Twins, Brewers Talking Trades

[bighat]

Wow, here's Hildy...and Dick being critical of the move! What the heck is going on today?

[caninatl04]

I wonder what today’s Grand Slam will cost some team in 2019 in Dozier’s contract.

[alarp33]

 

The amount that MLB teams are willing to pay 2B is almost perfectly in line with what they pay outfielders. The top-15 highest paid 2B will actually out-earn the top-15 CFs and RFs. The percentage of 2B who will make at least $10M this year is the same as the percentage of OFs who will make at least $10M. Looking at the entire outfield, the average salary of the top 45 OFs compared to the top 15 2B differs by less that $100K. 

 

Avg Salaries; 

 

Right Field $4,606,626

 

Left Field $4,316,160

 

Center Field $3,730,521

 

2nd Base $2,512,682

 

Also your wrong about top 15 2b making more than top 15 RF + CF... top 15 2b make about $178, RF $180, CF $183

 

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/positional/

 

[caninatl04]

Which of the 11, yes 11 NL teams still in contention need a 2B?

[mngopherguy]

 

Why do you sign someone who hardly delivers when it matters? Anyone can play 2B. If you want to see more solo homers, try home run derby.

 

Grand Slam walk off homer.  4th career walk off homer.  

[jun]

 

Grand Slam walk off homer.  4th career walk off homer.  

Yeah he's going to have to do that more often though.

[TheLeviathan]

 

Which of the 11, yes 11 NL teams still in contention need a 2B?

 

Brewers, dodgers, D-backs, and Phillies could all probably be in the mix.  Basically any team not the winner in the Machado sweepstakes.

[dbminn]

 

Brewers, dodgers, D-backs, and Phillies could all probably be in the mix.  Basically any team not the winner in the Machado sweepstakes.

 

Remember all that Forsythe is basically Dozier talk?

[Otto von Ballpark]

Remember all that Forsythe is basically Dozier talk?

To be fair, it wasn't that far off last year. Per B-Ref, Dodger 2B production in 2017 ranked 7th in MLB, behind the Twins but only by 1.1 wins.

 

The gulf has widened this year, 0.8 wins at the halfway point although Dozier has only been average so far. A big part of this is Seager's injury, otherwise the Dodgers may have already had the internal resources to cut Forsythe and match Dozier's production at 2B (i.e. Taylor and Hernandez).

[markos]

 

Avg Salaries; 

 

Right Field $4,606,626

 

Left Field $4,316,160

 

Center Field $3,730,521

 

2nd Base $2,512,682

 

Also your wrong about top 15 2b making more than top 15 RF + CF... top 15 2b make about $178, RF $180, CF $183

 

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/positional/

I used the same data source, but I didn't blindly use those averages because I couldn't find their methodology for position qualification. As you said, they state that the average salaries for the three outfield positions individually are:

Right Field $4,606,626

Left Field $4,316,160

Center Field $3,730,521

 

But then they have all OF, and the average is... 

Outfielder: $2,112,741

which makes zero mathematical sense unless they have a bunch of players that are getting outfield credit but not individual position credit OR the individual positions calculations are double-counting players that have appeared in multiple positions. I think it might be the latter, as they claim to have 388 OF qualifiers, even though Fangraphs only has 266 players that have played at least an inning in the outfield this season.

 

Our numbers don't match up for the second part because I took the liberty of removing two egregious qualifiers from the outfielders: Alex Gordon has played all of 11 games in CF this year, but he makes the CF list, and Gerardo Parra has started only 5 games in RF, but he makes the RF list. But with or without them, we are basically in agreement at the top salaries in 2B, CF and RF are within +/-3%. 

[alarp33]

I used the same data source, but I didn't blindly use those averages because I couldn't find their methodology for position qualification. As you said, they state that the average salaries for the three outfield positions individually are:

Right Field $4,606,626

Left Field $4,316,160

Center Field $3,730,521

 

But then they have all OF, and the average is...

Outfielder: $2,112,741

which makes zero mathematical sense unless they have a bunch of players that are getting outfield credit but not individual position credit OR the individual positions calculations are double-counting players that have appeared in multiple positions. I think it might be the latter, as they claim to have 388 OF qualifiers, even though Fangraphs only has 266 players that have played at least an inning in the outfield this season.

