Thank You Nick Nelson

[Mike Sixel]

Ancient history, really. I don't think we can assume a continuation of Ryanesque risk aversion and frugality. Why not take this FO (and the owner) at their word? They say they'll spend if and when they think it makes sense.

Which, in fairness, is what the owner said when Ryan was here. But, we'll see, hopefully soon, if this FO is different. So far, nope.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Ancient history, really. I don't think we can assume a continuation of Ryanesque risk aversion and frugality. Why not take this FO (and the owner) at their word? They say they'll spend if and when they think it makes sense.

ownership hasn’t changed, DSP is still the president, and Falvine haven’t spent any differently than Ryan. Maybe their decision making has some additional information behind it, but the wallet is still the same.

 

Until evidence of the contrary, why assume differently?

[ewen21]

 

ownership hasn’t changed, DSP is still the president, and Falvine haven’t spent any differently than Ryan. Maybe their decision making has some additional information behind it, but the wallet is still the same.

Until evidence of the contrary, why assume differently?

I am not a fan of these two at this point and yet the underlined part to me is so off I have to say something.  Ryan never once found multiple FAs who where weren't on their last legs during the offseason.  He went out and got players like Phil Nevin, Brett Boone, Jeff Cirillo, Rondell White, Jose Offerman and felt like he accomplished something.  THese were players that were nearly middle-aged making their last stop on their baseball journey.  Most of them hadn't had a good season in at least three seasons.

 

These two deserve criticism, but to lump them with Terry Ryan simply isn't fair.  I don't think people are willing to accept just how horrendous Ryan was the last 6 or 7 years he was GM.   Possibly one of the five worst In baseball.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

I am not a fan of these two at this point and yet the underlined part to me is so off I have to say something. Ryan never once found multiple FAs who where weren't on their last legs during the offseason. He went out and got players like Phil Nevin, Brett Boone, Jeff Cirillo, Rondell White, Jose Offerman and felt like he accomplished something. THese were players that were nearly middle-aged making their last stop on their baseball journey. Most of them hadn't had a good season in at least three seasons.

 

These two deserve criticism, but to lump them with Terry Ryan simply isn't fair. I don't think people are willing to accept just how horrendous Ryan was the last 6 or 7 years he was GM. Possibly one of the five worst In baseball.

Nelson Cruz is 37 years old, how long do you think he’ll play? I think he’s a good signing, but it’s his ride into the sunset.

 

Similarly Ryan signed Jim Thome.

 

Is Lance Lynn so different from Phil Hughes or Ricky Nolasco?

 

I give the FO credit for turning expiring contracts into quality minor leaguers, something Ryan never did. Seems like we’re in for more of that in 2019

 

Time will tell if the FO fixed the coaching/development system. They’ve talked the talk, but then smooth talk is a Falvey strength. We’ll see if talk turns into action. It had better.

[yarnivek1972]

Ancient history, really. I don't think we can assume a continuation of Ryanesque risk aversion and frugality. Why not take this FO (and the owner) at their word? They say they'll spend if and when they think it makes sense.

This will be Target Field’s 10th season. The Twins have been higher than 20th in payroll exactly four times in that span. 2018 they were 18th. 2010 to 2012 they were 10th, 9th and 13th. The other 6 (including 2019 barring a mega signing) they were bottom 1/3 in the league. Spend like a loser, you will be a loser.

[ewen21]

 

Nelson Cruz is 37 years old, how long do you think he’ll play? I think he’s a good signing, but it’s his ride into the sunset.

Similarly Ryan signed Jim Thome.

Is Lance Lynn so different from Phil Hughes or Ricky Nolasco?

I give the FO credit for turning expiring contracts into quality minor leaguers, something Ryan never did. Seems like we’re in for more of that in 2019

Cruz had a solid year last year by any standard.  When did Ryan ever sign a FA who hit 37 home runs and drove 97 the year prior?

 

YOu might want to check your timeline on the Thome signing.  Smith was still GM when he was signed.  Do you know for sure that Ryan was responsible for the signing in spite of the fact that Smith was the GM?  If so you have the floor on that one.

 

That's all.  I am sorry.  I just have no interest in a discussion on how Falvey and Levine are similar to Ryan. 

[bird]

 

ownership hasn’t changed, DSP is still the president, and Falvine haven’t spent any differently than Ryan. Maybe their decision making has some additional information behind it, but the wallet is still the same.

Until evidence of the contrary, why assume differently?

