Article: Deep Starting Pitching Market Is A Lucky Break For Twins

[Rosterman]

Francisco Liriano!

[Thrylos]

 

There you go... there's my strategy... be aggressive and see if you an have Anibal Sanchez (4 years, $28M), Ervin Santana (3 years, $18M), and Joe Blanton at 1 year, $5M. There's $18M and three pitchers who are likely the top three in the Twins rotation, followed by Diamond and then Deduno for the short-term. If they're not willing to sign those deals quickly, stay in good standing with their agents and offer them the same deal, or 95% of the same deal, in early January.

 

I think that the market is actually thin and the Twins are better of trading Span/Willingham/Morneau/someOFprospects for young projectable MLB-ready arms with 4-6 years of control.

 

That said:

- I don't think that the Twins will ever give a 4 year deal to a FA pitcher.

- I don't think that any of these guys who are free agents are better than a fixed Baker

- I don't think that any of these guys who are free agents are much better than a good Liriano

 

The Twins got to go to the root cause of this and look at a different pitching coach for starters.

[John Bonnes]

I think this is a market the Twins are best kind of sitting back and watching for a bit. Once Greinke signs, the next tier will go. Jackson and Sanchez should get decent deals, like over $20M. I'm not sure I see anyone else who would get more than $6M a year... I mean, i think if the Twins were aggressive, like they were with Carroll and Doumit last year, and offered Blanton 2 years and $12M, I think he'd probably sign. Guthrie was released 2 months ago.I'm intrigued by Ervin Santana, and I might go 3 years, $18M with him.

 

There you go... there's my strategy... be aggressive and see if you an have Anibal Sanchez (4 years, $28M), Ervin Santana (3 years, $18M), and Joe Blanton at 1 year, $5M. There's $18M and three pitchers who are likely the top three in the Twins rotation, followed by Diamond and then Deduno for the short-term. If they're not willing to sign those deals quickly, stay in good standing with their agents and offer them the same deal, or 95% of the same deal, in early January.

 

Yeah, I think we're going to argue a little bit about the salaries if you think Anibal Sanchez is going to sign at less per year than Carl Pavano did.

I agree on Blanton, though I might go 6.

I don't know about Santana - he's been awful this year but very good the last two. He had a miserable April, and then had his workload cut down in July (tired arm?) and seems to be fixed and effective now. Since July 30, he's had a 3.30 ERA with 46/15 in 57 innings. I don't know if his overall numbers will garner a mutli-year deal or not, but if it does, I think it'll be closer to 3/24 (or even 3/27) than 3/18. (BTW, I like that name, too. But I can't imagine the Twins paying the freight unless the market really drops out.)

[John Bonnes]

I think that the market is actually thin and the Twins are better of trading Span/Willingham/Morneau/someOFprospects for young projectable MLB-ready arms with 4-6 years of control.

 

Here was the primary challenge I faced when trying to write this story: defining "thin." I decided to come up with 3 measures of the thinness or thickness of a market:

1. How many $20+ M contracts are signed - these are rare and clearly a sign that a team is investing in a significant pitcher. Over the last 6 years, here is how many have signed those deals: 3, 2, 2, 3, 1, 9.

2. How many $10+M contracts are signed - these are either solid guys or very good guys that are getting a one-year deal. Over the last 6 years, here is how many have signed those deals (beyond the $20+ M) : 4, 3, 4, 2, 1, 6.

3. How many get at least a major league deal. I don't have the exact numbers for these handy, but most years it has been 12-18.

 

By those 3 measurements, this year's free agent market is going to be better than any of the last five classes in all three categories. I think if you go through the class, that becomes apparent.

 

So when you say you think the market is "thin" I would be interested in your definition. I'll admit - I struggled to find mine. It might not be right.

[Riverbrian]

God... I'm hoping that I'm being reasonable with my wish list but I'm prepared for the possibility of not being within reason.

 

I'd like to see the Twins target one FA and make a real strong push. Overpay if they have to... But pick one and roll the dice.