 

Our numbers don't match up for the second part because I took the liberty of removing two egregious qualifiers from the outfielders: Alex Gordon has played all of 11 games in CF this year, but he makes the CF list, and Gerardo Parra has started only 5 games in RF, but he makes the RF list. But with or without them, we are basically in agreement at the top salaries in 2B, CF and RF are within +/-3%.

Did you move Ben Zobrists salary to OF? He’s played more OF than 2B this year.

 

The fact is there is little to no history of 2nd baseman signing big free agent deals. It’s Cano and that’s it

[Otto von Ballpark]

Did you move Ben Zobrists salary to OF? He’s played more OF than 2B this year.

 

The fact is there is little to no history of 2nd baseman signing big free agent deals. It’s Cano and that’s it

Zobrist was primarily a 2nd baseman when he signed. Murphy too, depending on how you define "big deals". And both of those guys had arguably as many, if not more, question marks as Dozier could have this offseason.

 

I think markos's conclusion is generally correct, that it's not likely Dozier will get a $50 mil deal at this point, but it's not impossible either. 1 in 4 chance sounds about right, and I'd factor that into our deadline decision-making accordingly.

[alarp33]

Zobrist was primarily a 2nd baseman when he signed. Murphy too, depending on how you define "big deals". And both of those guys had arguably as many, if not more, question marks as Dozier could have this offseason.

 

I think markos's conclusion is generally correct, that it's not likely Dozier will get a $50 mil deal at this point, but it's not impossible either. 1 in 4 chance sounds about right, and I'd factor that into our deadline decision-making accordingly.

Even Murphy came well short of the $50 million mark though.

 

Zobrist had a down 2015, but had a pretty good postseason and the positional flexibility angle going for him. His career up to that point was better than Dozier’s too.

 

Free agency has noticeably shifted recently and I don’t see any way team gives Dozier 4 years which is likely his only chance to get to $50

[Otto von Ballpark]

Even Murphy came well short of the $50 million mark though.

 

Zobrist had a down 2015, but had a pretty good postseason and the positional flexibility angle going for him. His career up to that point was better than Dozier’s too.

 

Free agency has noticeably shifted recently and I don’t see any way team gives Dozier 4 years which is likely his only chance to get to $50

A 1 in 4 shot is only 25%. Seems like you might be splitting hairs here.

 

Murphy had very little track record, and was a major suspect defensively. (And his contract is up this year -- maybe the Nationals come calling for Dozier?)

 

Zobrist had a better career and more flexibility, but he was a lot older too.

 

And while the market hasn't boomed lately, I'm not sure it's down enough that Dozier couldn't get a $50 mil offer from someone with a strong finish in 2018. Just last winter, Jay Bruce got $39 mil and he sucks. Carlos Santana got $60 mil to go to the non-DH league. Cozart got $38 mil to play 3B/2B which he had never done before, and largely based on 1 season offensively. Chatwood got $38 mil. Even after Lynn's market fell apart, Alex Cobb still got $52 mil.

 

Again, maybe not likely that Dozier hits $50 mil, but 25% chance sounds reasonable at this point. Basically the chance of him having a great finish and a little market luck, or just a good finish and some more market luck.

 

Fortunately it doesn't matter today. If Dozier's bat is still hot in 2 weeks, though, I think it might be fair to hold out for a trade return comparable to the higher comp pick, especially if we still have an outside chance of keeping things interesting down the stretch -- and could possibly still utilize Dozier on a 1 year QO deal for 2019.

[dbminn]

 

To be fair, it wasn't that far off last year. Per B-Ref, Dodger 2B production in 2017 ranked 7th in MLB, behind the Twins but only by 1.1 wins.

The gulf has widened this year, 0.8 wins at the halfway point although Dozier has only been average so far. A big part of this is Seager's injury, otherwise the Dodgers may have already had the internal resources to cut Forsythe and match Dozier's production at 2B (i.e. Taylor and Hernandez).

