Would You Trade Eduardo Escobar?

USAFChief · June 29, 2018

Listen to offers.

But GMs are not going to view him as a .900 OPS infielder.

And the Twins shouldn't make the mistake of paying him like one.

A 3/30 extension sounds reasonable, and provides some 3b insurance.

jun · June 29, 2018

It’s pretty tough to get behind any position given we don’t know what type of contract it would take to keep him or what type of player we get back. We have to make assumptions. Let’s start with what will it take to keep him. I am going to assume 3/27. I doubt the Twins or any other team would make a $17M+ QO with the low cost infield depth we have. That money would be more valuable invest elsewhere.
In terms of return, Mejia or an even slightly better prospect seems reasonable. Escobar has been better this year than Nunez was the year we traded him and he was better last year as compared to the year prior to the Nunez trade.

Therefore, the benefit(s) of keeping him IMO is that they have a slightly better chance of signing him next year. The benefits are a prospect slightly better than Mejia and $9M to spend elsewhere. Put the $9M toward a really good bullpen arm. Plus, 6 years of an inexpensive #4 starter and there is just no way I can justify extending Escobar. Of course, the prospect might bust and it might be the next Corey Kluber or Noah Syndergaard. The $9M bullpen arm might be mediocre but Escobar could also return to his career numbers. Letting him go has a considerably higher potential upside. If the return is a better prospect than Mejia, sorry, I am trading Escobar unless I can sign him at 3/21.

You are not going to sign him at 3/21M, I believe 3/30M-36M would be more reasonable based on his production on and off the field. This season seems to be a lost season due to lacking of offense. Pitching has been decent. To me, the problem of this team is NOT ENOUGH EDS on the team. So please trade anyone else and leave my ed alone and extend him as much as they can.

Tomj14 · June 29, 2018

If you extend him (not arguing either way) to something in the 3/30-36m, doesn't that mean he has to be a starter someplace place the next two years? 3B, SS or 2B?

If you assume Polanco and Gordon are in the middle some place, that means he has to be 3B.

Forcing Sano to 1B or DH, and Dozier will have to go and probably Mauer unless you platoon him and Sano at 1B and DH.

So I guess this all comes down to what happens with Sano, man he can make or break this team for years to come.

Dman · June 29, 2018

It obviously depends on the return as to whether or not you trade him. We have a lot of C+ talent in the system as it is so adding more mediocre lottery tickets isn't really worth trading him IMO. If someone ponies up a top 100 prospect or at minimum B type prospect then I think you need to trade him. As there is certainly a possibility that he leaves at the end of this year and we get nothing.

If he keeps slumping there is also a possibility that his value decreases anyway. I have always loved this guy as a player and thought they should have played him more than they did in the past. But if he can fetch a good return then trade him and if you really want him back then offer him more money than anyone else and he will return.

Kelly Vance · June 29, 2018

Call up Tony Soprano to teach Eduardo about 'loyalty'... If you catch my drift.

Thanks for the pic of my friend Jimmy.

BTW, Jimmy was a really gentle guy in real life. A Jersey boy. He got such a kick out of playing a badass. So sad that he passed so young.

Kelly Vance · June 29, 2018

Trading him guarantees a prospect, and a chance to sign him besides. A QO guarantees a prospect (who will be further away), does NOT guarantee Escobar signs, and totally prohibits the chance of ending up with both Escobar and a prospect. Why would you do that? Because you really want Escobar and don’t think anyone would match the QO?

For a three month rental you don't get that great of a prospect. And I don't believe you get EE back if you trade him. So I think the idea of getting both EE and a prospect is remote, not a given.

Kelly Vance · June 29, 2018

Extend him as much as they can, show him the appreciation, tell him he is as important as Buxton or Sano to this team. If he still wants to leave, then let him go. At least they made all the efforts, therefore no regrets. That also shows other players how much this team values good work on and off the field.

Exactly what I am saying. These guys are ballplayers first and millionaires second. Show EE the love and see what happens.

