Astros Expected to Acquire Gerrit Cole

[dbminn]

Four players in return. None of the top three Astros prospects.

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/01/astros-to-acquire-gerrit-cole-2.html

 

Astros likely out of the running for Darvish.

[dbminn]

Joe Musgrove and Colin Moran are the key players going to the Pirates.

[nytwinsfan]

Seems like a great deal for the Astros to me. Clear winners.

[sftwinsfan]

Not sure what the Pirates are doing, this seems to be the offseason of small markets just handing off their best talent to elite teams for low returns.  Looking like beating the Yankees and Astros next season is getting harder and harder.  If I'm the Pirates for that return I would have rolled the dice that Cole pitched well in the 1st half then unloaded him.  

[nicksaviking]

Seems like a quantity over quality move for Pittsburgh.

 

I've been the low man on Cole but this doesn't look too painful for Houston. What's this equate to in Twins terms? Kepler, Mejia, Duffey and Wade?

[drjim]

Seems like a quantity over quality move for Pittsburgh.

 

I've been the low man on Cole but this doesn't look too painful for Houston. What's this equate to in Twins terms? Kepler, Mejia, Duffey and Wade?

Probably about right, but Pitt needed a 3b more than an of, and the pitchers are not quite as good.

 

For the Astros, seems like mostly spare parts, great move for them.

[darin617]

 

Seems like a quantity over quality move for Pittsburgh.

I've been the low man on Cole but this doesn't look too painful for Houston. What's this equate to in Twins terms? Kepler, Mejia, Duffey and Wade?

Still puzzled how people think Mejia has much if any trade value. Same goes for Duffey. Not much more than 5th starters at best.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Seems like a quantity over quality move for Pittsburgh.

I've been the low man on Cole but this doesn't look too painful for Houston. What's this equate to in Twins terms? Kepler, Mejia, Duffey and Wade?

I'm not a prospect guy, but I don't think Kepler belongs in this comparison.

 

I would guess Gordon and Moran might be a wash (premium position vs. intriguing bat), and Musgrove approximately one of our better two AA starters.

 

Or as reported in December: Gordon, Granite and Jay

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Houston goes from a 100-loss team to World Series champion able to trade away decent young players they didn't even need, all in a span of 4-5 seasons. Hopefully in a couple years the Twins will be in the same position.

[KirbyDome89]

 

I'm not a prospect guy, but I don't think Kepler belongs in this comparison.

I would guess Gordon and Moran might be a wash (premium position vs. intriguing bat), and Musgrove approximately one of our better two AA starters.

Or as reported in December: Gordon, Granite and Jay

It makes me hopeful the Twins are in on another pitcher if they were indeed willing to pass up that offer for Cole. 

[bluechipper]

That is an awful return for the Pirates. How is Colin Moran is the headliner for Gerrit Cole?

 

Imagine how much worse this trade would look last offseason with those prospect hauls the White Sox got.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Seems like a quantity over quality move for Pittsburgh.

 

I've been the low man on Cole but this doesn't look too painful for Houston. What's this equate to in Twins terms? Kepler, Mejia, Duffey and Wade?

Not sure if those are great comparables, or at least the mix is off. I like Kepler, but he is a corner outfielder who has been stuck on 96 OPS+ thus far in MLB, and he is only a year away from arbitration. Duffey is likewise close to arb, and started out well as a SP and then as a RP, but faded in both roles as one might expect given his modest pedigree. He is also 27 years old and threw only 71 innings last year, so a quick return to starting is doubtful. Mejia could be useful, but has almost zero upside potential either as a starter or reliever.

 

The Astros guys are not elite, of course, but there is definitely a different mix that could be preferable. Musgrove hasn't yet faltered as a reliever and could easily make another attempt at starting right away (he threw 122 IP in 2018). Feliz has struggled overall, but 13 K/9 in MLB suggests he has some tools. Moran has 136 and 133 wRC+ marks in 2 of his last 3 minor league seasons, covering AA/AAA, and plays 3B. And only Feliz is as close to arb as Kepler/Duffey.

