefty offer.

MLBTR projected 3/75, and most FA are beating those projections this offseason, and arguably a 4/80-85 offer is not as good as 3/75.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I'd say an offer can be "serious" but still have fairly low odds of actually landing the player, which is the more important measure to me. That seems to be the MO of this FO. At least for contracts beyond $26 mil. Darvish, Wheeler, Bumgarner, and Ryu.

 

Maybe this offer to Donaldson will break the pattern, although that report from Doogie doesn't give me much confidence right now.

[ewen21]

So they have to have won the bidding in order to be serious.

 

And I'll just add that obviously Donaldson's camp think the Twins are serious as they remain in "near daily" contact.

Let me compliment you on your point in the first sentence. Mr. Brooks also made a good point by saying we need to offer more than Atlanta since it appears to be his personal preference.

 

Therein lies the conundrum for us. We much more often than not will need to be the best offer out there, and that is unfortunate, because this deal Donaldson wants doesn’t make a whole lot of sense. It makes even less sense for ATL and WSH because they don’t have the DH option to fall back on when he gets hobbled (and that is coming, just a question of when....year one? Could be at his age)

[Brandon]

I also got from that report the Twins haven't been asked to submit their final and best offer. I imagine they would go higher to win the bidding. If they are at 85 million then 90 or 95 would be tops. Of the three teams, Atlanta, DC, and Twins, it looks as though the Twins have the most financial flexibility to sign him...they just need to meet his asking price or be closer to it.

[Mr. Brooks]

So they have to have won the bidding in order to be serious.

 

And I'll just add that obviously Donaldson's camp think the Twins are serious as they remain in "near daily" contact.

Yes, in this case they have to be the high bidder to have any chance, because of his preference for the other two teams.

Every situation is different, that is the reality of this one.

 

They have zero chance of winning this one without the high bid. Making an offer with zero chance of being accepted is not a serious offer.

 

I don't understand how that's controversial.

 

EDIT TO ADD:

They don't have to win the bidding to be serious. They could have the high bid and still lose out. But coming in below the high bid gives them zero chance and wasn't serious.

[drivlikejehu]

 

Yes, in this case they have to be the high bidder to have any chance, because of his preference for the other two teams.
Every situation is different, that is the reality of this one.

They have zero chance of winning this one without the high bid. Making an offer with zero chance of being accepted is not a serious offer.

I don't understand how that's controversial.

 

It's not "controversial," it's just a false statement. Here's an easy proof:

 

1. Before free agency, Player X is projected by various internet sites to get a $75 million contract

2. On day 1 of free agency, Team 1 offers Player X an $80 million contract, but the player waits for other offers

3. On day 90 of free agency, Team 2 offers Player X $90 million and he accepts on the spot.

 

According to you, Team 1's offer was not "serious" because it's significantly lower than Team 2's offer. But in reality, it was fully intended to be a winning offer, and only due to subsequent events was it unsuccessful.

 

This is not a commentary on Donaldson, but just to point out that you're wrong in how you define a "serious offer."

[Otto von Ballpark]

1. Before free agency, Player X is projected by various internet sites to get a $75 million contract

2. On day 1 of free agency, Team 1 offers Player X an $80 million contract,

Worth keeping in mind that's 3/75 vs 4/80-85, in this case. It's not entirely clear that the Twins offer is as good as the projected contract.

[Mr. Brooks]

It's not "controversial," it's just a false statement. Here's an easy proof:

 

1. Before free agency, Player X is projected by various internet sites to get a $75 million contract

2. On day 1 of free agency, Team 1 offers Player X an $80 million contract, but the player waits for other offers

3. On day 90 of free agency, Team 2 offers Player X $90 million and he accepts on the spot.

 

According to you, Team 1's offer was not "serious" because it's significantly lower than Team 2's offer. But in reality, it was fully intended to be a winning offer, and only due to subsequent events was it unsuccessful.

 

This is not a commentary on Donaldson, but just to point out that you're wrong in how you define a "serious offer."

I don't believe for a second that the Twins think their offer is the highest.

 

It may have been a serious offer at one time, I'm not familiar with the timeline of when the 3 teams made their offers. It no longer is.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

7. Atlanta is currently $7mm over their highest opening day payroll ever.

 

 

Of the three teams, Atlanta, DC, and Twins, it looks as though the Twins have the most financial flexibility to sign him...

 

Not to be that guy, but...

 

Per Forbes list last year, Atlanta had $75 mil more annual revenue than the Twins. They also had $71 mil in profit, in a year with a $118 mil opening day payroll (compared to the Twins, who only had $14 mil profit on $128 mil opening day payroll).

 

I'm not saying those numbers are gospel, but I don't think it's correct to suggest the Braves are really more constrained at a $129 mil payroll than the Twins at $116 mil. That doesn't necessarily mean they'll shell out for Donaldson, but they absolutely could afford to, just as much if not more than the Twins.

[PseudoSABR]

 

It may have been a serious offer at one time, 

Well if we keep moving the goal posts you'll be right at some point. 

 

If you can concede that the Twins made the original offer seriously, it seems like the whole "serious offer" issue is moot.  They didn't win, but they were serious (worst case scenario).

[Otwins]

My feeling is the $110 million request by JD is much higher than anyone has offered. Washington usually defers money to their free agents so it is hard to say what exactly their offer is.  Twins do not want to keep bidding because they have not asked for final bids. So everyone sits and waits. Time to watch basketball, football or paint dry.

[Doctor Gast]

The point that Donaldson didn`t choose Atlanta on Monday shows they gave a serious offer

[Mr. Brooks]

Well if we keep moving the goal posts you'll be right at some point.

 

If you can concede that the Twins made the original offer seriously, it seems like the whole "serious offer" issue is moot. They didn't win, but they were serious (worst case scenario).

No, I can't concede that, because I don't know the timeline of when each team made their offer.

I simply said it's possible that it was at one time.

 

Either way, it no longer is, so it's not moot. As far as I can tell from reports, their offer still stands, and it's not a serious offer at this point.

[tony&rodney]

Perhaps Donaldson wants to let two weeks, or another period of time, pass before he asks teams for their final and best offer. We don't know his thoughts any better than we know what is being offered.

We really don't know what teams profits are any more than I know your net worth.

Either way, each team does operate with a budget and projects expenses forward for planning purposes.

 

All the teams involved in Josh Donaldson have the money. The only real question is the level of their interest. "Serious interest" can easily be defended because they contacted or responded to JD in the first place. This is like stopping at an open house or calling someone about a car, albeit at far higher numbers. The semantics of "serious" becomes open to discussion when an offer is clearly not going to be accepted because of price. We actually do not know those numbers either, not at all. 

 

The frustration of many Twins fans is that our team has fallen short in their attempts to add to the team.

Given the current state of available players, Donaldson clearly: improves the team, the money is there, and his contract will not (unlike maybe Cole at $350 million) restrict future budgets.

 

Serious has malleable limits. For me, it is - "c'mon, are you serious?"  Just make the highest offer and force him to decide. 

[In My La Z boy]

I wish I knew if he really doesn't want to play here? How aggressive should we be at this point? And if he really doesn't want to play here - and we out bid everyone by $20M and get him - will this be a good decision on our part? Will he be a happy warrior or will he be a malcontent in times of duress? Will he hate his existence in Mpls? It is a long season and 4 years is a long time. Not sure I want someone who doesn't want to be here. Sounds like a recipe for trouble. If he were a stud pitcher I would feel differently I think. He seems to be a want not a need. I say we turn our attention back to the need - get the Berrios extension done, and pull the trigger on a trade for impact pitching.