Twins, Brewers Talking Trades

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

As a fan, I would've been irritated with the Dodgers GM at the start of 2017. I said as much before last season started. Dozier was clearly a superior player by the stats, with two years of control. He might have made the difference last year and potentially this year. We will never know, but the stats from 2014-17 are on my side.

The stats from 2017 alone -- the ones most relevant to the Dodgers -- are most definitely not on your side.

[TheLeviathan]

 

Sure, but I suspect we’ll learn a lot in two weeks.

 

I'm not sure that solves your .750 vs. .850 point though.  Two weeks might add some clarity, but streaky hitters are hard to bank on.  

 

I doubt the Twins get any more information about Dozier in two weeks.  What they will get information on, is whether this team should remain a seller.  A 9 game road trip will (hopefully) make it clear.  On Dozier, I think everyone knows where things are:

 

Shop the streaky hitter and sell teams on the idea that he is about to be a lineup-carrying force and try to get a good rental price.  If you can't....then you're left with QO vs. extension as you grind out the last two months of the season.  Nothing about the next two weeks changes that IMO.

[bird]

 

That's really not true at all either. Teams do not pay 2.7 WAR players $15-20 million / year in the open market. 

 

Take a look at the Twins most recent off-season. 

 

Logan Morrison (3.7 WAR 2017) - 1 year/ $8 million

Lance Lynn (3.2 WAR 2017) - 1 year / $12 million

Addison Reed (2.4 WAR 2017) - 2 years / $16 million

 

Will the Twins (if they don't trade him, which i expect they will) make Dozier a qualifying offer? Maybe if he heats up in 2nd half? They likely can pay Nick Gordon $550k to produce a win or two above replacement as a rookie and spend the $17-18 million elsewhere. 

 

His character also has no bearing, how he hits the ball does.  

 

You might be right that no FO is taking a straight path from WAR to salary, but that might be skirting the point.

 

The association and relationship between WAR and value is relevant and I'm guessing part of every FO discussion these days. The deals struck for Morrison, Lance, and Reed were very likely motivated by the perception of them being available at a discount, right? My guess is that somewhere in the calculus for each of them, someone mentioned the relationship between historic WAR figures and the salary figures being tossed around.

 

And I believe you're very much wrong about the "makeup" factor. I believe a competent qualitative assessment of "character" value is a higher priority than we might know, and it should be in my mind, if for no other reason than to mitigate the risk of a cancerous element in the clubhouse. We all know what a drain on energy, morale, enjoyment, and productivity a miscreant causes in environments where we've worked. Magnify the destructive nature severalfold when it comes to a 25-man clubhouse.

[USAFChief]

 

The stats from 2017 alone -- the ones most relevant to the Dodgers -- are most definitely not on your side.

Perhaps you're right.

 

You know what they say..."World Series Champions Runners Up" flags fly forever.

[yarnivek1972]

Perhaps you're right.

 

You know what they say..."World Series Champions Runners Up" flags fly forever.

The Twins still fly theirs from 1965.

[alarp33]

 

You might be right that no FO is taking a straight path from WAR to salary, but that might be skirting the point.

 

The association and relationship between WAR and value is relevant and I'm guessing part of every FO discussion these days. The deals struck for Morrison, Lance, and Reed were very likely motivated by the perception of them being available at a discount, right? My guess is that somewhere in the calculus for each of them, someone mentioned the relationship between historic WAR figures and the salary figures being tossed around.

 

And I believe you're very much wrong about the "makeup" factor. I believe a competent qualitative assessment of "character" value is a higher priority than we might know, and it should be in my mind, if for no other reason than to mitigate the risk of a cancerous element in the clubhouse. We all know what a drain on energy, morale, enjoyment, and productivity a miscreant causes in environments where we've worked. Magnify the destructive nature severalfold when it comes to a 25-man clubhouse.

 

Sure there is relation to WAR and how players are valued, as there should be.  I'm simply talking about the $$/War figure that gets thrown around like "each 1 point WAR is worth $10 million to a team". There is no relation to salaries and that number. Higher WAR players make more money than lower WAR players, but they don't negotiate off of the $10 million / WAR figure. 

