Article: Part 7: Seth's Updated Top 50 Minnesota Twins Prospects (6-10)

[clutterheart]

 

Under

 

(reference to his perpetual home schooling)

 

Why would that matter?  I wouldn't have Kiriloff above some of these guys, but....I am not sure why home schooling is a reason to downgrade a prospect.  

[Dantes929]

 

We have a curveball specialist on the team and I do not hear much excitement since he burst on the seen with a sensational end of the season debut.  But Duffey has not progressed and when TD puts up starting and bullpen reflections his name is conspicuous by its absence. Enlow's curve is a good signature pitch, but he needs a bigger arsenal.

Just my eyeball test here but Duffey was great in 2015.   He had good command of his fastball and a dizzying assortment of speeds and angles with his very sharp breaking curve ball.   Since then his fastball might have the same velocity but not the same control and his curve ball does not seem as sharp and on average seems to be a little more flat.      Kind of like Scott Diamond.   His best year he had a great curve ball.   The next year, probably because of arm problems it just wasn't as sharp.     Saying the batters adjusted to him or that he didn't have enough arsenal just isn't telling the story.    If Duffey pitched in 2016 as well as he did in 2015 he would still be in the rotation, IMO.

 

Its been 30 years since I read Ball Four so I may not remember this perfectly but Sal Maglie was a pitching coach that told Bouton he needed to mix up his pitches more so batters couldn't sit on one pitch.   Bouton pointed out that Maglie threw a lot of curve balls in his day.   Maglie admitted he did.   Bouton asked if batters sat on that pitch and Maglie not seeing the hypocrisy said "Yep, they knew it was coming but they still couldn't touch it"    

[Tom Froemming]

I find it interesting there's been so much support for Lewis Thorpe in the comments of this series, yet at the same time a lot of concern over players who were recently or are currently injured. And nobody seems to disagree with Fernando Romero being in the top 5 despite his injury history and the fact he ended the season clearly not himself.

 

I'm not saying I disagree with the rankings or those concerns, but it's just funny how some guys seem to get the benefit of the doubt while a guy like Kirilloff gets the misfortune of the doubt.

[drjim]

 

I like this group a lot. I'm ok with Kiriloff ahead of Rooker and Baddoo for now because I think Kiriloff has a better overall hit tool which is more important. But it's a small quibble. All three are darn good prospects.

 

I think Baddoo should be #6 (Gordon, Lewis, Romero, Gonsalves, Kiriloff, Baddoo, Rooker, Enlow, Thorpe and Graterol) and I think he'll sneak onto some top 100 lists. I absolutely love his upside. Ceiling wise, I think he and Lewis are the only ones who could sneak into the top 10 down the line.

 

Rooker grew on me and Sickels is a big fan - he might make his top 100. I like that he should be in AA this year and his power looks great. Really nice pick.

 

I'm not sure what to make of Javier yet since he's so far away but the tools are certainly exciting.  

 

As to the pitchers, what does it say to our system depth that Enlow - a top 30 or so draft prospect can barely crack our top 10? We don't have the upside of a few years ago but the current depth is fantastic. I've hung around a few other baseball blogs/forums over the last year and a guy who came up in a few places to try and "steal" from us was Graterol. I was surprised there was such a whisper campaign about him.

 

My concern with Baddoo is it is Appy League numbers. We've been fooled before. Want to see some performance at Cedar Rapids before I get too excited.

[Steve Lein]

Couple guys on here who I probably wouldn't have put as high yet. Not because they don't have the talent to be there, but I like a few others better. Graterol would be bumped for Thorpe, Baddoo probably dropped a spot or two (but potential to move up a lot again in 2018 - he wasn't in any top 20's coming into year). Might have to get Zack Littell in there too.

 

I'd probably have Wander Javier higher as well. He was #6 on TD's list going into 2017. I know this is Seth's ranking and this may not be the case, but I would have at a minimum held his ranking, but definitely not downgraded it after his season in Elizabethton.

 

I'm also not one to drop guys down because of injury in my lists, but due to the seasons some others put up while he was out, I would probably would have bumped down Kirilloff into this section.

 

So, something like Baddoo, Littell, Thorpe, Javier, Kirilloff 10-6 here for me. Couple guys I may bump Baddoo for as well.

 

Definitely looking forward to how the top 5 slot!

[drjim]

 

I find it interesting there's been so much support for Lewis Thorpe in the comments of this series, yet at the same time a lot of concern over players who were recently or are currently injured. And nobody seems to disagree with Fernando Romero being in the top 5 despite his injury history and the fact he ended the season clearly not himself.

 

I'm not saying I disagree with the rankings or those concerns, but it's just funny how some guys seem to get the benefit of the doubt while a guy like Kirilloff gets the misfortune of the doubt.

