Twins, Brewers Talking Trades

[Tom Froemming]

Got any favorites in Milwaukee's system?

[Dman]

Maybe Lutz for Esco but the prospects in the sweet spot 10 to 20 range just don't interest me.  I think it is going to be tough to do a deal with the Brewers as they are heavy on Outfielders and low on young pitching.  Lutz is likely too high for them to part with for a rental and that is lowest piece I would be interested in.  Not that we need more young outfielders.  Personally I don't see it happening.

 

If you ask me it is more of a negotiating ploy to see if they can get Baltimore to come down from their asking price.

[TheLeviathan]

Corey Ray.  Get er done.

[Mike Sixel]

Plenty of players in the Brewers' system I'd rather have than a half year of Dozier, in a losing season. Plenty. RHP mostly.....but the more pitchers the better.

 

And, I'd happily take more OF, they can either replace guys the Twins have, or be used in future trades if needed (or move to DH/5th OF). 

[Mike Sixel]

I'd deal Dozier and Gibson for Keston Hiura and a random player in the 100-200 prospect range. I doubt Milwaukee does that....so I'd aim lower, like Corey Ray or one of their many RHP in A+ or AA

[Vanimal46]

I'd deal Dozier and Gibson for Keston Hiura and a random player in the 100-200 prospect range. I doubt Milwaukee does that....so I'd aim lower, like Corey Ray or one of their many RHP in A+ or AA

Yeah... Hiura is #1 on John Sickels' prospect rankings in their org with a B+/A grade. That's a prospect reserved for a Machado, Thor, or DeGrom trade.

 

https://www.minorleagueball.com/2018/2/21/17038344/milwaukee-brewers-top-20-prospects-for-2018

[Mike Sixel]

 

Yeah... Hiura is #1 on John Sickels' prospect rankings in their org with a B+/A grade. That's a prospect reserved for a Machado, Thor, or DeGrom trade.

https://www.minorleagueball.com/2018/2/21/17038344/milwaukee-brewers-top-20-prospects-for-2018

 

ah, then he's higher than I thought! My bad, move on from that.....sigh.

[Dman]

 

Plenty of players in the Brewers' system I'd rather have than a half year of Dozier, in a losing season. Plenty. RHP mostly.....but the more pitchers the better.

 

And, I'd happily take more OF, they can either replace guys the Twins have, or be used in future trades if needed (or move to DH/5th OF). 

 

Sure anything is better than nothing.  I just think the Twins might be able to do better or match up better with another team.  FWIW Corey Ray's write up on MLB is not real flattering.  Looks like Palka with speed.  Maybe Marcus Duplan at #11 would be something to build a Dozier trade around.  Although Mechanics issue's and a high WHIP are concerns at least his floor is a bull pen arm.  Maybe that is the best the Twins can do I don't know.  I just don't love what they have in their system.

[ashbury]

I want arms. MLB.com's prospect ranking for Brewer pitchers:

 

Corbin Burnes

Luis Ortiz

Freddie Peralta

Marcos Diplan

Adrian Houser

Cody Ponce

Caden Lemons

 

Sickels really likes Brandon Woodruff (who no longer qualifies as a rookie), slotting him after Burnes. Doesn't like Houser and Lemons quite so much. Whoever does the scouting for the OOTP game likes Lemons and Ponce a bit; they were both second-rounders in their respective drafts.

 

Peralta's doing well in the majors and Burnes just reached - probably the top four guys are all off the table for a trade of the magnitude the Twins would be talking about. If a veteran-plus-prospect package could pry one loose, I'd go for it. Otherwise, everyone I looked at is either too successful or has too many warts, for a Dozier trade, or especially Escobar. If the braintrust really likes someone far away like Lemons, that would work for me for Rodney, but might be difficult to sell to the fanbase and he isn't mentioned in this rumor.

[Mike Sixel]

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/top-30-prospects-milwaukee-brewers/

 

This is before their mid season update.....