[markos]

 

Still puzzled how people think Mejia has much if any trade value. Same goes for Duffey. Not much more than 5th starters at best.

I think Mejia has a fair amount of trade value. He just finished his rookie season with a league-average ERA, and did a good job of missing bats both inside and outside the strike zone. Obviously, he has to tighten up his control in order to become a mid-rotation starter, but every year teams have to hand out multi-million dollar deals to veteran pitchers who have less upside than Mejia. Having him on the roster for the next six seasons for cheap is valuable. Personally, I have him as one of my top-10 assets.

[markos]

I really don't like this trade for the Pirates, but it is clear that the Twins couldn't provide what they were looking for. They wanted big league ready players, and right now the Twins don't have a surplus of players like that. Granite is probably the only one. 

 

On a related note, has the "trade in a dollar for 4 quarters to try to extend a window of contention" plan worked for any small-market team yet? The Rays tried really hard (trading Shields, Zobrist, Price, et al), but they haven't had a winning season since 2013. It certainly looks like the Pirates are trying hard to win 75-80 games a year.

[bird]

 

Seems like a quantity over quality move for Pittsburgh.

I've been the low man on Cole but this doesn't look too painful for Houston. What's this equate to in Twins terms? Kepler, Mejia, Duffey and Wade?

 

Joe Musgove is a #5 starter. Feliz is an unremarkable reliever. I'm not sure you'd trade Mejia and Duffey even up, but probably good comps. Morin was the Astro's #5 prospect according to him, a B grade, so probably quite a ways below the likes of Gordon, Javier, and Rooker because of a lower ceiling. Sickles thinks Morin's ceiling is as "a decent regular" but more likely "an excellent role player" as a 3B-1B-OF. Martin gets a B- grade from Sickles, who projects him as a 4th OF. Comps might be Granite or Wade.

 

This looks on paper to be a great trade for the Astros.

[AZTwin]

Former twin, Vielma got DFA after this trade for the 4th time in his young career

[old nurse]

 

I really don't like this trade for the Pirates, but it is clear that the Twins couldn't provide what they were looking for. They wanted big league ready players, and right now the Twins don't have a surplus of players like that. Granite is probably the only one. 

 

On a related note, has the "trade in a dollar for 4 quarters to try to extend a window of contention" plan worked for any small-market team yet? The Rays tried really hard (trading Shields, Zobrist, Price, et al), but they haven't had a winning season since 2013. It certainly looks like the Pirates are trying hard to win 75-80 games a year.

4 quarters for a dollar is about trying to get something for your dollar before it turns into nothing, not about staying in contention.

[Mike Sixel]

Astros are killing it. They are going to be tough to beat.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I think Mejia has a fair amount of trade value. He just finished his rookie season with a league-average ERA, and did a good job of missing bats both inside and outside the strike zone. Obviously, he has to tighten up his control in order to become a mid-rotation starter, but every year teams have to hand out multi-million dollar deals to veteran pitchers who have less upside than Mejia. Having him on the roster for the next six seasons for cheap is valuable. Personally, I have him as one of my top-10 assets.

Sure, if you really think he's a league average starter for the next 6 years. But 21 starts (at less than 5 IP each) of league average ERA isn't really strong evidence of that. I wouldn't say he's valueless, of course, but keep in mind not much has changed about him or his profile/performance since he was traded straight up for Eduardo Nunez a year ago. That was a good trade for the Twins, but I'm not seeing much to suggest he could carry much value in a major trade right now.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I really don't like this trade for the Pirates, but it is clear that the Twins couldn't provide what they were looking for. They wanted big league ready players, and right now the Twins don't have a surplus of players like that. Granite is probably the only one.

 

On a related note, has the "trade in a dollar for 4 quarters to try to extend a window of contention" plan worked for any small-market team yet? The Rays tried really hard (trading Shields, Zobrist, Price, et al), but they haven't had a winning season since 2013. It certainly looks like the Pirates are trying hard to win 75-80 games a year.