 

 

Knock yourself out. I'm reading the same things as you and interpreting things differently, that's all. I believe Falvey has a green light. I believe Ryan did too. Most people don't.

[bird]

 

This will be Target Field’s 10th season. The Twins have been higher than 20th in payroll exactly four times in that span. 2018 they were 18th. 2010 to 2012 they were 10th, 9th and 13th. The other 6 (including 2019 barring a mega signing) they were bottom 1/3 in the league. Spend like a loser, you will be a loser.

 

 

I'm aware of the statistics in vague terms, as irrelevant as they are in terms of specific details surrounding those years. There's more to it than spending. I think your viewpoint about spending is simplistic at best.

[TheLeviathan]

The Grandal thing proves two things: the Twins could be spending but are looking for cheap deals.

 

Not cool.

[Mike Sixel]

The Grandal thing proves two things: the Twins could be spending but are looking for cheap deals.

 

Not cool.

This. More worried about bargains than fair wages and winning. Which, that's fine, if you don't care about winning.

[terrydactyls]

And do you have an opinion why he'd risk his career making something like that up? How does that serve him?

This is a 20 year + sports business reporter whose credentials are thought of highly enough for Forbes to carry him as a contributor.

He didn't risk his career. He didn't mention Forbes (as I pointed out). I don't know where you picked up that reference. I couldn't find it in the main article or any links that were in the article.

[jorgenswest]

Is it reasonable to expect their payroll rank to be about the same as their revenue rank?

 

How do the two compare since Target Field?

[Mr. Brooks]

He didn't risk his career. He didn't mention Forbes (as I pointed out). I don't know where you picked up that reference. I couldn't find it in the main article or any links that were in the article.

You don't think making up facts out of thin air puts his career at risk?

 

The article I linked is from Forbes.com. They are a pretty well respected publication and think highly enough of his standards to feature him as a contributor, including that article in particular.

[mlhouse]

 

should and will are two different things. I think they should spend and won’t. I would characterize your stance as they won’t spend and you agree with the FO. No?

 

The team should spend when they have developed a competitive nucleas of players were the spending can make a difference.  Right now, spending is just fixing themselves into long term contracts and wasted money. 

 

While I think spending $15 million on Nelson Cruz "helps" the team, it helps in a way that really doesnt matter. It moves the win needle from 74 to 82.  Even a big name free agent right now isn't going to be that impactful when the players around him have not become established.  I think it is more important for the long term baseball future of the team to give plate appearances to Brent Rooker and Miguel Sano.  

 

While I hope that JOnathan Schoop has a rebound year, I think it is a better to play Nick Gordon at 2B rather than invest $7.5 million on a one year deal for Schoop.  If he has a good year, he is a UFA and gone.   If he sucks, well, why not let Gordon suck and get that experience and development, as well as the information we need to see if he has any type of future as a MLB infielder?

 

Where I disagree with this ownership is that when they had a young, established core of young players they simply did not invest in the team.   In the 2000's the team had a core of Mauer-Mourneau-Hunter-Cuddyer-Santana-Liriano-Nathan.   But then, you have 255 PA of Lew Ford with a 57 OPS+.  355 of Rondell White with a OPS+ of 66 (These numbers are from 2006).  If you take away the 4 position players I mention above, the only player on the Twins roster in 2006 with a OPS+ over 100 was 35 year old back up catcher Mike Redmond.  

 

Using the minor leagues to make a trade to bring in an established veteran(s) players.  Actually spending some money on mid-level free agents instead of scrap heaps like Rondell White and Rueben Sierra, they could have built upon this team and made it truly competitive.  They had 2 AL MVPs on the team.  A Cy Young winner.   Another lefty who competed with that CY Young guy (when healthy) as having the best stuff on the team.  One of the best closers In baseball.  Put another $20 million in payroll and this team has a chance to win playoff series and even advance to the WS, not just win in the crappiest division in baseball and get swept by the real competitive teams in the AL.  

[TheLeviathan]

All of us are arguing the same thing: They should, but they wont.

 

I honestly have no clue why you spent pages arguing with people about economics or anything else.

[jokin]

 

All of us are arguing the same thing: They should, but they wont.

I honestly have no clue why you spent pages arguing with people about economics or anything else.

 

Maybe.... Because YOU challenged his economics acumen?

[Brandon Warne]

 

Is it reasonable to expect their payroll rank to be about the same as their revenue rank?

How do the two compare since Target Field?

 

The average payroll has ranked 17.7 in Target Field. Revenue and team value are like 22-23.

