Article: BREAKING: Twins Flip Granite To Rangers

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

They could also be looking at 16 year olds who have taken steps forward. Not many teams have a ton of cash right now, and those guys are available too. They could get 5 or so Graterol types for the money they have right now.... Obviously those are not sure things, but there's plenty of good IFA talent that came through on cheap bonuses.

Agreed, although I don't if it will come down to 5 or so Graterol types, at least for this period (until July 2nd).

 

But even if it's just one guy at $150k, that's $150k more they have free for the upcoming 2019-2020 period.

 

I suppose there could be some 15 year olds, who turn 16 before July 2nd, who might be willing to sign early for $800k or less, and that would save money for the 2019-2020 period too.

[caninatl04]

I tried, unsuccessfully, to find any kind of list of unsigned IFAs for this (until June) signing period. an anyone help?

 

Will the Twins use this money to sign someone no one has ever heard of?

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I tried, unsuccessfully, to find any kind of list of unsigned IFAs for this (until June) signing period. an anyone help?

I don't think anyone has lists of unsigned IFA, aside from maybe a "top 30" each July (that's highly informed by the deals teams are arranging). There's no public information for anyone to create such a list, unlike draft prospects.

[howieramone2]

 

I tried, unsuccessfully, to find any kind of list of unsigned IFAs for this (until June) signing period. an anyone help?

Will the Twins use this money to sign someone no one has ever heard of?

The most knowledgeable member on the board for IFA is biggentleben.   But as the other member posted, there is no list. 

Edited March 4, 2019 by howieramone2

[Doomtints]

I find it strange that anybody gives the Twins this kind of an allowance based on the players involved in the trade.

 

Prediction: In a few years eyebrows start to rise over these types of transactions and we hear about this again.

[howieramone2]

 

I find it strange that anybody gives the Twins this kind of an allowance based on the players involved in the trade.

 

Prediction: In a few years eyebrows start to rise over these types of transactions and we hear about this again.

This is nothing. We got 7.25M for the 74th pick in the 2019 draft.

Edited March 4, 2019 by howieramone2

[Otto von Ballpark]

I find it strange that anybody gives the Twins this kind of an allowance based on the players involved in the trade.

 

Prediction: In a few years eyebrows start to rise over these types of transactions and we hear about this again.

If you are suggesting that the Twins sold Granite for cash, I don't think much actual cash changed hands here. At most, it seems the Rangers sent us the waiver fee as a courtesy? If the Twins spend any of the bonus pool allowance we got from Baltimore, the Twins will probably lose money on this transaction.

[gil4]

 

Another Twins prospect bites the dust...

Granite or Moore?

[Channing1964]

well come on now...Zack is prolly gonna be a major leaguer somewhere. But here? Look around! As critical as we are,..NOBODY has a better defensive outfield than we do. Believe Dat!!

[launchingthrees]

Remember when Zack "should've taken over CF full time" to many Twins fans? IALTO

No. Because “many twins fans” didn’t believe that Zach Granite “should’ve taken over cf full time”

[AlwaysinModeration]

KATOH was developed to serve a particular purpose. It was a statistics-only double check on minor leaguers. From the first paragraph of the link:

 

"There are certainly drawbacks to scouting the stat line, but due to their objectivity, the projections can be useful in identifying prospects who might be overlooked or overrated."

 

It was never meant to be a stand-alone assessment of prospects.

 

From his 2018 All-KATOH article, where he identified players with potential outside the top 100:

 

"Of course, the fact that these players missed every top-100 list suggests that their physical tools are probably underwhelming. That’s very important information! Often times, the outlook for players like this is much worse than their minor-league stats would lead you to believe. There’s a reason people in the industry always say 'don’t scout the stat line.'"

 

There is a write-up of Granite in the linked article, explaining why scouts weren't as high on Granite as KATOH.

Thanks for posting this, this is very useful context. It also helps puncture my argument that Gonsalves has dropped more than he should have in rankings.

[RatherBeGolfing]

 

No. Because “many twins fans” didn’t believe that Zach Granite “should’ve taken over cf full time”

 

It's funny because I knew as soon as I put down "many" instead of "a small but vocal group" I'd get called on it

[Otto von Ballpark]

It's funny because I knew as soon as I put down "many" instead of "a small but vocal group" I'd get called on it

That's why Nixon went with "the silent majority."

[Doctor Wu]

Savvy move by the front office. As others have already noted, there just wasn't room for Granite in this year's Twins outfield, so getting anything at all for him was a bonus. Good luck to him. It would be fun to both Granite and Ben Revere make the Rangers opening day roster. 

[twinkiesfan11]

I don't think anyone has lists of unsigned IFA, aside from maybe a "top 30" each July (that's highly informed by the deals teams are arranging). There's no public information for anyone to create such a list, unlike draft prospects.

BA still has the top 50 2018 International Prospect signing tracker up. Looks like out of that list only two prospects remain unsigned.

 

34. Fernando Villalobos C Mexico

45. Jose Bonilla “SS” Dominican Republic

 

Could always be a player or players that didn’t crack the top 50 list that have developed since last year that they have their eyes on.

[ashbury]

Savvy move by the front office. As others have already noted, there just wasn't room for Granite in this year's Twins outfield, so getting anything at all for him was a bonus. Good luck to him. It would be fun to both Granite and Ben Revere make the Rangers opening day roster. 

When we play the Rangers my runners have the green light rounding third every time on a ball hit to the outfield, Castro and Cron and Cruz included.

