Weather for the Home Opener

[ashbury]

It sure beats reading the screeds of know-nothings and conspiracy theorists.

We're still talking about weather forecasting, I hope?

[scottz]

 

I just want to say I greatly appreciate the information posted by a trained professional. These posts are on a par with Heezy's posts about orthopedic medicine. It sure beats reading the screeds of know-nothings and conspiracy theorists.

Thanks! However, Heezy's posts are significantly better.

[MMMordabito]

 

Thanks! However, Heezy's posts are significantly better.

 

But getting them is just a silver lining to something bad happening .... I don't look forward to reading them, but I enjoy reading them when they're written.

[scottz]

Everything continues to point to a decent to possibly lovely opening day. But spring is a time where the warm air masses to the south are battling against the remnants of cold air masses to the north, and those battles make spring forecasting really tough to be certain, even as we get ever closer to 3/28. But for now, let's see what we've got.

 

Today's forecasts in bold. Yesterday's in (parentheses).

All forecasts are for 1PM CDT on 3/28.

 

GFS - Even warmer! 59 (56) with 60s showing in Iowa.

FV3 - Not as confident as GFS. Down quite a bit from yesterday with 46 (55).

 

So much inconsistency in the models, and as I flip back and forth to other model runs, the only thing clear is that nothing is clear. It still looks like some sort of low pressure center will develop to the west (in the Rockies somewhere) around the 28th. That puts us east of the center of the low with south winds. (The circulation around the center of a low in the northern hemisphere is counterclockwise. So if a low is to your west, you get south winds.) That warmth can only go so far because coming south on the other side of the low is cold air and north winds. Again, it isn't clear yet, but Thursday's game still seems OK based on today's runs. Saturday and Sunday? Hard to say if it will be unplayable or unpleasant. BUT THIS POST IS ABOUT THE OPENER.

 

Ensemble USA - This ensemble is starting to tighten up some. No agreement yet, but all parties are coming to the middle some. Whatever the middle ends up being. Coldest temp is pretty consistent at 36 (35). The warmest model drops a bit - into the 50s for (I think) the first time since I started this - 58 (63). The mean stubbornly hangs on to 49 (49).

Ensemble Euro - The bottom end of Euro's model comes in at 37 (40). The max adds a tick back to 65 (64) on the warm end. As I suspected after yesterday's big jump, the mean dropped a little today 51 (53), though not as much as I thought it would. The 90% percentile estimate for max temp drops into the 50s at 57 (61), and the 10% percentile estimate also drops to 43 (46). Euro's main run falls a bit as well 57 (60).

 

One week from tomorrow. Still too far out to trust anything. But hope for good weather on home openers is good.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Given how this month started, it's kind of hard to believe we might get good home opener weather.

 

I'm. So. Done. With. Winter.

 

Carrying a 30 lb toddler the past few weeks has been quite the... adventure. Mostly terrifying, but I'll go with "adventure" for diplomacy's sake.

 

My personal favorite was the moment I slammed the door on a 4,500 lb SUV and the entire car literally slid a foot sideways... thankfully, away from me, because I was standing on glare ice, holding a toddler with absolutely no ability to move.

[scottz]

 

Given how this month started, it's kind of hard to believe we might get good home opener weather.

 

I'm. So. Done. With. Winter.

As. If. On. Cue.

 

Are we done with winter? Will the weather for the opener be good? Man, it's stuff like this that makes people hate meteorologists. The 06Z run today picks up a bit of the cold air mass trying to fight it's way south. And as the warm air from the south tries to move north on the east side of low pressure, it rises as it moves above the colder air in place. And when it rises, it cools, and the water vapor in it condenses. Clouds form, and maybe we get some gentle showers. Today, I'll add a couple of precip panels.

 

Today's forecasts in bold. Yesterday's in (parentheses).

All forecasts are for 1PM CDT on 3/28.

GFS - Big, big change from yesterday. Big change. 46 (59). It looks horrible because yesterday's was so optimistic. But that warm optimism followed by a big drop is pretty in line with what happened the last two days of FV3. Speaking of which...

FV3 - Pretty close to yesterday. 48 (46).

