Article: Twins Daily Roundtable: The Looming Mauer Decision

[wavedog]

Joe certainly has his limitations but given the current 40 man position players - he is one of the better hitters and fielders on the team.  That probably says more about our roster but we have so many holes to fill I am inclined to bring him back for another year - maybe we go year to year.   I don't want to pay him $12-$15M though - I am hoping for $5M - $8M.   

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

So your theory is, Mauer said “no” to a trade?

As I said, that’d be well within his rights. Just don’t turn around and tell me he cares about the Twins. I’ve been told repeatedly that the Twins were smart to trade expiring contracts. Well, there’s one that didn’t leave.

 

My theory would be that no one wanted him. Which contenders needed 1B help that Joe would have been an upgrade?

[jmlease1]

 

The Twins could use some of the large amount of money available next year but are these numbers good enough for the 12,000,000 to 15,000,000 he may ask for?.:

 

MLB current rankings:

 

Runs  - 49 -   153rd (for a lead off hitter)

SB's  -    0 -   381st

HRs   -   5 -    292nd 

AVG. - .277 -  51st 

OBP -  .347 -  56th

RBI -    39 -    200th

SLG. - .375 -  135th

WAR -  .9   -   212th

OPS -  .723 -  113th

BB     -  43   -  94th

 

Is there better options for the team to look at ?.

 

If he asks for $12-15M he will be told no. (and laughed at behind closed doors, probably) There will be precisely zero market for him at anything near that number. To other teams, he's probably only looking at offers in the $5-7M range. To the Twins he would be worth slightly more in that he has greater value to them as the lifelong Twin, the hometown kid, etc. Frankly, I'd be rather surprised if he got an offer higher than 1 year at $6M from another team.

[Number3]

I honestly believe that Mauer has been a drag on the whole team for several years. Twins must "cut bait" after this awful season which started with promise and will end in total disarray. Mauer is as much symbolic as anything and as long as he stays with the team the worse than simply mediocre Mauer era will continue. Twins better start '19 with no Mauer and, by the way, no Molitor.

[jmlease1]

 

Joe Mauer is not the problem on this team. Start with ownership and the front office. Next year should be a definite and substantial move forward. If not.....then look at ownership. Any successful entity would.

 

Look at ownership? There's zero indication that the Pohlads are interested in selling the team, and there's absolutely no way they could be forced to sell. Acting if there's a way to "change" ownership is a waste of time.

 

The front office is still pretty new. This ain't football where the system is set up to enable 1 year turnarounds. The moves they've made have all made sense when they've made them (even the Buxton decision is defensible, just brings different sets of problems), and the FO can't control player performance or injuries. Right now they seem to be drafting well and making reasonable FA choices. Panicking and going for FO reset is how franchises really flail and fail.

 

Logan Morrison is having his worst season as a pro. Brian Dozier fell off the table this year. Sano & Buxton have both been injured for long stretches (and ineffective for others). Castro got hurt. Santana got hurt. Polanco got suspended. These are not things that FO can really control...

[jimmer]

I honestly believe that Mauer has been a drag on the whole team for several years. Twins must "cut bait" after this awful season which started with promise and will end in total disarray. Mauer is as much symbolic as anything and as long as he stays with the team the worse than simply mediocre Mauer era will continue. Twins better start '19 with no Mauer and, by the way, no Molitor.

Yeah, I'm sure once Mauer is gone, this team will turn right around. Edited September 6, 2018 by jimmer

[nicksaviking]

I'd bet a discussion about the possibility of a limited role in 2019 has been discussed and I think he retires instead. It would seem odd that there isn't going to be a farewell tour, but this is Mauer after all, he's never seemed too comfortable when a microphone is put in front of him. He'd probably prefer to go out quietly.

[bobs]

 

He will have played less than 100 games at first  base 2 of the last three years. He has never once played in 140 games in any season in his career. Ever. Three of the last five years he hasn't started 100 games.....

 

Where do people come up with starting 140 games, given that?

It's just sort of a best-case plan.  That's where you start.  If he gets dinged, then the plan changes.

[FormerMinnasotan]

While Mauer has had a great career here I don’t want him back. First off he’s past his prime and would be lucky to bat over .300, has even more diminished power, and has some considerable concussion concerns. If the Twins bring him back we all know they’ll over pay for the home town kid. If he was even 5 yrs younger I’d want to resign him, but now he’s past his prime and probably won’t be a part of any potential contending teams in the near future. Holding on to Mauer now is nothing more than holding onto the nestalga of the Mauer of old, nothing more.

[Steve Lein]

 

So.... if he is not good enough for the Twins, why in heaven he should be good enough for the Red Sox or another perennial contender?

