Damning article in the Washington Post re: Pressly / Analytics

[USAFChief]

Because the return was that good.

Really? Based on you saying so?

 

Besides the questions surrounding EVERY minor league player, these two aren't really that special.

 

Celestino just made it to rookie ball, for Pete's sake.

[Jacksson]

I dunn. Seems like he got into trouble in MN when he used his fastball to set up his curve and change. Also, when he couldn'

t locate his fastball for strikes, the opposition pounced on his curve and change. Molitor, Pitching Coach, Bullpen Coach and Catchers, just didn't know what to do with him so the team gave up and traded him; now he is with a team that knows how to use him.

[mngopherguy]

 

2 years in, and they still can't explain this to pitchers........there's always next year*

 

*the annual Twins' slogan, btw....

 

 

I don't even know why any analytics is needed to tell him to through his best pitch more often.  

[TheLeviathan]

 

Really? Based on you saying so?

Besides the questions surrounding EVERY minor league player, these two aren't really that special.

Celestino just made it to rookie ball, for Pete's sake.

 

Jorge Alcala is a pretty interesting prospect.  Josh Hader was a very similar prospect when the Brewers traded for him.

 

If you want to mimic Milwaukee, you should take note on how active they were selling pieces in the past that made their buying possible.  You know, like some of us have been imploring you to recognize for months.

 

You can't always have your foot on the gas.  Sometimes you have to refuel before you stomp your foot down again.  Granted, the Twins have never put their foot down much, but that was a different FO.  I can only judge this one by the moves they made.

 

They brought in a pitching coach that recognized spin rate and turned Pressley from a backend bullpen guy to a valuable piece.  They recognize the right time to reload assets.  Now the test comes in seeing how the assets they acquired turn out - either as trade bait or as future pieces.  But your logic and strategy is faulty.  As faulty as the one you keep criticizing, just the other side of the spectrum.  (You especially don't get to crow about wanting to be Milwaukee.  You don't.  Because the pieces Milwaukee used to add Yelich and others came from selling off Lucroy, Gomez, and others)

[Mike Sixel]

How many articles will it take to actually criticize the team, when a player says his new team is better at this stuff? He literally said that.

 

Two years in, they aren't good enough at this yet. We are constantly told they can't spend with the big boys. We also seem to not be able to coach like the other good teams. Not a good combination.

[TheLeviathan]

 

How many articles will it take to actually criticize the team, when a player says his new team is better at this stuff? He literally said that.

Two years in, they aren't good enough at this yet. We are constantly told they can't spend with the big boys. We also seem to not be able to coach like the other good teams. Not a good combination.

 

They need to be better, but let's also be fair.....every team seems to be inferior to the Astros in this regard.

 

But I hope it's something they are working on.  I also hope they're workign to find their own "cheat code" type finds like spin rates.

[DocBauer]

The real bite in the butt is, IMO, it will take time to see how well the return actually pans out. Such is the case for most trades.

 

And I am not going to bash the FO, or the coaching staff, directly in any way here. They took a rule 5 guy, hid him, and worked with him to turn him in to a really nice reliever. (That's how you HOPE a rule 5 selection works). For the most part, everyone involved did their job, and did it the right way. And the reported evidence states that they did. And I GET the FO saying; "Not going to win thjs season, but here is a tradeable assets to bring more talent back". That's actually what they are supposed to do.

 

Honestly, from drafts to using international money, to most all trades the FO has made, I feel they've been pretty solid and inventive in all the moves they've made. But I think they blew this one. And not because of this article. I mean, a talented reliever joins a good organization and a strong staff and isn't over used and does well? Are we surprised?

 

I think they blew it because they looked too far forward, and didn't appreciate enough what they already had. Let's hope Reed recovers and Hoody gets back on track again. But how much better does the 2019 Pen look with the "same" Pressly...not over used...along with May and Rogers before we make additions and hope for one, or both, of those guys to rebound?

