Twins, Brewers Talking Trades

[Respy]

 

Brian Dozier would be a fool not to take a QO and try to build his value back up. And we would be fools to offer him one.

 

Dozier is having a terrible year this year and yet is on pace for 2.7 WAR.  At ~$10M/WAR, that's a value of $27M.  If the 2018-2019 qualifying offer is about $18M-$20M, I think they absolutely extend a qualifying offer to him, especially given the value of the compensation pick they would receive if Dozier turns down the qualifying offer (which I think he might do if he heats up at all the rest of the season).  I think this is especially important with the Twins possibly not having Escobar next year, questions around Sano, Polanco only playing 1/2 year this year, Nick Gordon struggling at AAA, and Royce Lewis still being at least a couple years away.  Dozier is literally the only given on the middle/left side of the infield.

[Dman]

 

I think that someone like Adrian Houser (who had some injury issues) would be a fair return for Dozier and sneaky good in the pen.  Closer material.

 

That might work.  He has the curveball that this FO likes.  His WHIP is pretty high though so he is hittable.  I don't know how much different he is from the pen guys we already have in AAA.  You could bet on his upside after surgery but I would would want another lottery ticket if they went with Houser.  Maybe some international project far away with potential or rookie league player.  A little something to mitigate the risk.  If he had a third pitch that would help.

[ashbury]

If he had a third pitch that would help.

Fastball, curveball, changeup. The latter isn't scouted as any kind of plus pitch, as yet. At age 25, not sure what the prognosis for it would be - pitchers constantly tinker throughout their careers. He's had success in limited usage in the majors this season. I suspect a batter has to be at least aware that a third pitch is in his arsenal.

[Dman]

 

Fastball, curveball, changeup. The latter isn't scouted as any kind of plus pitch, as yet. At age 25, not sure what the prognosis for it would be - pitchers constantly tinker throughout their careers. He's had success in limited usage in the majors this season. I suspect a batter has to be at least aware that a third pitch is in his arsenal.

 

Yeah that return seems a little light for Dozier IMO.  If they wanted one of our relievers I would be OK with that move.  Like you said he is 25 so if he isn't ready real soon he really isn't a prospect anymore.  He has two strong pitches and has played with others but looks like two plus pitches is all we could reasonably expect to get out of him.  We have Curtis, and Buesenitz with similar profiles and they haven't made it yet so not sure how badly we need another one.  If that was the only deal we could get for Dozier I might take it, but I would like to think he could fetch an actual starting pitching prospect.  Maybe one further away but with good potential.

[nicksaviking]

In regards to the QO for Dozier and Escobar, yeah, it wouldn't be a great look and people will criticize, but in the end, aren't they going to be criticized regardless if the payroll is $60M or $77M next year?

 

If the team wants one of them back and would rather overpay than fight off free agent suitors, who cares? It's going to be next to impossible for them to get back to 2018's payroll anyway.

[alarp33]

 

Dozier is having a terrible year this year and yet is on pace for 2.7 WAR.  At ~$10M/WAR, that's a value of $27M.  If the 2018-2019 qualifying offer is about $18M-$20M, I think they absolutely extend a qualifying offer to him, especially given the value of the compensation pick they would receive if Dozier turns down the qualifying offer (which I think he might do if he heats up at all the rest of the season).  I think this is especially important with the Twins possibly not having Escobar next year, questions around Sano, Polanco only playing 1/2 year this year, Nick Gordon struggling at AAA, and Royce Lewis still being at least a couple years away.  Dozier is literally the only given on the middle/left side of the infield.

 

I know the $ amount / WAR is often thrown out there, but to be clear that's not how free agency works. No 3 WAR player signs for $30 million / year, so using that number is really irrelevant 

[goulik]

I like waiting closer to the deadline unless someone is completely over paying for him. No reason to ship him now merely for a lottery ticket.

 

In the mean time, I would be negotiating as much as possible with him and Escobar on a two year contract. First one that blinks is staying, the other is traded. No one blinks, trade them both at deadline for lottery tickets (unless we make a miracle run between now and then)

 

We can always pursue them in the off season no matter where they are traded to.