 

Mauer smacking the green monster would had been a valid fantasy  c.2009-2010  

 

Just saying this to each of you who pointed it out: You missed my final sentence.

 

"Have maintained he would have hit .400 there in his prime."

 

[Steve Lein]

 

He might even be worse...he rarely hits the ball over the LFer, and with the LFer playing shallower, more of those soft liners to left might get caught instead of falling for singles.

 

Not the soft-liners I'm talking about. It's the ones he hits to within 30 feet of the wall. The ones that went out in the Metrodome but don't come close at Target Field. (he still hits a lot of those).

[USAFChief]

 

Not the soft-liners I'm talking about. It's the ones he hits to within 30 feet of the wall. The ones that went out in the Metrodome but don't come close at Target Field. (he still hits a lot of those).

Maybe.

 

But I don't think Target Field has anything to do with it.

 

Left field dimensions at the Metrodome: 343 to left, 385 to the power alley.

 

Left field dimensions at Target Field: 339 to left, 377 to the power alley.

 

The fence in Target Field is one foot higher.

 

He only had the one season where a good number of fly balls snuck into the left field seats at the dome. 

 

We're both speculating, of course, but I doubt playing in Fenway would have significantly altered his career numbers. Perhaps a few more doubles, and a few less singles. 

[yarnivek1972]

As for Mauer...why was he the only expiring contract not traded this year? Did he exercise his no trade clause?

 

Entirely within his rights, of course, but what does that say about him?

Matt Belisle wasn’t traded.

 

 

[TwinsCD]

I'd like to see the Twins bring him back.  I think he can still be a positive contributor over the long haul of a season and if he's able to stay healthy.  Whether that's for 1 or 2 years and at what price, I think that will be determined by how they do with offseason acquisitions.  There's always room in the lineup for someone who can hit around .280.  It's up to the manager to figure out how to handle that properly.  I'm not confident about that side of things, though.

 

If I was Mauer, I might have already asked my agent to test the waters out there to certain traditionally-contending teams to gauge interest for 2019.  He's certainly running out of time to be on a team that wins a playoff GAME, let alone a series, and that's unlikely to come if he stays in a Twins uniform.  Why wouldn't he have done this prior to the trading deadline?  Who knows.  Maybe there wasn't any interest.  But if he wants to cap off his career with a ring, that's a route he should look into.  And I say that despite being a staunch proponent of loyalty to one team.

 

Whatever he and/or the team decides, it's been a ton of fun watching his career and I think we can all agree that we shake our heads at what could have been if he had been able to stay even 90% healthy throughout his career.

[Tomj14]

 

If your goal is a farewell, feel good tour for Mauer, then take the safe route, which few will criticize, and give Mauer a one yr contract. Accommodate Joe Mauer and his fan base, but deprioritize winning.

My personal option would be Donaldson at third, Sano at first. It might bomb spectacularly, but it also might succeed spectacularly. Mauer offers no such upside.

How does Mauer "deprioritize winning."? Which year? I see nobody ready in the system ready to take the job and no real free agents either.

I love your idea on Donaldson and Sano. Both have a history of injuries and not having a capable back up for that plan would be a complete failure of the FO.

In that scenario Mauer would be a great fit for 80 -100 games at 1B and DH.

 

Now if the Twins FO can figure out a way to improve on Mauer and have somebody(s) ready to fill in for injuries or if Sano has another year like this year, I would be 100% behind that.

[yarnivek1972]

Look at ownership? There's zero indication that the Pohlads are interested in selling the team, and there's absolutely no way they could be forced to sell. Acting if there's a way to "change" ownership is a waste of time.

 

The front office is still pretty new. This ain't football where the system is set up to enable 1 year turnarounds. The moves they've made have all made sense when they've made them (even the Buxton decision is defensible, just brings different sets of problems), and the FO can't control player performance or injuries. Right now they seem to be drafting well and making reasonable FA choices. Panicking and going for FO reset is how franchises really flail and fail.

 

Logan Morrison is having his worst season as a pro. Brian Dozier fell off the table this year. Sano & Buxton have both been injured for long stretches (and ineffective for others). Castro got hurt. Santana got hurt. Polanco got suspended. These are not things that FO can really control...

Every pitch thrown by Matt Belisle, Tyler Kinley, David Hale. Every at bat by Chris Gimenez, Tommy Field, Gregorio Petit, Taylor Motter. These are things this FO CHOSE.

 

 

Note, I didn’t include Phil Hughes, because I believe Pohlad had to sign off on his DFA.