 

My general rule is that I want to see a return before I give the benefit of the doubt. Returns from injury are not automatic. Thorpe is back, stayed healthy, put in innings, and did well at a decently high level. I want to see Kiriloff hit before I rank him too high.

 

I share your concern on Romero. I think he likely ends up in the bullpen, perhaps by mid-season. I would personally put him behind Gonsalves and Thorpe, and I would have Javier and probably Rooker ahead of him too.

[Steve Lein]

 

I find it interesting there's been so much support for Lewis Thorpe in the comments of this series, yet at the same time a lot of concern over players who were recently or are currently injured. And nobody seems to disagree with Fernando Romero being in the top 5 despite his injury history and the fact he ended the season clearly not himself.

 

I'm not saying I disagree with the rankings or those concerns, but it's just funny how some guys seem to get the benefit of the doubt while a guy like Kirilloff gets the misfortune of the doubt.

 

I think it's more the fact that Thorpe was back this year and pitched well. Being back is step 1 to regaining that trust. Performing again is step 2.

 

Thus, to me at least, Thorpe is 3 steps ahead on this coming back from injury curve than Kirilloff. So yes, he does get the benefit on that.

[Seth Stohs]

 

My concern with Baddoo is it is Appy League numbers. We've been fooled before. Want to see some performance at Cedar Rapids before I get too excited.

 

That may be why he's #8 and not #4. 

[clutterheart]

 

My concern with Baddoo is it is Appy League numbers. We've been fooled before. Want to see some performance at Cedar Rapids before I get too excited.

 

Thats valid.  But Baddoo's has a lot of things in his favor.  Very good peripheral numbers that indicate his numbers were not flukey, draft pedigree and glowing scouting reports.

 

We will see and its very possible he falls off a cliff.  But its Winter time and as of today he looks super.

Edited November 28, 2017 by clutterheart

[Tom Froemming]

 

I want to see Kiriloff hit before I rank him too high.

I get it, but I'd rather wait to see him not hit before I rank him too low (though I don't have him as high as Seth). 

 

I think it's more the fact that Thorpe was back this year and pitched well. Being back is step 1 to regaining that trust. Performing again is step 2.

 

Thus, to me at least, Thorpe is 3 steps ahead on this coming back from injury curve than Kirilloff. So yes, he does get the benefit on that.

But the injury to Kirilloff shouldn't really hurt his prospect stock much, right? A lost year of playing time is unfortunate, but I'm sure he's developed physically over that time. He'll be 20 and I suspect in Cedar Rapids, just like Blankenhorn and Diaz were this past season, so it's not like he's fallen way behind or anything like that. I just don't see that injury as having much impact on his overall ceiling or floor. 

[TNTwinsFan]

I think Rooker belongs in the Top 5. That kid is gonna rake!

[Steve Lein]

 

I get it, but I'd rather wait to see him not hit before I rank him too low (though I don't have him as high as Seth). 

 

But the injury to Kirilloff shouldn't really hurt his prospect stock much, right? A lost year of playing time is unfortunate, but I'm sure he's developed physically over that time. He'll be 20 and I suspect in Cedar Rapids, just like Blankenhorn and Diaz were this past season, so it's not like he's fallen way behind or anything like that. I just don't see that injury as having much impact on his overall ceiling or floor. 

 

No, I wouldn't bump his stock other than what I talked about above. This comment was more about the injury concern part. 

 

It does worry people, and for a lot those players need to earn back that trust. Thorpe (i think) has done so at this point while Kirilloff hasn't even started to.

[nater79a]

 

I find it interesting there's been so much support for Lewis Thorpe in the comments of this series, yet at the same time a lot of concern over players who were recently or are currently injured. And nobody seems to disagree with Fernando Romero being in the top 5 despite his injury history and the fact he ended the season clearly not himself.

 

I'm not saying I disagree with the rankings or those concerns, but it's just funny how some guys seem to get the benefit of the doubt while a guy like Kirilloff gets the misfortune of the doubt.

 

I know.    Isn't it a shame that Miguel Sano had TJ surgery and now has a damaged arm and can't throw BB's over to first base anymore?

Edited November 28, 2017 by nater79a

[snap4birds]

 

Its been 30 years since I read Ball Four so I may not remember this perfectly but Sal Maglie was a pitching coach that told Bouton he needed to mix up his pitches more so batters couldn't sit on one pitch.   Bouton pointed out that Maglie threw a lot of curve balls in his day.   Maglie admitted he did.   Bouton asked if batters sat on that pitch and Maglie not seeing the hypocrisy said "Yep, they knew it was coming but they still couldn't touch it"    

Any reference to Ball Four earns a "Like" from me.  I love that book!  