[Respy]

 

I know the $ amount / WAR is often thrown out there, but to be clear that's not how free agency works. No 3 WAR player signs for $30 million / year, so using that number is really irrelevant 

 

Of course it doesn't work that way.  Teams want to profit, so if they expect a player to earn $30M dollar value, they'll want to pay $15-$20M.  The $/WAR number is not irrelevant though, as that's a calculated number (albeit some variations year-to-year) to show how much it has cost salary-wise to get WAR out of a player. 

 

I think the point is more that if a player has 2.7 WAR on an awful year (classified as a 'solid starter' by FanGraphs), and has averaged 4.2 WAR/year (All-Star by FanGraphs), then they are worth a qualifying offer. Especially one of high character like Brian Dozier.

https://www.fangraphs.com/library/misc/war/

[alarp33]

 

Of course it doesn't work that way.  Teams want to profit, so if they expect a player to earn $30M dollar value, they'll want to pay $15-$20M.  The $/WAR number is not irrelevant though, as that's a calculated number (albeit some variations year-to-year) to show how much it has cost salary-wise to get WAR out of a player. 

 

I think the point is more that if a player has 2.7 WAR on an awful year (classified as a 'solid starter' by FanGraphs), and has averaged 4.2 WAR/year (All-Star by FanGraphs), then they are worth a qualifying offer. Especially one of high character like Brian Dozier.

https://www.fangraphs.com/library/misc/war/

 

That's really not true at all either. Teams do not pay 2.7 WAR players $15-20 million / year in the open market. 

 

Take a look at the Twins most recent off-season. 

 

Logan Morrison (3.7 WAR 2017) - 1 year/ $8 million

Lance Lynn (3.2 WAR 2017) - 1 year / $12 million

Addison Reed (2.4 WAR 2017) - 2 years / $16 million

 

Will the Twins (if they don't trade him, which i expect they will) make Dozier a qualifying offer? Maybe if he heats up in 2nd half? They likely can pay Nick Gordon $550k to produce a win or two above replacement as a rookie and spend the $17-18 million elsewhere. 

 

His character also has no bearing, how he hits the ball does.  

 

[mngopherguy]

 

That's really not true at all either. Teams do not pay 2.7 WAR players $15-20 million / year in the open market. 

 

Take a look at the Twins most recent off-season. 

 

Logan Morrison (3.7 WAR 2017) - 1 year/ $8 million

Lance Lynn (3.2 WAR 2017) - 1 year / $12 million

Addison Reed (2.4 WAR 2017) - 2 years / $16 million

 

Will the Twins (if they don't trade him, which i expect they will) make Dozier a qualifying offer? Maybe if he heats up in 2nd half? They likely can pay Nick Gordon $550k to produce a win or two above replacement as a rookie and spend the $17-18 million elsewhere. 

 

His character also has no bearing, how he hits the ball does.  

 

I agree with everything till you say his character has no bearing.  People don't like acknowledging things like character, because there's no fancy little number to put behind it.  

 

 

[alarp33]

I agree with everything till you say his character has no bearing. People don't like acknowledging things like character, because there's no fancy little number to put behind it.

In what way does it matter? You obviously can’t quantify it, it’s never helped the team in the standings?

[USAFChief]

 

That's really not true at all either. Teams do not pay 2.7 WAR players $15-20 million / year in the open market. 

 

Take a look at the Twins most recent off-season. 

 

Logan Morrison (3.7 WAR 2017) - 1 year/ $8 million

Lance Lynn (3.2 WAR 2017) - 1 year / $12 million

Addison Reed (2.4 WAR 2017) - 2 years / $16 million

 

Will the Twins (if they don't trade him, which i expect they will) make Dozier a qualifying offer? Maybe if he heats up in 2nd half? They likely can pay Nick Gordon $550k to produce a win or two above replacement as a rookie and spend the $17-18 million elsewhere. 

 

His character also has no bearing, how he hits the ball does.  

I strongly doubt that GMs pay no attention to character.  Pretty much any hiring manager, anywhere, pays attention to character. It matters in the work environment everywhere else. I see no reason to think it wouldn't matter in baseball.