Kelly Vance · June 29, 2018

It’s pretty tough to get behind any position given we don’t know what type of contract it would take to keep him or what type of player we get back. We have to make assumptions. Let’s start with what will it take to keep him. I am going to assume 3/27. I doubt the Twins or any other team would make a $17M+ QO with the low cost infield depth we have. That money would be more valuable invest elsewhere.
In terms of return, Mejia or an even slightly better prospect seems reasonable. Escobar has been better this year than Nunez was the year we traded him and he was better last year as compared to the year prior to the Nunez trade.

Therefore, the benefit(s) of keeping him IMO is that they have a slightly better chance of signing him next year. The benefits are a prospect slightly better than Mejia and $9M to spend elsewhere. Put the $9M toward a really good bullpen arm. Plus, 6 years of an inexpensive #4 starter and there is just no way I can justify extending Escobar. Of course, the prospect might bust and it might be the next Corey Kluber or Noah Syndergaard. The $9M bullpen arm might be mediocre but Escobar could also return to his career numbers. Letting him go has a considerably higher potential upside. If the return is a better prospect than Mejia, sorry, I am trading Escobar unless I can sign him at 3/21.

Last offseason proved that we are in a falling market. I don't think we get the return we got with Nunez. And Mejia has not helped the club much really. Nunez has been an All Star and a starter. I think you are discounting the known factor versus unknown prospect. EE is worth a lot more than a prospect, but for a 3 month rental, I doubt we get anything close to even Mejia.

Major League Ready · June 29, 2018

Last offseason proved that we are in a falling market. I don't think we get the return we got with Nunez. And Mejia has not helped the club much really. Nunez has been an All Star and a starter. I think you are discounting the known factor versus unknown prospect. EE is worth a lot more than a prospect, but for a 3 month rental, I doubt we get anything close to even Mejia.

It's obviously of no value to move EE If we can't get a prospect with value. I have not seen anywhere here just get whatever you can because he is a free agent. EE might not be in demand but he has been a more impactful player than Nunez was before being traded so it would not be a shock if someone ponied up if he remains hot through the All-Star break. This is just one of the variables necessary to clarify before trading or not trading makes sense.

There does seem to be a presumption that trading him now would have a significant negative impact on resigning him next year. If handled correctly, and if he really does have some loyalty / wants to be here, I would surely hope he would understand it makes a great deal of sense for the Twins to rent him to another team while giving him a shot at post season play.

There is also a presumption that EE>Gordon + whatever player they could reinvest the $10M/year or whatever salary we are assuming to be realistic. I am not sure how to evaluate that equation because EE's numbers the 1st half of this year are a significant anomaly. I would hope Gordon would produce better than EE did through 2017 over the course of his 1st years. Then, what if the prospect is a 2-3 WAR pitcher with 6 years of control. This decision could swing wildly in favor of Gordon + FA + Prospect. Isn't this exactly what we need to do to bridge the gap with the several teams that have significantly more talent that us?

jorgenswest · June 29, 2018

If the return is clearly better than a comp pick, take it.

If not, make the qualifying offer. If Escobar takes the offer, we get a valuable piece and can afford the 1 year deal.

jkcarew · June 29, 2018

For a three month rental you don't get that great of a prospect. And I don't believe you get EE back if you trade him. So I think the idea of getting both EE and a prospect is remote, not a given.

I have no problem extending Escobar for a fair price. Sano could move across the diamond, or Sano could continue to struggle.

But if there's a non-zero chance you can't extend him prior to free agency...or, he indicates at all a desire to expose himself to the open market...then you have to trade him. In that scenario, trading him does not materially impact your ability to get him back. He'll end up with the team that offers him the best overall deal. If that's the Twins, then that's the Twins.

Major League Ready · June 29, 2018

If the return is clearly better than a comp pick, take it.

If not, make the qualifying offer. If Escobar takes the offer, we get a valuable piece and can afford the 1 year deal.

Do you believe EE would add enough value over Gordon to make up for investing the $17M in two bullpen arms or a 1B if Sano does not end up bouncing back?

jorgenswest · June 29, 2018

Do you believe EE would add enough value over Gordon to make up for investing the $17M in two bullpen arms or a !B if Sano does not end up bouncing back?