[snap4birds]

MiLB.com lists Graterol as 6'-1", 180.  Does that qualify as "big & strong"?  For a pitcher, I'd figure that as 6'-4", 220 and up....

He's 19, so I'd doubt he grows taller, but he'll surely add some weight/strength.  But the plane a 6'-1" pitcher operates on is different from 6'-4" and up.

 

Looks like some high ceilings in this grouping.  

[nicksaviking]

 

I think Rooker belongs in the Top 5. That kid is gonna rake!

 

I think Rooker deserves all Top 5 spots. My list goes:

 

1: Brent Rooker

2: Brent Rooker

3: Brent Rooker

4: Brent Rooker

5: Brent Rooker

6: Nick Gordon

7: Brent Rooker

[Dantes929]

 

My general rule is that I want to see a return before I give the benefit of the doubt. Returns from injury are not automatic. Thorpe is back, stayed healthy, put in innings, and did well at a decently high level. I want to see Kiriloff hit before I rank him too high.

 

I share your concern on Romero. I think he likely ends up in the bullpen, perhaps by mid-season. I would personally put him behind Gonsalves and Thorpe, and I would have Javier and probably Rooker ahead of him too.

This is why I am so high on Alex Cobb.  In his first full season back he has ERA and QS% very similar to Darvish but in a tougher division and league.   That is without the feel of his best pitch having come back yet.     To me he is much more attractive since it is not only money that would get him here rather than prospects but much less money than Darvish.    Similar stats  if your goal is run prevention and yet Darvish is considered ace and Cobb considered middle rotation at best.   I don't get it.   I would rather have Darvish but not by that much.

[Seth Stohs]

 

MiLB.com lists Graterol as 6'-1", 180.  Does that qualify as "big & strong"?  For a pitcher, I'd figure that as 6'-4", 220 and up....

He's 19, so I'd doubt he grows taller, but he'll surely add some weight/strength.  But the plane a 6'-1" pitcher operates on is different from 6'-4" and up.

 

Looks like some high ceilings in this grouping.  

 

The Phil Miller article in Baseball American on Graterol said that he gained 60 pounds of muscle since signing. He wasn't 120 when he signed... He may not get taller, but he's strong. 

[caninatl04]

 

#9 missed a bit of time, though the season is fairly short, so it would have amounted to about two months if he had been with a full-season team at the time.

 

#8 - Baddoo hasn't missed any time.

 

#7 - Graterol did miss from June 2015 through the 2016 season.

You are right, and I am wrong.  I saw "Baddoo" and thought "Kiriloff".  Thank you for the correction.

[gagu]

Note that the previous SEC Triple Crown winner was Rafael Palmeiro. A different style, but it would be nice to see Rooker bringing that kind of production.

[drjim]

This is why I am so high on Alex Cobb. In his first full season back he has ERA and QS% very similar to Darvish but in a tougher division and league. That is without the feel of his best pitch having come back yet. To me he is much more attractive since it is not only money that would get him here rather than prospects but much less money than Darvish. Similar stats if your goal is run prevention and yet Darvish is considered ace and Cobb considered middle rotation at best. I don't get it. I would rather have Darvish but not by that much.

I agree, and for the same reasons.

[Siehbiscuit]

The best part about so many having different opinions is most that can and have a provided evidence for their reasoning (minus the homeschooling jab) and it makes sense. Baddoo has a huge ceiling. Rooker has amazing power and he's close to the Majors. Kirilloff has a pedigree and a great hit tool. Thorpe, Enlow, etc, etc.

 

The guy that I LOVE is Javier. I guy that no one has questioned his ability to stick at short and has shown a great stick so far. He may not ever have the pop of Royce Lewis, but if his defense is much better, it may be hard to separate them in a few years.

 

I wouldn't be shocked to see the Twins have three SS's (Gordon, Lewis and Javier) all listed as top 25 prospects at some point in their minor league careers.

[Whammy]

Did I miss when Rooker hit like Babe Ruth?

 

It's such an incredibly small sample, for a college graduate, in leagues he should dominate.... and he still struck out 26% of the time.

 

I mean, I like him as a prospect, but I feel like there's serious Rooker overhyping going on here (and yes... I know the "rooker is my whole top 5" post was a joke)

[Tom Froemming]

 

Did I miss when Rooker hit like Babe Ruth?

In the FSL. I wasn't all that impressed with him pounding on kids in the Appy League, but what he did with the Miracle was unbelievable. There were only 15 hitters who had more HRs in the FSL, and Rooker was only there for 40 games. I shared this on Twitter yesterday ...

 

PA/HR for Fort Myers

14.7 Brent Rooker, 2017

15.2 Miguel Sano, 2013

20.4 David Ortiz, 1997

 

The strikeouts are a concern, especially since they didn't come with a gaudy walk rate, but the power is so hot. The guy hit 41 homers in 129 games total last year between college and the minors.