[Tomj14]

 

I honestly believe that Mauer has been a drag on the whole team for several years. Twins must "cut bait" after this awful season which started with promise and will end in total disarray. Mauer is as much symbolic as anything and as long as he stays with the team the worse than simply mediocre Mauer era will continue. Twins better start '19 with no Mauer and, by the way, no Molitor.

How has been Mauer been a drag besides Salary?

Did the Twins miss out on any free agents first basemen the last few year? I mean last year they went out and got the second rated in Morrison, and I am pretty sure nobody that signing Hosmer for the price San Diego paid would have been a good idea.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

How does Mauer "deprioritize winning."? Which year? I see nobody ready in the system ready to take the job and no real free agents either.

I love your idea on Donaldson and Sano. Both have a history of injuries and not having a capable back up for that plan would be a complete failure of the FO.

In that scenario Mauer would be a great fit for 80 -100 games at 1B and DH.

 

Now if the Twins FO can figure out a way to improve on Mauer and have somebody(s) ready to fill in for injuries or if Sano has another year like this year, I would be 100% behind that.

Tyler Austin is the system, and I don't see much saying that he couldn't out produce Mauer at the plate. Rooker isn't far behind.

 

Nelson Cruz solves the other half of the 1B/DH issue in FA. 

 

I'll maintain that Mauer would be fine as a 1B/DH/3B bench bat in a limited role. Whether Mauer views himself as such (and whether Molitor will play him accordingly) is the issue at hand. 

[Mike Sixel]

 

How does Mauer "deprioritize winning."? Which year? I see nobody ready in the system ready to take the job and no real free agents either.

I love your idea on Donaldson and Sano. Both have a history of injuries and not having a capable back up for that plan would be a complete failure of the FO.

In that scenario Mauer would be a great fit for 80 -100 games at 1B and DH.

 

Now if the Twins FO can figure out a way to improve on Mauer and have somebody(s) ready to fill in for injuries or if Sano has another year like this year, I would be 100% behind that.

 

Well, Tyler Austin is outperforming Mauer 2:1 in WAR in his time with the Twins.....in 1/6th the plate appearances, he has half the WAR.....that's with a BABIP of just .263......so, they have already found someone better. 

 

If by some miracle Austin kept up that pace over a full season, he'd be a top 10 1B in all of baseball......whereas Mauer is currently 15th. 

 

Now, if Mauer could somehow actually play 140 games (which he never has in his career, ever).....he might be a good player. But it's hard to carry a player that will likely play 100-120 games, max, at 1b/DH. 

[caninatl04]

Matt Belisle wasn’t traded.

 

Because the St. Paul Saints were good at relief pitcher.

 

I mean, who else would trade for Belisle.

[caninatl04]

A key question about resigning Mauer (aside for the $’s, obviously), is the next best alternative. If Joe is not resigned, who is the 1B for 2019? (By the way, I’m not worried about 2020– I think there a bunch of current Minor Leaguers who might be ready by then including, we hope, Kirilloff). If one pencils in, say, Sano, then that simply shifts the problem to 3B and presumes Sano returns to some kind of form.

 

Is it Austin?

[Steve Lein]

 

Maybe.

 

But I don't think Target Field has anything to do with it.

 

Left field dimensions at the Metrodome: 343 to left, 385 to the power alley.

 

Left field dimensions at Target Field: 339 to left, 377 to the power alley.

 

The fence in Target Field is one foot higher.

 

He only had the one season where a good number of fly balls snuck into the left field seats at the dome. 

 

We're both speculating, of course, but I doubt playing in Fenway would have significantly altered his career numbers. Perhaps a few more doubles, and a few less singles. 

 

Don't think of it in terms of dimensions.

 

Metrodome was completely enclosed, with air being sucked in/out throughout it. It also was, in general to demonstrate this idea, shaped like an upside down cone from the field up into the stands, and not at a very high angle. Imagine how the air flows in that situation...

 

Target field, is essentially a coffee can from the field up into the stands, with one area cut out where air pushes in (plaza), and then swirls throughout it. 

 

This is from 2010 after just a few games in Target Field, but the average home run distance had gone down 14 feet from the Metrodome (they also go much further into the details I'm talking about): http://www.espn.com/blog/statsinfo/post/_/id/4008/how-target-field-is-hurting-mauer-morneau 

 

That absolutely affected those balls Mauer hit. Instead of a row or two into the stands, they were warning track or shorter fly balls.

 

But I do agree in a way with your last sentence.

[Tomj14]

 

Well, Tyler Austin is outperforming Mauer 2:1 in WAR in his time with the Twins.....in 1/6th the plate appearances, he has half the WAR.....that's with a BABIP of just .263......so, they have already found someone better. 