 

My choice... if the Rays dont pick up his option. Shields would be the guy in my opinion.

 

I'd also like the Twins to trade for one young SP with upside ready to be a rookie next year. I don't care who they give up to get this young SP. if it takes Span and someone else... OK... Lets do it.

 

My choice... Target the Braves and see what it takes to get Terehan.

 

I'd also like to see the Twins roll the dice on a young rule 5. Put him in the rotation and ride it out.

 

My choice... No idea... Open to suggestions. Lets see if our scouts can pull out a gem.

 

Diamond... can make it 4... Baker if he's willing to sign for a smaller contract with larger bonuses could be 5...

 

Deduno... 5 or 6 depending on Baker... Devries... choice 6 or 7... Hendriks... 7 or 8... Gibson in June or July can be 8 or 9.

 

Plus take a chance on a Minor League FA or two which I'm sure they will do.

 

All in All... Not overwhelming but better in my opinion.

[kab21]

I don't know about Santana - he's been awful this year but very good the last two. He had a miserable April, and then had his workload cut down in July (tired arm?) and seems to be fixed and effective now. Since July 30, he's had a 3.30 ERA with 46/15 in 57 innings. I don't know if his overall numbers will garner a mutli-year deal or not, but if it does, I think it'll be closer to 3/24 (or even 3/27) than 3/18. (BTW, I like that name, too. But I can't imagine the Twins paying the freight unless the market really drops out.)

 

Since Santana successfully rehabbed and avoided TJ he has been awful, alright, good and awful. If you look closer his FIP has been in the 4-5.00 range (xFIP 4-4.50) during those seasons. Right now his velocity and K's are both going down and he's looking like a prime candidate to be absolutely awful in the future. I don't think he's intriguing at all and he should be avoided at all costs.

[Heinie Manush]

One thing to note in the GM handbook, the Twins have money to spend with a lot coming off the books this year AND no player on their roster will require a significant investment in the next 3-5 years.

 

So if they sign a pitcher for 4 years 20 Million, it would not cause them to lose any young superstars on their current roster to FA.

 

Twins need 2-3 Starting Pitchers & maybe a MI if there is one to be had

1 Staring Pitcher 20 Million a year makes the payroll around 90 Million

1 Starting Pitcher 8 million a year makes the payroll around 98 Million

With a million or two to spend for a decent MI bench player or a flyer on a project makes the payroll around 100 million.

 

Unless they plan to cut payroll down even further, this team has the long term room to get some decent starting pitchers if they choose to.

 

We do need a quality MI as well as a quality starter and a solid starter. The thing to remember is that we've got two free agent classes to accomplish this. Sure, things can fall into place and we could make a run in 2013 but the realistic course is to plan for 2014. Turn Span, Morneau and dollars into the above as well as a solid set up man and a replacement in case Plouffe/Parmalee doesn't pan out and we should contend in 2014.

[DAM DC Twins Fans]

Yes--pick up a mediocre starter (Sheilds?? Peavy??) and maybe overpay him...trade Morneau/Span/Revere for another (younger) starter...go with IF next year of Parmalee, Dozier at 2B, Florimon, Plouffe with Carroll as UT...hope for Gibson/Baker to join Diamond and these 2 pitchers in rotation--with Deduno, Walters, DeVries battling it out in ST for 4 and 5 roles. Trade more at deadline (based on progress of Hicks, Arcia and Sano for 2014).

[striker_86]

What about Peavy? Sox arent picking up his option....any chance we go after him?

[Thrylos]

I think that the market is actually thin and the Twins are better of trading Span/Willingham/Morneau/someOFprospects for young projectable MLB-ready arms with 4-6 years of control.

 

Here was the primary challenge I faced when trying to write this story: defining "thin." I decided to come up with 3 measures of the thinness or thickness of a market:

1. How many $20+ M contracts are signed - these are rare and clearly a sign that a team is investing in a significant pitcher. Over the last 6 years, here is how many have signed those deals: 3, 2, 2, 3, 1, 9.

