Non-Twins Off-season news, tidbits and transactions

[Monkeypaws]

 

For years we were told mid market teams can't sustain long term success, because they get later picks and the team becomes too expensive. Now a new FO comes in, and claims the 100% opposite is true.....and people buy it as an excuse to not get better at the MLB level. 

 

Look at the list of WS champs: out of the last 15 years or so, one name stands out: St. Louis Cardinals.

 

Much smaller market than the Twin Cities, yet they have been to 3 World Series and won 2. They have all the wheels turning, and continue to be viable. And that success has been steady, since the 87 series and even before. They don't have long droughts between pennants and titles.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/St._Louis_Cardinals

 

Look at other examples: Florida. Won in 2003 and have been a hot mess since. White Sox, and even the Royals pop to mind. Yeah they got glory, then years of misery to follow.

 

I'd prefer the Cardinals model. Sustainability is possible with a smart organization.

[Vanimal46]

Look at the list of WS champs: out of the last 15 years or so, one name stands out: St. Louis Cardinals.

 

Much smaller market than the Twin Cities, yet they have been to 3 World Series and won 2. They have all the wheels turning, and continue to be viable. And that success has been steady, since the 87 series and even before. They don't have long droughts between pennants and titles.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/St._Louis_Cardinals

 

Look at other examples: Florida. Won in 2003 and have been a hot mess since. White Sox, and even the Royals pop to mind. Yeah they got glory, then years of misery to follow.

 

I'd prefer the Cardinals model. Sustainability is possible with a smart organization.

St. Louis has ranked in the top 15 of payroll over the last 20 years... More often than not they're near top 5. I would love that sustainable model of actually paying money to build a team.

[Brandon]

This just happened.

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/11/braves-sign-josh-donaldson.html

 

I figured I should post it since we wanted him here.

[cmoss84]

Donaldson 1 year/23 million to Braves. IF he stays healthy, great deal and they are going to be fun to watch! 

[Vanimal46]

Only a 1 year make good contract for $23 million. Sad the Twins weren't involved.

[Moosa105]

Disappointing to say the least but I wouldn’t have paid him $23 million for someone your hoping will have a bounce back year.

[Seth Stohs]

Yeah, I'm good with the Twins not being this team. 

[darin617]

Mike Moustakas would be the primary target if the Twins wanted to sign a 3rd basemen to a massive deal.

[PseudoSABR]

I'm surprised he got so much on a one year deal.  I was hoping the Twins might have a chance, but not at that price and length.

[TheLeviathan]

I hope Donaldson getting a one year, 23M deal puts an end to some of the low-ball prices people think are going to sign players.  If you want to play in FA, you're going to have to pony up.

 

(This is 20-25% more than most here were estimating)

[beckmt]

was disappointed with the Donaldson signing.  Twins have the money this year to play in the big one year contract area.  Do not know if Donaldson was worth the money, but taking the chance says volumes.  American League Central is weak this year Twins should take the chance to grab it (without ruining the future).  This is the correct type of move.  Remember the White Sox have a top 3 farm system and the money to spent (starting this year or next).  Do not want the Twins to become second banana in a weak division.  

Twins need to excite the fan base, this would be the type of move to help.  

[Mr. Brooks]

was disappointed with the Donaldson signing. Twins have the money this year to play in the big one year contract area. Do not know if Donaldson was worth the money, but taking the chance says volumes. American League Central is weak this year Twins should take the chance to grab it (without ruining the future). This is the correct type of move. Remember the White Sox have a top 3 farm system and the money to spent (starting this year or next). Do not want the Twins to become second banana in a weak division.

Twins need to excite the fan base, this would be the type of move to help.

The Braves won 90 games, and are close to Donaldson's hometown.

It might have taken a much bigger offer to lure him here.

[biggentleben]

 

I'm surprised he got so much on a one year deal.  I was hoping the Twins might have a chance, but not at that price and length.

 

That money clipped out options and basically all game-play incentives. It's exactly what he was paid last season. His incentives will be for awards and then to hit the market again next year, hopefully after a healthy, productive season in the middle of the lineup for a team playing in October.