 

No, it wasn't close. Comparison, per Fangraphs (I hate curve fitting WAR to team record), Dozier 2014-2016: 13.8 WAR vs. Forsythe 6.6 WAR. Wasn't that close from 15-16 either. I had a strong opinion about it then and still do now. (key word, opinion)

[Otto von Ballpark]

No, it wasn't close. Comparison, per Fangraphs (I hate curve fitting WAR to team record), Dozier 2014-2016: 13.8 WAR vs. Forsythe 6.6 WAR. Wasn't that close from 15-16 either. I had a strong opinion about it then and still do now. (key word, opinion)

Sorry, I thought I was clear. What was fairly close was the production the Dodgers got at 2B in 2017 (5th in fWAR), versus the same for the Twins (2nd in fWAR).

 

The Twins obviously made the right call not to deal him for DeLeon, but likewise it appears the Dodgers made a wise decision in not offering more (Bellinger, Buehler, etc.).

[USAFChief]

Sorry, I thought I was clear. What was fairly close was the production the Dodgers got at 2B in 2017 (5th in fWAR), versus the same for the Twins (2nd in fWAR).

 

The Twins obviously made the right call not to deal him for DeLeon, but likewise it appears the Dodgers made a wise decision in not offering more (Bellinger, Buehler, etc.).

Well if the goal is to win a WS, they perhaps didn't make such a wise decision.

 

Penny wise and pound foolish, and all that.

[dbminn]

 

Sorry, I thought I was clear. What was fairly close was the production the Dodgers got at 2B in 2017 (5th in fWAR), versus the same for the Twins (2nd in fWAR).

The Twins obviously made the right call not to deal him for DeLeon, but likewise it appears the Dodgers made a wise decision in not offering more (Bellinger, Buehler, etc.).

 

I didn't want to directly comment to your response, since the issue for me was Dozier v. Forsythe. Regarding the Dodgers, the Chief is right. They had a $250M+ budget and a deep farm system in 2017. Their GM decided to go on the cheap for the last roster piece. May have been the difference in the WS.

 

I don't recall anyone asking for Bellinger, but Buehler was a reasonable return at the time. 

[FunnyPenguin]

 

Yeah he's going to have to do that more often though.

For what its worth, Jose Bautista just hit his first walk off homer a couple weeks ago, and I think we could all say he had a pretty decent career

[Brock Beauchamp]

It seems kind of silly to argue over how much Dozier will get in the offseason when we have no idea if he’ll end the season as a .750 or .850 OPS player.

[alarp33]

 

It seems kind of silly to argue over how much Dozier will get in the offseason when we have no idea if he’ll end the season as a .750 or .850 OPS player.

 

Sure its silly, but the Twins only have 2 weeks to decide whether to trade him, and they'll have to guess on whether he's worthy of a QO and what kind of pick they could expect if he turned it down., 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Well if the goal is to win a WS, they perhaps didn't make such a wise decision.

Penny wise and pound foolish, and all that.

Well, Forsythe had a .297 BA and .435 OBP in the postseason for the Dodgers too, so it's hard to say that Dozier would have been better in that small sample either.

 

Or better enough to matter -- they got to within 1 game of the championship with Forsythe, but Darvish put them in a 5-0 hole in Game 7. Forsythe hitting a HR in each of his 4 PA that game would have only been enough to tie, given he only saw 1 Dodger on base for him to drive in. (Forsythe did reach twice that game, by the way -- a leadoff single in the second, and a no out walk in the 6th to put runners at first and second.)

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I didn't want to directly comment to your response, since the issue for me was Dozier v. Forsythe. Regarding the Dodgers, the Chief is right. They had a $250M+ budget and a deep farm system in 2017. Their GM decided to go on the cheap for the last roster piece. May have been the difference in the WS.

See my response to Chief above. Highly speculative that Dozier would have improved the World Series outcome over Forsythe. I think there are fair reasons to criticize Dodgers moves from 2017, obviously, but "they lost the series because they didn't pony up for Dozier" seems to be particularly specious in that regard.