[Platoon]

I am not sure if the FO can be properly critiqued yet. Being forced to keep Molitor, and then after they started the "rebuild" at the deadline in 2017 the team for some reason started to hit the ball for a few months like the '27 Yankees, but got destroyed by the '17 Yankees. This forced their hand again over the winter. That they brought in all short term guys could mean that they didn't really buy into the contention issue at the time. Which btw, would make them correct. The injuries and suspension didn't help at all, but so far this group of players remains an unfulfilled fantasy. They are still borderline young enough to turn around, but the clock is ticking.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

They need to be better, but let's also be fair.....every team seems to be inferior to the Astros in this regard.

Yep, and the Astros have had 7-8 years to figure all this out. The Twins front office has had all of two years to rebuild this thing with an entirely new analytical perspective.

 

If we're in year four or five and the Twins are still getting stomped by a bunch of teams in the analytics department, that's a big problem.

[big dog]

I think one small piece of this that hasn't really been mentioned is the way he apparently "bought in" to what the coaches were saying.  That makes it sound like if he had been told that in Minnesota, he apparently wasn't processing it very well.  That's a knock on the manager and coaches, but isn't it also at least somewhat on the player?

[Major League Ready]

 

Yep, and the Astros have had 7-8 years to figure all this out. The Twins front office has had all of two years to rebuild this thing with an entirely new analytical perspective.

 

If we're in year four or five and the Twins are still getting stomped by a bunch of teams in the analytics department, that's a big problem.

I agree with you in concept but it should be noted that this is not the type of problem that requires years to build elite capabilities. Similar deficiencies are often identified in other industries. It is not uncommon for the leadership of the deficient organization to craft a plan to bring their organization to that elite level within a couple years. This is actually a relatively simple problem to fix. 

 

We don't really know how wide the gap is between us and Houston but the quote from Pressly is a bit concerning. These are the kinds of things a mid-market team has to excel in as it impacts so many aspects of building a winner and the cost is modest in relative terms.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I agree with you in concept but it should be noted that this is not the type of problem that requires years to build elite capabilities. Similar deficiencies are often identified in other industries. It is not uncommon for the leadership of the deficient organization to craft a plan to bring their organization to that elite level within a couple years. This is actually a relatively simple problem to fix.

I agree that it's not a problem that will take a decade to fix but I think you're underselling how hard it is to find quality talent in a field that's rapidly expanding. It's not as if the Twins are hiring in a vacuum, they need to bid against 20-something other teams for new talent and find a way to poach experienced talent from other organizations.

 

If you've paid any attention to the deep learning and AI market in Silicon Valley, you'll know just how ferocious that kind of situation can get. There's a limited talent pool and everybody has to draw from it.

[Vanimal46]

I agree with you in concept but it should be noted that this is not the type of problem that requires years to build elite capabilities. Similar deficiencies are often identified in other industries. It is not uncommon for the leadership of the deficient organization to craft a plan to bring their organization to that elite level within a couple years. This is actually a relatively simple problem to fix.

 

We don't really know how wide the gap is between us and Houston but the quote from Pressly is a bit concerning. These are the kinds of things a mid-market team has to excel in as it impacts so many aspects of building a winner and the cost is modest in relative terms.

Concur. The Twins aren't reinventing the wheel here building algorithms and video analysis systems from scratch. 2 years is plenty of time to build a foundation and start seeing some noticable improvements from players.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Concur. The Twins aren't reinventing the wheel here building algorithms and video analysis systems from scratch. 2 years is plenty of time to build a foundation and start seeing some noticable improvements from players.

Well, to give concrete examples, the Twins snagged Kalk away from the Rays just ten months ago.

 

And they approached Presley correctly, telling him to change his selection. That likely had Kalk’s fingerprints all over it.

 

But still, ten months. I’m not sure what people are expecting. The Astros probably look back at their 2012 analytics staff and chuckle about it, too.

[USAFChief]

 

Jorge Alcala is a pretty interesting prospect.  Josh Hader was a very similar prospect when the Brewers traded for him.

 

If you want to mimic Milwaukee, you should take note on how active they were selling pieces in the past that made their buying possible.  You know, like some of us have been imploring you to recognize for months.

 

You can't always have your foot on the gas.  Sometimes you have to refuel before you stomp your foot down again.  Granted, the Twins have never put their foot down much, but that was a different FO.  I can only judge this one by the moves they made.