 

For the Braves, one year with no options makes a ton of sense, as they are looking to stock up on draft picks in lieu of having IFA money, so guys that would make qualifying offer guys (Donaldson has never received one) after 2019 make prime trade targets as well. I'd expect that now that the collective bargaining picks have been announced, they have been a trade target for Atlanta as well in deals.

[biggentleben]

 

The Braves won 90 games, and are close to Donaldson's hometown.
It might have taken a much bigger offer to lure him here.

 

Yeah, I have been predicting this since about April. Donaldson cut off extension talks when Anthopoulos left Toronto. They have a very good relationship.

[Vanimal46]

The Reds and RP Raisel Iglesias agree to a 3/$24.125 MM contract, covering his last 3 years of arbitration. They don't gain extra years of control, but they do have cost certainty now. Maybe that's what they needed to do in order to trade him. Who knows.

[Vanimal46]

 

No surprise here.

[bird]

 

It is a mess, I want them to cut half of the roster, salvage what they can. I don't think they're close though unless they can fix what's left. They need to develop their Betts and Bogaerts, Lindor and Rameriz, Correa and Bregman. It was supposed to be Buxton and Sano. If that's somehow still possible great, if it's not, it better be Lewis and Kirilloff, if it's not them either we as fans will just continue to be screwed over. They have to figure out how to create their own star players.

 

 

Not really a rebuttal here, and not especially on point, but I tend to go here: you just named six players, and none of them were available for the Twins to draft. I think everyone agrees we've been snake-bit by Buxton, but still, he's posted higher WAR than all but two of the top ten selections in that draft (Correa and Gausman). I find that interesting. My apologies.

 

I guess I think it's less of a mess than most though. First, because we have the resources (cash, prospect currency, FA opportunity, a FO predisposed to action, and competitive dynamics) to turn things around very quickly. The holes are fillable. Second, because the immense talent of Buxton and Sano gives me greater hope than I'd have with lesser talents for a turnaround, especially if Sano can ditch his demons better than, say Delmon did. Third, because I think Lewis and Kirilloff (and perhaps Larnach?) are the real deal and closer to becoming transcendent contributors than people generally think. 

 

Fix the BP with two premium additions, add a front line starter or have someone emerge a la Gibson (Pineda?), and have Baldelli and crew outmanage the last group, an easy task IMO.

[nicksaviking]

 

The Reds and RP Raisel Iglesias agree to a 3/$24.125 MM contract, covering his last 3 years of arbitration. They don't gain extra years of control, but they do have cost certainty now. Maybe that's what they needed to do in order to trade him. Who knows.

 

I think the need for the extension was due to a really odd original contract which is now not allowed. He could like opt out of arbitration early last year but didn't but then could opt back in again this year. It sounded really bizarre.

[bird]

 

Prospects are without a doubt the most overvalued commodity in baseball. We talk about taking advantage of market inefficiencies, and I can't think of a bigger inefficiency in the game than hoarding prospects.

The Twins could have filled out a nice MLB squad by now if they traded 'valuable' prospects for established MLB talent. Instead there's an irrational need to keep all of these guys and watch over 50% of them fail.

 

As you might guess, I'd push back at you and Chief on this topic by re-phrasing your statements.

 

Successful prospects are few and far between, but the elite ones are actually underrated more often than overrated in terms of how they transform teams as pros. The prospects who are vastly overrated come from the unwashed masses of the second half of the first round and beyond, where the odds of better than replacement value drops to less than 25% and the chances of a Trout-like discovery are nominal.

 

Your second paragraph is valid, but let's not assume this FO is Ryan 2.0.

 

One other thing to think about: If the FO dangled Gordon, Rooker, and Gonsalves out there, how many of the current holes will those three Top 10 Twins prospects fill? I'm not sure the inefficiencies are very substantial when it comes to prospects for big leaguer trades, Yelich examples aside.

[Mike Sixel]

https://twitter.com/Joelsherman1/status/1067881836544761856?s=19

 

No surprise here.

A rumour! What an exciting time we live in....

[bird]

 

St. Louis has ranked in the top 15 of payroll over the last 20 years... More often than not they're near top 5. I would love that sustainable model of actually paying money to build a team.

 

 

Good point, although I think it's instructive to think about which came first, successful talent emerging or payroll increases. I think the payroll comes later. They're damn good at moving assets to their advantage.

