The Twins Ace(s)?

[DocBauer]

Not going to get in to the debate again as to what truly makes a SP qualify as a true ACE. I think there are truly very few that are the type to truly dominate night after night. The kind of guy you expect to start the All Star game. When you look at a Verlander or a Kershaw, you just nod your head and say, "Yep. That's an ACE right there."

 

But a high performing, reliable, quality #1 starter on most any team is still often referenced as being an ace, at least in the context of that team. And I think that label is inexact, but generally fair. Right now, that pitcher for the Twins is Berrios. And he deserves the title. But I think an argument could be made the Twins have a second pitcher that may deserve to share the title in Kyle Gibson.

 

Both have similar trajectories in the fact each was a high draft choice, though one from college and one as a high schooler. Both lit things up in their milb career and held lofty hopes to being a front of the rotation starter. Gibson arrived older, and lost a season to surgery, but hopes and expectations were similar for both pitchers. And both arrived with poor results on their initial indoctrination to ML ball, Berrios in 2016 and Gibson in 2013. Berrios turned things around pretty quickly in the next year, showed tons of promise, and looks to be fulfilling his promise and potential more and more here in 2018.

 

And while it has taken Gibson longer to perhaps finally fulfill his potential, I also think he gets a bit of a bum rap. I am not going to post numbers, you can easily look them up yourselves, but in 2014 Gibson had a good, solid full season in 31 starts, barely missing rookie status that season by 1 1/3 IP. In virtually every single statistical category, Gibson improved in 2015, his second full season in MLB. There is no doubt the train ran off the tracks for Gibson in 2016 and the first half of 2017. (Then again, virtually the entire team was a train wreck in 2016). So much has already been written and discussed about Gibson's turnaround in 2017 that I am not going to rehash it here. Suffice it to say, something changed. And it's carried over to 2018.

 

As good as Berrios has been this season, I offer up a 2018 comparison for the two here:

 

 

GS ERA IP H BB SO AVG OPS WHIP BB/9 SO/9

Berrios 14 3.51 89.2 70 15 91 .211 .619 .95 1.51 9.13

Gibson 14 3.27 82.2 61 36 81 .205 .625 1.17 3.92 8.82

 

While Berrios is younger and offers even more potential, this is about now and not a couple years from now. Other than BB, Gibson almost matches Berrios's numbers in every category.

 

For the sake of fun and further comparison, let's look at Santana's 2017 season, which has been one of the best of his career, when he was the teams defer to ace.

 

ERA AVG OPS WHIP BB/9 SO/9

Santana 3.28 .225 .678 1.13 2.60 7.11 (33 GS and 211.1 IP)

 

This is NOT to dismiss the contributions of Romero, or his potential. But right now, it seems to me the Twins may actually have a pair of top of the rotation starters. And one is definitely someone not expected to be there.

[Shaitan]

While I know the point of this discussion isn't to define an ace, I think one important aspect is how deep they pitch into the game. An ace doesn't just wow you on the mound, they protect the bullpen by going 6+ more often than not.

 

Gibson isn't quite there at 5.8 per start. Berrios is barely above 6. I still enjoy watching both pitch, of course, and this is my own made up rule just now.

[Mr. Brooks]

While I know the point of this discussion isn't to define an ace, I think one important aspect is how deep they pitch into the game. An ace doesn't just wow you on the mound, they protect the bullpen by going 6+ more often than not.

 

Gibson isn't quite there at 5.8 per start. Berrios is barely above 6. I still enjoy watching both pitch, of course, and this is my own made up rule just now.

Those numbers by themselves don't tell me much.

Where do those rank among qualified starters?

Berrios averaging over 6 per start actually seems to me would rank pretty high in the league. That is a 200 IP pace, and almost nobody pitches 200 innings anymore.

[DocBauer]

Those numbers by themselves don't tell me much.

Where do those rank among qualified starters?

Berrios averaging over 6 per start actually seems to me would rank pretty high in the league. That is a 200 IP pace, and almost nobody pitches 200 innings anymore.

Agreed on your point as to how their numbers compare to the rest of the league. And that could be a good exercise. However, this is more about a comparison to one another and how well each is pitching. i.e. if Berrios is out best pitcher, just how close are these two.

 

I believe the league average IP for starters is currently 5.1. Perhaps someone could confirm that.

[ashbury]

I am glad he has made such strides lately, but are there any actual good teams for whom Gibson would top their rotation?

[jorgenswest]

Gibson is 35th in innings pitched. Berrios is 14th.

 

Gibson has been pulled 5 times with less than 100 pitches and 2 or less runs given up. His last two starts have been his longest.

 

His innings per start number is low due to Molitor’s reluctance earlier in the season to stick with him. Many of us might have responded the same way given Gibson’s career.

[Danchat]

 

I am glad he has made such strides lately, but are there any actual good teams for whom Gibson would top their rotation?

Looking through just the AL, I can tell you he'd be the best starter on the Royals, and debatably on the Orioles and A's.

[alarp33]

 

Gibson is 35th in innings pitched. Berrios is 14th.