 

https://zonecoverage.com/2019/front-page/warne-the-twins-payroll-situation-is-complex-frustrating-bewildering-but-also-worth-examining/

[Jham]

The average payroll has ranked 17.7 in Target Field. Revenue and team value are like 22-23.

 

https://zonecoverage.com/2019/front-page/warne-the-twins-payroll-situation-is-complex-frustrating-bewildering-but-also-worth-examining/

Interesting. How much does revenue increase during our competitive years? If not much, that could explain the reluctance to spend. ROI, as others have pointed out...

[Brandon Warne]

 

Interesting. How much does revenue increase during our competitive years? If not much, that could explain the reluctance to spend. ROI, as others have pointed out...

 

There haven't been enough competitive years. That's the whole part of the deal that gives this added nuance. In 2010, they were 10th in payroll and expected to win the whole dang thing. The next year, they lost 99 games and were ninth. 

 

Since then, they've never had a reasonable chance to succeed. Sure, they came close in 2015 and lucked into the playoffs in 2017, but none of those teams were built to make the postseason as the team was amidst a rebuild. 

 

I maintained that this offseason was the one to spend when asked a year ago, but I also -- wrongly, as it was -- assumed we'd be another year further down the path with Buxton and Sano, whose seasons were both largely a wash in 2018. 

 

I still think spending this offseason would have made sense, but I also think finding out where Sano is playing defensively after 2019 will go a long way toward what they'll target in free agency.

 

So will however many openings they have in the rotation behind Jose Berrios, with guys like Justin Verlander, Chris Sale, Gerrit Cole, Madison Bumgarner, Zack Wheeler and others available in free agency.

[Mike Sixel]

There haven't been enough competitive years. That's the whole part of the deal that gives this added nuance. In 2010, they were 10th in payroll and expected to win the whole dang thing. The next year, they lost 99 games and were ninth.

 

Since then, they've never had a reasonable chance to succeed. Sure, they came close in 2015 and lucked into the playoffs in 2017, but none of those teams were built to make the postseason as the team was amidst a rebuild.

 

I maintained that this offseason was the one to spend when asked a year ago, but I also -- wrongly, as it was -- assumed we'd be another year further down the path with Buxton and Sano, whose seasons were both largely a wash in 2018.

 

I still think spending this offseason would have made sense, but I also think finding out where Sano is playing defensively after 2019 will go a long way toward what they'll target in free agency.

 

So will however many openings they have in the rotation behind Jose Berrios, with guys like Justin Verlander, Chris Sale, Gerrit Cole, Madison Bumgarner, Zack Wheeler and others available in free agency.

Are you suggesting this front office will sign a super expensive pitcher next year?

[Brandon Warne]

 

Are you suggesting this front office will sign a super expensive pitcher next year?

 

I'm saying that I spoke with a front office member who said he expects to do something big when the team shows it's ready to own the division.

 

I don't know if I agree with the approach -- but I believe they'll do something we aren't thinking about at this second.

[Mike Sixel]

I'm saying that I spoke with a front office member who said he expects to do something big when the team shows it's ready to own the division.

 

I don't know if I agree with the approach -- but I believe they'll do something we aren't thinking about at this second.

Thanks! And yes, I don't get the approach on younger players not being added to open the window.

[Brandon Warne]

 

Thanks! And yes, I don't get the approach on younger players not being added to open the window.

 

The only part that makes sense to me is really, really wanting to hone in on a specific need to supplement. Like if they want Arenado to play third and Sano to play first next year, I'm OK with waiting. If they sign Gerrit Cole, I'm OK with waiting.

 

If their long plan is to get Francisco Lindor, I'm OK with waiting. 

 

But it has to be fireworks. 

[Mike Sixel]

The only part that makes sense to me is really, really wanting to hone in on a specific need to supplement. Like if they want Arenado to play third and Sano to play first next year, I'm OK with waiting. If they sign Gerrit Cole, I'm OK with waiting.

 

If their long plan is to get Francisco Lindor, I'm OK with waiting.

 

But it has to be fireworks.

The part that got me was saying 26 year old all stars won't be signed until they are the last piece. That is ridiculous. I get it with older players, but then they sign Cruz, making me question the actual plan.

[Mike Sixel]

And, I wish you were here more often. Your comments are usually quite good.

[TheLeviathan]

I understand the FO's "pounce at the right moment" strategy.  I understand some of the defenses for it offered here.