 

On the precipitation panels that I'm adding, you can see how both models show a little bit of rain as the warm air moves north. These panels show 6 hour (between 1PM and 7PM) average precipitation rates in mm/hr, so this isn't an obvious washout or anything. But it's there. Don't read too much into this other than showers happen sometimes in spring. The 12Z model runs for both GFS and FV3 show less precip during this 6 hour period. Also don't read too much into because it's the first one I showed you. Also, the blue and red dashed lines are basically the markers of cold and warm air, as you might have guessed. The rain-snow line typically ends up being right around the 540 line. Which is why Rapid City shows blue/snow. It's on the wrong side of that line. If winter is over over, we would really like to say on the warm side of that line. Saturday's 12Z FV3 shows the 510 line right through the Twin Cities. GFS says 528. Both models suggest Saturday snow. BUT THIS POST IS ABOUT THE OPENER.

 

Ensemble USA - A couple of models jumping to warm while the rest continue yesterday's trend of coming closer to agreement. Coldest model run is 39 (36). The warmest model hops back up to 63 (58). The mean slides back up to 51 (49).

Ensemble Euro - Euro's cold model warms all the way to 44 (37). The warmest is a really warm 68 (65). Overall warming in all the models as the mean jumps up to 57 (51). The 90% percentile estimate for max temp climbs all the way to 65 (57), and the 10% percentile estimate rockets to 50 (43). Euro's main run also moves warm to 61 (57).

 

So where do we stand? I still think that the home opener will be a decent day. Maybe becoming more cloudy as the day goes on. And then a stupid weekend of too cold for baseball with some snow. Still lots of time between now and then. We'll see.

[nicksaviking]

Recant or ye shall be dubbed a blasphemous witch!

[scottz]

 

Recant or ye shall be dubbed a blasphemous witch!

But I weigh less than a duck!

[scottz]

Back to warm. That's my analysis for today. Back to warm.

 

Today's forecasts in bold. Yesterday's in (parentheses).

All forecasts are for 1PM CDT on 3/28.

GFS - Maybe yesterday was the pessimistic outlier. Maybe tomorrow will point to today as the outlier. The models - they are confused. But for now, warming. 54 (46). Look at those 70s pushing into South Dakota.

FV3 - Warming. 55 (48). Look at those 70s pushing into South Dakota.

On the precipitation panels, note how the center of low pressure is pretty close between these two models. So at least for today, at least for this run, they agree.

 

Ensemble USA - Warming. Warming on the cold end. 47 (39). Warming on the warm end. 67 (63). Warming at the mean. 54 (51). The models in this ensemble all have pretty good agreement for the next 4-5 days. After that, confusion reins on the 28th. Then, they all agree it'll get colder. Take a look.

 

It's not uncommon to see this and it is to be expected - the farther away, the harder to predict (short of just using historical averages). But it's sort of amusing to watch how rapidly things diverge. All because of low pressure coming out of the Rockies, and going...somewhere.

Ensemble Euro - The coldest model cools. 41 (44). As does the warmest. 65 (68). So does the mean, slightly. 56 (57). The 90% percentile estimate for max cools also. 63 (65). And the 10% percentile estimate, too 49 (50). But the main run? That thing heats up. 65 (61).

 

Where to end up with a forecast? Honestly, there is so much warmth in this run overall that I just don't believe it. But this is also the first time that all the models kind of had aspects of the same thing (warming) occurring at the same time, so maybe I should believe it. I'll stick with a variation of what I've been saying. Thursday = good for baseball. Saturday-Sunday = no good for baseball.

 

I had a professor tell me that he didn't truly trust anything more than 5 days out. He also said there is a certain amount of art in the science of reading trends in the various models longer than 5 days out, and some forecasters get very good at it. I sure will be curious to see how this all plays out.

[Dave The Dastardly]

"The models - they are confused."

 

I always wondered why they walk so funny down that runway.

 

 

Saw three flights of geese headed north this morning and a coon ripped down my wife's bird feeder last night before breaking into my grill and licking off last summer's grease. Counted ten deer in the backyard this morning, sleeping in. Based on those sure signs of spring I predict south winds, lots of antacids and hangovers for the Home Opener.

 

Oh, and 55 degrees.

 

I am one with nature.

[zenser]

 

Pro tip: If you're going, get seats on the third base side. 

Are all the seats on the 1B line in the shade?  I am looking at tickets about 10 rows up in 104. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Pro tip: If you're going, get seats on the third base side. 

 

 

Are all the seats on the 1B line in the shade?  I am looking at tickets about 10 rows up in 104. 