 

They brought in a pitching coach that recognized spin rate and turned Pressley from a backend bullpen guy to a valuable piece.  They recognize the right time to reload assets.  Now the test comes in seeing how the assets they acquired turn out - either as trade bait or as future pieces.  But your logic and strategy is faulty.  As faulty as the one you keep criticizing, just the other side of the spectrum.  (You especially don't get to crow about wanting to be Milwaukee.  You don't.  Because the pieces Milwaukee used to add Yelich and others came from selling off Lucroy, Gomez, and others)

Can we at least acknowledge the Pressly trade wasn't like the others? Pressly was performing at a high level, and had a full year of control left. A prime candidate for a three year deal, as well.

 

They'll spend more this winter trying to replace him, on someone less talented.

 

And if we're speaking of crowing, you get to crow when/if the two prospects acquired amount to anything remotely close to Pressly's value. For the record, they weren't even valuable to their respective minor league teams this year.

[Vanimal46]

Well, to give concrete examples, the Twins snagged Kalk away from the Rays just ten months ago.

 

And they approached Presley correctly, telling him to change his selection. That likely had Kalk’s fingerprints all over it.

 

But still, ten months. I’m not sure what people are expecting. The Astros probably look back at their 2012 analytics staff and chuckle about it, too.

I expect this isn't the first time Falvey and Levine have implemented systems to generate the information they need to develop players. I also expect they have the people in place to decipher through the systems and translate the information to the coaching staff and players.

[USAFChief]

It should also be pointed out one of the primary things Pressly is doing differently is throwing a slider, primarily to LH hitters. That seems to me much more important than a relatively minor tweak in FB/CB percentage.

 

Unless of course the speculation about the Astros having their pitchers use pine tar to increase spin rates is true.

[TheLeviathan]

 

And if we're speaking of crowing, you get to crow when/if the two prospects acquired amount to anything remotely close to Pressly's value. For the record, they weren't even valuable to their respective minor league teams this year.

 

I'm only happy with the direction because it is the kind of move smart, aggressive teams make.  Like Milwaukee.  It is a simple fact that their aggressive offseason and successful season, was made possible by selling just as much as buying.

 

I implore you to recognize that going forward.  Like all trades, the story will be told going forward.  We'll see if the Twins made good use of the right strategy, but make no mistake - they did.  And to bring it back to the topic at hand - Pressley's comments make it clear the team has room to get better.  But his situation also shows how far we've come.  There is ZERO chance Terry Ryan's organization recognizes how to make him better and helps establish him as such a valuable player.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I expect this isn't the first time Falvey and Levine have implemented systems to generate the information they need to develop players. I also expect they have the people in place to decipher through the systems and translate the information to the coaching staff and players.

How? From where? And do you think that staff is running at 100% efficiency and capacity?

 

Falvey and Levine inherited almost nothing. They stuck with some of it for awhile to evaluate and then discarded some of those options (Goin, for example). That takes time. Then they had to go find other people qualified to do that job the way they want. That takes time. Then that person needs to get up to speed, implement their own systems, and hire people to carry out those tasks. Again, that takes time.

 

The Twins analytics staff is in much better shape than it was two years ago, as evidenced by what they did with Pressly this season. But it's going to take time to fully flesh out that kind of system and catch elite teams like the Astros, if that's even possible at all.

[mazeville]

 

Per the article:

Added Manager A.J. Hinch: “The beauty of what we have going on right now is there’s an immediate buy-in when guys come over, because of some previous success stories. … Our analytics team, our front office does a great job of providing information, providing thoughts, ideas. But it circles back to the player. I always credit the player, because he has to be the guy — he is the guy with the ball in his hand.”

So how did you draw the conclusion this is a reason why Molitor was fired? Shouldn't we be calling for the analytics team and front office to be fired?

As AJ Hinch said, they're the ones providing the thoughts and ideas. The rest is up to the player.

 

 

1. Front office not gonna fire itself.

2. Molitor was clearly fired over communications issues, and based on what others have reported concerns about how things get translated to some of the players, especially the younger players, was definitely a problem. 

3. Twins people were talking about Pressly's curveball for some time. So it's not like Houston just discovered this.

 

[Vanimal46]

How? From where? And do you think that staff is running at 100% efficiency and capacity?