[Dman]

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/top-30-prospects-milwaukee-brewers/

 

This is before their mid season update.....

 

If you look at the list, the medium ranked guys have a lot of warts and the guys we might like are ranked too high for what Milwaukee would get in return.  Maybe if they got prospects back from us we could grab someone higher but it is a tough match if you ask me.

 

I like Fangraphs write-ups better than MLB.  More detail.  Ultimately same result for me though I don't see a trade working unless no one else is interested in our guys.

[markos]

What about Domingo Santana? Right-handed corner outfielder. 3 years of team control left. Struggled this year, but had a 125 OPS+ last year. Still only 25 years old. 

[Mike Sixel]

If you look at the list, the medium ranked guys have a lot of warts and the guys we might like are ranked too high for what Milwaukee would get in return. Maybe if they got prospects back from us we could grab someone higher but it is a tough match if you ask me.

 

I like Fangraphs write-ups better than MLB. More detail. Ultimately same result for me though I don't see a trade working unless no one else is interested in our guys.

I'd think anyone, in any system, you get for Dozier will have warts.....but I understand your point

[Dman]

 

I'd think anyone, in any system, you get for Dozier will have warts.....but I understand your point

 

There is enough of a market to trade him I think it is just a matter of what the return will be at this point.  If I was Milwaukee I think I would overpay for Machado.   They don't get this far very often they should do everything they can to win it all.

[Vanimal46]

There is enough of a market to trade him I think it is just a matter of what the return will be at this point. If I was Milwaukee I think I would overpay for Machado. They don't get this far very often they should do everything they can to win it all.

It's the thing I love about Milwaukee. They aren't afraid to go for it in years like this when they're competitive.

 

They're the Kings of rental trades. Riding CC Sabathia like a mule in 2008... Zack Grienke before he became a Dodger... Now potentially Machado.

[Dman]

 

It's the thing I love about Milwaukee. They aren't afraid to go for it in years like this when they're competitive.

They're the Kings of rental trades. Riding CC Sabathia like a mule in 2008... Zack Grienke before he became a Dodger... Now potentially Machado.

 

I totally agree.  I love how they go for it.  I know it didn't work out for them but they did everything they could to maximize their ability to win.  I think they can afford to give up Ortiz and Phillips and maybe a third lotto ticket to get that deal done.  That would be a pretty good return for a rental.  I know Baltimore wants Burns but that seems like a stretch for a rental.

 

I guess if the price is too high then it makes sense that they are looking into a poor man's Machado in Escobar.  If they get out bid then they should go hard for Esco as it looks like he is the next best thing and wouldn't be a costly as Machado.

[Dantes929]

If we make a qualifying offer to Dozier we get a pretty high draft pick right?    Then to me, a half a season of a GG all star plus the high draft pick is the floor and a trade should be for someone that is fairly clearly better.   Escobar is a bit tougher.   Listen to all offers but it is reasonable for his stock to fall from this point to the end of the season.  That would be the time to talk about signing him for more years.    I am guessing he likes it here where he gets lots of playing time rather than as a utility guy.

[Mr. Brooks]

If we make a qualifying offer to Dozier we get a pretty high draft pick right? Then to me, a half a season of a GG all star plus the high draft pick is the floor and a trade should be for someone that is fairly clearly better. Escobar is a bit tougher. Listen to all offers but it is reasonable for his stock to fall from this point to the end of the season. That would be the time to talk about signing him for more years. I am guessing he likes it here where he gets lots of playing time rather than as a utility guy.

Unless Dozier heats up significantly, he'll be in no position to turn down a QO. So, no draft pick.

[Mike Sixel]

 

If we make a qualifying offer to Dozier we get a pretty high draft pick right?    Then to me, a half a season of a GG all star plus the high draft pick is the floor and a trade should be for someone that is fairly clearly better.   Escobar is a bit tougher.   Listen to all offers but it is reasonable for his stock to fall from this point to the end of the season.  That would be the time to talk about signing him for more years.    I am guessing he likes it here where he gets lots of playing time rather than as a utility guy.

