Chasing Madison Bumgarner Thread

[lukeduke1980]

 

I don't like paying a premium for what someone did four years ago. I'm much more interested in four years from now...

I would take overpaying anyone for 4 extra years if he won us a ring next year.  In all seriousness I would think they would try to front load a contract line one for Bumgarner or Donaldson before guys like Berrios and Sano get paid.

[akmanak]

As long as takes 4 million a year for 2 years with a 3rd year options we should be solid....

[Westcoast2]

I've watched him for years.  Mad Bum is who the Twins need.  He can be counted on going 7 or 8 quality innings every 5 days and he is a good presence in the clubhouse.  The Giants should have locked him up two years ago to an extension, but didn't because they didn't want to exceed the luxury tax limit.  Their failure to do so is a great opportunity for the Twins!

[drivlikejehu]

There's a decent chance that Bumgarner is just an ordinary #3/4 starter at this point. He did throw a lot of innings last year, but it's not an easy call to allocate 15% of the team's payroll for 4 years to a mid-rotation starter with a lot of mileage. 

 

I'd rather have Ryu for 3 years than Bumgarner for 4. Though who knows, maybe both will get more years than that.

[sweetmusicviola16]

Thankfully the Rangers overpaid for Jordan Lyles before we did.

 

A team that is serious about a WS run should not be spending much time considering the Jordan Lyles types.

[sweetmusicviola16]

 

 

 

I'd rather have Ryu for 3 years than Bumgarner for 4.

 

 

Same here.

 

[DocBauer]

The Pirates have a new GM and are probably in at least some form of re-build mode. They also have a new manager in Shelton who is very familiar with the players/prospects in the Twins organization. Why do I keep getting the feeling the Pirates will trade the disappointing Archer to Minnesota for a small but fair package. The Twins would love it as they believe Johnson can right him and get him back to his old self. Not an ACE, but a legitimate #2-3 power pitcher.

[sweetmusicviola16]

 

The Pirates have a new GM and are probably in at least some form of re-build mode. They also have a new manager in Shelton who is very familiar with the players/prospects in the Twins organization. Why do I keep getting the feeling the Pirates will trade the disappointing Archer to Minnesota for a small but fair package. The Twins would love it as they believe Johnson can right him and get him back to his old self. Not an ACE, but a legitimate #2-3 power pitcher.

What do you see as a "fair package"? The Pirates bought high, but Archer has not had good results in quite some time. I'm thinking a prospect in our 10-20 range and a solid guy from the rookie levels. Blayne Enlow and ???

 

For the right price I'd like Archer for our #4 or #5 SP. I still want a major front end signing.

 

To add to an Archer deal, what about trying to swing it with Josh Bell added for 1B?

[Jham]

Glad to hear this. I suggest low years, high AAV. Just do it!

I never understand this. Why? Just get rid of stupid nonsensical organizational processes like "every season is independent and carries its own budget". How does paying more for less make any sense in the world? The players favor more years. If you plan and budget for more than 1 stinking season you have more flexibility, not less, inflation suggests that the value of the contract decreases over time AND the interest that accumulates that you can reinvest over more time means more money too. Look at added years as interest free financing, not a an anchor.

 

It's why lottery winners are offered $100 mil over their life but only $38 mil lump sum, eg.

[notoriousgod71]

 

How can the front office claim Bumgarner is an impact pitcher when he basically performed the same as Pineda this year?

 

Plus by all accounts he's a huge jerk who has a history of getting into conflicts with players of colors.  Why anyone would want to add a potential clubhouse cancer to a team with great chemistry is beyond me.

 

Who would you rather have for $30 million a year, Strasburg or Bumgarner and an "elite" reliver like Addison Reed?

 

Miraculously, the Giants were able to overcome all of this to win three championships. But yes, obviously, most of us would rather have Strasburg than Bumgarner and Addison Reed.

[DocBauer]

What do you see as a "fair package"? The Pirates bought high, but Archer has not had good results in quite some time. I'm thinking a prospect in our 10-20 range and a solid guy from the rookie levels. Blayne Enlow and ???

 

For the right price I'd like Archer for our #4 or #5 SP. I still want a major front end signing.

