Gallup

[TheLeviathan]

Any hot takes?http://content.gallup.com/origin/gallupinc/GallupSpaces/Production/Cms/POLL/kothfiig8u20hhbxavevjg.png

 

I'm starting to worry that baseball is pricing itself out of many families and new fans.  Just from my own anecdotal experience, kids care far less about baseball than I remember caring about it.

[Thrylos]

Gotta see methodology and what leagues they are included before can make a half way try for an intelligent comment towards this

[TheLeviathan]

Straight from gallup.  

[Thrylos]

"Results for this Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted Dec. 4-11, 2017, with a random sample of 1,049 adults, aged 18 and older, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia."

 

SSS

 

 

[mikelink45]

I relate to this.  I have a baseball card collection I hoped would go to my grandchildren.  My grandchildren hardly know how baseball is played.  They do not care.  Times are changing and in ways that worry me since baseball has always been my favorite sport - by a large measure.  Now I look at all those cards and I do not know what to do with them.

[Brandon Warne]

"Results for this Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted Dec. 4-11, 2017, with a random sample of 1,049 adults, aged 18 and older, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia."

 

SSS

 

That's not a small sample size on a poll like this. Near as I can tell, this is a margin of error of about 4 percent.

[theBOMisthebomb]

Baseball still ranks 1st or 2nd in the US as far as number of youth participant. This recent Washington Post article has baseball particiation just slightly behind basketball: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/recruiting-insider/wp/2017/09/06/youth-sports-study-declining-participation-rising-costs-and-unqualified-coaches/?utm_term=.3330e0c44016

 

Baseball is one of the things that makes this country great and I believe that it will always be popular and have a special place in the culture. We need to trust that the special game of baseball will continue to thrive.

 

Yes, there is a lot of work to be done to ensure baseball stays healthy. Yes, there is much entertainment competition among the young people and it is difficult to get them interested in a 'slow' sport such as baseball when they are used to staring at a flashing screen providing instant entertainment all day.

 

As far as pricing families out of the market. I don't think baseball is doing it any more than any other of the major sports. With the abundance of baseball games and deals for the consumer willing to do even a minimal amount of research, there are plenty of deals to be had. The extra value Twins games for the 2017 season in the family section were $10 and included a hot dog and soda. Do we remember the 33 games for $99 deal the Twins had at the start of 2017?

 

Baseball will survive and thrive.

[TheLeviathan]

 

As far as pricing families out of the market. I don't think baseball is doing it any more than any other of the major sports. With the abundance of baseball games and deals for the consumer willing to do even a minimal amount of research, there are plenty of deals to be had. The extra value Twins games for the 2017 season in the family section were $10 and included a hot dog and soda. Do we remember the 33 games for $99 deal the Twins had at the start of 2017?

 

That's true, but that doesn't mean the ballpark experience is geared that way.  It's geared towards 25-35 year olds with money to spend.  From a short term business model it makes sense, not so much from a long term model.

 

Baseball lost some of it's mystique in bro-ing out.  I guess that's just my sense, none of the kids I work with could give a rip about the local baseball team.

[ashbury]

 

The Gallup poll cited here measures something, but probably not anything relevant to baseball's survival. Football is a once-a-week spectacle during its season, baseball is an everyday heartbeat during its. The troubled Tampa Bay Rays franchise attracted more home attendance in 2017 than did the NFL-leading Cowboys. You can use that as an alternative measure of how the sports touch people's lives.

 

NFL football is priced out of the reach of most families even moreso than baseball, and no one is predicting the sport's imminent doom. College football is not as far out of sight financially, but again many minor league baseball teams have season attendance figures on a par with top college football.

 

Moreover, football would have trouble selling out stadiums if games were played every day - in part because the rules of football would have to be drastically changed to enable that kind of frequency, thus decreasing the level of spectacle to that of, say, soccer (or maybe less, since futbol players don't play every day either).