 

If by some miracle Austin kept up that pace over a full season, he'd be a top 10 1B in all of baseball......whereas Mauer is currently 15th. 

 

Now, if Mauer could somehow actually play 140 games (which he never has in his career, ever).....he might be a good player. But it's hard to carry a player that will likely play 100-120 games, max, at 1b/DH. 

Good Point on Austin, Now how comfortable are Twins fans going to be going into next year with him and really nobody behind him?  Austin will be 28 at the start of next year (actually Saturday) with a total of 330 major league games, and on TD everybody hates the old guys and loves the shiny prospect, so if he has a bad start the call will be for Rooker even if he isn't ready. See Gordon!

IMO signing or not signing Mauer really depends on how the FO designs the 3b, 1b and DH positions next year.  

If the FO has a good plan with a back up plan besides an AAAA guy in triple A, I will be fine with or without Mauer.

[Tomj14]

 

Nelson Cruz solves the other half of the 1B/DH issue in FA. 

Can you picture the Twins letting Mauer go and signing a 38 year old? I don't

If the Twins sign Donaldson I don't see them getting another RH 1B/DH, but if they sign Esobar I think Nelson/Sano/Austin is a pretty good platoon.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Good Point on Austin, Now how comfortable are Twins fans going to be going into next year with him and really nobody behind him?  Austin will be 28 at the start of next year (actually Saturday) with a total of 330 major league games, and on TD everybody hates the old guys and loves the shiny prospect, so if he has a bad start the call will be for Rooker even if he isn't ready. See Gordon!

IMO signing or not signing Mauer really depends on how the FO designs the 3b, 1b and DH positions next year.  

If the FO has a good plan with a back up plan besides an AAAA guy in triple A, I will be fine with or without Mauer.

 

In my fantasy world (the more realistic one than sign Machado and Kershaw):

 

Twins sign/trade for a really good OF.....

 

Kepler and Austin split time at 1B with a bit of Sano and Garver thrown in.

 

DH:

Kepler, Austin, good OF, Sano, Garver, Rosario, eventually Rooker maybe even Kiriloff.

[USAFChief]

 

Can you picture the Twins letting Mauer go and signing a 38 year old? I don't

If the Twins sign Donaldson I don't see them getting another RH 1B/DH, but if they sign Esobar I think Nelson/Sano/Austin is a pretty good platoon.

Can you picture the Twins signing Mauer and adding a 1B/DH?

 

IMO, part of the problem with signing Mauer is they WON'T upgrade. They'll go with Mauer at 1b, and be done with it. And we'll see Ehire Adrianza play games at 1B again, with Robbie Grossman your DH.

[Tomj14]

 

Can you picture the Twins signing Mauer and adding a 1B/DH?

 

IMO, part of the problem with signing Mauer is they WON'T upgrade. They'll go with Mauer at 1b, and be done with it. And we'll see Ehire Adrianza play games at 1B again, with Robbie Grossman your DH.

If they sign Mauer, there wouldn't be a need for a 1B/DH. They would have Austin, Mauer, Sano, Cave/Kepler.

They would need a 3B in that case, but they are going to need that anyway unless they go with Sano 140+ plus time there.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Can you picture the Twins letting Mauer go and signing a 38 year old? I don't

If the Twins sign Donaldson I don't see them getting another RH 1B/DH, but if they sign Esobar I think Nelson/Sano/Austin is a pretty good platoon.

 

I can, and I would. Said 38 year old last had a sub .800 OPS in 2012 (.779, still above league average). Prior to that it was 2007. He's currently sporting an .891 OPS and on pace to again play well over 140 games. He will be relatively cheap and can probably be had if someone offered him 2 years. He's not showing signs of slowing down, and even if father time catches up to him, I'd wager a fairly large amount of money that he outproduces Joe in that time. 

 

I'm not sure I'd go after Donaldson for the record. I haven't been pushing him. 

 

Edit: and I have been clear in that I'd bring Mauer in as a 3B/1B bench role, if of course Joe and Paul would understand it to be that way. 

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Good Point on Austin, Now how comfortable are Twins fans going to be going into next year with him and really nobody behind him?  

 

Rooker? Weil? Both of those guys are young and have hit well in the high minors. Both will be ready at some point next year and would make for an acceptable fall back plan. 

[Tomj14]

 

Rooker? Weil? Both of those guys are young and have hit well in the high minors. Both will be ready at some point next year and would make for an acceptable fall back plan. 

I love me some Rooker and Weil, but calling them back up plans next year is way more opportunistic then I would be willing to go. Remember last year when just about everybody wanted Dozier traded because Gordon was ready? and he was further along then either of them. 

I hope both are rookie of the year candidates next year, but I will not plan on it.