 

To add to an Archer deal, what about trying to swing it with Josh Bell added for 1B?

While it is a hunch I have, to be clear, I'd only see a trade like this as the Twins would see Archer reverting back to his old self and joining Berrios and Odorizzi as a top 3 SP. The old Archer...again, not an ACE...would be that. If he were speculated as being a 4th or 5th SP, there are 4-5 guys on the market that would only cost $ I would bring in rather than trade prospects.

 

As to what I would deem fair trade value? I always hate that game because for one thing, it depends on the other team, their needs, and do they want close to ready or further away but with more potential? They will want to recoup their losses in their side of the Archer trade, help with a rebuild, but know they can't ask for the moon after a bad season. I would say something like Gordon, Rooker and Colina or Enlow.

[Greglw3]

 

And which free agent that they can afford will be the best over there next three or four, in your mind?

Strasburg.  They actually can afford him, aren’t they only around 80 some million now? They could pay him 5/150, still lower than Mauer’s contract but a huge, much needed asset at this point.  My mission would be, just get him, period, whatever it takes.

[SwainZag]

 

I never understand this. Why? Just get rid of stupid nonsensical organizational processes like "every season is independent and carries its own budget". How does paying more for less make any sense in the world? The players favor more years. If you plan and budget for more than 1 stinking season you have more flexibility, not less, inflation suggests that the value of the contract decreases over time AND the interest that accumulates that you can reinvest over more time means more money too. Look at added years as interest free financing, not a an anchor.

It's why lottery winners are offered $100 mil over their life but only $38 mil lump sum, eg.

 

Because for an organization it's just good business.  Paying a little bit more for a 2 year deal over a 5/6 year deal certainly has it's benefits.  The player you are signing today could be a very different player 3-4 years down the line.  An injury in Year 1 of a 5-6 year deal could be catastrophic if that player never returns to form.  

 

Lottery is different because $1 today is worth more than $1 tomorrow, it's time value of money and there are a lot of tax implications on when you take the money.  Totally different animal than contracts.

[Twins33]

Strasburg.  They actually can afford him, aren’t they only around 80 some million now? They could pay him 5/150, still lower than Mauer’s contract but a huge, much needed asset at this point.  My mission would be, just get him, period, whatever it takes.

I think they are at around 65 million before paying the arb guys.

 

I agree they should go after Stras but I don’t think it happens.

[sweetmusicviola16]

 

I think they are at around 65 million before paying the arb guys.

I agree they should go after Stras but I don’t think it happens.

Strasburg would be my #1  choice too. Perhaps he is the FO's #1 choice too, I get the impression that we aren't in on him though. But the problem is if they waited for Strasburg and declined on all of the others and don't get Strasburg or the others b/c they are gone then we get nobody. Ofr maybe Strasburg has already told them it would take 50 mil a year for him to play here. We have almost no idea how all of these things play out. Worse case is we'd have to circle back and make a trade.

[Mike Sixel]

Strasburg. They actually can afford him, aren’t they only around 80 some million now? They could pay him 5/150, still lower than Mauer’s contract but a huge, much needed asset at this point. My mission would be, just get him, period, whatever it takes.

He's getting at least six years...

 

Do you think they will pay that? They can literally sure any player, but I'm trying to be realistic

[tvagle]

 

The Pirates have a new GM and are probably in at least some form of re-build mode. They also have a new manager in Shelton who is very familiar with the players/prospects in the Twins organization. Why do I keep getting the feeling the Pirates will trade the disappointing Archer to Minnesota for a small but fair package. The Twins would love it as they believe Johnson can right him and get him back to his old self. Not an ACE, but a legitimate #2-3 power pitcher.

 

I might have looked a little bigger than just Archer in my BluePrint with the same thinking

[tvagle]

 

What do you see as a "fair package"? The Pirates bought high, but Archer has not had good results in quite some time. I'm thinking a prospect in our 10-20 range and a solid guy from the rookie levels. Blayne Enlow and ???

 

For the right price I'd like Archer for our #4 or #5 SP. I still want a major front end signing.