 

Falvey and Levine inherited almost nothing. They stuck with some of it for awhile to evaluate and then discarded some of those options (Goin, for example). That takes time. Then they had to go find other people qualified to do that job the way they want. That takes time. Then that person needs to get up to speed, implement their own systems, and hire people to carry out those tasks. Again, that takes time.

 

The Twins analytics staff is in much better shape than it was two years ago, as evidenced by what they did with Pressly this season. But it's going to take time to fully flesh out that kind of system and catch elite teams like the Astros, if that's even possible at all.

I doubt they're at 100% capacity yet, but 2 years is a lot of time man. Even when they started with nothing in place. We should be at the point now where we start seeing noticable improvements from players in the minors and majors. Otherwise we all chose the wrong profession in life if 2 years lead time isn't enough to start seeing results.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I doubt they're at 100% capacity yet, but 2 years is a lot of time man. Even when they started with nothing in place. We should be at the point now where we start seeing noticable improvements from players in the minors and majors. Otherwise we all chose the wrong profession in life if 2 years lead time isn't enough to start seeing results.

But the point is that they *did* see results. Pressly turned into a very good pitcher based on what the front office saw in the advanced numbers.

 

Did the Astros improve upon that? Sure. But the Twins saw some of the same data and started the process.

[ND-Fan]

The Astro's have had success with pitchers improving their stats from what has been discussed here. I think there's more to the stats improvement than just the pitcher. The Astro's are loaded team with talent there up the middle defense is exceptional and then add in Bregman at third who's bat would have carried any team. This team has above average defense and quality catching factors that lead into improved pitching because it creates confidence that as long as you keep the ball in park its going to be caught and turned into out. This creates confidence in pitchers to try to throw differently than they have before and if they have success it feeds on it self. Last year when the Twins were having success it was noted the improvement in defense helped whole team improve. This year we saw the fall off of this defense most of it can be explained by Castro at catcher lost for the season, Buxton lost to season to injury, Polanco suspended for 80 games, and finally we find out that Dozier had been playing hurt from early April. These injuries and happenings doomed this season. The problem is that we didn't develop any new young players much because of these injuries we had a few finds in Cave and now at end of the season Astudillo but because the way baseball is now of service time we didn't bring up some young talent see what they could do and what they needed to improve. But Houston is that sweet spot as franchise where there players are either just past their prime development or coming to their prime and they have learned to win on their way up in Major league baseball something doesn't happen to often. Second their front office is identifying top talent and acquiring it by using their farm system. Then you add in good coaching and everyone looks like geniuses. The bottom line to all this is baseball people that are scouting and identifying the talent for this organization by what ever method they use. It still takes people yet today that are good at identifying talent by what ever method they use. The question for the Twins is the talent they gave up in Pressley did they get equal or greater amount of talent in return. The problem here is it may be years until full answer to this question is known. The reason so many here dislike this trade is we traded away a piece that could have help us win now or next year but the fact is Falvey showed what they are actually doing with this trade. This trade put talent in place to win 3 years from now not next year or year after its for years after this. This is what irritates me most when ownership and management won't tell the truth on their plan and try to PR there way through this process. Because they loose the faith of fans believing in organization and for sure kills any faith and buying in of the players into organization when they are being deceptive to them. 

[RaymondLuxuryYacht]

 

Really? Based on you saying so?

Besides the questions surrounding EVERY minor league player, these two aren't really that special.

Celestino just made it to rookie ball, for Pete's sake.

Really? Based on you saying so?

[Shaitan]

 

I think one small piece of this that hasn't really been mentioned is the way he apparently "bought in" to what the coaches were saying.  That makes it sound like if he had been told that in Minnesota, he apparently wasn't processing it very well.  That's a knock on the manager and coaches, but isn't it also at least somewhat on the player?

Agreed. Sometimes when you change jobs you see things from a new perspective. Even if it was right in front of your eyes before.

 

Going from a losing clubhouse to a winning clubhouse will do that. 

[Major League Ready]

 

How? From where? And do you think that staff is running at 100% efficiency and capacity?