 

But how often are you going to have the perfect player for the perfect moment?  Waiting for the stars to align is a very passive approach and has a very low probability of occurring.  And even if it does occur, it's not like you're the only destination for that player to land, you still have to compete with other franchises to offer the most money.

 

That seems like a strategy riddled with pitfalls and low on probability of success.  I feel like they are willingly create this baseball scenario and trying to hit it on the ground on the right side:

 

[Major League Ready]

 

The average payroll has ranked 17.7 in Target Field. Revenue and team value are like 22-23.

 

https://zonecoverage.com/2019/front-page/warne-the-twins-payroll-situation-is-complex-frustrating-bewildering-but-also-worth-examining/

 

Good article, Brandon!  I appreciate you were objective enough to look at the facts in terms of the Twins relative revenue and payroll. It would be refreshing if the hard facts you provided would mitigate the constant moaning that the problem is the Pohlad's being cheap. The facts are irrefutable. However, I bet we still hear the same uniformed positioned over and over. The acceptance of the fact that teams are going to spend based on relative revenue would help to guide the conversations of what we should do down a more constructive path. 

[Mike Sixel]

It's a very good article. 

 

Average? In the last 6 years, they've never been higher than 18th, and in five of those six years, they've been 20th or lower. 

 

That's fine, if you care more about how much money you make (we aren't talking about losing money, but how much you make) than about winning......

 

This year, ,they won't crack the top 20 most likely, though they might, since so many teams are not trying to win this year. But just because other teams are not spending....does not mean the Twins are also not spending. 

 

There might be many reasons for this. They might think the upcoming labor issues are going to be bad, and so aren't signing deals past that date. They might think revenues will drop (which has never happened in the history of the big 4 sports in the US, but hey, it might happen some day). They might think Martin Perez is actually a good pitcher, and the guys that cost more aren't. They might be saving all their  money for next year (a song we've heard over and over). They might not believe in this core at all. They might be waiting to see which of the core need replacing next year (like, somehow, the perfect match will be there, and will sign here). Who knows?

 

All I know is that they had lots of money come off the books, and they likely won't spend 45% of revenue on players. And, there were good players available (it's their job to pick the right ones of the available pool).

[Don Walcott]

I agree that it's a good article. However, I don't agree with the following characterization, that seems in line with the original post in this thread:

 

"And beyond that, arguments tend to go one of two ways:

 

    People call the Twins cheap, you tell them the team literally just set a team record for payroll, and they tell you ‘So what, it still isn’t enough’ or ‘Yeah, well, every other team keeps going up too.’
    People want to cite that revenues just keep going up, and that the Twins aren’t growing in line with the rest of teams."

 

I think this is a pretty condescending and inaccurate characterization of the arguments fans are making about the Twins spending money to compete.

 

There are plenty of people who are fine with the $128 million the Twins were going to spend on payroll at the beginning of 2018. (They actually ended up with an adjusted payroll of $115 milliion, according to Spotrac.) However, some fans are disappointed in this off-season because the Twins haven't acquired better players, for the cost of paying those players their market value, especially now that payroll is approximately $100 million and there were a bunch of good pitchers available this off-season. I don't think I've seen either of the two quoted Twins fans complaints. Though if that were the level of argument from Twins fans, it would be easy to discredit them. And maybe that's the purpose of the quotes.

 

Although the fact that revenues do continue to go up should allow for the payroll number to go up as well, that's a pretty simplistic way of viewing the argument most people here make about the ability the Twins have to pay more to players. Most of the comments I've seen do not say anything about spending the same amount or more than other teams. Rather, the argument is that because there is more money for the team to spend, rather than just pocket the additional revenue, we should invest some of that money in improving a team that could really use a few upgrades. That really does come down to whether the owners want to try to win with this team.

 

I don't even believe it comes down to whether the owners care more about profit than winning. They know as well as anyone that winning will make them more money. However, there's a risk to spending enough money to compete -- less short-term profit. Maybe they are risk averse. I don't know.

 

Whatever the motivations are, I simply want our ownership to try to win. I don't think they are doing enough of that. I hope they prove me wrong.

[USAFChief]

 

I'm saying that I spoke with a front office member who said he expects to do something big when the team shows it's ready to own the division.

 

I don't know if I agree with the approach -- but I believe they'll do something we aren't thinking about at this second.

Maybe they could expect to own the division if they did something big.

 

Honestly, the argument often put forth here and elsewhere..."wait until you're ready to win before you go get the player(s) needed to win"...is astoundingly illogical and self defeating.