 

Baseball can coexist, as apples do with oranges. I don't suggest complacency, particularly at the college and high school levels, but high major league ticket prices are a sign of robustness, not doom. At least in the major markets, fans are waving fistfuls of dollars outbidding each other for tickets - cue the other Philip J Fry meme.

[bird]

These are just my own theories based mostly on my own observations. Youth participation team sports is declining, and I think costs are a huge part of it, but it also probably has a whole lot to do with kids' choices to pursue non-sports entertainment options like gaming, etc. I personally believe we have a worsening cultural problem related to the whole "have and have not" polarity. Affordability is problematic for many, we know that.

 

Spectator sports are pricing MOST families out of the market, and have for many years. People say that this is not problematic, citing the fact that game attendance is still robust. I don't know the data points, but I don't need them to know that an average family of four in the City of St. Paul, for example, can't casually flip a coin and decide to scoot out to Target Field for a $125 night four times a season. The Vikings play 8 or so games in front of the same season ticket holders, as do the Timberwolves and Wild with what, 40 games? 

 

I personally have been saddened for half of my long adult life as I have witnessed how greed has won the fight. As long as there's an adequate supply of fans willing to pony up, why be concerned about the people who no longer are part of the demand? Who cares about them? And if the remaining demand will cough up even more, great. I've long thought, however, that at some point, professional sports hits a clearing price and we see an accident or three and a rapid deflation of owner profits, player salaries, agent proliferation, and all the cheating and scrambling for even more.

 

Buckwalter purportedly asked Chris Davis, "How much is enough?", and I sure wish all parties, owners, players, agents, advertisers, and maybe more than any of those, the fans, would ask the same question.

 

I very much miss going to professional baseball games. I can't do it in good conscience anymore, but also don't pass judgment on those who can. I just hope for more awareness about what a privilege it is to be part of the demand.

[theBOMisthebomb]

That's true, but that doesn't mean the ballpark experience is geared that way.  It's geared towards 25-35 year olds with money to spend.  From a short term business model it makes sense, not so much from a long term model.

 

Baseball lost some of it's mystique in bro-ing out.  I guess that's just my sense, none of the kids I work with could give a rip about the local baseball team.

I am with you that the ballpark experience at Target Field is not geared toward families or youth. They finally put a little play area out in left field last year. Other than that, there is really nothing for families. On the other hand, there are plenty of places to hang out and drink overpriced craft beer and not pay attention to the game. As far as the millenials not caring about MLB or the Twins, I have experienced that as well in the workplace. Sometimes I feel like an absolute dinosaur since I like rock and roll and baseball.

[theBOMisthebomb]

These are just my own theories based mostly on my own observations. Youth participation team sports is declining, and I think costs are a huge part of it, but it also probably has a whole lot to do with kids' choices to pursue non-sports entertainment options like gaming, etc. I personally believe we have a worsening cultural problem related to the whole "have and have not" polarity. Affordability is problematic for many, we know that.

 

Spectator sports are pricing MOST families out of the market, and have for many years. People say that this is not problematic, citing the fact that game attendance is still robust. I don't know the data points, but I don't need them to know that an average family of four in the City of St. Paul, for example, can't casually flip a coin and decide to scoot out to Target Field for a $125 night four times a season. The Vikings play 8 or so games in front of the same season ticket holders, as do the Timberwolves and Wild with what, 40 games? 

 

I personally have been saddened for half of my long adult life as I have witnessed how greed has won the fight. As long as there's an adequate supply of fans willing to pony up, why be concerned about the people who no longer are part of the demand? Who cares about them? And if the remaining demand will cough up even more, great. I've long thought, however, that at some point, professional sports hits a clearing price and we see an accident or three and a rapid deflation of owner profits, player salaries, agent proliferation, and all the cheating and scrambling for even more.

 

Buckwalter purportedly asked Chris Davis, "How much is enough?", and I sure wish all parties, owners, players, agents, advertisers, and maybe more than any of those, the fans, would ask the same question.

 le

I very much miss going to professional baseball games. I can't do it in good conscience anymore, but also don't pass judgment on those who can. I just hope for more awareness about what a privilege it is to be part of the demand.