2. How many $10+M contracts are signed - these are either solid guys or very good guys that are getting a one-year deal. Over the last 6 years, here is how many have signed those deals (beyond the $20+ M) : 4, 3, 4, 2, 1, 6.

3. How many get at least a major league deal. I don't have the exact numbers for these handy, but most years it has been 12-18.

 

By those 3 measurements, this year's free agent market is going to be better than any of the last five classes in all three categories. I think if you go through the class, that becomes apparent.

 

So when you say you think the market is "thin" I would be interested in your definition. I'll admit - I struggled to find mine. It might not be right.

 

 

My definition of a non-thin market is one that has several number 1 pitchers in a championship team as free agents. This market has a guy who is maybe a number 2 (Greinke) and the rest are lower. Again, I am talking about a championship team, not the Royals of this world. Hamels' extension hurt the market. I just do not see any number ones out there in this market.

 

Now, as far as $ goes, teams spend. They will spend and they will overspend. If Greinke gets a number 1 type of contract this does not mean that he is an ace...

[Thrylos]

What about Peavy? Sox arent picking up his option....any chance we go after him?

 

Are you sure that Peavy is that much better than Baker in the AL?

 

Career AL numbers:

 

Peavy: 3.93 ERA, 1.182 WHIP, 7.9 K/9, 3.51 K/BB

Baker: 4.15 ERA, 1.264 WHIP, 7.2 K/9, 3.44 K/BB

 

And Peavy's numbers were all prime career numbers where Baker's include some early career numbers, which make them look worse than Peavy's. Pretty much the same numbers in the AL in their prime years

[Oxtung]

What about Peavy? Sox arent picking up his option....any chance we go after him?

 

Are you sure that Peavy is that much better than Baker in the AL?

 

Career AL numbers:

 

Peavy: 3.93 ERA, 1.182 WHIP, 7.9 K/9, 3.51 K/BB

Baker: 4.15 ERA, 1.264 WHIP, 7.2 K/9, 3.44 K/BB

 

And Peavy's numbers were all prime career numbers where Baker's include some early career numbers, which make them look worse than Peavy's. Pretty much the same numbers in the AL in their prime years

 

Their career numbers mean little going into next year. Baker is not even a year removed from TJ surgery and Peavy is going to throw >200 IP.

[Brock Beauchamp]

The last time Jake Peavy threw 200 innings was when he won the Cy Young... In 2007. He will break that mark again in his next start but let's not pretend that he's some kind of workhorse.

[DaveW]

The last time Jake Peavy threw 200 innings was when he won the Cy Young... In 2007. He will break that mark again in his next start but let's not pretend that he's some kind of workhorse.

Amen! I'd say the odds of Baker throwing 150+ IP next year is about the same as Peavy.

 

As much as people want to get down on their knees for the almighty Jake Peavy all of a sudden, it should be noted that the White Sox have paid 48 million to him thus far for 417 IP of 4.18 ERA ball over three years...yeah... what a god damn workhorse he is!

 

In comparison the Twins have paid Pavano (who is considered a "meh" signing around these parts") 24 mil for 506 IP of 4.27 ERA ball over the same time period.

 

So is Peavy really the answer when Pavano has given you better numbers at 50% of the cost?

[Oxtung]

The last time Jake Peavy threw 200 innings was when he won the Cy Young... In 2007. He will break that mark again in his next start but let's not pretend that he's some kind of workhorse.

 

I'm not saying he is a workhorse or even that the Twins should sign him. My point is that quoting Baker's and Peavy's stats and then implying they are equal pitchers at this point because their statistics are equal is ridiculous. One has a TON of questions after not throwing a pitch in 2012 coming off of TJ surgery and the other has had a very successful season where he is going to pitch over 200 innings.

[Brock Beauchamp]

The last time Jake Peavy threw 200 innings was when he won the Cy Young... In 2007. He will break that mark again in his next start but let's not pretend that he's some kind of workhorse.