 

Some GMs seem to agree:

 

https://nypost.com/2017/02/25/behind-mlb-chemistry-how-teams-try-to-sniff-out-bad-guys/

 

[alarp33]

 

I strongly doubt that GMs pay no attention to character.  Pretty much any hiring manager, anywhere, pays attention to character. It matters in the work environment everywhere else. I see no reason to think it wouldn't matter in baseball.

 

Some GMs seem to agree:

 

https://nypost.com/2017/02/25/behind-mlb-chemistry-how-teams-try-to-sniff-out-bad-guys/

 

Do they say it matters? Probably.  Is there tangible evidence a "high character" guy gets paid more? Probably not.  

 

I don't think there's many (any?) people who would call Ardolis Chapman "high character". A world series winner traded their top prospect for him in a pennant race, then his old team gave him $86 million that off season. Maybe performance matters more than character?

 

BTW - what does "high character" even mean when it relates to Dozier? None of us are in the locker room every day, do his teammates all like him? Who on this Twins team does not have "high character"? 

[Respy]

Getting back on track, I personally don't know much about the Brewers prospects.  Let's presume (at least this is my presumption) that the Twins hang onto Dozier and give him a qualifying offer, and he turns it down, and the Twins receive a competitive balance pick for the 2019 draft.  So, the Twins would want to receive the value of a late-first-round-pick or better for a Dozier trade before July 31. 

 

Doing a minimal amount of research, let's look at the current Team Prospect Top 30 rankings of last year's competitive balance picks:

 

Rays: Rasmussen (did not sign)

Reds: Downs (Current Reds #6 prospect)

Athletics: Merrell (Current Athletics # 13)

Brewers: Lutz (Current Brewers # 8)

Twins: Rooker (Current Twins # 7)

Marlins: Miller (Current Marlins # 10)

 

Small sample size, but that averages to 8.8 +/- 2.8.

 

So, looking at the Brewers top prospects, Hiura or any of their top prospects are likely out of the question.  If they can get a prospect they like around Milwaukee's #6-10, plus two near #30ish, I'd likewise pull the trigger.

 

[alarp33]

 

Getting back on track, I personally don't know much about the Brewers prospects.  Let's presume (at least this is my presumption) that the Twins hang onto Dozier and give him a qualifying offer, and he turns it down, and the Twins receive a competitive balance pick for the 2019 draft.  So, the Twins would want to receive the value of a late-first-round-pick or better for a Dozier trade before July 31. 

 

Doing a minimal amount of research, let's look at the current Team Prospect Top 30 rankings of last year's competitive balance picks:

 

Rays: Rasmussen (did not sign)

Reds: Downs (Current Reds #6 prospect)

Athletics: Merrell (Current Athletics # 13)

Brewers: Lutz (Current Brewers # 8)

Twins: Rooker (Current Twins # 7)

Marlins: Miller (Current Marlins # 10)

 

Small sample size, but that averages to 8.8 +/- 2.8.

 

So, looking at the Brewers top prospects, Hiura or any of their top prospects are likely out of the question.  If they can get a prospect they like around Milwaukee's #6-10, plus two near #30ish, I'd likewise pull the trigger.

 

The Twins will not get a late 1st round pick as compensation for Dozier. It's very very unlikely he would receive $50 million in free agency, in which case his comp pick would be in the #75 range, after the 2nd round. 

[Respy]

 

The Twins will not get a late 1st round pick as compensation for Dozier. It's very very unlikely he would receive $50 million in free agency, in which case his comp pick would be in the #75 range, after the 2nd round. 

 

I value your opinion about this possibility and politely disagree about the likelihood of Dozier receiving $50M in free agency.

 

Perhaps you would like to suggest someone in the Brewers farm system for which you would be willing to trade Brian Dozier, based on your valuation of him?

[alarp33]

 

I value your opinion about this possibility and politely disagree about the likelihood of Dozier receiving $50M in free agency.

 

Perhaps you would like to suggest someone in the Brewers farm system for which you would be willing to trade Brian Dozier, based on your valuation of him?

 

Can you point to me a 2nd baseman who has received $50 million in free agency in the past 5 years? 10 years? Let alone one who has hit his 30s and coming off a down year. It's just not going to happen, and frankly it isn't likely to be close. 