Gibson has been pulled 5 times with less than 100 pitches and 2 or less runs given up. His last two starts have been his longest.

His innings per start number is low due to Molitor’s reluctance earlier in the season to stick with him. Many of us might have responded the same way given Gibson’s career.

 

I'm not sure it means much, but Gibson averages about 2 pitchers more per inning that Berrios.  That certainly plays in to the lower IP as well.  

[DocBauer]

32 starts, Gibson would 188 IP currently. Behind Berrios, but impressive.

[AZTwin]

Gibson is turning into a good player to have on the team.  Wouldn't be opposed to a 3 or 4 year deal with him this off season.

[Thrylos]

 

I am glad he has made such strides lately, but are there any actual good teams for whom Gibson would top their rotation?

 

Exactly.  Ditto for Berrios, btw. 

 

The Twins are much better now than when Diamond or Nolasco were their number 1, but still need at least another  a top of the rotation arm to be thought of as serious contenders.

[IndianaTwin]

I’ll see your Gibson and your Berrios and raise you a Lance Lynn.

 

He’s given up 8 runs in his last 32.1 innings over 5 starts. That’s a 2.24 ERA and an average of 6.46 innings per start.

 

You can say SSS and point to his April. I say look at his career and April is the SSS outlier.

 

But hey, let’s not quibble over Berrios vs. Gibson vs. Lynn. Let’s just enjoy it and keep the bats rolling.

[stringer bell]

At various points, all five in the rotation have looked like they belonged near the top of this rotation. Romero hasn't been able to go very deep into games. The same is true in the case of Odorizzi. Lynn, Berrios, and Gibson are currently going well. Gibson has been by far the most consistent of the five. Berrios has had several outstanding starts, but a few poor ones. Lynn seems to have found what he had with the Cards.

[Han Joelo]

I know some are still skittish, but I think I have the most confidence in Gibson of all the starters right now.  I just feel good about the likelihood of the Twins being in the game when he is pitching.  Berrios is closing the gap, as expected, and that last outing (I think) he showed he could battle through a game where a lot of guys got on--but I still want to see an extended run of stinker free dominance before I make him my default WC game starter.  (Not that they're going to the WC game.  Just sayin)

 

Honestly, if that were the situation, I think I'd start Gibby in the WC, and then feel good about Berrios lined up for Game 1 of the ALDS.

[rdehring]

I have believed, like you, that many teams have a #1 starter and there are very few true ACES in baseball.  The example I always refer to is Brad Radke.  Was a solid #1 starter for the Twins for a long time.  Yet, as good as he was, he wasn't a true ACE in the mold of Pedro, Roger, Johan or Randy Johnson.  And when he and Johan were on the same staff, he still was a #1 quality starter.  And yes, some teams don't have a #1 starter...even though someone is filling that role.  

 

I don't think that Berrios is at the point he is a true ACE.  However, he is on the verge and sometime in the next year will have earned that claim.  I also believe that Romero has both that ability and potential.  Just is a year or two further than Berrios.

 

As for Gibson.  I don't put him in that category, even though he is pitching as well as Berrios this year.  I see him more of a Radke level pitcher.  That's a pitcher who could be a #1 starter for a lot of teams, just not for a team with a true ACE.  But put him with an Ace (Berrios) and a second pitcher with that potential (Romero) and you have the making of a championship staff.  And that is certainly someone who deserves an extension this winter. 

[nclahammer]

Forget about the Twins record, injuries, offensive struggles (by several), I'm quite pleased from what I've seen overall by Minnesota's starting pitchers.  Refreshing is the word that comes to mind.

 

[Twodogs]

I have believed, like you, that many teams have a #1 starter and there are very few true ACES in baseball. The example I always refer to is Brad Radke. Was a solid #1 starter for the Twins for a long time. Yet, as good as he was, he wasn't a true ACE in the mold of Pedro, Roger, Johan or Randy Johnson. And when he and Johan were on the same staff, he still was a #1 quality starter. And yes, some teams don't have a #1 starter...even though someone is filling that role.

 

I don't think that Berrios is at the point he is a true ACE. However, he is on the verge and sometime in the next year will have earned that claim. I also believe that Romero has both that ability and potential. Just is a year or two further than Berrios.

 

As for Gibson. I don't put him in that category, even though he is pitching as well as Berrios this year. I see him more of a Radke level pitcher. That's a pitcher who could be a #1 starter for a lot of teams, just not for a team with a true ACE. But put him with an Ace (Berrios) and a second pitcher with that potential (Romero) and you have the making of a championship staff. And that is certainly someone who deserves an extension this winter.

I think starting pitching has changed a lot since the days of Brad Radke. During his 12 year career he had 10 seasons on 181 or more innings pitched and 9 seasons over 200 as the 181 innings came in his rookie season. His last season he threw like 162 innings or something like that. He was pitching right smack dab in the middle of the Steroid era too. So I think his numbers probably translate pretty well into today's game. I'd say in his prime he'd be a #1 on a lot of today's teams. Johan would still be one of the top 3 or 4 pitchers in any given year in today's game, probably #1 in some seasons just like he was back then. Both of those guys would give the bullpen a lot or rest today.