 

I have zero interest in paying Dozier 17MM next year. 

[S.]

Brian Dozier would be a fool not to take a QO and try to build his value back up. And we would be fools to offer him one.

[TheLeviathan]

 

Brian Dozier would be a fool not to take a QO and try to build his value back up. And we would be fools to offer him one.

 

Both Escobar and Dozier would be in this group.  I simply cannot understand how people think offering them a QO is a good idea.

[Mike Sixel]

If people think 3/30 is fair for Esco....why would he turn down the QO? He'd only have to do 2/15 to make more money over the next three years.......

 

No way I QO either one.

[Vanimal46]

Both Escobar and Dozier would be in this group. I simply cannot understand how people think offering them a QO is a good idea.

Frankly, agents would be doing their clients a disservice if they recommend declining a QO. Especially after the s*** they went through last offseason.

[ChrisKnutson]

Freddy Peralta or bust.

[old nurse]

 

Both Escobar and Dozier would be in this group.  I simply cannot understand how people think offering them a QO is a good idea.

Well, this is a forum for both good and bad ideas. If you could split the QO and get the draft pick if a team signs both of them it would be a good idea.  People must be confused with the old system. Neither are going to get  that big of contract. As such for extending a QO you are looking at getting a pick that is likely higher than 75. That is high risk high reward territory or high floor  fill in player.  The more likely scenario is that you are playing 2 players 5-10 million each more than you need to thus cutting out a player that could really help the team.  I wouldn't think Escobar would turn down 17.5 million.   Depending on how many more times the Twins face the Royals, Dozier has a long ways to go to get to an OPS that a 1/17.4 might be more than he would get on a 2 year contract. I think the math wizards  in the front office can figure that out. As trade baityou might get the equivalent of a mid 2 round pick

[TheLeviathan]

I do wonder if people have confused the old QO system with the current one.  The current one of 17M (I've heard it might be 18M next year for some reason?  I'll try and find a link) makes no sense for either of these guys.

 

If you want a one year, prove-it deal.....offer them both 8-10M for next year.  Otherwise, offer them something more like what Cozart got - 3 years/38M (But probably not as much).  Or move on.  QO is the worst of all possible ideas.

[Thrylos]

I think that someone like Adrian Houser (who had some injury issues) would be a fair return for Dozier and sneaky good in the pen.  Closer material.

[Brandon]

Domingo Santiago and 500,000 international spending money or more and a suspect prospect for either Dozier or Escobar.  but i am not sure i want to trade till a week or so after the allstar break.  

 

we seem to be improving with Cave, Garver, Polanco and Dozier a little and Mauer hits a little here and there too.  I want to see how they do before we ship them off.  especially since we could still see Sano, Buxton, and Rooker make an impact at some point this season as well.

[Tom Froemming]

As simply a thrown in, not a major part of a deal at all, I'd be happy if they were able to land Christian Bethancourt. Remember him? Athletic catcher with a big arm, former top 100 prospect for the Braves.

 

He got traded to the Padres and they decided to give him a try as a reliever. Well he's back behind the plate, and is playing well with Milwaukee's Triple A team, (.300/.336/.502 with 12 HRs and a 44 CS%) though that's in Colorado Springs, meaning the power numbers may be deceiving. 

 

With his track record, you'd think the guy was 36, but I was shocked to see he's still only 26-years-old and he could be controlled through arbitration for three more years. Again, not a guy who you make as a centerpiece by any means, but a player who I think makes some sense as a target for the Twins.

[Dantes929]

 

Unless Dozier heats up significantly, he'll be in no position to turn down a QO. So, no draft pick.

He has started to heat up a bit.  His last two weeks have been great and his last month has been good but I admit I didn't realize how far his stock has fallen and did not account for the market drop when thinking about the qualifying offer.