Do you have confidence they can identify two good bullpen arms for 17 million?

Yes. I think Escobar adds enough value. I also think there is space for both Gordon and Escobar on the roster. I certainly don’t want to go into the season with Gordon at 2B and Sano at 3B and Adrianza as the top reserve.

Mike Sixel · June 29, 2018

Do you have confidence they can identify two good bullpen arms for 17 million?

Yes. I think Escobar adds enough value. I also think there is space for both Gordon and Escobar on the roster. I certainly don’t want to go into the season with Gordon at 2B and Sano at 3B and Adrianza as the top reserve.

They won't identify any if they pay EE twice what he's worth.

USAFChief · June 29, 2018

In response to a question above about paying Escobar means he has to be a starter...one of the attractions of Escobar is he can be a virtual starter, but not at one position. Fill in at three IF positions plus DH a bit. He can get 500 plus PAs without being tied to one spot on the diamond.

jorgenswest · June 29, 2018

They won't identify any if they pay EE twice what he's worth.

I expect around 2 WAR and am happy to pay the qualifying money on a one year deal.

Dman · June 29, 2018

A couple of things to remember. It is a while ago now but we were going to resign Carlos Silva to a decent deal and I believe the Mariners swept in and offered him crazy money. Even though we needed pitching we let him walk. So even if you don't trade EE at the deadline that doesn't mean he signs with the Twins for sure.

Players always talk about getting respect from organizations. Respect is a code word for $$. If you respect me then pay me. Even if they really like the team they are on if an offer isn't close they will leave. If EE continues to produce at this level and the Twins want him they simply have to be willing to pay more than the other guys. Doesn't matter if he is traded or not.

Major League Ready · June 29, 2018

Do you have confidence they can identify two good bullpen arms for 17 million?

Yes. I think Escobar adds enough value. I also think there is space for both Gordon and Escobar on the roster. I certainly don’t want to go into the season with Gordon at 2B and Sano at 3B and Adrianza as the top reserve.

A market price of a combined $17M suggests quite strongly that the market has concluded these would be two very good bullpen arms, right. We are not talking about $1M/year or $2M or even $5M/year so yes I believe the most reasonable assumption would be that the two BP arms would provide significant value. If you believe Escobar is going to be a 4 WAR player going forward as he has the 1st half. Then, signing him to a 3 year deal would be very smart. However, he has averaged 1 WAR the previous 6 seasons. I think that's a very bad bet. Therefore, we will have to agree to disagree. Signing a guy who has averaged 1 WAR up to now for $17M when you have a player that should be more valuable waiting at AAA would be grossly incompetent IMO. The odds are significantly better the net of Gordon and the 2 BP arms provide more value is quite good. Plus, we have not discussed the value of the trade piece. If that player is even a good BP arm the deal swings considerably in favor of moving on.

jorgenswest · June 29, 2018

A market price of a combined $17M suggests quite strongly that the market has concluded these would be two very good bullpen arms, right. We are not talking about $1M/year or $2M or even $5M/year so yes I believe the most reasonable assumption would be that the two BP arms would provide significant value. If you believe Escobar is going to be a 4 WAR player going forward as he has the 1st half. Then, signing him to a 3 year deal would be very smart. However, he has averaged 1 WAR the previous 6 seasons. I think that's a very bad bet. Therefore, we will have to agree to disagree. Signing a guy who has averaged 1 WAR up to now for $17M when you have a player that should be more valuable waiting at AAA would be grossly incompetent IMO. The odds are significantly better the net of Gordon and the 2 BP arms provide more value is quite good. Plus, we have not discussed the value of the trade piece. If that player is even a good BP arm the deal swings considerably in favor of moving on.

Are they really going to find two good relievers willing to take one year deals? How many relievers took a 1 year deal this year at 8-9 million? Escobar’s deal is a one year deal.

Major League Ready · June 29, 2018

Are they really going to find two good relievers willing to take one year deals? How many relievers took a 1 year deal this year at 8-9 million? Escobar’s deal is a one year deal.