 

To add to an Archer deal, what about trying to swing it with Josh Bell added for 1B?

 

You've been ninja'd in my BluePrint

 

TWINS GET:

 

Bell

Archer

Marte

 

TWINS SEND:

 

Sano - can do after signing Rendon ($33M-$35M AAV)...or Bargain shopping on Donaldson ($25M AAV)

Kirilloff

Enlow

Gordon

Rortvedt

Cave

Thorpe

[tvagle]

 

He's getting at least six years...

Do you think they will pay that? They can literally sure any player, but I'm trying to be realistic

 

Stras will take an overpay of historic proportions to sign with the Twins

 

6 years / $200M - $33.33M AAV

Opt out after 3rd, 4th, 5th years

 

 

[sweetmusicviola16]

 

He's getting at least six years...

Do you think they will pay that? They can literally sure any player, but I'm trying to be realistic

Do we stand a chance if we offered 6/210?

[tvagle]

 

Do we stand a chance if we offered 6/210?

 

May not stand a chance if we offered 6/300...but if you want the guy go get the guy

 

Offer him: $40M - $35M - $35M - $30M - $30M - $30M and a house on lake Minnetonka

 

[Jham]

Because for an organization it's just good business. Paying a little bit more for a 2 year deal over a 5/6 year deal certainly has it's benefits. The player you are signing today could be a very different player 3-4 years down the line. An injury in Year 1 of a 5-6 year deal could be catastrophic if that player never returns to form.

 

Lottery is different because $1 today is worth more than $1 tomorrow, it's time value of money and there are a lot of tax implications on when you take the money. Totally different animal than contracts.

You're not getting this and you're way off on your understanding of both economics and contracts.

 

I'll put it in simpler terms. If Bumgarner gets a GUARANTEED offer of 4 years, 112 mil (28 aav), how much more do you have to pay him to accept a 3 year deal? In 3 years will he be more valuable or less? And if he got hurt, year 4 would be worth 0.

 

So let's say you convince him that in 4 years he'll still be better than a $12 million pitcher (risky) and that he signs for 3 years $100 million. (aav $33mil). Let's say your nightmare scenario occurs and he's injured year 1. Wouldn't you want the flexibility of spreading that loss out over an extra season?

 

What if under that scenario he said he'd sign for 3 $100mil and throw in a 4th year for just $12mil? 4th year starts to look better.

 

Now what if he demands the $12 mil 4th year and the only other alternative is that you don't get him at all?

 

That's why pitchers always go for the extra year. (unless there's QO involved)

[SwainZag]

 

You're not getting this and you're way off on your understanding of both economics and contracts.

I'll put it in simpler terms. If Bumgarner gets a GUARANTEED offer of 4 years, 112 mil (28 aav), how much more do you have to pay him to accept a 3 year deal? In 3 years will he be more valuable or less? And if he got hurt, year 4 would be worth 0.

So let's say you convince him that in 4 years he'll still be better than a $12 million pitcher (risky) and that he signs for 3 years $100 million. (aav $33mil). Let's say your nightmare scenario occurs and he's injured year 1. Wouldn't you want the flexibility of spreading that loss out over an extra season?

What if under that scenario he said he'd sign for 3 $100mil and throw in a 4th year for just $12mil? 4th year starts to look better.

Now what if he demands the $12 mil 4th year and the only other alternative is that you don't get him at all?

That's why pitchers always go for the extra year. (unless there's QO involved)

 

How many contracts out there is the last year drastically less than the rest of the contract?  It rarely ever happens that way.  You see front loaded contracts from time to time, but they are usually backloaded.  Which pitcher is taking a 33-33-33-12?  I'm guessing he would rather just bet on himself and take the 3/100 over 4/112 set up that way.  