[Respy]

 

Can you point to me a 2nd baseman who has received $50 million in free agency in the past 5 years? 10 years? Let alone one who has hit his 30s and coming off a down year. It's just not going to happen, and frankly it isn't likely to be close. 

 

Kinsler is nearly an identical comparison.  When he was signed in the 2012-2013 offseason ($75M/5), he was turning 31 (Dozier will be turning 32), he had an average WAR of 4.1 (Dozier has averaged 4.2), and just came off of a career-worst year in 2012 when he had 2.0 WAR and a .749 OPS (Dozier on pace for 2.7 WAR with .733 OPS).  

 

The biggest question here is what kind of free agent market it will be this winter, which nobody knows.  Almost certainly if it was like last offseason, Dozier would not be getting $50M.  If it's anything close to a normal offseason likely previous years, I think he receives $50M+.

[alarp33]

 

Kinsler is nearly an identical comparison.  When he was signed in the 2012-2013 offseason ($75M/5), he was turning 31 (Dozier will be turning 32), he had an average WAR of 4.1 (Dozier has averaged 4.2), and just came off of a career-worst year in 2012 when he had 2.0 WAR and a .749 OPS (Dozier on pace for 2.7 WAR with .733 OPS).  

 

The biggest question here is what kind of free agent market it will be this winter, which nobody knows.  Almost certainly if it was like last offseason, Dozier would not be getting $50M.  If it's anything close to a normal offseason likely previous years, I think he receives $50M+.

 

Kinsler got 5 years back when teams were fine paying players into their late 30s. Which has basically completely stopped. I would predict the absolute max amount of years Dozier will get to be 3, and I think its more likely he'd be taking a 1 or 2 year deal 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Kinsler is nearly an identical comparison.  When he was signed in the 2012-2013 offseason ($75M/5), he was turning 31 (Dozier will be turning 32), he had an average WAR of 4.1 (Dozier has averaged 4.2), and just came off of a career-worst year in 2012 when he had 2.0 WAR and a .749 OPS (Dozier on pace for 2.7 WAR with .733 OPS).  

That was actually an extension for Kinsler, signed in April 2012. So he was just coming off his age-29 season with 7.0 bWAR, although it wasn't going to take effect until his age-31 season. It was basically his peak value. Dozier probably doesn't get anything like that now -- maybe if he had signed an extension after 2016 (although he was still 2 years away from FA, unlike Kinsler's 1).

[Respy]

 

That was actually an extension for Kinsler, signed in April 2012. So he was just coming off his age-29 season with 7.0 bWAR, although it wasn't going to take effect until his age-31 season. It was basically his peak value. Dozier probably doesn't get anything like that now -- maybe if he had signed an extension after 2016 (although he was still 2 years away from FA, unlike Kinsler's 1).

 

You are correct, thank you for the clarification.  We shall see how this offseason pans out...

[markos]

 

Can you point to me a 2nd baseman who has received $50 million in free agency in the past 5 years? 10 years? Let alone one who has hit his 30s and coming off a down year. It's just not going to happen, and frankly it isn't likely to be close. 

Cano? Zobrist? Moving beyond 2B, Justin Turner? Carlos Santana? Martin Prado and Daniel Murphy both got $40M deals 3 years ago, which doesn't make $50M seem like a huge stretch.

And looking at outfielders, where does Dozier fit with:

Justin Upton

Charlie Blackmon

Dexter Fowler

Lorenzo Cain

Ian Desmond

Brett Gardner

Josh Reddick

Nick Markakis

 

Don't get me wrong, I don't think it is a given that Dozier gets a $50M+ contract. In fact, I don't even think it is likely. But if he has a solid second-half and ends up with 3+ WAR (which is what Steamer/ZIPs are currently projecting), then I think it is within reach. Right now I'd say it is maybe a 1-in-4 chance.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

I do wonder if people have confused the old QO system with the current one. The current one of 17M (I've heard it might be 18M next year for some reason? I'll try and find a link) makes no sense for either of these guys.

 

If you want a one year, prove-it deal.....offer them both 8-10M for next year. Otherwise, offer them something more like what Cozart got - 3 years/38M (But probably not as much). Or move on. QO is the worst of all possible ideas.

