Twins Still Pursuing Lance Lynn?

[Tomj14]

 

That would be my hesitation too... Ownership justifying that we spent $x MM on Lynn/Pineda and all of the bullpen guys! Now you expect us to sign another pitcher to a larger contract this offseason?
 

Is there any front end rotation guys next year?

[Loosey]

I don't understand the worries people have about giving up a 2nd/3rd round pick to sign Lynn.  I would take a proven starting pitcher any day over a 2nd round pick.  I would say a 2nd round picks chances of pitching in the Majors are probably a ~70%, and the chances they are a good starter would be even less.  Take the sure thing when you are within your window of contention.

 

 

[Vanimal46]

Is there any front end rotation guys next year?

None that the Twins would realistically be able to sign. Kershaw and Kuechel. There are others but I forgot.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

None that the Twins would realistically be able to sign. Kershaw and Kuechel. There are others but I forgot.

 

yeah, if the Twins wouldn't go 6/150 for Darvish, I don't see them breaking the bank for Kershaw or Price.

[twinscowboysbulls]

Don’t sign anyone.

Go get Archer.

 

Sano, etc for him. Get it done.

[nicksaviking]

 

I have no idea what they are doing, so I won't guess on that answer.....

 

But, and I often agree with him, nicksaviking is wrong, imo.

 

1. There is no ACE available right now. There won't be until July at the earliest, and there might not be then either. 

2. The FO has been quoted as saying they are reluctant (or something like that) to give up prospects in deals.

3. Lynn (and probably Cobb) is likely better than anyone not named Berrios/ESAN, imo. Do people really want Sanchez in this rotation for a month or 6-8 weeks, while we wait for ESAN to return? Ugh.

4. They aren't outbidding anyone next year for what SP will be out there. They didn't outbid anyone this year, when LA and NYY were sitting out the process. They've never done it, they probably never will.

 

So, sure, we'd all rather have an ACE type. But, since they are very unlikely to do that, I'd be good with Lynn on a three year deal.

 

I get it, but I think everyone is over-estimating the likelyhood that either Lynn or Cobb aren't going to Nolasco all over themselves. Both achieved moderate success with the only clubs they've ever know despite the fact that all indicators and peripheral stats say that they are just as close to imploding as they are to being useful. I don't need more sinkerballers with long leashes on long term deals, these guys aren't that good.

 

Signing Lynn or Cobb just seems like signing someone just for the sake of signing someone. I'd like to trade for a better pitcher, and if that's not happening, I'd rather bide my time. These two aren't the answer.

[Sssuperdave]

 

I don't understand the worries people have about giving up a 2nd/3rd round pick to sign Lynn.  I would take a proven starting pitcher any day over a 2nd round pick.  I would say a 2nd round picks chances of pitching in the Majors are probably a ~70%, and the chances they are a good starter would be even less.  Take the sure thing when you are within your window of contention.

 

Actually the odds are even worse than that. According to Baseball Reference, there were 169 pitchers drafted in the 2nd round from 2000 through 2010, and only 84 of them have pitched in the majors, which is 49.7%. It gets worse from there though.  Only 51 have a positive WAR (30%), and only 21 have a WAR >5 (12.4%). 

 

Of course, every once in a while you strike gold. Included in those 21 > 5 WAR is Jordan Zimmerman, Yovani Gallardo, Jon Lester, and Dan Haren.

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I get it, but I think everyone is over-estimating the likelyhood that either Lynn or Cobb aren't going to Nolasco all over themselves.

I don't know about that -- Nolasco was thoroughly mediocre prior to Minnesota, career 94 ERA+ and coming off his second-best season ever at 101 ERA+, and 5 years removed from his best season.

 

Same age, Lance Lynn is a career 114 ERA+ and coming off a 124 (albeit heavily BABIP infuenced). Cobb is a career 111 ERA+ and coming of a 113.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Don’t sign anyone.
Go get Archer.

Sano, etc for him. Get it done.

It was already reported that Tampa wasn't interested in a Sano-for-Archer swap.

[nicksaviking]

 

I don't know about that -- Nolasco was thoroughly mediocre prior to Minnesota, career 94 ERA+ and coming off his second-best season ever at 101 ERA+, and 5 years removed from his best season.

 

Same age, Lance Lynn is a career 114 ERA+ and coming off a 124 (albeit heavily BABIP infuenced). Cobb is a career 111 ERA+ and coming of a 113.

 

No argument, both look better than Nolasco, but FIP is much less kind to Lynn. And I don't think I can stomach another sub 7 K/9 pitcher like Cobb. 