Well, if you are willing to sit in the upper deck then it is more affordable. Or, go early in the season when it is colder and ticket prices are cheaper. Last season, the extra value games were about $10 each. You can bring your own food into Target Field and take the train so you could get a family of four taken care of for about $50 total, or about the same cost as going to a movie. The game is propped up by TV money and until that dries up I don't see your issues getting resolved. There are other options such as stubhub.com and even scalpers where you can score cheap tickets. I have scored $5 tickets from scalpers in the lower level. No, you will not have prime seats or sit in a suite following these cheaper options, although you will probably get in the gate for a small amount of money.

[TheLeviathan]

For the record, I don't think this means baseball is dying off or anything.  But it may be problematic in the long term.  

 

Baseball has lost some of it's magic for kids, for whatever reason.  (though I think bird hate on quite a few good possibilities)

[Seth Stohs]

 

"Results for this Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted Dec. 4-11, 2017, with a random sample of 1,049 adults, aged 18 and older, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia."

 

SSS

 

It's not a huge sample, but it's fair... I do wonder if they conducted that same sample size on June 4 instead of December 4 if it would give different results. 

[ashbury]

It's not a huge sample, but it's fair... I do wonder if they conducted that same sample size on June 4 instead of December 4 if it would give different results. 

Watch ESPN on June 4 and see if that gives you an idea. The "N" in ESPN stands for "NFL" and "NCAA Football" simultaneously. And they don't program the way they do just to be contrary. There's an audience for football 17 months a year.

[Brandon Warne]

 

It's not a huge sample, but it's fair... I do wonder if they conducted that same sample size on June 4 instead of December 4 if it would give different results. 

 

It actually is a huge sample. This is how polls work.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

 

I relate to this.  I have a baseball card collection I hoped would go to my grandchildren.  My grandchildren hardly know how baseball is played.  They do not care.  Times are changing and in ways that worry me since baseball has always been my favorite sport - by a large measure.  Now I look at all those cards and I do not know what to do with them.

My address is PO Box 432, Statesville NC 28687

[Monkeypaws]

The next recession is gonna put those ticket prices in pretty rarified air. Franchises like Oakland, San Diego, Philly, White Sox, Miami and Tampa Bay gonna be toast.

[Vanimal46]

Very interesting discussion so far. It's interesting that every sport declined in popularity over the last 4-5 years... To touch on a couple more things besides what's already been discussed for the decline in baseball:

 

Cord cutting/Commercials: Lots of people have cut out cable in their bills, and don't have access to live sports. Especially baseball when the playoffs are broadcasted on FS1 and TBS. Kids today are used to a Netflix experience with no ads. Live sports are stuffed full of commercial breaks, and can be a grind to sit through.

 

Marketing: The other sports are dominating baseball in this department. Basketball IMO markets their stars the best, where even people like me that doesn't watch the sport can still name 4-5 stars. Baseball has fun stars too! Trout, Correa, Lindor, etc. should be marketed just as much.

[Tom Froemming]

Forbes: MLB Sets Record For Revenues In 2017, Increasing More Than $500 Million Since 2015

 

Final paragraph: "In 1992, when Bud Selig took over as commissioner of MLB, league revenues were $1.2 billion. When accounting for inflation, revenues for the league have grown 325% in the 25 years since, or approx. 13% annually and over $500 million in the last two years."

 

I think baseball is doing just fine ...

[TheLeviathan]

Financially, yes it is.  But I can't imagine that can sustain a diminishing interest level among future fans.

 

Or maybe baseball will continue to bro-out and milk 28 year olds for $24 craft beers.  It's certainly working right now.

[KirbyDome89]

 

Cord cutting/Commercials: Lots of people have cut out cable in their bills, and don't have access to live sports. Especially baseball when the playoffs are broadcasted on FS1 and TBS. Kids today are used to a Netflix experience with no ads. Live sports are stuffed full of commercial breaks, and can be a grind to sit through.