QO is calculated by the average of the top 125 salaries of the previous year. Many of the large long term contracts are back loaded, since the contracts are guaranteed.

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/10/mlb-sets-2017-qualifying-offer-at-17-4mm.html

[Tomj14]

 

I have zero interest in paying Dozier 17MM next year. 

Holy Cow Mike I hope nobody is expecting you to cover Dozier's salary next year at 17 million.

But I always like the saying that no one year deal is bad.

If Gordon was doing better at AAA I would say trade Dozier ASAP, but at this stage he doesn't look like he will be ready to take over in 2019. So I would be OK with a QO.

The Twins were willing to pay Lynn almost that much this year and he was less of a certainty then Dozier is.

[alarp33]

Cano? Zobrist? Moving beyond 2B, Justin Turner? Carlos Santana? Martin Prado and Daniel Murphy both got $40M deals 3 years ago, which doesn't make $50M seem like a huge stretch.

And looking at outfielders, where does Dozier fit with:

Justin Upton

Charlie Blackmon

Dexter Fowler

Lorenzo Cain

Ian Desmond

Brett Gardner

Josh Reddick

Nick Markakis

 

Don't get me wrong, I don't think it is a given that Dozier gets a $50M+ contract. In fact, I don't even think it is likely. But if he has a solid second-half and ends up with 3+ WAR (which is what Steamer/ZIPs are currently projecting), then I think it is within reach. Right now I'd say it is maybe a 1-in-4 chance.

What do Outfielders have to do with Dozier, is he moving positions? The whole reason he isn’t getting $50 is because teams don’t value 2b. As evidenced by the lack of interest in him when he was on the trade block 2 winters ago

[ashbury]

But I always like the saying that no one year deal is bad.

Well yes, and add that to the fact that committed 2019 payroll is not yet large. Still, it's a finite budget, and $17M here and $17M there starts to add up. You still have to make choices. And if it's about a player who's likely to draw $5-10M (depending on whom you ask here) per year, and yet you can't get him to sign with you for that, then maybe you have to move on and apply those funds some different way.

[markos]

 

What do Outfielders have to do with Dozier, is he moving positions? The whole reason he isn’t getting $50 is because teams don’t value 2b. As evidenced by the lack of interest in him when he was on the trade block 2 winters ago

The amount that MLB teams are willing to pay 2B is almost perfectly in line with what they pay outfielders. The top-15 highest paid 2B will actually out-earn the top-15 CFs and RFs. The percentage of 2B who will make at least $10M this year is the same as the percentage of OFs who will make at least $10M. Looking at the entire outfield, the average salary of the top 45 OFs compared to the top 15 2B differs by less that $100K. 

[Riverbrian]

Just my quick glance opinion but there looks to be quite a few teams that may have a need for a 2B next year and that might drive his price up a little. 

[USAFChief]

What do Outfielders have to do with Dozier, is he moving positions? The whole reason he isn’t getting $50 is because teams don’t value 2b. As evidenced by the lack of interest in him when he was on the trade block 2 winters ago

In addition to Markos' point above, I believe teams value 2nd basemen MORE than corner OFers, all things being equal. "Strong up the middle" has been a saying for 100 yrs for a reason.

 

In the current trade market, however, there may be more demand for an OFer than second baseman, but that's based on need, not how they value the position.

[jun]

 

I agree, the world has changed. teams aren't generally going to be willing top pay top dollar to guys 35 or older.  I think Dozier gets 3 years on the FA market at best, probably 10-12M a year. For that, the Twins should try to re-sign him. 

 

I'm a little surprised Dozier and the Twins haven't talked about an extension. Part of the problem is that Dozier signed the team friendly contract in the old days, probably thinking he's hit free agency at age 31 and get a big contract. He may need to see what's out there before he can come to grips with reality. It also may be that the FO isn't thrilled with his play and thinks he's slowing down.  Wouldn't surprise me at all if he took a QO if one was made as a nice pillow contract. 

Why do you sign someone who hardly delivers when it matters? Anyone can play 2B. If you want to see more solo homers, try home run derby.