 

/ edit - OK, except for when it's hit to that Gallo guy

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

BA still has the top 50 2018 International Prospect signing tracker up. Looks like out of that list only two prospects remain unsigned.

34. Fernando Villalobos C Mexico
45. Jose Bonilla “SS” Dominican Republic

Could always be a player or players that didn’t crack the top 50 list that have developed since last year that they have their eyes on.

MLB teams have already signed way more than 50 guys, though, including plenty of guys who didn't crack that top 50. Obviously talent evaluation is especially subjective in this market, so there could still be some talent in that group.

 

Far more interesting to me than top 50 lists or unsigned lists would be some historical data on international signings -- how many guys signed, and when, and for how much. Then we could at least peg some likelihood on notable signings coming in the last few months of the period. But alas, no one seems to offer this data publicly either.

 

On BA's #34 guy, he's still unsigned for a reason: "Since the commissioner’s office has banned MLB teams from signing players with Mexican League clubs, catcher Fernando Villalobos (No. 34) won’t be able to sign until MLB ends its ban."

[Mike Sixel]

another example for my "Fangraphs is nonsense" file.

Given that nearly every original member is now in a front office, I'd guess teams disagree, strongly.

[twinkiesfan11]

MLB teams have already signed way more than 50 guys, though, including plenty of guys who didn't crack that top 50. Obviously talent evaluation is especially subjective in this market, so there could still be some talent in that group.

 

Far more interesting to me than top 50 lists or unsigned lists would be some historical data on international signings -- how many guys signed, and when, and for how much. Then we could at least peg some likelihood on notable signings coming in the last few months of the period. But alas, no one seems to offer this data publicly either.

 

On BA's #34 guy, he's still unsigned for a reason: "Since the commissioner’s office has banned MLB teams from signing players with Mexican League clubs, catcher Fernando Villalobos (No. 34) won’t be able to sign until MLB ends its ban."

Agreed, was just curious to see if any of the ranked players remained unsigned as it seems $750k would definitely fetch a player toward the mid to lower end of the top 50 most years.

[Doomtints]

 

Given that nearly every original member is now in a front office, I'd guess teams disagree, strongly.

 

Who else would they hire if they want to crunch numbers?

 

I think a lot of the stuff on Fangraphs is nonsense (though it's much better than BA), but I recognize they have the market cornered.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Who else would they hire if they want to crunch numbers?

 

I think a lot of the stuff on Fangraphs is nonsense (though it's much better than BA), but I recognize they have the market cornered.

 

thousands of applicants who know stats? They literally hired the guy that "invented" KATOH, among others. 

 

I really don't think we need more data than that, to know that FOs disagree strongly that Fangraphs is bunk.....

[Doomtints]

 

thousands of applicants who know stats? They literally hired the guy that "invented" KATOH, among others. 

 

I really don't think we need more data than that, to know that FOs disagree strongly that Fangraphs is bunk.....

 

I'm betting most executives think a lot of the numbers on Fangraphs are bunk, yes. They'd be crazy not to. Everyone has metrics they like and don't like.

 

[Mike Sixel]

 

I'm betting most executives think a lot of the numbers on Fangraphs are bunk, yes. They'd be crazy not to. Everyone has metrics they like and don't like.

 

Then why do they keep hiring the people from there?

 

I really think people are looking for accuracy, in models of human based outcomes, that aren't realistic....

[Doomtints]

I would imagine they want statisticians who are also baseball nerds, though they may find the math skills aren't quite what they were expecting with some of these guys.....

 

I worked with "numbers people" who have no clue what they heck they are looking at. It takes a keen eye to spot things that stick out in a mountain of data. Few people have the skill, even in the circle of people who build these massive databases.

 

Besides, what kinds of salaries are we talking about? $50k? $75k? These are upgrades for a lot of people but nothing to a baseball team.

Edited March 5, 2019 by Doomtints

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

 

I'm betting most executives think a lot of the numbers on Fangraphs are bunk, yes. They'd be crazy not to. Everyone has metrics they like and don't like.

I'm thinking you mean projections and prospect rankings and such, instead of numbers.

[Doomtints]

I mean numbers. I don't trust the majority of algorithms on fangraphs.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I would imagine they want statisticians who are also baseball nerds, though they may find the math skills aren't quite what they were expecting with some of these guys.....

 

I worked with "numbers people" who have no clue what they heck they are looking at. It takes a keen eye to spot things that stick out in a mountain of data. Few people have the skill, even in the circle of people who build these massive databases.

 

Besides, what kinds of salaries are we talking about? $50k? $75k? These are upgrades for a lot of people but nothing to a baseball team.

 

Well, a lot of the new execs barely have baseball experience........

 

Whatever, for some people, no amount of evidence will matter, WAR is dumb, etc.....

[Mike Sixel]

"Dan Szymborski: It’s not like I haven’t talked with teams about things, I’ve done something that involved me getting paid for nearly half the teams in baseball (and almost as many agencies)"

[nicksaviking]

 

I mean numbers. I don't trust the majority of algorithms on fangraphs.

 

I doubt the guys teams are hiring away are using algorithms on fangraphs, otherwise why wouldn't these teams just bookmark fangraphs and instead pay an intern to read it to them?

 

The guys who are getting hired away, and there are a lot of them, are almost certainly good at parsing the information, and also likely able to create new, team specified algorithms, tests, statistics and evaluations.

[Mike Sixel]

In no way am I arguing Fangraphs' stats are perfect, but to say they are bunk and useless and not any good at all? Seems like teams wouldn't be hiring them then....