Article: LAA 2, MIN 1: Ohtani Excellent as Angels Walk Off Twins

[Tom Froemming]

Here are Zach Duke's splits on the year, albeit in some pretty small samples:

 

vs. LHB (20 PAs)

.118/.250/.118 (.368 OPS) 83.5 avg. exit velo

 

vs. RHB (45 PAs)

.278/.422/.361 (.783 OPS) 88.0 avg. exit velo

 

Of course, the big problem yesterday was that Duke hit the leadoff guy when he already had two strikes on him. That was such a nasty pitch that the batter checked his swing on a ball that hit him on the back shin. Also, to be fair, Duke has intentionally walked three RHB and they have an unsustainability high .435 BABIP against him.

 

But ...

 

If you're forced to turn to Duke against a bunch of righties in a tie ballgame, your bullpen needs some adjusting. In 2018, there's just no way to hide a pitcher. Phil Hughes either needs to be used in games or needs to get released.

[gunnarthor]

Good road trip. Splitting four games with the Angels is pretty good, especially with all the injuries the team has right now. They could easily have won yesterday. I'm getting sick of these rough losses (6 walk offs already?).

 

 

[Tom Froemming]

 

And I think this is where the limits of something like statcast shows up, determining hit probability based solely on exit velocity and launch angle.

 

The ball was directly in the right center gap, didn't have a great deal of hang time, short hopped the wall, and neither outfielder came anywhere close to catching it. There is no way that ball is a hit only 43 percent of the time. 

Yep, hit probability and catch probability are two different things. Hit probability doesn't take defensive positioning into account at all. Unfortunately, they make catch probability very difficult to find and only highlight it when a fielder makes a sensational play.

 

But, just forget I even brought any of that up, my main argument is that ball was in the air a very long time. You could see where a player's clock in his head would say that's going to get caught. Adrianza could have done a better job reading the defense, but taking off on the pitch I'm sure made that a bit more difficult. It certainly was not a great base running play, but there was some stuff going on there where I can see why it caused him some trouble.

 

It's unfortunate. If he would have even advanced another foot or two while that ball was in the air he's safe and the Twins probably win that game. 

[Blake]

Twice this year, the Twins have been involved in outstanding games during the regular season.

 

That crazy game in PR against the Indians the Twins won in extras and now this game against the Angels.

 

Yeah, the funk the team went into between then and now was maddening, but, this team is really looking good now.

 

Should be fun going forward this year.

[Doubles]

The bad news:  With all due respect (and,has anything respectful ever followed that disclaimer?), there was no way Grossman's ball was gonna be caught.  Right fielder Young's numbers were visible the entire time as he was in pursuit.  Judging from the way the ball came down pretty quickly towards the end, it probably had a ton of topspin on it.  You can see Young turn his shoulders to start to play the ball off the wall when Trout swoops in from out of camera range and grabs it.  If nothing else, on a ball behind him, Adrianza should have checked with Glynn, who had a far easier read to make on that ball from the third base coaching box.  Not scoring from first base on that ball, when running with the pitch, is bad baserunning, plain & simple.

 

The good news:  We are bemoaning a tough loss that capped off a 7-3 roadie against one horrible team & two excellent teams.  Given the recent rough patch, this is a very good thing.  Looks like the ship is well on its way to being righted.  Got to get to .500, then start making hay from there.  

[stringer bell]

 

It was a tough turn on a big hop to 3B with Upton speed from home to first. It was turnable but it was not easily turnable. 

 

IMO... The double play wasn't the defining moment of the 5th inning. Two batters before was the moment. With nobody out and Maldonado on 2nd base. Petit at SS tried to make an impossible throw to get Cozart on a ground ball deep in the hole. He had no chance... he wasn't even close and the impossible throw attempt allowed Maldanado to advance to third on the throw. If he puts the ball in his pocket. Maldanado has to freeze at 2nd and there isn't a runner on third when Upton is up. 