 

Falvey and Levine inherited almost nothing. They stuck with some of it for awhile to evaluate and then discarded some of those options (Goin, for example). That takes time. Then they had to go find other people qualified to do that job the way they want. That takes time. Then that person needs to get up to speed, implement their own systems, and hire people to carry out those tasks. Again, that takes time.

 

The Twins analytics staff is in much better shape than it was two years ago, as evidenced by what they did with Pressly this season. But it's going to take time to fully flesh out that kind of system and catch elite teams like the Astros, if that's even possible at all.

 

I agree and we don't have nearly enough basis to come to any conclusion. However, the new F/O has had enough time to implement process and practices that should have us very close to as capable as the top teams in terms of analytics. I am not sure just how long it should take to be on par without considerably more information but this type of transformation is done in every industry.

 

My team did an operations assessment for one of the most prestigious and respected cancer research and treatment organizations in the world. I am under an NDA so I have to speak in very general terms but it suffices to say the performance metrics are far more complex and there are a lot more measures in that type of application. The result of that engagement was a 3-year plan to make them world-class. We audited the results 2 ½ years in an there was no question they had elevated to the top 1% when compared to all US companies across all industries. Building a MLB analytics team should not take 6-8 years.

 

To be fair, improvements in that specific environment were more about systems and process than personnel. However, the requisite analytical skillset is not uncommon. The combination of that skillset and baseball acumen was virtually non-existent just a few years ago. Personnel with this skillset could be brought in (perhaps as interns) and this capability could be built to an elite level in 3-5 years.

[Mike Sixel]

I'll ask again....for those saying give them time....how much? Because at the largest healthcare company in the US, we built a new claims system from scratch, connected it to hundreds of other applications, hired and trained hundreds of operations people, and rolled it out in (well, I don't know how that part went, they laid me off just before first go live).....less than three years.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I'll ask again....for those saying give them time....how much? Because at the largest healthcare company in the US, we built a new claims system from scratch, connected it to hundreds of other applications, hired and trained hundreds of operations people, and rolled it out in (well, I don't know how that part went, they laid me off just before first go live).....less than three years.

I don't have a timeline because we know so little about the mechanics of it all, really.

 

What I do know is that improvements have been made. I expect to see continued improvement. Analytics departments are moving targets and the Twins have to chase teams that are also improving at the same time.

 

As the long as the gap continues to narrow (and it almost certainly has in the past two years), I will consider that sufficient. If you close a gap for a long enough time, the gap ceases to exist.

 

I like what the front office has done, mostly. Kalk was a great pickup, as was the football guy Adler. Zoll is... interesting, but so young that it's hard to judge because he has so little experience. Both of those guys were hired almost exactly one year ago and Kalk was hired just last December.

 

Again, I'm not sure what everyone is expecting here. Houston is literally the cream of the crop in this regard and I'd be stunned if the Twins could catch them in only two years (most of one of those years being an evaluation period so more like one+ year). I think some of you are doing a disservice to what Houston has spent over half a decade putting together; if it was that easy to replicate, half of baseball should be their equal and suddenly, we're not talking about how savvy Houston is right now. If it was easy, everybody would be doing it.

[Mike Sixel]

So, basically, there is no timeline in which we can question their results? I mean, I want that job.

 

And, I know you aren't saying this.....but the player literally said the Twins weren't good at this stuff yet. Or, not good enough. I feel like the goal posts on this team move every year, whether it is wins and losses or progress on process, we never seem to have the "right" to be disappointed in the slow pace of progress here.

[nicksaviking]

 

I'll ask again....for those saying give them time....how much? Because at the largest healthcare company in the US, we built a new claims system from scratch, connected it to hundreds of other applications, hired and trained hundreds of operations people, and rolled it out in (well, I don't know how that part went, they laid me off just before first go live).....less than three years.

 

What is it you're hoping to see? I know from past posts that you want to see some long term free agent deals but I don't know why you'd assume those aren't coming. We've had two completely different off seasons from this front office. The first they did next to nothing, maybe they were evaluating what they already had in the system, maybe they just didn't know what they were doing. Last year they chased after the big names but weren't able to land them and instead settled for being very active on 1-2 year deals. 

 

So far these guys have exhibited no patters to indicate what future behavior will be, I don't know why anyone would make assumptions, good or bad, as to what the MO is for the new front office.