 

I'm not saying he is a workhorse or even that the Twins should sign him. My point is that quoting Baker's and Peavy's stats and then implying they are equal pitchers at this point because their statistics are equal is ridiculous. One has a TON of questions after not throwing a pitch in 2012 coming off of TJ surgery and the other has had a very successful season where he is going to pitch over 200 innings.

 

Oh, sure. We have no idea what to expect of Baker but we have a pretty good idea of what to expect from Peavy (150-200 IP, 4-ish ERA).

 

The thing is that Baker's ceiling is also what we can expect from Peavy and Baker can be signed for about 1/10th the price. It's a risk but it's a good risk to take.

[TopGunn#22]

Great Discussion. Always appreciate Bonnes, Seth and Thrylos. Riverbrain made some good points as well. My humble opinion is that our division is so winable on a year to year basis that to think we need to undertake some 5-year rebuilding plan is foolish. We need starting pitching. Lots of other teams do as well. We will have to out-bid several teams to accomplish this.

I like the idea of offering Span as a centerpiece to acquire a good young pitcher. Maybe offer Span to the Nationals in a package for Detwiller and Lombo. Maybe to the Braves for Teherhan and make it a bigger deal and go after Prado. He could solve our 2B problem. Trading for a Josh Johnson or Brandon Morrow or James Shields should also be considered. (Once BJ Upton is gone, Rays may be in the market for a CF/Leadoff type guy. I think E. Jackson has proven he can pitch in the A.L If you trade for someone, sign someone like a Jackson or McCarthy and take a flyer on one other SP (not necessarily Baker, but that type of guy, you have a rotation that could compete in the A.L. Central and you simply move Revere to CF and the top of the order and play Parmalee in RF.

[jorgenswest]

A deeper group of pitchers goes two ways. There will also be more teams losing pitching and in the market.

 

In this environment, I don't think it is as good for the Twins. with increased competition for free agent pitching, players will have more options. Why would they sign with the Twins? If the terms of the contract are the same, I think there would be at least 20 organizations that would be chosen over the Twins. It might be closer to 28. Objectively, how confident would you be in the Twins chances next year? How much confidence do you have in the pitching coach? the medical staff?

 

The only way the Twins can persuade them is by overpaying in terms of years or dollars. Doing so will give the Twins the increased risk of a bad contract.

 

The only way to avoid this is to let the market play out.

 

It will be frustrating. We will see pitchers sign with other teams. Someone will write that the Twins could have signed "Pitcher X" for 30 mil over 3 years. Why didn't they? They must be cheap. In truth, "Pitcher X" only signs with the Twins if they add a 4th year or 15%.

 

There is no easy way out of this hole. Giving bad contracts to decline phase pitchers could delay the turn around. I would stay out of the market until the end.

[nokomismod]

This is a fun discussion. I still think there is enough potential offense for next year to try to make a run.

I like Shields, Jackson, Grienke and others. Oakland might do their once every couple of years purge of pitchers via trade for prospects.

As far as the Twins having a hard time attracting free agents, I don't see that. Maybe it's because I love it here myself. We have a beautiful ball park, an above average core of non diva players (Mauer, Morneau, Willingham, Doumit), decent bullpen, great city and state, and attractive women (just ask Ricky Rubio).

[Brock Beauchamp]

The Twins didn't have difficulty in attracting Willingham and Doumit last offseason and both wanted to extend their contracts mid-season.

 

I don't think it will be that difficult to attract free agents. Obviously, the players like it here and after a horrible season last year, the Twins pulled down some decent bats on the market.

[Rosterman]

You can attract players, but the first stop is contract money and second is playing for a winner. 2-3-4 years or more. Or, you wait out and sign people to a one-year.

[Brock Beauchamp]

You can attract players, but the first stop is contract money and second is playing for a winner. 2-3-4 years or more. Or, you wait out and sign people to a one-year.

 

The Twins signed Willingham on December 15th. There will be guys willing to sign with the team if JR makes competitive offers. It shouldn't take extra years in most cases.