 

On the Adrianaza (I assume you meant) play at the plate. He was off with the pitch so I assume that he didn't see the ball leave the bat. The ball was also hit behind him so he stopped to find the ball and this cost him momentum while the ball bounced directly off the wall to Trout, who cleanly hit the cut, and a strike was delivered home and he was out by a fairly large margin. Adrianaza probably wasn't perfect on his base running but I am really curious if the 3rd base coach waived him around. He would have had enough data to put up a stop sign. I have not seen video to say for sure. 

 

Hindsight... He should have stopped at third. 

 

All in All... It was a great game. I enjoyed every pitch. 

Was listening on the radio at the time, and Corey and Gladden agreed Petit should have held the ball. Maldonado is a catcher--it probably takes two singles to score him from second. A small misplay that cost a run in a one-run game.

[Dantes929]

 

Yep, hit probability and catch probability are two different things. Hit probability doesn't take defensive positioning into account at all. Unfortunately, they make catch probability very difficult to find and only highlight it when a fielder makes a sensational play.

 

But, just forget I even brought any of that up, my main argument is that ball was in the air a very long time. You could see where a player's clock in his head would say that's going to get caught. Adrianza could have done a better job reading the defense, but taking off on the pitch I'm sure made that a bit more difficult. It certainly was not a great base running play, but there was some stuff going on there where I can see why it caused him some trouble.

 

It's unfortunate. If he would have even advanced another foot or two while that ball was in the air he's safe and the Twins probably win that game. 

You can see in the replay above that it sure looks like Adrianza sees the ball and is shuffling along to make sure it isn't caught.    He is facing the outfielders.   I think he could have had a little more momentum going and made the decision sooner.   If a diving catch was made he still had time to get back.     Great play by the Angels and by no means am I laying blame for the loss at his feet.   Just not a great read.     No where near my pet peeve of when a hitter is running but not all out and then decide to try for another base.   You can actually see them turn on another gear and then get thrown out by inches.   Running more aggressively from the start gets them the base easily.  

[jtkoupal]

sure would have loved to steal this game, but it's hard to be upset about what the Twins did on this road trip. Won a couple of games against a first-place team and split with a very hot Angels ball club. This homestead could be exactly what the Twins need to get back to or maybe even over the .500 mark.

 

This homestead won't be easy. The Cardinals, albeit beat up a bit, are still very dangerous. The Mariners, even sans Cano, are still a threat. The Brewers have been a good team most of this season. And although the Tigers are cold, you can't overlook them. They can still do damage if taken for granted. 

 

This 9 game homestand should hopefully produce at least 5 wins. Hopefully more, but that should be the basement for this homestead.

[h2oface]

 

Who would you have used? Rogers, Pressly, and Reed already pitched, Hildenberger wasn't available, and Rodney needed to be saved to close out the game. That leaves Duke, Magill and Hughes.

 

No, I am neither amazed nor disgusted that Molitor chose Zach Duke over Matt Magill and Phil Hughes to pitch the bottom of the 9th inning of a tie game.

 

Magill. This was Duke's third day in a row, and Magill had Saturday off (after pitching scoreless innings with no walks and only one hit total on Thursday and Friday). And Magill is right handed. Magill has had a real nice run since acquired (surprisingly to me), and it was a great time to see what he had, especially after coming up big in the 8th on Friday, in a tie game. And he is right handed. Oh, sorry. I already said that. Definitely not Duke. Definitely Magill, had it been up to me, which, of course, it wasn't and isn't. Thanks for asking.

[Mr. Brooks]

I also would use basically anyone in baseball who happens to throw righthanded, before using Duke against consecutive righties.

[USAFChief]

I would actually have gone with Hughes to start the 9th. You're already playing with house money, so to speak, on the road trip. Your bullpen is gassed. You don't have any good RH options anyway, and there's a decent chance the game is going to go extras and you'll use him anyway. Maybe he gets shelled and you send a message to your front office that if you put someone in my pen, you're forcing my hand.

 

Just roll the dice, don't put any more innings on the rest of your pen, and hope for the best with Hughes. At the least, he's unlikely to be wild and issue a bunch of walks.