You know, Cole is a free agent in 2 years, has made it clear he is not signing an extension in Pittsburgh, FA compensation rules have been watered down, and Cole just posted a 101 ERA+ (and 4 of his 5 career seasons are within 10% of that mark). That doesn't necessarily mean this is a good trade, but a lot of people seem to judging it on Cole's reputation rather than his on-field contributions. And ignoring the fact that Pittsburgh was running out of time to hope those two things came into better alignment in a meaningful way.

[drjim]

 

You know, Cole is a free agent in 2 years, has made it clear he is not signing an extension in Pittsburgh, FA compensation rules have been watered down, and Cole just posted a 101 ERA+ (and 4 of his 5 career seasons are within 10% of that mark). That doesn't necessarily mean this is a good trade, but a lot of people seem to judging it on Cole's reputation rather than his on-field contributions. And ignoring the fact that Pittsburgh was running out of time to hope those two things came into better alignment in a meaningful way.

 

This is a really good point, Cole might not be much more than a league average starter, which is still quite valuable at those salaries, but not a difference maker. It seems they could have gotten less pieces, but one better piece from the Yankees, I wonder if that would have been a better way to go.

 

Overall just a strange market, with very few teams legitimately trying to buy. I wonder if this is the new way or just kind of a fluke of the competitive cycle. I suppose it is "smarter" but I don't know if it is better.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

I am not high on Mejia, but I guess I am higher on Musgrove than others. I think Pittsburgh has Musgrove penned into a rotation spot for 2018. Considering Pittsburgh was highly motivated to move Cole ASAP, it was not an awful deal, even though some baseball people are calling it that. I think the Twins could have worked something out close to Gordon/Grante/Jay, if not those specific pieces, something close. 

 

The Twins need to sign Darvish so that their complete uninterested in making a deal for Cole does not leave a bad taste in my mouth

[drjim]

 

I am not high on Mejia, but I guess I am higher on Musgrove than others. I think Pittsburgh has Musgrove penned into a rotation spot for 2018. Considering Pittsburgh was highly motivated to move Cole ASAP, it was not an awful deal, even though some baseball people are calling it that. I think the Twins could have worked something out close to Gordon/Grante/Jay, if not those specific pieces, something close. 

 

The Twins need to sign Darvish so that their complete uninterested in making a deal for Cole does not leave a bad taste in my mouth

 

I would much rather the Twins sign a free agent than make that trade (and I don't think that is quite enough either). The Twins are almost certainly going to get one of the main 4 free agent pitchers sitting out there, just need Darvish to make a decision so the dominoes can fall.

 

While Cole will have the much better contract, I don't think it's a sure thing he's a better player the next couple of year.

[rghrbek]

Well, with the Yankees missing out on Cole, does that make them go harder after Darvish or Archer?  

 

I wouldn't mind this weird weird market to depress the trade value for Archer slightly...(I know, I know wishful thinking).

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

 

I would much rather the Twins sign a free agent than make that trade (and I don't think that is quite enough either). The Twins are almost certainly going to get one of the main 4 free agent pitchers sitting out there, just need Darvish to make a decision so the dominoes can fall.

 

While Cole will have the much better contract, I don't think it's a sure thing he's a better player the next couple of year.

That is a very fair opinion, and I think chances are good the Twins do sign Darvish (Cobb would be my next pref)

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

 

Well, with the Yankees missing out on Cole, does that make them go harder after Darvish or Archer?  

 

I wouldn't mind this weird weird market to depress the trade value for Archer slightly...(I know, I know wishful thinking).

To your first point, no, I don't think so. But they are the Yankees so you never know.

 

[cmoss84]

Didn't the Yankees give Darvish a 48 hour window to sign their offer (one that expired by now)?

[Vanimal46]

Verlander / Keuchel / Cole / McCullers / Peacock / McHugh / Morton

 

That's a hell of a rotation. Don't want to see that in the playoffs. 

[nytwinsfan]

 

To your first point, no, I don't think so. But they are the Yankees so you never know.

 

Darvish personally (on twitter) shot that down.

[ashbury]

Verlander / Keuchel / Cole / McCullers / Peacock / McHugh / Morton

 

That's a hell of a rotation. Don't want to see that in the playoffs. 

We won't, unless we reach the ALCS. In the Divisional Series, it's only 5 games.