 

If something happens I'll cheer for them and wish for the best, I know others don't like the same things from baseball that I do, I've been dying for more strikeouts from Twins pitchers for a decade and these guys look to make the team go further in the wrong direction. Significantly more groud balls for Sano, Polanco and Dozier isn't my preferred choice. It seemed like they finally got Gibson to see the light at the end of last year and it just felt like such a victory, to my (surely unreasonable) anti-sinker brain these guys just seem like two steps back.

[bobs]

A Lynn signing would make Gibson the likely #5.  While I really like that depth in the rotation, I wonder if it's a concern that it would be all RHP when Erv is back.  Hardest place at Target Field to hit a HR is right-center...so maybe the FO is intentionally loading up on RH starters?

[TheLeviathan]

The Nolasco fears are a little less so for Cobb.  He has demonstrated success in the AL, for whatever it's worth after his injury.

[nicksaviking]

 

The Nolasco fears are a little less so for Cobb.  He has demonstrated success in the AL, for whatever it's worth after his injury.

 

Agreed. I'm not a fan of his style of pitching but I'd be more confident in him than Lynn when it comes to the possibility of completely getting derailed due to performance.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

No argument, both look better than Nolasco, but FIP is much less kind to Lynn. And I don't think I can stomach another sub 7 K/9 pitcher like Cobb. 

 

If something happens I'll cheer for them and wish for the best, I know others don't like the same things from baseball that I do, I've been dying for more strikeouts from Twins pitchers for a decade and these guys look to make the team go further in the wrong direction. Significantly more groud balls for Sano, Polanco and Dozier isn't my preferred choice. It seemed like they finally got Gibson to see the light at the end of last year and it just felt like such a victory, to my (surely unreasonable) anti-sinker brain these guys just seem like two steps back.

Small sample, but Cobb's K% was improving late last season, more in line with his 2013-2014 seasons which were above league average in that regard. Lynn had the reverse -- he started strong in K% in 2017 and faded. Could be the post-TJ surgery effects for both? I'm not smart enough to parse PITCHf/x for that kind of stuff!

 

They certainly aren't Darvish, but they may not be sub-7 K/9 types going forward either.

[twinscowboysbulls]

It was already reported that Tampa wasn't interested in a Sano-for-Archer swap.

I’m saying Sano +

[Cornholio]

I prefer Lynn over Cobb, as Cobb has had both the TOS and TJ surgeries and had a season high of 179 IP. Granted, Cobb has probably had the best post-TOS career of anybody in MLB, but the shelf-life of TOS recipients is generally short. As in I can’t think of anyone who had the surgery before Cobb that is still active. Lynn is now Two years removed from TJ and has been a reliable source of innings throughout his career.

[Tomj14]

 

It was already reported that Tampa wasn't interested in a Sano-for-Archer swap.

Because they are looking for prospects instead of a major leaguer?  or maybe because they know they can't meet his FA price?

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I’m saying Sano +

The plus might have to be pretty significant, at this point.

[nicksaviking]

 

Small sample, but Cobb's K% was improving late last season, more in line with his 2013-2014 seasons which were above league average in that regard. Lynn had the reverse -- he started strong in K% in 2017 and faded. Could be the post-TJ surgery effects for both? I'm not smart enough to parse PITCHf/x for that kind of stuff!

 

They certainly aren't Darvish, but they may not be sub-7 K/9 types going forward either.

 

That's promising, but Cobb doesn't even throw a four seamer anymore. It's basically just lots and lots of sinker plus a curve. He has a splitter but the usage of that drastically reduced after he came back from TJ surgery. 

[Guest]

As an FYI, Nolasco had better K/9 and BB/9 rates and swinging strike % the season before joining the Twins than Cobb or Lynn had last year.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

As an FYI, Nolasco had better K/9 and BB/9 rates and swinging strike % the season before joining the Twins than Cobb or Lynn had last year.

Right, but Nolasco wasn't coming off of TJ surgery either. Could be they are still bad bets, but it may not be quite as simple as some stats suggest.

[Taildragger8791]

 

Because they are looking for prospects instead of a major leaguer?  or maybe because they know they can't meet his FA price?

 

Probably because they're already shedding salary and they know Sano is only a year away from starting to demand significant raises year over year. And he'll probably be a challenge to negotiate with for a small to mid-market franchise. Especially if he values himself at a Machado/Harper/Trout/Cabrera level instead of as the two/three true outcomes DH slugger he's becoming.

[Guest]

Right, but Nolasco wasn't coming off of TJ surgery either. Could be they are still bad bets, but it may not be quite as simple as some stats suggest.

Good point; not sure it’s necessarily an advantage for Cobb/Lynn, particularly if they are still seeking the $$ mentioned earlier this winter. If they get closer to the $$ Jaime Garcia took with Toronto, then they seem more appealing.