 

The Twins have some "sun study" videos on their website, which demonstrate the sun/shade effects on Target Field at various times of year/day:

 

http://minnesota.twins.mlb.com/min/ballpark/sun_study.jsp

 

Here's a direct link to the April 1st video:

 

http://mediadownloads.mlb.com/mlbam/2014/07/20/mlbtv_34641123_1200K.mp4

[zenser]

 

The Twins have some "sun study" videos on their website, which demonstrate the sun/shade effects on Target Field at various times of year/day:

 

http://minnesota.twins.mlb.com/min/ballpark/sun_study.jsp

 

Here's a direct link to the April 1st video:

 

http://mediadownloads.mlb.com/mlbam/2014/07/20/mlbtv_34641123_1200K.mp4

Awesome!!  Thank you!  I was looking for something like this.

[RatherBeGolfing]

 

The Twins have some "sun study" videos on their website, which demonstrate the sun/shade effects on Target Field at various times of year/day:

 

http://minnesota.twins.mlb.com/min/ballpark/sun_study.jsp

 

Here's a direct link to the April 1st video:

 

http://mediadownloads.mlb.com/mlbam/2014/07/20/mlbtv_34641123_1200K.mp4

 

Honestly had no idea they had this resource. Pretty cool actually, thanks for posting

[scottz]

Well, life gets in the way of forecasting sometimes. This will be my last forecast for the opener as tomorrow morning I hop on a plane with my family to Seoul. I'll miss the opener, but I will get to see the NC Dinos take on the Doosan Bears. Go Bears! Or Dinos!

 

Today's forecasts in bold.

All forecasts are for 1PM CDT on 3/28.

GFS - The warm possibilities discussed last time look like it's moving ahead to Wednesday, cooling a bit on Thursday. GFS keeps any precip away for Thursday, and then pushes the weekend precip farther south. If you're going on the weekend, layer up. Have some layers on Thursday, too. Thursday's forecast at 1PM is 45. 

FV3 - Looking really similar to GFS, including on through the weekend with precip confined to our neighbors to the south. Just what they need. 44

Ensemble USA - The same tune is being sung by this ensemble. Warming the day before the opener, then getting cooler after that. Coldest model for Thursday says 41. Warmest model says 50. The mean lines up with GFS and FV3 at 45. 

Ensemble Euro - The coldest model keeps it cold at 38. The warmest model is 51. If you remember, last week was still showing the warmest at 65, so I'd say it's pretty clear it is not going to be a beautiful day. The mean? Yeah, that's right. 45. The main run says 48.

 

Well, that's it. Enjoy your 45 degree weather on Thursday (let's hope for upper 40s). I hope you've enjoyed this little exercise.

 

Did we win yet?!

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Well, life gets in the way of forecasting sometimes. This will be my last forecast for the opener as tomorrow morning I hop on a plane with my family to Seoul. I'll miss the opener, but I will get to see the NC Dinos take on the Doosan Bears. Go Bears! Or Dinos!

 

Today's forecasts in bold.

All forecasts are for 1PM CDT on 3/28.

GFS - The warm possibilities discussed last time look like it's moving ahead to Wednesday, cooling a bit on Thursday. GFS keeps any precip away for Thursday, and then pushes the weekend precip farther south. If you're going on the weekend, layer up. Have some layers on Thursday, too. Thursday's forecast at 1PM is 45.

FV3 - Looking really similar to GFS, including on through the weekend with precip confined to our neighbors to the south. Just what they need. 44

Ensemble USA - The same tune is being sung by this ensemble. Warming the day before the opener, then getting cooler after that. Coldest model for Thursday says 41. Warmest model says 50. The mean lines up with GFS and FV3 at 45.

Ensemble Euro - The coldest model keeps it cold at 38. The warmest model is 51. If you remember, last week was still showing the warmest at 65, so I'd say it's pretty clear it is not going to be a beautiful day. The mean? Yeah, that's right. 45. The main run says 48.

 

Well, that's it. Enjoy your 45 degree weather on Thursday (let's hope for upper 40s). I hope you've enjoyed this little exercise.

 

Did we win yet?!

2019-03-25.png

2019-03-25 precip.png

Thanks for doing this. Awesome work!

[yarnivek1972]

Too bad the opener isn’t tomorrow. 65 and sunny.

[Aichiman]

Saturday's weather is supposed to be colder than a witches ... in a brass ....  While Friday is just regular cold but passable.  Any chance of playing Saturday's game on Friday? 

[Number3]

Ideally it should be the colder the better as in home field advantage Twins. Bottom line is they will play the game and let the season begin. No more speculation.

[woolywoolhouse]

It may be cold for the Twins' first three games of the season, but the good news is that it will also be cold for the Indians' first three games of the series.