 

[tvagle]

Wasn't going to post this but it took too much work not to...ignore if you don't like Math

 

Not to get to Mathy but here's two options for let's say a player gets 6/$200M contract

 

Read on to find out if a front loaded contract would be worth it for a player in the long run

 

ASSumptions:

 

50% each year goes to the Trumpster

No State Taxes will be calculated...it's just too random a variable

Most of these guys have made enough money that they will just invest the whole contract amount

Market return will be 5% each year...and if these guys don't have advisors that get that in today's market they should look for another advisor

 

Option #1 - Equal payments (with rounding)

 

Each Year Gross - $33M

TakeHome - $16.5M

Interest Earned Year1 - $.825M

Bank Account

Year1 - $17.38M

Year2 - $35.52M

Year3 - $54.62M

Year4 - $74.67M

Year5 - $95.73M

Year6 - $117.84M

 

Option #2 - $40 - 35 - 35 - 30 - 30 - 30 (with rounding)

 

Year1 Gross - $40M

TakeHome - $20M

Interest Earned Year1 - $1M

 

Year2 and 3 Gross - $35M

TakeHome - $17.5M

 

Year4,5,6 Gross - $30

TakeHome - $15M

 

Bank Account

Year1 - $21.00M

Year2 - $40.43M

Year3 - $60.82M

Year4 - $79.61M

Year5 - $99.34M

Year6 - $120.06M

 

DON'T LOOK BELOW HERE IF YOU'RE ALLERGIC TO MATH

 

YR1Bank = TakeHomeYR1 * 1.05

YR2Bank = (YR1Bank + TakeHomeYr2) * 1.05

YR3Bank = (YR2Bank + TakeHomeYr3) * 1.05

YR2Bank = (YR3Bank + TakeHomeYr4) * 1.05

YR2Bank = (YR4Bank + TakeHomeYr5) * 1.05

YR2Bank = (YR5Bank + TakeHomeYr6) * 1.05

[Jham]

How many contracts out there is the last year drastically less than the rest of the contract? It rarely ever happens that way. You see front loaded contracts from time to time, but they are usually backloaded. Which pitcher is taking a 33-33-33-12? I'm guessing he would rather just bet on himself and take the 3/100 over 4/112 set up that way.

That's my point! three years 100 mil and a fourth year for 12 is $112 mil. Just go with the $112 mil for 4 years and actually have a chance at signing him. Going fewer years at higher AAV isn't even worth taking about. There's a reason that NEVER works with UFAs.

[Mike Sixel]

Do we stand a chance if we offered 6/210?

My guess is that is enough, I don't believe this team believes it's budget is that high.

[sweetmusicviola16]

 

My guess is that is enough, I don't believe this team believes it's budget is that high.

I agree of course. But Rosario comes off by a mid season replacement. Cron is gone now, with a rookie replacement. Cruz is soon gone. Odo may not return. Avila gets replaced by Jeffers. That's roughly 55 mil off the books.

 

Odo needs replacing or resigned. Maybe by then Graterol is ready. Lewis, Kiriloff, Larnach are ready by 2021 if they ever will be. Its a risk, but we can handle one mega salary for a potential ace imo.

[USAFChief]

Uh-oh.

 

LENIII has a "Twins pitching plan A might have to change" article up in the STrib.

 

Someone's laying some groundwork for the big disappointment?

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Uh-oh.

LENIII has a "Twins pitching plan A might have to change" article up in the STrib.

Someone's laying some groundwork for the big disappointment?

“With Stephen Strasburg and Gerrit Cole each on a path to land $250 million deals, the Twins were focused on the next tier that included Wheeler, Madison Bumgarner and Hyun-Jin Ryu. Wheeler will sign with the Phillies for $118 million over five years, the same time frame the Twins offered. Ryu, whom the Twins were interested in out of South Korea before he signed with the Dodgers in 2013, prefers to remain on the West Coast. Bumgarner, at one time a dominant lefthander and a World Series legend, is receiving a lot of interest after a bit of a rebound season for the Giants.

 

“If the Twins don’t land Bumgarner, the next group includes Homer Bailey, Tanner Roark, Wade Miley, Brett Anderson........”

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

That's my point! three years 100 mil and a fourth year for 12 is $112 mil. Just go with the $112 mil for 4 years and actually have a chance at signing him. Going fewer years at higher AAV isn't even worth taking about. There's a reason that NEVER works with UFAs.

If Bumgarner is as washed up as you and others are saying his is, then there’s no need to worry about any of this. He’ll be happy to accept what he’s offered.