[beckmt]

I like Marcum, Shields, and Jackson(though less than the first 2). Guthrie would be good at the correct price 7 mil range. Pitching is always dicy and I would rather trade for younger arms(also a risk, but many small market clubs have excess pitching talent). If the Twins feel they can win this thing next year, they will need to sign or trade for 2 - 3 pitchers. I feel they could be further away from that, but if the front office feels that go for it. Both the Tigers and the White Sox are flawed ballclubs that have had (White Sox) better than expected years. Tigers will also need to change up pitching staff from contact back end to stuff back end(defense issues). That may need pitchers also. Prces are likely to be high, hope the Twins guess right

[PseudoSABR]

There's not a lot at the top (i.e. Grienke) but the Twins would never be in on top tier guys (or they shouldn't be); but the middle tiers are pretty fat, to the point where someone might fall into affordability. There's old guys like Loshe, Dempster, Millwood, Kuroda, Arroyo who will be attractive to competitors but the Twins will have no interest in. Whether it's Sanchez, Peavy, Marcum, or Jackson, I'd be pretty happy if the Twins signed any to a deal less than 10m per and less than three years. Add the possibility that Floyd, Haren, and Shields could also hit the market, the Twins might be able to pluck a mid-to-top of the rotation guy. One from the McCarthy, Blanton,Saunders, Villaneuva, Young group might be more realistic. And there's also the crazies/projects: Zambrano, Liriano, E-Santana, J-Sanchez, and Dice-K (ha).

 

In any case, there's far more out there than years past. The Twins have money to spend, and even if they don't compete, they should be in the business of acquiring assets.

 

tl;dr:

Top Tier - Grienke

Old Tier - Dempster, Kuroda, Millwood, Lohse, Arroyo (Oswalt)

Option Tier - Shields, Floyd, Haren

(Twins affordability begins here-perhaps)

Second Tier - A-Sanchez, Peavy, Marcum, Jackson

Third Tier - McCarthy, Blanton, Saunders

Questions Tier - Chris Young, Villaneuva, Guthrie, Baker, Maholm (option)

Crazy Tier - Liriano, Zambrano, E-Santana, J-Sanchez, (Dice-K)

 

Nearly all of those guys are better than what the Twins have thrown out there four of five days.

[johnnydakota]

I think this is a market the Twins are best kind of sitting back and watching for a bit. Once Greinke signs, the next tier will go. Jackson and Sanchez should get decent deals, like over $20M. I'm not sure I see anyone else who would get more than $6M a year... I mean, i think if the Twins were aggressive, like they were with Carroll and Doumit last year, and offered Blanton 2 years and $12M, I think he'd probably sign. Guthrie was released 2 months ago.I'm intrigued by Ervin Santana, and I might go 3 years, $18M with him.

 

There you go... there's my strategy... be aggressive and see if you an have Anibal Sanchez (4 years, $28M), Ervin Santana (3 years, $18M), and Joe Blanton at 1 year, $5M. There's $18M and three pitchers who are likely the top three in the Twins rotation, followed by Diamond and then Deduno for the short-term. If they're not willing to sign those deals quickly, stay in good standing with their agents and offer them the same deal, or 95% of the same deal, in early January.

 

with tampa wanting to trim payroll and open to trading shields... why not span to tampa?even if we threw in the 2 rejects from chicago hernadez and escober? then add a jackson and sanchez.....plus a pair of quality relievers and a middle infielder and we have a start to the 2013 season,for around 105.000,000

[old nurse]

This is a deep FA pitching class??? Grienke yes--if he could keep his head together. Sanchez maybe but not having a good time now with Detroit. The rest--you gotta be kidding.

 

I wouldnt give any of them more than 6mill a year; or 15 mill for 3. They are not youngsters--staying healthy for 3 years is a question for all of them. I have stated on other threads that Jackson (#4 starter here for Nats--yes deep rotation) is overrated. I dont think he is better than Diamond. He may be the best after Greinke.

 

Twins much better off trading Span/Revere/Morneau (packaged with somebody else) for a good number 2 starter or better yet a high prospect ready to pitch in 2014.

 

You said it first!