[markos]

 

Sure its silly, but the Twins only have 2 weeks to decide whether to trade him, and they'll have to guess on whether he's worthy of a QO and what kind of pick they could expect if he turned it down., 

Yep. And I think that if the Twins can get a prospect(s) they value higher than the #75 pick in the 2019 draft, they should pull the trigger on trading Dozier.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Sure its silly, but the Twins only have 2 weeks to decide whether to trade him, and they'll have to guess on whether he's worthy of a QO and what kind of pick they could expect if he turned it down.,

Sure, but I suspect we’ll learn a lot in two weeks.

[dbminn]

 

See my response to Chief above. Highly speculative that Dozier would have improved the World Series outcome over Forsythe. I think there are fair reasons to criticize Dodgers moves from 2017, obviously, but "they lost the series because they didn't pony up for Dozier" seems to be particularly specious in that regard.

 

Now your not reading my posts. I said "may have been the difference". Don't exaggerate and then knock down - it's a cheap tactic. Dozier was a superior option, the Dodgers had the resources and didn't make the trade. I held that opinion before the 2017 season and I stand by it. Meanwhile, I enjoyed the heck out of watching Dozier put up a 5 WAR season and help the Twins make a surprise appearance in the playoffs.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Yep. And I think that if the Twins can get a prospect(s) they value higher than the #75 pick in the 2019 draft, they should pull the trigger on trading Dozier.

That's fair, but I don't think it's so cut-and-dried. There are more useful outcomes for the Twins than just the comp pick. 2018 still has the potential to be interesting, and Dozier could be useful to us in 2019 -- and a potential QO makes it a little more likely that we could retain him on a one year deal.

 

So I guess I'd put the bar a little higher than the pick we sold for $7 mil with Hughes (and that most observers valued at only $4-5 mil). As Brock says, though, we'll know more in 2 weeks.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Now your not reading my posts. I said "may have been the difference". Don't exaggerate and then knock down - it's a cheap tactic.

Sorry, I am reading your posts, and I didn't mean to do as you claim.

 

It's just that, if that's your standard for "may have been the difference" then it's not really a meaningful phrase. Pulling Darvish one batter earlier "may have been the difference". Giving Bellinger the "take" sign a couple times, a lucky (or unlucky) bounce/spin/wind... maybe trading for a reliever instead of Darvish, and moving Stripling back to the rotation would have helped... they got so close to the goal, there are basically infinite factors that "may have been the difference" just as much as the statistical difference between Dozier and Forsythe in 2017.

 

Put another way, if I was a Dodgers fan, I might be disappointed in the end result of the season, but the failure to trade for Brian Dozier would not likely enter my mind as a significant reason. (Especially since we don't know what the cost for Dozier would have been.)

[dbminn]

 

Sorry, I am reading your posts, and I didn't mean to do as you claim.

 

It's just that, if that's your standard for "may have been the difference" then it's not really a meaningful phrase. Pulling Darvish one batter earlier "may have been the difference". Giving Bellinger the "take" sign a couple times, a lucky (or unlucky) bounce/spin/wind... maybe trading for a reliever instead of Darvish, and moving Stripling back to the rotation would have helped... they got so close to the goal, there are basically infinite factors that "may have been the difference" just as much as the statistical difference between Dozier and Forsythe in 2017.

 

Put another way, if I was a Dodgers fan, I might be disappointed in the end result of the season, but the failure to trade for Brian Dozier would not likely enter my mind as a significant reason. (Especially since we don't know what the cost for Dozier would have been.)

 

As a fan, I would've been irritated with the Dodgers GM at the start of 2017. I said as much before last season started. Dozier was clearly a superior player by the stats, with two years of control. He might have made the difference last year and potentially this year. We will never know, but the stats from 2014-17 are on my side.

[alarp33]

 

As a fan, I would've been irritated with the Dodgers GM at the start of 2017. I said as much before last season started. Dozier was clearly a superior player by the stats, with two years of control. He might have made the difference last year and potentially this year. We will never know, but the stats from 2014-17 are on my side.

 

I think you're misunderstanding his posts. The Dodgers played in Game 7 of the World Series last year, I'd say it worked out ok for them. Yes Dozier has been a superior player than Forsythe, but that likely wouldn't have mattered in game 7. Trading for Dozier may have very well cost them their all star 1st baseman as well, which may have had a more negative outcome on their season than the positives they would have seen from Dozier instead of Forsythe