Spot on. None of my friends, myself included, have cable subscriptions. Streaming (pirating), going to the bar, or if I'm in the garage, listening to the radio all suffice. I would also add that the MLB blackout policy is ridiculous which forces a lot of people into huge cable bills if they want to watch their team (at least legally....)

[KirbyDome89]

 

Financially, yes it is.  But I can't imagine that can sustain a diminishing interest level among future fans.

 

Or maybe baseball will continue to bro-out and milk 28 year olds for $24 craft beers.  It's certainly working right now.

I agree, the tv money has to have viewership propping it up. If people aren't interested, the networks aren't going to continue to pay massive amounts for rights to broadcast the games. 

 

I think there are a lot of factors involved in baseball viewership declining, and many have already been touched on. To add to those, it's easier to get a pickup game of basketball or touch football together than it is to field a baseball game. I'm also surprised at how few public batting cages I see. Equipment is essential, but most importantly, kids need to have access.  

 

Just curious, but what would you define as a bro-out? I'm worried that my age and love for all kinds of beer puts me at risk.

[nclahammer]

 

Baseball still ranks 1st or 2nd in the US as far as number of youth participant. This recent Washington Post article has baseball particiation just slightly behind basketball: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/recruiting-insider/wp/2017/09/06/youth-sports-study-declining-participation-rising-costs-and-unqualified-coaches/?utm_term=.3330e0c44016

Baseball is one of the things that makes this country great and I believe that it will always be popular and have a special place in the culture. We need to trust that the special game of baseball will continue to thrive.

Yes, there is a lot of work to be done to ensure baseball stays healthy. Yes, there is much entertainment competition among the young people and it is difficult to get them interested in a 'slow' sport such as baseball when they are used to staring at a flashing screen providing instant entertainment all day.

As far as pricing families out of the market. I don't think baseball is doing it any more than any other of the major sports. With the abundance of baseball games and deals for the consumer willing to do even a minimal amount of research, there are plenty of deals to be had. The extra value Twins games for the 2017 season in the family section were $10 and included a hot dog and soda. Do we remember the 33 games for $99 deal the Twins had at the start of 2017?

Baseball will survive and thrive.

Great points.  I have a 20 game season ticket package with two $13 tickets per game, what I consider a good deal.  The Sweet Spot card saves me 10% on my food and I take each of my daughters to their own Sunday Kid's Day game  (they get free autographs & run the bases) & date night with my wife, outings with friends.  If the same survey were conducted in May, I would predicts baseball would easily be in double-digits.  Take me out to the ballgame.

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

I don't think this survey is evidence of diminishing interest overall. Yes, it is the #1 favorite sport among fewer people now, but if more attention is paid to sports overall (a likely proposition), baseball likely garners equal or greater attention as someone's #2 or even #3 today than it could have among many "#1 fans" from years ago.

 

Put another way, seeing a distribution of #1 favorite sports tells us very little -- I'd say, next to nothing -- about overall interest levels, given the abundance of extra factors and how those factors have changed dramatically over time.

[ashbury]

I don't think this survey is evidence of diminishing interest overall. Yes, it is the #1 favorite sport among fewer people now, but if more attention is paid to sports overall (a likely proposition), baseball likely garners equal or greater attention as someone's #2 or even #3 today than it could have among many "#1 fans" from years ago.

 

Put another way, seeing a distribution of #1 favorite sports tells us very little -- I'd say, next to nothing -- about overall interest levels, given the abundance of extra factors and how those factors have changed dramatically over time.

Exactly so. The Gallup poll, and the graph of past polls, undoubtedly conveys information. But not of the sort that has to do with "pricing", the theme of the OP here. And not of anything very new, either, since the inflection point with respect to football was back in the 1960s.

 

Steps that Baseball (as an entity) might take that would improve the numbers in this graph, such as converting to a once-a-week spectacle with only ace pitchers pitching, could well be harmful to the sport overall. Said another way, there are probably several more-pertinent questions that Gallup could have asked, than the one they did. But those would probably require focus groups, and not a simple one-answer question - those have doubtless been performed again and again, but are less newsworthy.