 

I believe the key to sustainability is asset management, maintaining asset values throughout the system, risk management, and smart decisions about selling over-valued assets for under-valued assets. Falvey hasn't been particularly impressive yet when it comes to the turnover game. I think he may just now be ready to be slightly more active. He has increased asset value in the minors appreciably. However, his MLB assets are not over-valued by the league. I would suggest the MLB assets are a bit under-valued here on TD because we tend to think of that value as a function of the W-L record.

[biggentleben]

 

No surprise here.

 

Had a talk with someone near to Corbin who told me that he's likely going to have a decision Monday. He got an offer that nearly ended his free agency in Philadelphia, but he wanted to give teams a chance to beat it over the next few days.

[biggentleben]

 

Good point, although I think it's instructive to think about which came first, successful talent emerging or payroll increases. I think the payroll comes later. They're damn good at moving assets to their advantage.

 

I believe the key to sustainability is asset management, maintaining asset values throughout the system, risk management, and smart decisions about selling over-valued assets for under-valued assets. Falvey hasn't been particularly impressive yet when it comes to the turnover game. I think he may just now be ready to be slightly more active. He has increased asset value in the minors appreciably. However, his MLB assets are not over-valued by the league. I would suggest the MLB assets are a bit under-valued here on TD because we tend to think of that value as a function of the W-L record.

 

The Cardinals have been well-run for years on the development side, having some of the best farm system coaching in the game. There's a reason they consistently turn 13th round picks into productive major leaguers. That had to be built before their current run, however, as the team had fallen away from that model in the late-80s/early-90s.

 

Once you have a sustaining farm system and a development system that will continue to create major league players out of the players that are put into that farm system, whether they're top 5 picks or #30 overall picks, you will see plenty of success. Also, don't fool yourself into thinking the Cardinals don't go big on finding talent. They scout the top prospects in every draft to attempt to snag an elite talent that falls. Sometimes it works (so far with Nolan Gorman), sometimes it fails miserably (Delvin Perez), but it's a way to get elite-level raw talent into your system at a pick level where typically that player isn't usually found. That kind of scouting takes time to set up as well. Finally, the Cardinals have been very invested internationally in recent years. The big 2016 Braves signing class that got taken away from them? Many in the game believe the Cardinals were major whistle-blowers on the Braves as multiple reports came out that the Cardinals out-bid the Braves on Maitan, Severino, and Juan Contreras, but all three remained with the Braves.

 

The Twins have been building a system in that way over the last few years. It's been incredibly impressive to see the way the Twins develop arms and young bats in the system. Now it just needs to happen at the big leagues with a few guys for fans to see the fruits of that labor.

[PseudoSABR]

[Vanimal46]

https://twitter.com/JeffPassan/status/1068260343397404672

I have a feeling the Dads are going to be very active this offseason.

[PseudoSABR]

 

I have a feeling the Dads are going to be very active this offseason.

That's not always a good thing.  Who else did they bring in that offseason they acquired Matt Kemp? Myers?  I feel like they've flopped recently in terms of their big moves.

[Mike Sixel]

 

That's not always a good thing.  Who else did they bring in that offseason they acquired Matt Kemp? Myers?  I feel like they've flopped recently in terms of their big moves.

 

Is that worse than sitting around and waiting for prospects that aren't available or good? What is the better alternative? Also, if you sign guys for more than 1 year deals (as a Twins fan, you might not be aware that is allowed), then you still have them when the youngsters are available......

 

And, if you don't trust the FO to sign good players, then they shouldn't have their job anyway....

[PseudoSABR]

 

Is that worse than sitting around and waiting for prospects that aren't available or good? What is the better alternative? Also, if you sign guys for more than 1 year deals (as a Twins fan, you might not be aware that is allowed), then you still have them when the youngsters are available......

 

And, if you don't trust the FO to sign good players, then they shouldn't have their job anyway....

Well, when you spend both prospects and dollars and don't end up with wins, I think that's pretty bad.   But I agree, coveting prospects doesn't always work out, but the Padres have made some questionable moves recently (I think including signing Hosmer for such a long deal in what seemed like a depressed market last year).

[SF Twins Fan]

 

 

[ashbury]

Swarzak but no Duensing????