Probably none. I thought it was obvious the assumption is that they invest beyond 1 year deals because that type of RP is not taking a 1 year deal. They certainly have the budget.

Mike Sixel · June 29, 2018

Are they really going to find two good relievers willing to take one year deals? How many relievers took a 1 year deal this year at 8-9 million? Escobar’s deal is a one year deal.

then what do you do with EE the following year? Sign an even older player to a three year deal? You can't QO him again.....

jorgenswest · June 29, 2018

then what do you do with EE the following year? Sign an even older player to a three year deal? You can't QO him again.....

I am not extending EE. I want the flexibility to see my needs after next season.

One year deal for a player that can play 3 positions and plenty of money in the budget to fill other needs for next year. Does it look like the money is going to be so tight that they can’t afford this one year deal? Does it really come down down to the choice of Escobar or bullpen?

I hate mutiyear deals to players who are average i their primes and will likely decline into their 30s.

I hate multiyear deals to relievers. There is no position more volatile and I would strongly prefer younger arms in most of those roles.

Mike Sixel · June 29, 2018

I am not extending EE. I want the flexibility to see my needs after next season.

One year deal for a player that can play 3 positions and plenty of money in the budget to fill other needs for next year. Does it look like the money is going to be so tight that they can’t afford this one year deal? Does it really come down down to the choice of Rscobar or bullpen?

I hate mutiyear deals to players who are average i their primes and will likely decline into their 30s.

I hate multiyear deals to relievers. There is no position more volatile and I would strongly prefer younger arms in most of those roles.

if you aren't going to sign him past next year, why sign him for next year? I mean, unless they get a lot better, they aren't a utility player away......I'm all for going for it, but I'm not sure I get why you'd only want him for 1 year.

Call up Gordon now, and see what you have. I don't care if they cut Dozier at this point.

Otto von Ballpark · June 29, 2018

I expect around 2 WAR and am happy to pay the qualifying money on a one year deal.

What if you think he would sign for 2/20 or something?

TheLeviathan · June 29, 2018

After last offseason, wouldn't a 1 year QO be a gimme for Escobar to take? I'm not sure, if the goal is to retain him, that we'd have to go that far.

Major League Ready · June 30, 2018

What if you think he would sign for 2/20 or something?

That would be very interesting. It should lineup well with the arrival/readiness of the great IF prospects we have in the minors. It would also depend on the state of Sano and what other holes we need to fill so I could not offer an opinion until free agency begins.

howeda7 · June 30, 2018

I agree that Escobar hasn't been a part of the problem. I just meant that poster made it seem like if we traded Escobar we'd be ruining a good clubhouse environment, and I was saying I don't think there is a good clubhouse environment to ruin. So, for me at least, the whole leadership/good clubhouse presence angle is a non factor in any Escobar trade discussions. I know the players and fans all love the guy and he's definitely a good clubhouse guy, but I do not care about that at all if we're not winning games.

Escobar is widely acknowledged as one of the team leaders. We're keeping Matt Belisle around even though he throws batting practice. It's not worth nothing. But the bottom line is he can play multiple positions and he can hit. That's easily worth keeping around for a reasonable price.

jorgenswest · June 30, 2018

What if you think he would sign for 2/20 or something?

In either case first I try to trade him and take the best offer that is above the comp pick bar. That really isn’t a very high bar. I don’t think I offer 2/20 right now. The nice thing about the qualifying offer is that the Twins get to see that he ends healthy. They also see the progress Sano made towards being a regular 3B.

howeda7 · June 30, 2018

Do you believe EE would add enough value over Gordon to make up for investing the $17M in two bullpen arms or a 1B if Sano does not end up bouncing back?

I reject the premise. Right now, if we let everyone who's a FA walk and replace them with rookies, our 2019 payroll would be around $55 million (assuming you count Hughes as a 2018 write-off). Salary is not an issue.

Brock Beauchamp · June 30, 2018

If you can get a top 75 prospect for him - unlikely, I know - you do that.

If not, ride it out and QO the guy.

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