 

Re: Character - see my earlier post regarding Ardolis Chapman. I don't really think there's much of a correlation, Dozier may be a great guy but it hasn't exactly translated to his team winning a bunch of games

[Brock Beauchamp]

I'm not sure that solves your .750 vs. .850 point though. Two weeks might add some clarity, but streaky hitters are hard to bank on.

 

I doubt the Twins get any more information about Dozier in two weeks. What they will get information on, is whether this team should remain a seller. A 9 game road trip will (hopefully) make it clear. On Dozier, I think everyone knows where things are:

 

Shop the streaky hitter and sell teams on the idea that he is about to be a lineup-carrying force and try to get a good rental price. If you can't....then you're left with QO vs. extension as you grind out the last two months of the season. Nothing about the next two weeks changes that IMO.

My post was too short. In two weeks, the Twins will know whether to sell. If Dozier is still rolling, they’ll also have a better trade piece on their hands if selling is the obvious answer.

[jkcarew]

I would think the Brewers have grown more desperate over the last 2 weeks.  It will be interesting.  So many moving pieces including how the FO values Escobar and Gordon, Sano's immediate future, etc.  I remain of the opinion that the 2018 team is not worthy of any short-term decision making of any kind.

[Dman]

Yeah I wonder what the Brewers are willing to give up for Manny.  Manny would be a real difference maker for them this year but I would hope they wouldn't give up too much for a rental.  Nothing like the deadline to ratchet up the price. 

 

Hopefully once the Manny saga is over we can see if teams come calling for Esco or Dozier.

[Dman]

 

 

 

Re: Character - see my earlier post regarding Ardolis Chapman. I don't really think there's much of a correlation, Dozier may be a great guy but it hasn't exactly translated to his team winning a bunch of games

 

While the front office (at least during the draft) repeated they like high character guys no one seems to be able to identify who all the low character guys are. How many low character guys do we need to get rid of on the Twins team? Since about 99% of the players get labeled high character guys I guess the term loses all meaning for me.  High character does not appear to something that is in short supply in baseball.  Due to that fact the term is for all intents and purposes meaningless as far as I can tell.

 

Yeah I get the one bad apple and all but rarely do you see it have much influence at least not that I can tell.  Yep everyone has different personalities some easier to deal with than others but when it comes to playing the game they all want to win and if a player doesn't work at his craft there is always someone better waiting to take their place. 

 

Typically the bad character angle comes up when teams are losing.  Yeah guys are not going to be happy losing and there is a lot of pressure to perform.  That can boil over some but I don't think it has to do with bad character just wanting to win and be a productive player.

 

Maybe their are red flag guys out there it just seems we don't hear about very many.  I'd bet every player the Twins have has high character can you name any that don't?

[Mike Sixel]

Also in the aftermath of the Machado sweepstakes, the Brewers are left looking to acquire an infield upgrade. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports that they’re expected to explore trading for Twins second baseman Brian Dozier. With Minnesota all but out of the the AL Central race already and Dozier set to become a free agent at season’s end, he makes plenty of sense as a potential trade target for the Brewers, despite a down season so far. The Brewers are also expected to explore pitching upgrades, Rosenthal adds.

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/

[Dman]

Dozier and Milwaukee should be a home run match made in heaven.  The Brewers do like guys who can hit the long ball.  Dozier would be a good fit for them if they can pry him loose from the Twins.

[NewClearHarley]

 

I have zero interest in paying Dozier 17MM next year. 

so you don't want a solid 2B that will produce a 80-20-80-10 line for $17MM next year. What second basemen do you intend to play that will produce those stats next year for less money (unless Gordon is ready - and even then his numbers will be nowhere near that in his first full MLB season)

[twins_89]

If Dozier has a second half anywhere close to what he's done in the last couple of years, I'll be more than happy to give him a qualifying offer. If he accepts, the one year deal isn't going to hurt the club and they will still have the option to trade him at next year's trade deadline. If he declines, the Twins will get a fairly good compensation pick (which I would be happy with as well). To make a trade worthwhile, the value of the package coming back would have to match a 1st round compensation pick plus the value of Dozier for the rest of the season.

[Mike Sixel]

so you don't want a solid 2B that will produce a 80-20-80-10 line for $17MM next year. What second basemen do you intend to play that will produce those stats next year for less money (unless Gordon is ready - and even then his numbers will be nowhere near that in his first full MLB season)

I don't think there is one. Unfortunately.