[mikelink45]

 

My address is PO Box 432, Statesville NC 28687

I would love to just send them to someone who would value them, but in my social security years I would like to get something back for them.  Lots of HOF rookie cards like Ripken, Griffey, etc and notebooks and boxes of cards.  Lots of memories in those cards, but I will be moving them in the next few years.  My problem is that I have purchased them, enjoyed them, but never sold any.

[TheLeviathan]

 

I don't think this survey is evidence of diminishing interest overall. Yes, it is the #1 favorite sport among fewer people now, but if more attention is paid to sports overall (a likely proposition), baseball likely garners equal or greater attention as someone's #2 or even #3 today than it could have among many "#1 fans" from years ago.

Put another way, seeing a distribution of #1 favorite sports tells us very little -- I'd say, next to nothing -- about overall interest levels, given the abundance of extra factors and how those factors have changed dramatically over time.

 

Yet, when football saw a modest decline the last decade - it was soccer and basketball that picked up to those numbers and baseball continued to show decline.  Which implies that perhaps that spin is not accurate.  The demographics listed later are also rather interesting.

 

I think it's easy to cite revenues and say "all is well", but I'd say that's also misleading.  No one statistic is going to perfectly answer this kind of question because there are layers and layers to something like this, but there are plenty of arms to this: World Series viewership is down significantly since the '80s.  Even with population increases, the 1980s saw consistent viewership over 30M.  Whereas baseball in the last 10 years has only cracked that number once for a Game 7.  Typically the viewership is half that, closer to the 17-18M range.  Athlete recognition and popularity numbers are not strong for baseball, relative to sports as obscure as MMA or football/hockey where their faces are more likely to be obscured by playing equipment.  The average age of a viewer is 55 years old.  

 

Maybe baseball is just becoming a regional thing and it will thrive in that form.  But I would bet most people would think the sport is stronger when it has a national feel, rather than a regional one. 

[ashbury]

I would love to just send them to someone who would value them, but in my social security years I would like to get something back for them.  Lots of HOF rookie cards like Ripken, Griffey, etc and notebooks and boxes of cards.  Lots of memories in those cards, but I will be moving them in the next few years.  My problem is that I have purchased them, enjoyed them, but never sold any.

Talk to a reputable card dealer in your area. There's a certain date, the exact one which I've forgotten but I think is in the mid 1980s, beyond which cards are of essentially zero market value - supply vastly exceeds present and foreseeable demand, and the dealer will tell you so. This is true of rookie cards, HOFers, etc. While he'll have his own financial motivations, you'll likely find the same answer from each one you ask: recycle them. You won't even get a lowball offer.

 

Cards earlier than the magic date may have value, if in perfect condition. My problem is that my brother and I played with our cards when we were kids. Who knew we had such expensive toys to wreck?

 

Cardboard is heavy and thus expensive to ship. So even secondary solutions such as tarheeltwinsfan suggested aren't really on the table.

 

I wish I knew what to do with mine.

[mikelink45]

 

Talk to a reputable card dealer in your area. There's a certain date, the exact one which I've forgotten but I think is in the mid 1980s, beyond which cards are of essentially zero market value - supply vastly exceeds present and foreseeable demand, and the dealer will tell you so. This is true of rookie cards, HOFers, etc. While he'll have his own financial motivations, you'll likely find the same answer from each one you ask: recycle them. You won't even get a lowball offer.

 

Cards earlier than the magic date may have value, if in perfect condition. My problem is that my brother and I played with our cards when we were kids. Who knew we had such expensive toys to wreck?

 

Cardboard is heavy and thus expensive to ship. So even secondary solutions such as tarheeltwinsfan suggested aren't really on the table.

 

I wish I knew what to do with mine.

This is really helpful.  But I am not sure how many good card stores are left.  Before the industry blew up and the market was flooded there were some good places in the Twin Cities.  But the over production really hit everything and the stores I visited are no longer there.  If anyone has some Twin City options I would love to hear them.  Thanks for your note.