[nicksaviking]

 

Good point; not sure it’s necessarily an advantage for Cobb/Lynn, particularly if they are still seeking the $$ mentioned earlier this winter. If they get closer to the $$ Jaime Garcia took with Toronto, then they seem more appealing.

 

Or the years. As much as I'd prefer not to chase these guys, if it ended up being a 1 year deal that's fine by me. I'd sign anyone to a 1 year deal; pulling the plug on flop or dumping him for peanuts is rarely an issue on a contract of that length.

 

Sorry Mr. Palmeiro, please remain seated, that was not directed at you.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Good point; not sure it’s necessarily an advantage for Cobb/Lynn, particularly if they are still seeking the $$ mentioned earlier this winter. If they get closer to the $$ Jaime Garcia took with Toronto, then they seem more appealing.

I'd pay double for Cobb or Lynn without thinking about it twice (double Garcia's contract would be $16m).

[Oxtung]

I'd be interested in knowing what people think the odds are that Cobb or Lynn regain their pre-TJ surgery form. If one believes Cobb has a 75% chance of regaining his feel for his splitter then taking a 3 year gamble makes quite a bit more sense than if you think it's a 25% chance, for instance. For those advocating signing either of these pitchers to a 3+ year contract what are your expectations?

[nicksaviking]

Le Velle was on Kfan and says he thinks John Heyman was just throwing stuff out there. He doesn't think there's much connection. La Velle seemed to think the Twins would either make a significant trade for the top of the rotation or do nothing else. He said the team was comfortable letting Sanchez, Mejia, Slegers and Hughes fight it out until better options presented themselves.

[Minfidel]

 

Completely on board with 1 year, 1 year with option or 3 year deal. (Like each idea for different, unimportant reasons). I would guess the 1 year with an option is the least likely, but this makes too much sense not to peruse. I prefer Lynn over Cobb and detailed why in another thread, so will skip all of that.

I fully expect Santana to be back 100%. But what if his rehab and build up takes longer than hoped? Not sure I buy this, and forgive me for my buy-in optimism, but what if Gibson's second half was luck/illusion? Sanchez could be a great story, but really, this a flier signing. Hughes is getting paid for the next 2 season's and would be an even better story, but is an internal flier. The kids just aren't ready yet, as impatient as we all are for them to be, with the exception of Slegers who just might be a decent back end starter.

This is not to be a downer or pooh-pooh the season before it begins! It's simply reality that there is room to add another high quality arm. Isn't the point to have the best over all team...offensivly, defensively and pitching...that you can?

What is the absolute worst possible outcome? Santana comes back strong, Berrios keeps developing, you've added 2 quality ML arms via trade and FA, and you have Mejia, Gibson, Hughes and Sanchez fighting for the last spot or two in the rotation with the kids, (though Slegers could compete as well), gaining experience and providing experience at Rochester. And May could also make a difference at some point. So maybe you end up with someone like Gibson you could move in a deal for a helpful piece or a decent prospect?

This makes way too much sense not to persue!

I like it if it happens. You look at all these mid-rotation guys as chips for building the team. With Santana out you start with Berrios and Odorizzi at the top of the rotation and follow with Lynn, Gibson and Mieja (or Hughes or Sanchez should they have anything). If even one of the last three can do the job, you then have Santana coming back and some legit options in the minors...and some credible arms that can be traded (gotta think any Lynn contract at this point wouldn't be too big to trade). Let teams come to you.

[DaveW]

 

Le Velle was on Kfan and says he thinks John Heyman was just throwing stuff out there. He doesn't think there's much connection. La Velle seemed to think the Twins would either make a significant trade for the top of the rotation or do nothing else. He said the team was comfortable letting Sanchez, Mejia, Slegers and Hughes fight it out until better options presented themselves.

I like LaVelle, but IMO that guy never really breaks any news.

I trust a guy like Heyman (who has sources ALL over baseball because he covers it nationally) then a guy like LaVelle who really only covers one team (not saying he doesn't have sources elsewhere) but it does seem like he more or less just says whatever the Twins front office 'feeds' him.

I don't see Tampa trading Archer this off-season unless they are blown away, and I don't think the Twins should offer up Sano+ Kepler+Berrios for him.

[Otto von Ballpark]

.

I trust a guy like Heyman (who has sources ALL over baseball because he covers it nationally) then a guy like LaVelle who really only covers one team (not saying he doesn't have sources elsewhere) but it does seem like he more or less just says whatever the Twins front office 'feeds' him.

Heyman is also getting fed, by agents. I wouldn't universally trust him over LaVelle, or vice versa, but rather evaluate on a case-by-case basis -- and in this case, I would be rather surprised if the Twins got aggressive about adding another MLB FA pitcher, at this point.