 

I get it if some people don't buy into the hype, especially given the small sample and his apparent lack of positive defensive value at this point, but I'm allowing myself to get excited already.

[gunnarthor]

 

Did I miss when Rooker hit like Babe Ruth?

 

It's such an incredibly small sample, for a college graduate, in leagues he should dominate.... and he still struck out 26% of the time.

 

I mean, I like him as a prospect, but I feel like there's serious Rooker overhyping going on here (and yes... I know the "rooker is my whole top 5" post was a joke)

I think Tom covered it pretty well. He's a good prospect but he's not top 5. He might slip into a back end top 100 somewhere (Sickels). He wasn't a top of the draft pick. He's just a good pick playing well with one really good tool and some evidence, so far, that he might be able to hit at higher levels. That's all very encouraging. 

 

You should look at how he's doing vs. other college bats taken in similar spots in recent drafts. Rooker looks very good.

[Bob Sacamento]

 

Enlow probably needs to regain some of his velocity to move up too much more, but the curveball is exciting. 

 

I think he could start the season in Cedar Rapids... Maybe more likely, he starts at EST and comes up to Cedar Rapids in early June or something like that. 

I personally saw Enlow throw on 3 occasions in the GCL and NEVER once did I see him throw a FB under 93 mph.  In fact by the end of the season he was sitting 94-95 mph and touching 96 mph.  His power breaking ball sits at 84-86 mph with tight sharp break.  And while that changeup is developing, he throws a great tumble on it at 88-89 mph.  But he needs to bulk up to continue the grind of a full season as the kid is all arms and legs.

[Seth Stohs]

 

In the FSL. I wasn't all that impressed with him pounding on kids in the Appy League, but what he did with the Miracle was unbelievable. There were only 15 hitters who had more HRs in the FSL, and Rooker was only there for 40 games. I shared this on Twitter yesterday ...

 

PA/HR for Fort Myers

14.7 Brent Rooker, 2017

15.2 Miguel Sano, 2013

20.4 David Ortiz, 1997

 

The strikeouts are a concern, especially since they didn't come with a gaudy walk rate, but the power is so hot. The guy hit 41 homers in 129 games total last year between college and the minors.

 

I get it if some people don't buy into the hype, especially given the small sample and his apparent lack of positive defensive value at this point, but I'm allowing myself to get excited already.

 

Of course, Sano was 19-years-old for the first month+ that he was with Ft. Myers. Ortiz was 20. 

 

It's a good rate stat to look at, but it does need some context. Of course, Rooker only had about 5 weeks of pro ball under his belt when he did it whereas Sano and Ortiz were in their fourth seasons as professionals. 

 

Rooker is a terrific prospect, and his age doesn't bother me. He was a four-year college guy and he was in Ft. Myers five weeks into his pro career. As I've written before... that's very unusual... It was impressive enough for me to rank him 6th, ahead of four younger players that probably have a higher ceiling. So it's fair to say I'm pretty high on Rooker. 

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

You know, I find it kind of interesting/funny when we debate the Twins system and say it's down...just a bit at least...because it may be lacking a few "stud" prospects like Sano or Buxton and maybe Berrios. But when I look through this list, I'm almost surprised how deep the system is in quality and potential ceiling despite seemingly missing those "special" prospects.

And yet, when you examine this deep list, there are some guys that just jump out at you and make you wonder if there might not be a couple of those "stud" prospects a year from now. Especially some of the lower level guys like Lewis and the kids listed here.

I have to be honest, if I were a potential trade partner of the Twins, while I might have to wait longer to see them develop and arrive, as much as we talk about Romero, Gonsalves, Thorpe and Gordon, I'm not so sure I wouldn't be looking at players at the A level as the guys I'd really want back in return.

 

several of the guys in this section could be the "can't miss" types next year at this time.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Under

 

(reference to his perpetual home schooling)

Honestly Thrylos, between this and your rather public dislike for Dozier, it seems rather obvious that your dislike for the religious type tends to overly influence your perception of a player (in a negative way).

 

I'm not quite sure where I'd rank Kirilloff, but he would without question be in the top 10, even with the injury... at least for this year. Give the kid a shot.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Did I miss when Rooker hit like Babe Ruth?

 

It's such an incredibly small sample, for a college graduate, in leagues he should dominate.... and he still struck out 26% of the time.

 

I mean, I like him as a prospect, but I feel like there's serious Rooker overhyping going on here (and yes... I know the "rooker is my whole top 5" post was a joke)

 

Given the SSS, it's probably worth noting the context of the Ks. He started out both of his stints with poor production and high Ks. While he still struck out once producing, it's worth nothing that he adjusted to both leagues and did quite well after.